美伊谈判分歧较大 避险情绪延续 市场分析 地缘方面，伊美第三轮间接谈判结束。伊朗外长称，双方在某些领域接近达成共识，下周一在维也纳举行技术谈 判。斡旋方阿曼的外长称谈判"取得重大进展"。媒体称双方分歧仍很大，美方坚持要求伊朗彻底拆除核设施，所 有浓缩铀转移出境；伊方提出铀浓缩在有限年限内停止核活动，之后浓缩活动在受监管的区域框架内恢复。全球 债务方面，国际金融协会发布报告显示，全球债务规模在去年底攀升到创纪录的348万亿美元，增长了近29万亿美 元。创下自2020年新冠疫情暴发初期以来最快增速，一改以往由家庭或企业主导的结构。其中美国、欧元区等国 家政府债务占10万亿美元以上。经济数据方面，美国上周初请失业金人数为21.2万人，预期21.5万人，前值从20.6 万人修正为20.8万人。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-02-26，沪金主力合约开于1148.68元/克，收于1146.48元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.40%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1144.50元/克，收于1146.04元/克，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.04%。 2026-02-26，沪银主力合 ...

基本面： 周五（02月27日）白银价格区间震荡微涨，继续关注"美伊和谈"进展，最新报88.65美元/盎司，值得投资者关注的是，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在会谈后接受国家 电视台采访时，用"最为严肃"来形容此次会谈，同时坦诚双方在一些问题上达成共识，但在另一些问题上仍存在分歧。这种谨慎乐观的态度恰恰让市场陷入 两难：如果谈判取得实质性突破，地缘政治风险溢价将大幅压缩，黄金可能面临回调压力；但如果谈判破裂，特朗普政府此前设定的10至15天期限即将到 期，中东地区大规模军事集结的阴影将瞬间引爆避险情绪。多空交织下的金价困局黄金正试图突破5200美元的阻力位，但本周以来始终未能守住涨幅。这 种"屡攻不破"的局面恰恰反映出市场缺乏明确的方向性催化剂——多空双方都在等待日内瓦谈判的结果揭晓。 白银价 继续关 白银图表： ---趋势判断---- 目前白银行情为价格上涨趋势。可以布局支撑多单和压力位空单思路。 1. 白银技术图表显示目前K线支撑位85.96附近 2. 大周期MACD图形呈现均线相交箭头向上大趋势看涨，目前盘整为主要MACD亚盘方向。交易需要谨慎并且可参考低位多单轻仓操作。 ? 美伊谈判 无论谈判结果如何，当前的不确定性 ...

欧洲时段前，现货黄金（XAU/USD）运行在5200美元整数关口下方，距离周内触及的月度高点仅咫尺 之遥。尽管尚未形成有效突破，但整体上升通道结构未被破坏。中东局势成为关键变量。美伊核问题第 三轮谈判临近，美国在区域内的军事部署提升了市场警惕度。若谈判出现反复，潜在的制裁升级或冲突 风险可能迅速推升避险需求，这一不确定性构成金价的重要支撑因素。与此同时，特朗普在国情咨文中 重申关税政策的战略地位，并表示政府正推动将关税税率提高至15%。在最高法院否决既有框架后，白 宫继续推进对部分非豁免商品加征10%关税的计划。贸易摩擦预期升温，使企业与投资者对全球供应链 稳定性保持审慎态度，也在一定程度上削弱了美元买盘的持续性。技术层面来看，5100美元区域已由此 前压力位转化为关键支撑。价格稳定运行于200周期简单移动均线（约4930美元）上方，中期多头结构 得到强化。 UNFX 2月25日讯 在市场重新校准美联储政策路径、短端美债收益率上行的环境下，黄金价格却再度逼 近阶段高位，显示当前资产定价已不再单纯围绕利率变量展开。贸易政策不确定性与中东地缘局势升 温，为避险资产提供持续支撑；与此同时，美元反弹动能边际减弱，使贵 ...

格隆汇2月20日｜周四（2月19日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率跌0.96个基点，报4.0731%，北京 时间22:00以来持续走低。两年期美债收益率涨0.62个基点，报3.4657%；30年期美债收益率跌0.29个基 点，报4.7030%。2/10年期美债收益率利差跌1.161个基点，报+60.530个基点。10年期通胀保值国债 （TIPS）收益率跌1.29个基点，至1.7747%，02:00披露美国财政部30年期TIPS发行结果时出现一波跳水 行情；两年期TIPS收益率跌2.04个基点，至0.7315%；30年期TIPS收益率跌0.77个基点，至2.4717%，30 年期TIPS拍卖结果出炉时从2.4950%跳水至2.47%。 ...

