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期铜回落,稍早受供应担忧推动触及16个月最高【10月8日LME收盘】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 01:04
10月8日(周三),伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜价回落,受累于美元走强,稍早因交易商担心矿山生产 持续中断可能造成短缺而触及16个月最高。 铝价亦触及16个月最高水平,因可用库存下滑。 伦敦时间10月8日17:00(北京时间10月9日00:00),LME三个月期铜下跌92美元,或0.85%,收报每吨 10,669.0美元。盘中一度触及每吨10,815美元的去年5月22日以来最高。 国际铜业研究组织(ICSG)周三预计,2025年全球精炼铜市场将供应过剩约17.8万吨,2026年将短缺15万 吨。今年4月,该组织预测今年将过剩28.9万吨,2026年将过剩20.9万吨。 "所有的供应干扰都使得市场吃紧,"WisdomTree大宗商品策略师Nitesh Shah称。"矿商在新勘探方面几 乎没有什么动作,甚至开采新矿也变得更加困难,因此这种供应紧张的状况将会持续。" | | 10月8日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 10.669.00 + | -92.00 ↓ -0.85% | | ...
基本面转好,盘面偏强震荡
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 11:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of copper are still tight with resilient demand. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is decreasing due to the improvement in peak - season demand and increased demand before the double festivals. The copper market is expected to show a strong - side oscillatory trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong - side oscillation during the day. The leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and Trump said the call was "very productive", with plans for a meeting during the APEC and a visit to China early next year. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the US dollar index has shifted upward. As of September 19, the spot TC was - 40.64 dollars per dry ton and RC was - 4.05 cents per pound, remaining weakly stable. Many smelters had maintenance in September, and small and medium - sized smelters are under profit pressure. The supply of refined copper will remain tight. The SMM China electrolytic copper output in August was 1.1715 million tons, a 0.24% decrease from the previous month and a 15.59% increase year - on - year. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will significantly decline, and the electrolytic copper output in September is expected to drop sharply. The downstream demand has marginally improved, but the overall purchasing sentiment is cautious [1] Periodic and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved higher, with a strong - side oscillation during the day, and the closing price was 80,160 yuan per ton. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 60 yuan per ton, and in South China was 70 yuan per ton. On September 19, 2025, the LME official price was 9,982 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 78 dollars per ton [3] Supply Side - As of September 19, the latest data showed that the spot TC was - 40.64 dollars per dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.05 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory was 29,900 tons, a decrease of 1,945 tons from the previous period. As of September 18, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,400 tons, remaining the same as the previous period. The LME copper inventory was 147,700 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory was 315,200 short tons, an increase of 2,364 short tons from the previous period [10]
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加+E4:K30-20250805
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 06:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The weakening US job market has heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the traditional domestic consumption off - season suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad is oscillating upwards. As a result, there is still room for the Shanghai copper price to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions. They should pay attention to the support levels around 76,000 - 78,000 and the resistance levels around 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, the support levels around 3,300 - 9,500 and the resistance levels around 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper, and the support levels around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance levels around 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper. (View score: -1) [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,330, down 70 from the previous day; the trading volume was 62,389 lots, a decrease of 18,554 lots; the open interest was 163,558 lots, a decrease of 4,113 lots; the inventory was 20,348 tons, down 1 ton; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,420, up 90 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was 90, up 160; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was - 55, down 40; in North China, it remained at - 120; in East China, it was 30, down 5 [2]. - **Spread (Near - Month vs. Far - Month)**: The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 20, up 30; between the first and the second continuous contracts was 0, down 10; between the second and the third continuous contracts was 80, up 20 [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 4, 2025, was 9,708.5, up 75.5; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 139,575 tons; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 52.73, down 3.48; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 139.23, up 3.70; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.0682, down 0.07 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 4, 2025, was 4.456, up 0.03; the total inventory was 261,180, an increase of 3,265 [2]. Industry News - **Corporate News**: Mitsubishi Materials Corporation is considering reducing the copper concentrate processing volume at its Onahama Smelting Co., Ltd. After the scheduled equipment maintenance from October to November this year, it plans to reduce copper concentrate processing through partial facility shutdowns while maintaining the processing of electronic waste, aiming to increase the utilization ratio of recycled materials and profitability. The 2025 cathode copper production forecast will be announced separately (Onahama's copper rough - smelting capacity is 230,000 tons) [2]. - **Regional News**: Peruvian informal miners have suspended negotiations with the government and may resume protests due to disagreements. The government refused to adjust the August 17 deadline and required miners to transfer explosives to a formal "powder magazine". About 20,000 miners who cannot meet the deadline will be excluded from the government's work regularization plan [2]. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: European high - quality scrap steel export restrictions, uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations, negative price differences between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper, and the closure of the scrap copper import window may lead to a decrease in domestic scrap copper production (import) in August. Many copper smelters around the world are facing production adjustments, such as the shutdown of Glencore's PASIAR copper smelter in the Philippines, the suspension of Zhongkuang Resources' Isunebag plant in Namibia, and the suspension of Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile. Some projects are under construction or planned to increase production, like Jiangxi Hongyuan's second - phase project and the 200,000 - ton high - purity copper project in Baotou [3]. - **Demand Side**: The traditional domestic consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand [3]. Inventory Situation The inventory of electrolytic copper in domestic bonded areas has decreased compared to last week, while the domestic social inventory, LME inventory, and COMEX copper inventory have all increased [3]. Investment Strategy Investors are recommended to hold their previous short positions and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper as mentioned above [3].
