当股市对关税威胁表现淡定时，债券投资者却已开始未雨绸缪。随着8月1日关税截止日期临近，美债市场避险情绪逐渐升温走出四连涨。 本周一，美国国债收益率全线下滑，其中基准10年期国债收益率下行约5个基点至4.37%，创下一周多以来的最低水平，并连续第四个交易日上 涨。长期债券涨幅也颇为明显，30年期美债收益率下跌5个基点至4.94%。 美国与欧盟官员本周继续进行贸易谈判，但迄今缺乏突破性进展，这增加了30%关税可能在下月生效的风险。据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普 此前宣布，将自8月1日起对从欧盟进口的商品征收30%关税。 关税担忧推动资金从股市流向更安全的美债资产。XTB Ltd.研究总监Kathleen Brooks表示，对关税风险和8月1日最后期限的担忧，正加剧市场的 避险基调。她指出，这正导致"资金从股市小幅重新配置到美国国债等更安全的资产中"。 除了贸易紧张局势，对美国国内政策的预期也在影响市场。交易员们正在押注所谓的"鲍威尔对冲"策略，以防范特朗普可能解雇美联储主席鲍威 尔的风险，这一策略为短期国债提供了支撑。 市场观点认为，鲍威尔的继任者将支持特朗普降息，从而推低短期收益率。受此影响，美国两年期国债收益 ...

Group 1 - The demand for safe-haven assets has increased due to the approaching deadline of U.S. tariff policies, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury prices and a decline in yields [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by 4 basis points to 4.38%, marking the lowest level since July 11 [1] - Ongoing trade negotiations between U.S. and EU officials have not yielded breakthroughs, raising the risk of a 30% tariff potentially taking effect next month [1] Group 2 - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond also fell by 4 basis points to 4.95%, indicating a significant movement in longer-term bonds [1] - Short-term Treasury yields are supported as traders seek to hedge against the possibility of President Trump dismissing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, a strategy referred to as "Powell hedge" [1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 2 basis points to 3.84%, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1] Group 3 - The logic behind the "Powell hedge" strategy is that if a new Fed chair aligns more with Trump's rate-cutting demands, short-term bond yields may decline due to expectations of policy easing [3] - Concerns over the potential erosion of central bank independence could elevate long-term inflation expectations, thereby increasing long-term bond yields [3] - The swap market indicates that a rate cut is highly unlikely next week, with traders expecting a total reduction of 46 basis points for the remainder of the year, showing little change from the previous week [3]