Group 1 - Spot gold increased by 1.0% to $3348.65 per ounce, continuing to rise since 10:00 AM Beijing time [1] - COMEX gold futures also rose by 1.0%, reaching $3392.4 per ounce [1] - Ethereum saw a significant increase from around $4100 to nearly $4230, with an overall daily rise of 1.7% [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin experienced a short-term surge from approximately $112,400, with an overall daily increase, returning above $113,800 [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond fell by about 2.2 basis points, hitting a new low below 4.2830% [1] - The US dollar against the Japanese yen declined nearly 0.5%, reaching a new low below 147 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes that Congress will not consider revising the Federal Reserve Act, and if he were to become Fed Chair, he would seek to break the "groupthink" mentality [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Bullard's comments, the S&P 500 index nearly completely reversed its earlier gains, while the Nasdaq 100 index turned negative [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell by 6.4 basis points, reaching a new low below 4.225% [1] - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury dropped by 6.5 basis points, hitting a new low below 3.667% [1] Group 2: Political Context - Media reports indicate that Bullard is included in former President Trump's list of candidates for Fed Chair [1] - The current President is free to express views on the FOMC's monetary policy [1]

Core Insights - The recent U.S. inflation data shows a mixed picture with the overall CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.8% [1] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 3.0%, marking the highest level since February [1][2] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged to 98% [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggested that the Fed should consider a larger rate cut of 50 basis points in the upcoming decision [2] - Analysts predict a total of six rate cuts by the Fed, with three expected this year and one each quarter next year, ultimately bringing the rate down to 3% [2] Stock and Commodity Movements - U.S. stock markets rallied, with the S&P reaching a historical high, while the dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields declined [4] - Gold experienced volatility post-CPI data, remaining within a trading range of $3330 to $3360 [4][5] Gold Market Analysis - After a significant drop in gold prices, the market showed reduced volatility, with trading primarily around $3350 [5] - The outlook for gold suggests a challenging environment for bulls, with potential downward targets set at $3330, $3315, and ultimately $3245 [7] - Short-term strategies indicate a focus on buying on dips while maintaining short positions at higher levels [10] Silver Market Insights - Silver showed stronger rebound potential compared to gold, with a focus on short positions after a brief rally [10]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent market movements in both US and Chinese stock markets, highlighting the volatility in the US market and the resilience of the A-share market [1][2] - A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, indicating investor confidence despite external market fluctuations [1][6] - The article notes that the A-share market's rebound is driven by policy support and structural reforms, with a shift in focus from traditional sectors to advanced manufacturing and technology [7][8] Group 2 - Analysts believe that China's fiscal and foreign exchange reserves are stable, providing sufficient policy space to address potential economic fluctuations [4] - The Chinese economy has shown resilience, with a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, and the IMF has raised its growth forecast for China to 4.8% [3][4] - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced asset allocation, particularly in RMB assets, as a prudent strategy in the current risk environment [2][5] Group 3 - The US stock market is experiencing a "faith versus valuation" tug-of-war, with high valuations in the TMT sector raising concerns about systemic risks [10] - Despite strong earnings from tech giants, the concentration of market capitalization in a few companies poses risks, as their earnings contribution is not proportional to their market value [10] - The article suggests that the current market dynamics require a shift in investment strategy from short-term rebounds to identifying structural opportunities [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market has policy support, and there are opportunities to go long on dips. The bond market is affected by the stock - commodity market, and the interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term. The precious metals market is under pressure due to the hawkish stance of the Fed. Different metals in the non - ferrous metals market have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals. The black building materials market is affected by policies and demand, and prices may fluctuate. The energy and chemical market has various trends for different products based on supply - demand and cost factors. The agricultural products market also shows different trends for different products such as livestock, grains, and oils [2][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **News**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the capital market. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits for some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. Ningde Times' net profit increased by 33.02% year - on - year. Zhongchuan Emergency will be under risk warning from August 1st [2] - **Base Ratio**: Different base ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [2] - **Trading Logic**: The policy's support for the capital market is confirmed, and there are opportunities to go long on dips [2] Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose [3] - **News**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of fiscal and monetary policies. The Sino - US economic and trade talks agreed to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days [3] - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 3090 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1585 billion yuan [3] - **Strategy**: The interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term, but the stock and commodity markets may suppress the bond market in the short - term [6] Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Both domestic and foreign gold and silver prices declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.38%, and the US dollar index was 99.82 [7] - **Market Outlook**: The hawkish stance of the Fed and the strong US economic data are negative factors for precious metals [7] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper fell 0.74%, and SHFE copper was affected. The inventory and basis changed [10] - **Price Outlook**: The pressure on copper prices is relieved, and the price is expected to stabilize in the short - term [10] Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum rose slightly, and SHFE aluminum was in a volatile state. The inventory and basis changed [11] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the low inventory and weak demand [11] Zinc - **Market Quotes**: SHFE zinc index rose slightly. The inventory and basis changed [12] - **Price Outlook**: The long - term price is bearish, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's decision and market risks [12][13] Lead - **Market Quotes**: SHFE lead index fell slightly. The inventory and basis changed [14] - **Price Outlook**: The supply is tightening, and the price may strengthen if the smelter inspection expands [14] Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. The prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and refined nickel changed [15] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to decline, and short positions can be held or shorted on rallies [15] Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. The inventory and price of upstream tin concentrate changed [16] - **Price Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak in the short - term, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [16] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Quotes**: The spot index was flat, and the futures price fell. The trading limits were adjusted [18] - **Price Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, but there is high uncertainty, and speculators are advised to be cautious [18] Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The index rose, and the spot price and basis changed. The inventory increased slightly [19] - **Price Outlook**: The over - capacity pattern may remain, and short - term waiting and watching are recommended [19] Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The futures price was flat, and the spot price and basis changed. The inventory decreased [20] - **Price Outlook**: The price may be affected by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to terminal demand [20] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was flat. The inventory increased slightly [21] - **Price Outlook**: The price is under pressure due to the weak supply and demand in the off - season [21] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fell. The inventory and basis changed [23] - **Price Outlook**: The overall fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and cost support [24] Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price and basis changed [25] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term price may be adjusted, and risk control is needed [26] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price was flat. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [27] - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was stable. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [28] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot price and basis changed [29] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term price fluctuates greatly, and speculation is not recommended. The long - term fundamentals are bearish [30][31] Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell. The spot price and basis changed [33] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate with high volatility, and waiting and watching are recommended [34] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices fell. The supply concern decreased [37] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate downward, and short - term waiting and watching are recommended [39] Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI and Brent crude oil rose, while INE crude oil fell. The inventory data changed [40] - **Price Outlook**: The price has upward momentum in the short - term but is limited by the off - season demand [41] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The basis changed [42] - **Price Outlook**: The supply may increase and demand may weaken, and waiting and watching are recommended [42] Urea - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price was flat. The basis changed [43] - **Price Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak, and long positions can be considered on dips [43] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices rose, and the basis strengthened [44] - **Price Outlook**: The price may rise with the cost after the inventory is reduced [44] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [46] - **Price Outlook**: The supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price may fall back [46] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [47] - **Price Outlook**: The fundamentals may turn weak, and the price may decline [47] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [48] - **Price Outlook**: The supply may increase and inventory may accumulate, and long positions can be considered on dips [50] p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [51] - **Price Outlook**: The price may go down with inventory, and long positions can be considered on dips [51] Polyethylene PE - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [52] - **Price Outlook**: The price may be affected by cost and supply, and short positions can be held [52] Polypropylene PP - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [53] - **Price Outlook**: The price may follow the crude oil trend in July [53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The pig price was stable with local fluctuations [57] - **Price Outlook**: The price may rise slightly today. Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [57] Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The egg price was stable [58] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term price may oscillate, and short positions can be considered after the rebound [58] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: The US soybean price fell, and the domestic soybean meal price rose slightly [59] - **Price Outlook**: The soybean import cost may be affected by trade relations, and long positions can be considered on dips [60][61] Oils - **Market Quotes**: The domestic palm oil oscillated, and the net long positions of three major oils changed [62] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate, and there may be an upward trend in the fourth quarter [63] Sugar - **Market Quotes**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell [64] - **Price Outlook**: The supply may increase, and the price may continue to decline [65] Cotton - **Market Quotes**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell [66] - **Price Outlook**: The price is bearish in the short - term due to the weak consumption and unresolved trade issues [66]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Jerome Powell stated that no decision has been made regarding a rate cut in September, which has led to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 4.6 basis points, reaching 4.372% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. Treasury yields have declined across various maturities, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment or market conditions [1] Group 2 - The 30-year Treasury yield decreased by 10 basis points to 4.86% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 9 basis points to 4.32% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield dropped by 5 basis points to 3.88% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 2.40 basis points, reaching 4.4118%, while European stocks opened significantly lower before rebounding after a few hours of volatility [1] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 2.40 basis points to 4.4118% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 0.45 basis points to 3.9277% [1] - The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields widened by 2.162 basis points, now at +48.198 basis points [1] Group 2: European Market Reaction - European stocks opened significantly lower, hitting a daily low of 4.4660% [1] - After approximately three hours of fluctuations, European stocks experienced a rebound [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1387.350, down by 24.160 or 1.71% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1219.630, down by 13.600 or 1.10% [2] - Gold (COMEX GC) is priced at 3341.100, down by 30.200 or 0.90% [2] - Silver (COMEX SI) is priced at 39.025, down by 0.260 or 0.66% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is down by 0.33% at 1.171 [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is down by 0.66% at 1.342 [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is up by 0.54% at 147.787 [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is down by 0.52% at 0.655 [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is up by 0.33% at 0.798 [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 115684.210, down by 2635.780 or 2.23% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 114.140, up by 1.890 or 1.68% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 3688.680, down by 17.820 or 0.48% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 3.106, down by 0.040 or 1.27% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.913 [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.966, down by 0.005 or 0.13% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.415, up by 0.007 or 0.16% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.960, up by 0.011 or 0.22% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.652, up by 0.030 or 0.65% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.727, up by 0.034 or 1.26% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.392, up by 0.025 or 0.74% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.596, up by 0.031 or 0.87% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.603, up by 0.005 or 0.31% [7]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1407.040, down by 4.470 or 0.32% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1237.570, up by 4.340 or 0.35% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3369.400, down by 1.900 or 0.06% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 39.410, up by 0.125 or 0.32% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange Rates - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.174, down by 0.04% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.350, down by 0.07% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 147.403, up by 0.28% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.659, down by 0.05% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.796, up by 0.16% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 117514.280, down by 805.710 or 0.68% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 110.830, down by 1.420 or 1.27% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 3673.520, down by 32.980 or 0.89% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 3.130, down by 0.016 or 0.50% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond is 3.916 [6] - The yield on the 5-year US Treasury bond is 3.961, down by 0.010 or 0.25% [7] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is 4.395, down by 0.013 or 0.29% [7] - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond is 4.931, down by 0.018 or 0.36% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.622, unchanged [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.694, up by 0.094 or 3.62% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.373, up by 0.100 or 3.06% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.568, up by 0.104 or 3.00% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.590, down by 0.008 or 0.50% [7]