10年期通胀保值国债（TIPS）收益率跌2.41个基点，至1.7551%，本周累跌12.25个基点；两年期TIPS收 益率跌0.59个基点，至0.7077%，本周累跌0.25个基点；30年期TIPS收益率跌1.99个基点，至2.4636%， 本周累跌12.01个基点。 格隆汇2月14日｜周五（2月13日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率跌4.98个基点，报4.0483%，本周 累计下跌15.77个基点，整体震荡下行。两年期美债收益率跌5.45个基点，报3.4014%，北京时间21:30发 布美国CPI通胀数据时跌至3.3951%，创最近2022年以来新低，本周累跌9.62个基点；30年期美债收益率 跌3.75个基点，报4.6953%，本周累跌15.57个基点。2/10年期美债收益率利差涨0.477个基点，报+64.486 个基点，本周累跌5.945个基点。 ...

Market Overview - Asian stock markets retreated from record highs as investors locked in profits ahead of the Chinese New Year, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index falling 0.9%, marking its first decline in six trading days [1] - The South Korean Kospi index rose 0.9%, showcasing resilience amid concerns over U.S. tech stocks due to AI-related anxieties [1][2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.11%, partially recovering from gains driven by risk aversion [1][5] Commodity Performance - Gold prices rose by 0.7% to approximately $4,950 per ounce, while silver saw a daily increase of 3%, reaching $77.46 per ounce [1][5] - Bitcoin rebounded after four consecutive days of decline, trading at $66,335.45 [5] Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. January inflation data, with expectations for the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise by 2.5% year-on-year [1][8] - Traders have pushed back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut from June to July, with minimal likelihood of a cut in March [1][8] - Citigroup's Benjamin Wiltshire cautioned that the market may be overly optimistic about U.S. inflation prospects, suggesting that inflation expectations could be revised upward [8] AI Market Impact - The volatility in U.S. markets reflects the high risks associated with the AI boom, but the impact on Asian markets has been relatively contained so far [7] - Applied Materials' strong post-market performance indicates potential easing of AI-related concerns [7] Regional Stock Performance - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index has risen approximately 12% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 index has erased all its gains for the year, currently down 0.2% [2] - The South Korean Kospi index has surged 32% this year, making it the best-performing stock market globally [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term monetary policy expectations suppress precious metals, but they remain in a high - level oscillation pattern supported by global central bank gold purchases, COMEX gold inventory reduction, and geopolitical risks. The market focus has shifted to the upcoming US January CPI data, and the inflation path will be the key to pricing Fed policies and precious metal trends in the next stage. Due to the decline of US technology stocks and profit - taking by some investors, precious metal prices dropped. The strategy is to remain on the sidelines for now, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 950 - 1100 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 18500 - 21000 yuan/kilogram [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold dropped 2.42% to 1100.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver dropped 1.88% to 19188.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold dropped 3.08% to 4941.40 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver dropped 10.62% to 75.25 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.09%, and the US dollar index was 96.91 [2] - The Thursday plunge of precious metals might be due to the decline of US technology stocks, forcing some investors to close positions to replenish liquidity, combined with CTA trading strategies and profit - taking by investors. The initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 7 were 227,000, higher than the expected 222,000. The continuing jobless claims for the week ending January 31 were 1.862 million, slightly higher than the expected 1.85 million. The annualized total number of existing home sales in the US in January was 3.91 million, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%, which might ease the hawkish market expectations brought by previous non - farm employment data [2] 3.2 Strategy Views - Due to the decline of US technology stocks forcing investors to close positions for replenishment and profit - taking by some investors, precious metal prices dropped. But supported by global central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, they are still in a high - level oscillation. The key market game has shifted to Friday's CPI data. Temporarily stay on the sidelines, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 950 - 1100 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 18500 - 21000 yuan/kilogram [4] 3.3 Key Data Summary - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) was 5107.80 dollars/ounce, up 1.19%; trading volume was 125,400 lots, up 23.12%; open interest was 409,700 lots, down 16.13%; inventory was 1080 tons, down 1.40%. LBMA gold's closing price was 5077.85 dollars/ounce, up 0.92%. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) was 1126.12 yuan/gram, down 0.38%; trading volume was 324,400 lots, up 14.97%; open interest was 302,700 lots, down 0.63%; inventory was 105.07 tons, unchanged; precipitated funds were 5.4533 billion yuan, down 1.01%. AuT + D's closing price was 1122.92 yuan/gram, down 0.14%; trading volume was 24.71 tons, down 14.71%; open interest was 255.19 tons, down 3.12% [7] - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) was 84.09 dollars/ounce, up 4.35%; open interest was 143,200 lots, down 8.59%; inventory was 11868 tons, down 1.22%. LBMA silver's closing price was 86.10 dollars/ounce, up 4.64%. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) was 20,626.00 yuan/kilogram, down 1.52%; trading volume was 1,109,100 lots, up 2.31%; open interest was 540,200 lots, down 2.84%; inventory was 349.63 tons, up 2.20%; precipitated funds were 3.0082 billion yuan, down 4.32%. AgT + D's closing price was 19,670.00 yuan/kilogram, down 1.15%; trading volume was 220.35 tons, down 5.23%; open interest was 3143.492 tons, down 1.42% [7] 3.4 ETF Holdings - **Gold**: iShare US's holding was 499.84 tons, up 0.08%; GBS UK's holding was 30.80 tons, down 0.22%; PHAU UK's holding was 54.48 tons, down 0.21%; GOLD UK's holding was 29.92 tons, up 0.04%; SGBS Switzerland's holding was 36.12 tons, unchanged [65] - **Silver**: SLV US's trading volume was 96.4592 million shares, up 29.09%; ETPMAG Australia's holding was 489.86 tons, down 1.18%; PSLV Canada's holding was 6747.30 tons, unchanged; CEF Canada's holding was 1610.16 tons, unchanged [65]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that investors are anticipating at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by 2026, as per the CME Group's FedWatch tool [1][2] - Spot gold prices have risen above $5100 per ounce for the first time since January 30, with a daily increase of 1.54%, attributed to a weaker dollar [1] - The dollar index has decreased by 0.22% to 96.586, reaching a near two-week low, making gold cheaper for foreign buyers [1] Group 2 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has fallen to a near one-month low, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, thus supporting the rise in gold prices [1] - The market is awaiting the upcoming U.S. employment data, with expectations of a 70,000 increase in jobs for January and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.4% [1] - UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo suggests that the anticipated slowdown in U.S. employment growth will reinforce expectations for continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, further supporting gold prices [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the U.S. stock market, particularly focusing on major indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000, indicating a generally positive market sentiment with slight fluctuations in various sectors [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - The S&P 500 index closed up by 47 basis points at 6,965 points, while the Nasdaq 100 index rose by 77 basis points to 25,268 points, reflecting a recovery in the market [1][2]. - Bitcoin experienced a decline of 29 basis points, trading at $70,455, amidst a calm market environment following previous volatility [3]. - The software sector showed a rebound of 3%, with a notable increase in buy orders as the market stabilized after heavy selling pressure the previous week [3]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including retail sales, non-farm payrolls (NFP), and consumer price index (CPI), are anticipated to impact market dynamics significantly [3]. - Goldman Sachs' economic team projected a lower-than-expected increase in January employment numbers, estimating a rise of 45,000 jobs compared to the market consensus of 70,000 [3]. Additional Important Content - Asset management firms and hedge funds emerged as net buyers, driven by increased demand for technology stocks and a lack of selling pressure in financial stocks [4]. - The insurance brokerage sector faced declines due to uncertainty surrounding the implications of AI applications approved for use in the industry [4]. - Bell Company’s stock fell by 7% post-earnings report, despite meeting expectations, as it lowered revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter by approximately 3% [4]. - The derivatives market indicated a bearish sentiment towards S&P 500 futures, with estimated net selling ranging from $800 million to $11.2 billion depending on market scenarios [4]. - The overall trading activity in U.S. stock exchanges was lower than the average daily volume for the year, with 17.76 billion shares traded [5]. - The volatility index (VIX) decreased by 225 basis points to 17.35, suggesting a reduction in market anxiety [5]. - A significant portion of S&P 500 constituents, 65%, are currently in a buyback window, expected to rise to 75% soon, indicating increased corporate buyback activity [6]. - The market is showing signs of stabilizing, with a return to a bullish sentiment in options trading, particularly for short-term call options on the S&P 500 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a short-term increase, indicating potential shifts in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Changes - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by over 2 basis points, currently reported at 4.242% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield increased by over 3 basis points, currently reported at 4.885% [1]