每经AI快讯，11月26日，美国10年期国债收益率下跌5个基点，至4.45%。 ...

白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）被特朗普总统的顾问和盟友视为下任美联储主 席的头号人选。 据媒体最新报道， 随着新一任美联储主席的遴选进入最后阶段，哈塞特的呼声最高。 哈塞特被认为与特朗普的经济观高度一致，包括认为应降低利率。 他在11月20日接受媒体采访时表 示，如果由他担任美联储主席，他现在会立刻降息，因为数据表明我们应该这么做。哈塞特还批评美联 储在疫情后让通胀失控。 媒体援引知情人士表示，如果选择哈塞特，特朗普将在独立的美联储安插一位自己非常熟悉且信任的亲 密盟友。外界认为哈塞特会将特朗普偏好的降息取向带入美联储，而这也是特朗普长期以来希望掌控的 方向。 不过，知情人士也指出， 特朗普以意外的人事与政策决定著称，因此提名在公开宣布前都不能视为最 终确定 。白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在一份声明中表示："在总统真正做出决定之前，没有人知道他会 做什么。敬请期待！" 分析称， 上述消息人士极可能正是在特朗普授意下"泄露消息"。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特本周二表示，特朗普有很大可能会在未来一个月内、圣诞节也即12月25日 前宣布美联储主席提名。 这使美国财政部长贝森特面临压力 ...

宏观经济深度研究 在临界中博弈路径 ——2026 年全球大类资产展望 2026 年的全球市场正处于临界混沌区间，资产价格的关联度与敏感度同步上 升，利率、汇率与大宗商品的切换节奏呈现更明显的非线性特征。在这样的结 构下，大类资产配置的重点从分散资产转向分散路径，构建抗扰度高的投资组 合成为新的投资逻辑。判断依据主要来自三个方面：一是线性预测能力继续减 弱，全球经济运行受非线性影响更深，价格对扰动的反应更加集中。二是定价 链条进一步围绕政策与预期展开，价格跳跃与路径切换的频率提升。三是多情 景并存的市场环境，对组合提出更高的稳定性要求，需要通过路径分散的布局 提升抗扰度，以适应临界阶段的价格结构与博弈格局。 全球经济进入临界混沌，大类资产的关联度、高敏感度上升。一方面，全球增 长与价格体系呈现更明显的非线性特征，周期节奏变得更不均匀，路径依赖与 预期反馈的影响不断增强。财政在政策组合中的重要性上升，政策变化对资产 价格的影响更直接，扰动的传导速度也更快。 从增长看，IMF 预计 2026 年全球经济增速放缓至 3.1%，比 2024 年低 2 个百分 点，但整体保持韧性。发达经济体增速预计为 1.6%，美国增长 ...

格隆汇11月21日｜瑞典北欧斯安银行研究部首席策略师Jussi Hiljanen在报告中表示，仍预计2026年第一 季度美国10年期国债收益率将回落至3.90%，但同时也承认，当前市场环境使这一预测面临挑战。"要 实现3.90%的Q1目标，市场必须重新建立对美联储降息路径的信心，"他指出。近期美联储官员偏鹰派 的言论加剧了短期内的不确定性，但他强调，未来三到四个月内政策立场转向宽松、利率预期下调以及 收益率走低，仍是其基准情景。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding the potential interest rate cut in December, with some officials advocating for a cut due to a weak labor market and consumer pressures, while others urge caution due to concerns about inflation and incomplete data [1] - The upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 has seen a significant drop in the market's expectation for a rate cut, from 90% at the beginning of the month to approximately 45% currently, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards maintaining current rates [1] Group 2 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has slightly fallen below the critical support level of 4.12, showing a divergence from the declining rate cut expectations, yet overall indicators like MACD and KDJ still suggest a bullish trend [2] - The recent drop in yields despite the cooling rate cut expectations highlights strong demand for Treasuries, contrasting with the yield increase observed on the day the Fed announced a 25 basis point cut, which was influenced by higher market risk appetite and the cessation of balance sheet reduction [2]

