天风证券近日发布石油石化行业专题研究：当前金油比价是历史次高，仅次于2020年疫 情原油胀库负价格阶段。我们认为定价因素差异在于原油是基本面定价，黄金是宏观定价。 过去十年，油价紧跟基本面（OECD原油库存）：当下OECD原油库存处于中等偏低水平， 但是油价率先下跌，因为市场预期2026年原油基本面持续宽松会加剧累库。 以下为研究报告摘要： 金油比价，当下较大分化怎么解释？ 当前金油比价是历史次高，仅次于2020年疫情原油胀库负价格阶段。我们认为定价因素 差异在于原油是基本面定价，黄金是宏观定价。 油价跟随基本面，略微领先US10Y 过去十年，油价紧跟基本面（OECD原油库存）：当下OECD原油库存处于中等偏低水 平，但是油价率先下跌，因为市场预期2026年原油基本面持续宽松会加剧累库。 过去十年，油价和US10Y呈现略微领先的正向关系：原油累库预期→油价下跌预期→通 胀压力缓解预期→降息预期。 过去十年，金价与美国10年期国债收益率几乎呈负相关：黄金作为无息资产，其机会成 本和实际利率水平相关，当实际利率下降时，黄金的吸引力提升，反之则下降。美国从2025 年9月开始降息25个基点，市场普遍预期美国进入降息 ...

Core Insights - US consumer spending in August showed strong growth for the second consecutive month, increasing by 0.4% after inflation adjustment, surpassing the expected 0.2% [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month, maintaining a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][3][5] Consumer Spending Breakdown - The increase in consumer spending was primarily driven by goods consumption, which rose by 0.7% month-on-month, indicating strong purchasing willingness for non-essential items such as furniture, clothing, and entertainment [2][4] - In contrast, the growth in service spending was more moderate, with indications that high-income consumers continued to spend despite potential price increases due to tariffs [2][6] Inflation and Economic Outlook - Persistent inflation remains a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve, with the core PCE year-on-year growth stabilizing at 2.9%, well above the target [3][5] - The report highlighted that service costs, particularly in financial services, dining, and transportation, were major contributors to overall price increases, while goods prices showed weakness [6][8] Market Reactions - Following the data release, US stock futures showed little volatility, with the Nasdaq 100 futures maintaining a gain of approximately 0.3% [10] - The US dollar index experienced a slight decline, currently reported at 98.33 [10] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased to 4.158%, while spot gold prices increased by about $6, reaching $3755.53 per ounce [14]

Group 1 - The US dollar index experienced a short-term increase of approximately 20 points, currently reported at 98.10 [1] - US stock futures showed a slight decline, with the Nasdaq 100 index's drop expanding to 0.6% [1] - Spot gold prices decreased by about 8 dollars, currently reported at 3746.41 dollars per ounce [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose in the short term, currently reported at 4.177% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations due to a combination of overbought conditions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields, which have led to an increase in the U.S. dollar index, thereby exerting downward pressure on gold [2][3] - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including GDP, initial jobless claims, and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated a cautious outlook on interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to balance high inflation risks with a weakening labor market [2] - Powell acknowledged the rising risks in the labor market and inflation, stating that monetary policy remains moderately restrictive but capable of addressing potential economic developments [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with key support levels at 3715 and 3680, and resistance levels at 3780 and 3800 [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed a cautious outlook on interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to balance high inflation with a weak job market in future rate decisions [1] - Gold prices experienced a sudden decline, potentially linked to rising U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 3 basis points to 4.137% [1] - Geopolitical tensions are highlighted by President Trump's unexpected support for Ukraine, stating that Kyiv could reclaim the entire country from Russia [1] Group 2 - Analyst Felix noted Powell's clearer expression of uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, suggesting a slightly hawkish tone despite ongoing inflation pressures [2] - Analyst Chad maintained a long-term bullish outlook on gold prices, while indicating that short-term fluctuations may keep gold within the $3700-$3750 per ounce range [2] - If gold prices fall below $3700 per ounce, the next support level is the 20-day simple moving average at $3613 per ounce, with a further challenge at $3600 per ounce [2] Group 3 - Gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish daily direction with resistance levels at 3748, 3757, and 3764, and support levels at 3723, 3708, and 3684 [3] - The Euro to U.S. Dollar (EURUSD) also indicates a bullish daily direction with resistance at 1.1764, 1.1795, and 1.1832, and support at 1.1700, 1.1669, and 1.1648 [4] Group 4 - Key economic indicators to watch include initial jobless claims, final GDP growth rate for Q2, final personal consumption expenditures for Q2, existing home sales, and EIA natural gas inventory [4]

Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury market is showing significant sensitivity to economic cooling signals, with a notable decline in yields, particularly in the long end, where the 30-year Treasury yield dropped by 30 basis points since the beginning of the month[6] - The 5-year Treasury yield fell nearly 10 basis points following the release of August non-farm payroll data, reflecting a strong correlation with the Bloomberg Labor Market Surprise Index[7] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised non-farm employment numbers down by 910,000 over the past year, marking the largest revision since 2000, which indicates potential issues with statistical methods in the post-pandemic era[8] Labor Market Insights - The New York Fed's survey indicates that the probability of unemployed individuals finding a job within three months has decreased to 44.9%, while the probability of being unemployed within the next year has risen to 39.1%[8] - The market widely anticipates three rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year due to the weakening labor market[8] Federal Reserve Policy - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's stance has shifted to a more dovish tone, emphasizing employment downside risks and removing the "zero lower bound" language from policy statements, reinforcing the "maximum employment" goal[14] - Political pressures on the Fed are increasing, with President Trump publicly pressuring Powell and pushing for appointments of pro-Trump individuals to the Fed Board, raising concerns about the Fed's independence[15] Market Dynamics - The current market pricing for long-term rates reflects caution due to uncertainties surrounding policy, fiscal sustainability, and the Fed's independence, with long-term rates potentially offering attractive duration exposure as short-term rates decline rapidly[17] - Short-term Treasuries are viewed as a "safe haven" but carry structural risks due to their high reflection of rate cut expectations, which compresses yield potential[19]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market anticipates a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as the upcoming meeting approaches, with a focus on the performance of the 10-year Treasury yield as a key indicator of monetary policy easing and inflation expectations [1][2] - Morgan Stanley strategist Phil Camporeale indicates that the current labor market is in a "stagnation" state, which supports the case for lower federal funds rates to provide more "breathing space" for the job market [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield has slightly increased to 4.058%, which is crucial as it influences mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs; a rise in this yield could counteract the stimulative effects of lower short-term rates [1] Group 2: Inflation and Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's September consumer confidence preliminary survey shows a decline in consumer confidence, while long-term inflation expectations have risen to 3.9%, still below April's 4.4% [2] - The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, with core CPI increasing by 3.1% [2] - Pimco's Chief Investment Officer Mohit Mittal suggests that despite inflation being above the Fed's 2% target, the weakening labor market makes a rate cut a prudent move [2] Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Projections - CME FedWatch tool shows traders expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75% by year-end [3] - Mittal forecasts that U.S. inflation will decline to about 3% by the end of 2025 and further to 2.5% by the end of 2026, indicating confidence in the Fed's ability to manage inflation [3] - Camporeale predicts a 1% real GDP growth in 2025 and approximately 2% in 2026, suggesting that the Fed may continue to cut rates in a stable economic environment [3] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock market performance was mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 0.44% to reach a new all-time high, while the S&P 500 Index fell slightly by 0.05% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.59% [4] - All three major indices recorded weekly gains, with the S&P 500 Index just shy of its historical high set on Thursday [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. preliminary benchmark payrolls revision indicates a downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs for the one-year period ending March 2025, marking the largest revision on record, suggesting a weaker labor market than previously reported [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates for the first time this year, with the possibility of a 50 basis point cut being considered instead of the previously forecasted 25 basis points due to the new labor market data [2] Group 2 - Rate-sensitive assets such as crypto, gold, and long-dated bonds experienced volatility, with gold futures initially surging past $3,700 before giving back gains and closing flat at $3,679 [3] - Bitcoin (BTC) saw a decline from $113,000 to $111,600, reflecting a 1% drop over the past 24 hours, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.07%, threatening to dip below 4% for the first time since February [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing significant signs of cooling, with August job growth falling short of expectations, leading to increased bets on the Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts starting this month [1] - In August, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls recorded an increase of only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000 jobs, while previous months' data were revised downwards [1] - The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 88.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 11.7% chance of a 50 basis point cut [1] Group 2 - Following the employment data release, the U.S. dollar index dropped approximately 35 points, while spot gold prices surged nearly $30, reaching a record high of $3,586 per ounce [1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 10.74 basis points to 3.474%, and the 10-year yield decreased by 9.03 basis points to 4.070% after the non-farm payroll data was published [3] - U.S. stock futures saw a short-term increase, with the Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.86% [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing clear signs of cooling, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the expected 75,000 and the previous value of 73,000 [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, matching expectations but marking the highest level since 2021, raising concerns about a potential further deterioration in the job market [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, with an 88.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and a 63.4% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by October [1] Group 2 - Following the labor market data release, the U.S. dollar index fell approximately 35 points, currently reported at 97.56 [1] - U.S. stock futures saw a short-term increase, with the Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.72% [4] - The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note decreased, currently reported at 4.131% [6]