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加+E4:K30-20250805
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 06:10
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, but the traditional domestic consumption off - season has suppressed downstream demand. The total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad has been rising, indicating that there is still room for the Shanghai copper price to fall. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On August 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,330 yuan, down 70 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 62,389 lots, a decrease of 18,554 lots; the open interest was 163,558 lots, a decrease of 4,113 lots; the inventory was 20,348 tons, a decrease of 1 ton; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,420 yuan, up 90 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai copper basis was 90 yuan, up 160 yuan from the previous day. The spot discounts in Guangzhou, North China, and East China were -55 yuan, -120 yuan, and 30 yuan respectively, with changes of -40 yuan, 0 yuan, and -5 yuan [2]. - The spreads between near - month and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper showed different changes. For example, the spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract was 20 yuan, up 30 yuan [2]. - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 4, 2025, was 9,708.5 US dollars, up 75.5 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 139,575 tons [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 4, 2025, was 4.456 US dollars, up 0.03 US dollars from the previous day, and the total inventory was 261,180 tons, an increase of 3,265 tons [2]. Industry News - Mitsubishi Materials Corporation is considering reducing the copper concentrate processing volume of its Onahama Smelting Co., Ltd. After the scheduled equipment maintenance from October to November this year, it plans to reduce the copper concentrate processing volume through partial facility shutdowns while maintaining the processing volume of electronic waste to improve the utilization rate of recycled materials and profitability [2]. - Non - formal miners in Peru have suspended negotiations with the government and may resume protests due to differences in the negotiations. The government refuses to adjust the August 17 deadline and requires miners to transfer explosives to formal "powder magazines" [2]. Supply and Demand Situation - European high - quality scrap steel exports are restricted, and Chinese importers can only purchase steel shot or brass. Uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations has led to a low direct import of US scrap copper by traders. The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper has weakened the economic viability of scrap copper, closing the scrap copper import window [2][3]. - Some copper smelters at home and abroad are facing production adjustments. For example, Glencore's PASIAR copper smelter in the Philippines has stopped production, and Zhongkuang Resources' Isunebag plant in Namibia has suspended production due to a shortage of copper concentrate supply [3]. - Some new projects are under construction or planned to be put into production. For example, Jianggang Hongyuan's second - phase project with an annual output of 150,000 tons of cathode copper started construction in Guixi at the end of March, and the 200,000 - ton high - purity copper project in Baotou Jinshan Economic Development Zone started construction on June 24 [3]. Investment Strategy - Due to the expected increase in domestic crude copper production and the possible decrease in electrolytic copper production and import in August, and the increase in total electrolytic copper inventory at home and abroad, it is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3].