Market Overview - Major U.S. indices declined, with the Dow Jones down 557.24 points (1.18%) to 46,590.24, the Nasdaq down 192.51 points (0.84%) to 22,708.07, and the S&P 500 down 61.7 points (0.92%) to 6,672.41 [1] - European indices also fell, with Germany's DAX30 down 283.38 points (1.19%) to 23,603.69, the UK's FTSE 100 down 22.72 points (0.23%) to 9,675.65, and France's CAC40 down 51.07 points (0.63%) to 8,119.02 [1] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin dropped over 2.5%, falling below $92,000, while Ethereum fell over 3%, dropping below $3,000 [3] Commodities - Crude oil prices decreased slightly, with NYMEX light crude for December delivery down $0.18 to $59.91 per barrel (0.3%) and Brent crude for January down $0.19 to $64.20 per barrel (0.3%) [2] - Gold prices fell by 0.97% to $4,045.87, with Goldman Sachs projecting gold prices could reach $4,900 by the end of 2026 due to increased central bank purchases and ongoing economic concerns [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports another rate cut in December, citing concerns over a weakening labor market and the impact of monetary policy on low-income consumers [5] - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson noted rising downside risks to employment but emphasized a cautious approach to policy adjustments, indicating a potential for further rate cuts or holding rates steady [9] Corporate News - Amazon is set to issue approximately $12 billion in high-rated corporate bonds, marking its first such issuance in three years, with proceeds potentially used for debt repayment, acquisitions, and investments [10] - The EU is considering regulatory measures for major cloud service providers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, following significant service disruptions that highlighted market dependency on a few providers [11] Analyst Ratings - Jefferies raised the target price for Sohu (SOHU.US) from $18 to $20 [12] - Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro increased Tesla's (TSLA.US) target price from $483 to $508, citing advancements in the company's autonomous driving and ride-hailing products [13]

"随着政府重启数据发布，美国国债投资者正为更大波动做准备，"荷兰国际集团资深欧洲利率策略师 Michiel Tukker在客户报告中表示。他补充道，鉴于市场尚未完全确定美联储下一步行动，任何新的通 胀和就业数据都可能影响收益率曲线前端走势。 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳莱维特周三表示，10月就业和消费者物价指数(CPI)报告大概率无法按时发布，这 让局势更趋复杂。停摆期间，美国国债陷入横盘整理，10年期国债收益率围绕4%关口波动。媒体美国 国债指数在此期间上涨0.4%，延续了2020年以来的最佳年度表现。 不过在政府重启前夕，交易员大举建仓目标为10年期收益率跌破4%的国债期权，押注数据潮将印证经 济走弱趋势。 "在12月利率决议前，唯有实体经济走向和联邦公开市场委员会政策倾向更趋明朗，收益率才能突破当 前窄幅震荡区间，"BMO Capital Markets美国利率策略主管Ian Lyngen周三在报告中写道，"参差不齐的 私营数据让我们对就业市场下行风险的担忧尤为突出。" 周四，美国国债市场大体持稳，但波动率指标显示，随着美国走出史上持续时间最长的政府停摆，未来 数日可能会出现剧烈波动。 数据显示，美国10年期国债 ...

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury prices have increased, leading to a decline in the yield of the 10-year Treasury note by 3 basis points to 4.13% [1] Group 1 - The price of US Treasury securities has risen, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has decreased, reflecting lower borrowing costs and potential implications for the broader economy [1]

Group 1 - Global stock market sell-off has led to increased interest in U.S. Treasury bonds, with analysts discussing the potential for the 10-year yield to drop to as low as 3.5% by the end of 2026, currently around 4.07% [1][2] - Danske Bank expects the U.S. Treasury to maintain its forward guidance on fixed-rate auction sizes in upcoming refinancing announcements, with a borrowing estimate reduced by $21 billion to $569 billion for the current quarter [2] - Multiple factors contributing to risk aversion include warnings from Wall Street CEOs about potential market corrections and concerns over a record government shutdown, leading to a continued decline in the market [2] Group 2 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently stable above 4%, with analysts noting that the yield has not reached particularly high levels despite recent market volatility [2] - Gold prices are expected to consolidate in a lower trading range of $3,800 to $4,050 per ounce, with a potential rise to above $4,400 in the first half of 2026 after the consolidation period [3] - The Australian central bank has decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate, with inflation risks expected to persist, suggesting the end of the easing cycle that began in February [3]

Group 1 - Global stock markets are experiencing a sell-off triggered by fears of a technology stock valuation bubble, leading to a surge in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe haven [1][4] - DBS Bank predicts that if the stock market continues to decline, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond could drop to 3.8%, a significant decrease from the current level of approximately 4.07% [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Bloomberg Asia Chip Index collectively lost about $500 billion in market value, highlighting concerns over an AI-related investment bubble [4] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs executives have warned that stock prices may continue to fall, indicating potential for a new rally in the $73 trillion bond market [1] - Saxo Markets' chief investment strategist noted that the bond buying reflects a sell-off in AI themes, with funds moving towards safe assets as stock volatility increases [4] - Multiple factors, including a potential U.S. government shutdown, weak economic data, and liquidity issues, are contributing to sustained risk aversion in the market [4]