冠通期货研究报告 --沪铜周报 研究咨询部王静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2025年12月22日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 行情分析 2 ➢ 宏观方面：11月CPI与核心CPI同比分别降至2.7%与2.6%，显著低于市场预期，但受十月份政府停摆影响数据缺失，市场普遍认为本次数据参 考意义低，11月非农新增就业增加6.4万人，但失业率升至4.6%。 ➢ 供给方面： 12月19日，中国铜冶炼厂代表与国际矿业巨头Antofagasta敲定2026年铜精矿长单加工费（Benchmark）为0美元/吨、0美分/磅， 较2025年的21.25美元/吨、2.125美分/磅实现历史性"归零"。11月SMM中国电解铜产量110.31万吨，环比增加1.15万吨，环比增幅1.05%， 同比增幅9.75%。预计12月电解铜产量环比增加6.57万吨，增幅5.96%，同比增幅6.69%。 ➢ 需求方面：据SMM数据显示预计12月铜管企业开工率为67.09%，铜管开工不及市场预期主要系空调排产下降，高铜价抑制下游原料短的采购。 11月份精铜制杆企 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --沪铜周报 研究咨询部王静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2025年12月15日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 行情分析 2 ➢ 宏观方面：上周美联储如期降息25个bp，虽然目前26年降息预期尚不明朗，但美元指数依旧如期下挫，支撑金属市场。而国内宏观重大会议 同样释放了宽松货币政策的积极信号，整体周内宏观市场均提振铜价格。2025年11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，核心CPI同比上涨1.2%；PPI同比下 降2.2%，环比上涨0.1%。 ➢ 供给方面：上周随着沪铜价格大范围拉涨，而废铜企业呈现谨慎态度，精费价差走扩。后续770号文明确后，相关地区安徽江西等生产积极性 应有转变，或将增加废铜供给。11月SMM中国电解铜产量110.31万吨，环比增加1.15万吨，环比增幅1.05%，同比增幅9.75%。1-11月累计产量 同比增加128.94万吨，增幅为11.76%。SMM预计12月电解铜产量环比增加6.57万吨，增幅5.96%，同比增幅6.69%。 ➢ 需求方面：本周铜价上涨，铜材利润受挤压，铜板带生产积极性弱 ...

高盛集团为有关铜前景的辩论注入了一些谨慎声音，称其突破每吨1.1万美元的涨势将被证明是短暂 的，因为仍有超多的金属可以满足全球需求。 包括奥蕾莉亚·沃尔瑟姆（Aurelia Waltham）在内的该行分析师在一份报告中写道："近期铜价上涨大部 分是基于对未来市场紧张的预期，而非当前的基本面。我们预计当前突破1.1万美元的情况不会持续。" 由于担忧在全球关税征收前，铜正被抢运至美国，导致全球供应紧缩，铜价周三在伦敦金属交易所飙升 至每吨11540美元的创纪录水平。大宗商品贸易公司摩科瑞能源集团（Mercuria Energy Group Ltd.）上周 警告供应出现"极端"错配，加剧了此轮行情。 亚太地区矿业股周四跟随铜价上涨。香港上市的洛阳钼业（CMOC Group Ltd.）上涨6%，澳大利亚上市 的Capstone Copper涨幅高达8.2%，其他矿业股亦普遍上涨。 尽管高盛上调了对明年上半年的铜价预测，并表示美国的关税贸易将支撑价格，但该行暗示，通过提高 区域溢价和收紧伦敦金属交易所价差，可以避免美国以外地区库存"严重偏低"的情况。 高盛表示，今年需求将比供应少约50万吨，而铜短缺要到2029年才会出 ...