铜周报:铜价延续上涨趋势-20250803
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 01:45
Core Views - Low inventory and supply contradictions support the bottom, but the easing of tariff disturbances and the seasonal weakening of consumption will cause Shanghai copper to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to domestic policy expectations and the rhythm of inventory accumulation [5] - The inventory of copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has dropped to 72,543 tons, and the recovery of import demand supports the tightness of the spot market [4] - The port inventory of copper concentrate has dropped to 560,900 tons, and the processing fee remains at a low level of -$42.63 per ton, increasing the pressure on smelting plants to cut production [4] - The United States only imposes a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products, exempting raw materials such as cathode copper. The decline in the COMEX premium has dragged down LME copper [4] - The growth rate of power grid investment has slowed down, and air conditioner production has entered the off-season. The end-users' acceptance of high prices is limited, which restricts the consumption elasticity [4] Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of the main Shanghai copper contract is 78,400 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1.07%, a position of 167,671 lots, and a trading volume of 80,943 lots [6] - The latest price of international copper is 69,530 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1.18%, a position of 4,914 lots, and a trading volume of 4,289 lots [6] - The latest price of LME copper for three months is $9,803 per ton, with a weekly decline of 0.96%, a position of 239,014 lots, and a trading volume of 11,075 lots [6] - The latest price of COMEX copper is $566.95 per pound, with a weekly decline of 1.71%, a position of 104,219 lots, and a trading volume of 25,868 lots [6] Copper Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous 1 copper is 78,330 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1,120 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.41% [10] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 78,985 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 720 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 0.9% [10] - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Storage is 78,890 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 620 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 0.78% [10] - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous is 79,120 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 710 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 0.89% [12] - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous premium is 110 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 130 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 54.17% [12] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium is 85 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 80 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 48.48% [12] - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Storage premium is 85 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 65 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 43.33% [12] - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous premium is 115 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 60 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 34.29% [12] - The latest price of the LME copper (spot/three months) premium is -$51.71 per ton, with a weekly increase of $16.53 and a weekly decline rate of 24.22% [12] - The latest price of the LME copper (three months/15 months) premium is -$92.25 per ton, with a weekly increase of $10.37 and a weekly decline rate of 10.11% [12] Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The latest price of copper import profit and loss is -249.88 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 232.62 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 48.21% [13] - The latest price of copper concentrate TC is -$42.75 per ton, with a weekly increase of $0.42 and a weekly decline rate of 0.97% [13] - The latest copper-aluminum ratio is 3.7801, with a weekly decline of 0.0635 and a weekly decline rate of 1.65% [13] - The latest refined scrap price difference is 805.43 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 35.31 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 4.2% [13] Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total warehouse receipt of Shanghai copper is 18,083 tons, with a weekly decline of 7,424 tons and a weekly decline rate of 29.11% [17] - The total warehouse receipt of international copper is 3,313 tons, with a weekly decline of 1,354 tons and a weekly decline rate of 29.01% [17] - The inventory of Shanghai copper is 73,423 tons, with a weekly decline of 11,133 tons and a weekly decline rate of 13.17% [17] - The registered warehouse receipt of LME copper is 108,225 tons, with a weekly decline of 4,375 tons and a weekly decline rate of 3.89% [17] - The cancelled warehouse receipt of LME copper is 19,400 tons, with a weekly increase of 7,150 tons and a weekly increase rate of 58.37% [17] - The inventory of LME copper is 127,625 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,775 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.22% [19] - The registered warehouse receipt of COMEX copper is 109,453 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,404 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.3% [19] - The unregistered warehouse receipt of COMEX copper is 143,978 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,246 tons and a weekly increase rate of 6.08% [19] - The inventory of COMEX copper is 253,431 tons, with a weekly increase of 9,650 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.96% [19] - The port inventory of copper ore is 409,000 tons, with a weekly decline of 48,000 tons and a weekly decline rate of 10.5% [19] - The social inventory is 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [19] Copper Midstream Production (Monthly) - In June 2025, the monthly output of refined copper was 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. The cumulative output was 7.363 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [21] - In June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.214 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. The cumulative output was 11.765 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [21] Copper Midstream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of refined copper rods was 15.84 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 62.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.18 percentage points, and a year-on-year increase of 1.78 percentage points [23] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of scrap copper rods was 8.19 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 32.01%, a month-on-month increase of 3.08 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.98 percentage points [23] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of copper strips was 3.59 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.55 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.22 percentage points [24] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of copper rods was 2.2865 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 51.52%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.97 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.37 percentage points [24] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of copper tubes was 2.783 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.25%, a month-on-month decrease of 10.35 percentage points, and a year-on-year increase of 1.01 percentage points [24] Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrate was 2.34969 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The cumulative import volume was 14.757457 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 68,548 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The cumulative import volume was 382,709 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 300,506 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The cumulative import volume was 1,646,147 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 183,244 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8%. The cumulative import volume was 1,145,405 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 460,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. The cumulative import volume was 2,630,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [26]
路透调查:预计2025年铜市场过剩4万吨;2026年的赤字预测为55530吨。
news flash· 2025-07-29 15:04
