高铜价抑制需求

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全球库存分化明显 沪铜以高位震荡为主
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-10-20 23:15
Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a tightening supply situation, with expectations of high-level fluctuations in prices due to macroeconomic uncertainties and strong fundamental support [1][5]. Group 1: Supply and Production - Chile's copper production in August fell sharply by 9.9% year-on-year to 424,000 tons, marking the largest decline in over two years, with Codelco's output down 25% [1]. - Peru's copper production also decreased by 1.6% year-on-year to 242,700 tons in August [1]. - The temporary shutdown of Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine has exacerbated the global copper supply shortage, with some areas expected to restart in mid-Q4, while others may not resume until 2026 [1]. - Goldman Sachs revised its 2025 global copper market forecast from a surplus of 10,500 tons to a shortage of 5,550 tons [1]. Group 2: Domestic Production and Demand - China's electrolytic copper production in September was 1.121 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.31% but a year-on-year increase of 11.62% [2]. - The operating rate of domestic electrolytic copper sample plants was 84.06%, down 3.91 percentage points month-on-month [2]. - In October, production is expected to decline to 1.083 million tons, with a further decrease anticipated due to maintenance at six smelting plants affecting 1.4 million tons of capacity [2]. - The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products in September reached 485,000 tons, the highest monthly figure this year, while cumulative imports from January to September totaled 4.019 million tons, down 1.7% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of October 17, global copper inventories across three major exchanges totaled 560,900 tons, an increase of 28,500 tons from the end of September [3]. - COMEX copper inventories have risen for seven consecutive months, reaching 345,600 short tons, while LME inventories have decreased to 137,200 tons [3]. - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventories have been accumulating, with a total of 186,600 tons reported as of October 20, reflecting a weekly increase of 14,600 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 32,800 tons [3]. Group 4: Economic and Market Outlook - Domestic copper cable enterprises' operating rates increased by 3.38 percentage points to 61.91% week-on-week, although this is a 15.02% decline year-on-year [4]. - High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, leading to a focus on just-in-time purchasing [4]. - The domestic economy is under short-term pressure, with consumption and investment growth slowing, but there are structural highlights in domestic demand [4]. - The overall expectation is for copper prices to maintain high-level fluctuations, with key support levels for the main contract around 84,000 to 84,200 yuan per ton [5].