贵金属市场情绪暂时退潮，电解铜期价短期回落 一、日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：12月02日，SHFE主力合约价格小幅回落至88710元/吨， 较前一日下跌0.57%；LME价格同步下探至11145美元/吨，跌幅0.78%。基差 方面，平水铜升水走强至45元/吨，LME(0-3)升水维持69.18美元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：LME持仓量于12月01日小幅扩大至334442手，但BC铜合约成 交量显著收缩至7607手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：据12月01日IEA分析，铜市场面临结构性短缺风险，主因矿石品 位下降和项目周期延长；卡莫阿-卡库拉冶炼厂于11月21日投产，将逐步消 化库存；沙特开启矿产勘探招标，但短期供给增量有限。整体供给端受成 本上升制约。 需求端 ：电力领域需求稳健，建滔于12月02日宣布涨价5-10%以应对铜箔 成本压力；新能源领域支撑显现，诺德股份签订2026-2028年铜箔供应协 议。但传统需求疲软，12月家电排产同比下滑14.1%，再生铜杆市场成交清 淡，黄铜棒企业订单萎缩。 库存端 ：LME库存于12月02日降至30568吨，但 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the copper market, including price movements, macro - economic and industry news, and supply - demand data. The current trend strength of copper is neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 86,600 with a daily increase of 0.60%, and the overnight closing price was 86350 with a decrease of 0.29%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 10,833 with a daily increase of 0.47%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 177,123, a decrease of 25,872 from the previous day, and the position was 524,645, an increase of 9,978. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 23,187, an increase of 11,411, and the position was 329,000, an increase of 1,449 [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 40,965, a decrease of 2,851 from the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory was 156,575, an increase of 825. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 3.59%, an increase of 0.05% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME copper premium was 24.88, an increase of 23.82 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 78,500, an increase of 100. The spot - to - futures near - month spread was 80, a decrease of 5 [1]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: US economic data shows an increased likelihood of interest rate cuts. In September, PPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month, core PPI growth was 0.1% lower than expected. Private sector employment decreased by an average of 13,500 per week in the past four weeks, and September retail sales increased by 0.2% month - on - month, far lower than expected [1]. - **Industry**: In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2 million and 40 thousand tons, a decrease of more than 10% month - on - month. Free Port plans to restart Grasberg mine production before July, and expects next year's copper and gold production to be the same as this year. China's October 2025 imports of copper ore and concentrates decreased by 5.24% month - on - month but increased by 6.08% year - on - year. The global refined copper market had a deficit of 51,000 tons in September, compared with a surplus of 41,000 tons in August [1][3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The valuation of copper is slightly bearish with a neutral bias. The global manufacturing PMI has a neutral driving force, the short - term decline in copper concentrate processing fees is bullish, and the rise in the US dollar index is bearish. Geopolitical factors suppress risk appetite, while copper raw material supply remains tight. Although domestic smelting maintenance is decreasing marginally, downstream operating rates remain strong, and the short - term pressure on inventory accumulation in China is not significant. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The trading range for the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 84,800 - 87,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is expected to be between 10,550 - 11,000 US dollars/ton [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Spot processing fees for copper concentrates declined, and those for blister copper remained flat. Codelco's 2026 CIF South Korea electrolytic copper long - term contract offer increased by 245 US dollars/ton compared to 2025 [11]. - Inventory: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 38,000 tons, with SHFE inventory rising to 111,000 tons, LME inventory to 155,000 tons, and COMEX inventory to 362,000 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 90 yuan/ton over futures, and the LME Cash/3M premium was 1.1 US dollars/ton [11]. - Imports and Exports: The loss on domestic electrolytic copper spot imports narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium rebounded. In October 2025, China's refined copper imports were 323,000 tons, with net imports of 257,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,000 tons and a year - on - year decline of 31.6%. From January to October, cumulative imports were 3.225 million tons, and net imports were 2.676 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [11]. - Demand: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises increased, and spot transactions remained warm. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed, reducing the substitution advantage of scrap copper, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises declined further [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: Copper prices fluctuated downward. The main SHFE copper contract fell 1.43% for the week, and LME copper fell 0.63% to 10,778 US dollars/ton [22]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of electrolytic copper and copper products showed different degrees of change, and the price spreads also varied [24]. - Premiums and Discounts: The spot premium of copper in East China was 90 yuan/ton over futures. The LME Cash/3M premium first declined and then rose, reaching 1.1 US dollars/ton on Friday. The loss on domestic electrolytic copper spot imports continued to narrow, and the Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) rebounded [27]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot TC for imported copper concentrates declined to - 42.3 US dollars/ton, and the price of sulfuric acid in East China increased, positively boosting copper smelting revenue [35]. - Import - Export Ratio: No specific information on the change trend is provided. - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The loss on copper spot imports narrowed [40]. - Inventory: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 38,000 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The increase in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai, and the decrease came from Guangdong and Jiangsu. The number of copper warehouse receipts decreased by 40 to 49,790 tons. The increase in LME inventory came from Asian warehouses, and European inventory decreased slightly. The proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts declined [43][46][49]. 4. Supply Side - Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output: According to SMM, China's refined copper output in October 2025 decreased by about 30,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in November. According to NBS data, domestic refined copper output in October was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%, and the cumulative output from January to October was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [54]. - Import and Export Situation: In October 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.451 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. From January to October, cumulative imports were 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. Unwrought copper and copper products imports were 438,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 52,000 tons but a year - on - year increase of 2%. Anode copper imports were 55,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons but a year - on - year decline of 8.6%. Refined copper imports were 323,000 tons, with net imports of 257,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,000 tons and a year - on - year decline of 31.6%. Refined copper exports were 66,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. The profit from domestic spot copper feed - processing exports narrowed. Recycled copper imports were 197,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. From January to October, cumulative imports were 1.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [57][60][63][69][72]. 5. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs in October both weakened. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was divided, with improvements in the Eurozone, India, and the UK, and weakening in the US and Japan [79]. - Downstream Industry Output Data: In October, the year - on - year output of automobiles, color TVs, and power generation equipment increased, while that of refrigerators, air conditioners, washing machines, freezers, and AC motors decreased. From January to October, the cumulative output of power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and AC motors increased, while that of color TVs and freezers decreased [82]. - Real Estate Data: Domestic real estate data in October continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all declining year - on - year. The decline in construction remained the same, while the decline in new construction, sales, and completion widened. The National Housing Climate Index continued to decline [85]. - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates: In October, the operating rates of refined copper rod, enameled wire, wire and cable, copper tube, brass rod, and copper strip enterprises declined, while the operating rate of copper foil enterprises increased. It is expected that the operating rates of these enterprises will rebound or increase slightly in November [88][91][94][97]. - Refined - Scrap Price Spread: The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed, reaching 2,675 yuan/ton on Friday [100]. 6. Capital Side - SHFE Copper Positions: The total SHFE copper positions decreased by 71,216 to 1,034,950 lots (bilateral), and the positions of the nearby 2512 contract were 249,184 lots (bilateral) [105]. - Foreign Fund Positions: As of October 7, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 13.3%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds stabilized as of November 14 [108].