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the copper market is expected to experience a surplus of 40,000 tons in 2025, followed by a projected deficit of 55,530 tons in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The anticipated surplus in 2025 suggests potential downward pressure on copper prices during that year [1] - The subsequent deficit forecast for 2026 may lead to upward price pressures as demand outstrips supply [1]
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减,国内外电解铜总库存量连续累积-20250717
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 02:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Overseas copper mines face production or transportation disruptions, but due to the Trump administration's significant tariff hikes on multiple countries and the emergence of the traditional off - season in the domestic market, the global total inventory of electrolytic copper continues to accumulate. As a result, the price of Shanghai copper may still have room to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to specific support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 16, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,980, a decrease of 110 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 60,926 lots, a decrease of 20,740 lots; the open interest was 160,457 lots, a decrease of 9,473 lots; the inventory was 50,242 tons, an increase of 109 tons. The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 78,060, an increase of 65 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was 80, an increase of 175 compared to the previous day; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 60, an increase of 55; in North China, it was - 140, a decrease of 30; in East China, it was - 40, a decrease of 40 [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 16, 2025, was 9,637, a decrease of 20.5 compared to the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 121,000 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 16, 2025, was 5.5185, a decrease of 0.01 compared to the previous day, and the total inventory was 239,435 tons, an increase of 2,981 tons [2]. 3.2 Important News - **Macro - economic**: The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to $500 billion by the end of July and September, raising funds by increasing the weekly standard Treasury bond issuance scale. The number of new non - farm payrolls in the US in June was 147,000, higher than expected and the previous value. The annual CPI rate in June was 2.7%, in line with expectations but higher than the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September/December [2]. - **Upstream**: A blasting fume poisoning accident occurred at the Luojiahe Copper Mine of Wulong Industrial Co., Ltd. in Yuanqu County, Yuncheng, Shanxi, resulting in three deaths. Miners' protests at some mines were suspended until July 18. The China copper concentrate import index was negative and increased compared to last week. The export of high - quality refined copper in Europe was restricted. The domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper price difference was negative, and the import window for refined copper was open. Some smelters had production suspensions or capacity adjustments. The weekly processing fees for copper in North (South) China decreased (increased) [2]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fees for refined copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China decreased compared to last week. Some copper rod enterprises planned to reduce production to cut inventory in July, but new orders improved slightly. The capacity utilization rates of copper products such as copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper wrapping wires, steel strips, and copper tubes showed different trends. The capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase month - on - month. The traditional off - season and Sino - US trade frictions may lead to a month - on - month decline in the capacity utilization rate, production, and import volume of domestic copper enterprises in July [2]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to hold their previous short positions cautiously, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper around 76,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000, London copper around 4,300 - 5,600 and 9,800 - 10,000, and US copper around 5.0 - 6.2 and 6.0 - 7.0 [2].
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减,国内外电解铜总库存量连续累积-20250715
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 02:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The global electrolytic copper total inventory continues to accumulate due to factors such as disturbances in overseas copper mine production or transportation, the significant impact of the traditional domestic consumption off - season, and Trump's government's tariff policies. Copper prices may still have downward space. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,430, down 30 from the previous day; the trading volume was 79,136 lots, down 2,530; the open interest was 172,204 lots, down 6,478. The average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 78,720, down 265 [2]. - **London Copper Futures**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic) on July 14 was 9,643.5, down 19.5. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 109,625 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.5255, down 0.1. The total inventory was 236,454 tons, an increase of 5,311 tons [2]. Industry News - **CSPT Meeting**: In the second - quarter general manager's office meeting in 2025, CSPT decided not to set a reference figure for the third - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee due to the serious distortion and unsustainability of the current spot market processing fee [2]. - **US Treasury Plan**: The US Treasury plans to raise its cash reserves to $500 billion by the end of July and September through increasing the scale of weekly standard - fixed - rate bond auctions, which helps reduce market shocks [2]. Upstream Situation - **Copper Concentrate**: China's copper concentrate import index is negative but has increased compared to last week. The world's (China's) port copper concentrate departure (loading, inventory) volume has changed compared to last week. Due to the Sino - US trade dispute, the willingness of traders to accept US scrap copper is low. However, the negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper makes scrap copper economically viable, and the scrap copper import window may open, but the domestic scrap copper production (import) volume in July may decrease month - on - month, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - **Smelting Plants**: Some smelting plants have production problems. For example, Glencore's EKSAR copper smelter in the Philippines has stopped production, and Zhongkuang Resources' Suned copper smelter in Namibia has suspended production due to a shortage of copper concentrate supply. Some new smelting plants are expected to be put into production, such as the Kanoa - Tabula smelter in the Congo (Kinshasa) and some domestic projects [3]. Downstream Situation - **Copper Rod**: The processing fee of copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China has decreased compared to last week. Some copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory due to high finished - product inventories, but new orders have slightly improved. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod and recycled copper rod enterprises has increased compared to last week [3]. - **Copper Wire and Cable**: The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable has increased compared to last week. The raw material inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased, while the finished - product inventory has increased. The order volume and capacity utilization rate of copper cable wrapping have increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days of cable - wrapping enterprises have decreased [3]. - **Other Products**: The capacity utilization rate of copper plate and strip has increased, but the downstream demand is weak due to the traditional consumption off - season. The capacity utilization rate of steel pipes has decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of brass rods has decreased. The capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase or decrease [3]. Investment Strategy Investors are advised to hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (76,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 83,000), London copper (9,400 - 9,600 and 9,900 - 10,200), and US copper (5.0 - 6.3 and 6.0 - 7.0) [3].