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Monthly Report - Date: November 3, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin - Industry: Copper Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Supply - The tightness in the ore end is spreading to the smelting end. The supply tension of copper mines persists, and the TC of copper mines is still falling. The supply pressure of refined copper at home and abroad is easing. - Demand - Short - term high copper prices inhibit downstream consumption, but there are still growth expectations for medium - term copper demand. - Macro - The bullish pattern in the macro - aspect remains. Sino - US monetary policy easing expectations will continue to benefit base metals, and copper prices will strengthen [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review**: In October, the main contract of Shanghai copper operated in the range of (82300, 89270), with the total open interest rising 11% to 594,000 lots. The spot market turned from premium to discount. Social inventories continued to accumulate slightly. LME copper and COMEX copper also showed certain trends [9]. - **Future Outlook**: The supply pressure of refined copper at home and abroad is easing. The short - term high copper price inhibits downstream consumption, but the medium - term copper demand is expected to grow. The macro - environment is favorable, and copper prices are expected to strengthen [11][13]. 3.2. Supply Side: The Tightness of Raw Materials is Spreading to the Smelting End - **Copper Concentrate Market**: The supply and demand of the global copper concentrate market remain tight. In 2025, the incremental production of global copper mines is expected to be reduced to 270,000 tons. The TC of imported copper concentrates continues to decline, and the domestic supply - demand tension of copper concentrates intensifies [14][15]. - **Cold Material Market**: The import volume of anode copper in China from January to September 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year. The import volume of scrap copper increased. The supply - demand situation of the cold material market is expected to improve in November, and the processing fees are expected to rise steadily [18][19]. - **Smelter Production**: The production of smelters decreased. It is expected that the output of refined copper in China will continue to decline in November, and the output in December may increase slightly [21][22]. 3.3. Demand Side: The Peak Season of Copper Products is Not Prosperous, and the Terminal Demand Shows Resilience - **Domestic Copper Products Production**: From January to September, the output of domestic copper products increased year - on - year. In October, the operating rates of copper rods and their downstream industries were lower than expected, and the new orders were limited [27][29]. - **Automobile Market**: The production and sales of the automobile market have increased for five consecutive months, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have reached a record high [31][32]. - **Power System**: From January to September, the investment in the power grid increased year - on - year, and it is expected to further increase. The investment in the power source is expected to lag behind that in the power grid [37][38]. - **Home Appliance Industry**: From January to September 2025, the output and export growth rates of home appliances slowed down, and the global home appliance production and sales are expected to face downward pressure [41]. - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to September 2025, the investment, new construction, and completion growth rates of the real estate industry were negative, and it is expected that the real estate industry will not contribute to copper demand in the short term [43].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a tightening supply situation, with expectations of high-level fluctuations in prices due to macroeconomic uncertainties and strong fundamental support [1][5]. Group 1: Supply and Production - Chile's copper production in August fell sharply by 9.9% year-on-year to 424,000 tons, marking the largest decline in over two years, with Codelco's output down 25% [1]. - Peru's copper production also decreased by 1.6% year-on-year to 242,700 tons in August [1]. - The temporary shutdown of Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine has exacerbated the global copper supply shortage, with some areas expected to restart in mid-Q4, while others may not resume until 2026 [1]. - Goldman Sachs revised its 2025 global copper market forecast from a surplus of 10,500 tons to a shortage of 5,550 tons [1]. Group 2: Domestic Production and Demand - China's electrolytic copper production in September was 1.121 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.31% but a year-on-year increase of 11.62% [2]. - The operating rate of domestic electrolytic copper sample plants was 84.06%, down 3.91 percentage points month-on-month [2]. - In October, production is expected to decline to 1.083 million tons, with a further decrease anticipated due to maintenance at six smelting plants affecting 1.4 million tons of capacity [2]. - The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products in September reached 485,000 tons, the highest monthly figure this year, while cumulative imports from January to September totaled 4.019 million tons, down 1.7% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of October 17, global copper inventories across three major exchanges totaled 560,900 tons, an increase of 28,500 tons from the end of September [3]. - COMEX copper inventories have risen for seven consecutive months, reaching 345,600 short tons, while LME inventories have decreased to 137,200 tons [3]. - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventories have been accumulating, with a total of 186,600 tons reported as of October 20, reflecting a weekly increase of 14,600 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 32,800 tons [3]. Group 4: Economic and Market Outlook - Domestic copper cable enterprises' operating rates increased by 3.38 percentage points to 61.91% week-on-week, although this is a 15.02% decline year-on-year [4]. - High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, leading to a focus on just-in-time purchasing [4]. - The domestic economy is under short-term pressure, with consumption and investment growth slowing, but there are structural highlights in domestic demand [4]. - The overall expectation is for copper prices to maintain high-level fluctuations, with key support levels for the main contract around 84,000 to 84,200 yuan per ton [5].