美国铜关税将引发最后一轮抢运潮
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 02:26
Group 1 - The U.S. is expected to accelerate copper imports ahead of the implementation of a new 50% tariff on all copper imports, as announced by President Trump [1] - The new tariff is anticipated to take effect around July 31 or August 1, according to U.S. Commerce Secretary [1] - Traders are moving copper from global warehouses to the U.S. to capitalize on the current price premium of approximately $2,600 per ton [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that U.S. copper imports will decline in the months following the tariff implementation as users deplete their inventories [2] - Citigroup forecasts that copper prices outside the U.S. will drop to $8,800 per ton in the next three months, although any decline may be limited by ongoing global supply constraints [2] - A mining intelligence analyst suggests that while copper prices are under pressure, they may rebound after the tariff is finalized due to tight fundamentals in the short term [2]
铜产业链周度报告-20250627
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 12:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term copper market may continue to fluctuate strongly, and the subsequent performance of downstream consumption still needs to be monitored [50]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased to 236,000, lower than the expected 245,000, while the number of continued jobless claims rose to 1,974,000, the highest since November 2021 [5]. - The annualized quarterly rate of the real GDP final value in the US in the first quarter decreased by 0.5%, higher than the expected decrease of 0.2%, showing the first contraction in three years, and personal consumption final value only increased by 0.5% [5]. - Geopolitical conflicts between Israel and Iran eased, and the impact on copper supply and transportation weakened. Trump planned to arrange a Fed chair before Powell's term ended and promote rapid interest - rate cuts [5]. - The basic copper index decreased compared with last week. The supply - side disturbances of copper smelting continued, and the domestic copper concentrate processing fee remained low. The estimated output of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The domestic electrolytic copper inventory decreased, and the low inventory continued to support the short - term copper price [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The domestic TC maintained a low - level weak quotation, the spot premium strengthened, the US dollar index weakened significantly, and the geopolitical risk eased [8][9][12]. - **Bearish factors**: The demand performance was weak [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply - side data** - China's copper ore and concentrate imports in May were 2.3952 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.55% and a year - on - year increase of 6.61%. The deliveries from Chile and Peru both declined [15]. - As of the week of June 20, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.8 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 0.64 US dollars per dry ton compared with last week. The domestic copper concentrate processing fee remained low [19]. - In May, the actual domestic electrolytic copper output was 1.1417 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 16.33%. The output in June is expected to remain high [21]. - China's scrap copper imports in May were 185,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53%. The deliveries from Thailand, Japan, and the US all declined [24]. - **Demand - side data** - As of June 26, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around - 900 yuan per ton, which was beneficial to refined copper consumption [28]. - In May, the domestic copper strip output was 210,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.46% but still higher than the same period last year [32]. - In May, the domestic refined copper rod output was 840,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.78% and a year - on - year increase of 23.43%. The domestic recycled copper rod output was 201,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 7.82% [36]. - In May, China's total automobile exports were 551,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.5%. Among them, new - energy vehicle exports were 212,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year increase of 120% [40]. - **Inventory and Premium Data** - The LME copper inventory continued to decline last week, the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1.1% in the week of June 20, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on June 26 decreased by 100 tons compared with June 23 [43]. - On June 26, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was around 70 yuan per ton, showing a decline, while the LME 0 - 3 spot premium increased significantly [47]. 3.4后市研判 The short - term copper market may continue to fluctuate strongly, and the subsequent performance of downstream consumption still needs to be monitored [50].