Summary of Zijin Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zijin Mining - **Industry**: Mining (Gold, Copper, Lithium) Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue**: 221.1 billion CNY for the first three quarters, up 55% year-on-year [2][3] - **Net Profit**: 34.1 billion CNY, a 44% increase year-on-year [2][3] - **Operating Cash Flow**: 52.1 billion CNY, up 44% year-on-year [2][3] - **Cash Balance**: 61.5 billion CNY at the end of the period [2][3] - **Debt Ratio**: Decreased to 53%, down 2.18 percentage points from the previous year [3] Gold Business Performance - **Gold Production**: 65 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year [2][5] - **Third Quarter Gold Production**: 24 tons [5] - **Zijin Gold International IPO**: Successfully listed in Hong Kong, raising 28.7 billion HKD, making it the largest gold IPO globally [2][5] - **Future Gold Production Target**: Aiming for 100-110 tons by 2028, with expected production of nearly 50 tons in 2025 after the acquisition of the Akin Mine [6][5] Cost and Profitability - **Sales Cost Increase**: Unit sales costs have risen, but gross margins remain high [7][8] - **Gold Ingot Gross Margin**: 55.8% [7] - **Copper Products Gross Margins**: Copper concentrate at 64.77%, electrolytic copper at 47.21% [8] Copper Production Outlook - **2025 Copper Production Target**: Originally planned for 1.15 million tons, now expected to be around 1.1 million tons [14][15] - **2028 Copper Production Goal**: Targeting 1.5 to 1.6 million tons, with growth driven by projects in Tibet and other regions [14][15] Lithium Strategy - **Lithium Production**: Significant focus on lithium, with projects in Tibet and Argentina [4][16] - **Cost Control**: Lithium production costs range from 35,000 to 60,000 CNY per ton depending on the project [20][21] Market Trends and Future Outlook - **Gold Price Trends**: Gold prices have increased by 61% in 2025, with significant volatility expected [13] - **Copper Market Dynamics**: Anticipated price increase to over 12,000 USD per ton due to supply constraints and rising demand [22] - **Cost Management**: Company plans to optimize internal management and control costs through technological innovation [19] Additional Insights - **Non-Recurring Income**: Approximately 2.07 billion CNY in non-recurring income for the third quarter, primarily from financial asset changes [25] - **Profit Contribution**: Gold and copper each contributed about 38.5% to the overall profit in the third quarter [26] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting Zijin Mining's financial performance, strategic initiatives, and market outlook.

10月8日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价回落，受累于美元走强，稍早因交易商担心矿山生产 持续中断可能造成短缺而触及16个月最高。 铝价亦触及16个月最高水平，因可用库存下滑。 伦敦时间10月8日17:00(北京时间10月9日00:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌92美元，或0.85%，收报每吨 10,669.0美元。盘中一度触及每吨10,815美元的去年5月22日以来最高。 国际铜业研究组织(ICSG)周三预计，2025年全球精炼铜市场将供应过剩约17.8万吨，2026年将短缺15万 吨。今年4月，该组织预测今年将过剩28.9万吨，2026年将过剩20.9万吨。 "所有的供应干扰都使得市场吃紧，"WisdomTree大宗商品策略师Nitesh Shah称。"矿商在新勘探方面几 乎没有什么动作，甚至开采新矿也变得更加困难，因此这种供应紧张的状况将会持续。" | | 10月8日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 10.669.00 + | -92.00 ↓ -0.85% | | ...