04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 反弹抛空 鸡蛋周报 2026/01/10 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：上周国内蛋价走势偏强，节前市场有看涨预期，蛋价跌至低位后养殖环节低价惜售，下游采购低价货源积极性提升，市场流通加快， 不过蛋价上涨后老鸡延淘加剧，大蛋占比明显回升；具体看，黑山大码蛋价周涨0.2元至3元/斤，周内最低2.8元/斤，馆陶周涨0.16元至 2.96/斤，周内最低2.8元/斤，销区回龙观周涨0.21元至3.3元/斤，东莞周涨0.2元至3.11元/斤；存栏仍处偏大，气温低蛋重上升快，整体 市场供应充足，仅小蛋偏紧，需求端随着节日临近、采购加快，下周蛋价或先小落再小涨。 ◆ 补栏和淘汰：受蛋价弱势以及养殖持续亏损的影响，市场补栏情绪延续低迷，因季节性因素，12月份补栏环比小幅增加0.1%，为7918万只， 同比下降幅度13.9%；蛋价反弹无力，养 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of eggs still has a rebound expectation, but the space may be limited due to high supply. The focus of the futures market is whether the future spot price increase can cover the premium given by each contract under the expectation of high inventory and weak demand. Only a price increase exceeding expectations can push up the futures price, which requires excessive elimination, low enough prices, and strong enough stocking expectations. Currently, these conditions are not met. Considering that it is the traditional stocking season for eggs, the spot price has limited room to fall further, but there is no strong driving force for a significant increase. Therefore, the futures market is expected to remain in a weak bottoming state, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: After the National Day, egg prices continued to decline due to sufficient supply and heavy rainfall. However, as prices dropped to a low level, downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and the market circulation accelerated after the weather improved. Egg prices rebounded slightly in the second half of last week. This week, the breeding loss deepened, and the elimination of old chickens accelerated. The average age of chickens remained at a high of 499 days. The prices of large - sized eggs in Heishan, Guantao, and Huilongguan increased, while that in Dongguan decreased. The inventory of laying hens is still high, and the egg - laying rate and egg weight have recovered after the temperature drop. The market has sufficient large and medium - sized eggs and a slight shortage of small - sized eggs. It is expected that egg prices will rise and then stabilize next week, with a slight increase possible in the future [11]. - **Replenishment and Elimination**: Affected by the continuous low egg prices and breeding losses, the national replenishment volume in September decreased to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. Since September, egg prices have been weaker than normal, and due to seasonal factors, the elimination of old chickens has increased significantly. The price of culled chickens has dropped to a multi - year low, and the average age of chickens has further decreased to 499 days, but it is still far from excessive elimination [11]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 30 million compared to August and a year - on - year increase of 6% compared to last year's 1.288 billion. Based on previous replenishment, the inventory is expected to continue to increase, peaking at 1.373 billion in November this year, with a slight increase from the current level. Although it will decline later, it will still remain high, indicating an overall oversupply in the future [11]. - **Demand Side**: The pre - holiday stocking for the Double Festivals is almost over, and post - holiday consumption has become dull. However, as the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs have improved. The consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing it before the Spring Festival [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound in November and December. There is currently no arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: After the National Day, egg prices declined and then rebounded slightly. The prices of large - sized eggs in different regions showed different trends. The inventory of laying hens is high, and after the temperature drop, the egg - laying rate and egg weight have recovered. It is expected that egg prices will rise and then stabilize next week, with a slight increase possible in the future [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: As the spot price declined after the festival, the basis of the futures market returned to a low level, driving the spread to decline [23]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: Due to the weak performance of egg prices during the peak season, the number of old chickens being sold has increased, and the price of culled chickens has dropped significantly. However, the average age of chickens remains at a high of 499 days. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of old - chicken elimination [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Egg - Laying Hen Replenishment**: In September, the national egg - laying hen replenishment volume decreased to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%, affected by low egg prices and breeding losses [33]. - **Culled Chicken Sales**: Since September, due to weak egg prices and seasonal factors, the elimination of old chickens has increased significantly. The price of culled chickens has dropped to a multi - year low, and the average age of chickens has decreased to 499 days, but it is still far from excessive elimination [36]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than expected. Based on previous replenishment, the inventory is expected to continue to increase, peaking at 1.373 billion in November this year. Although it will decline later, it will still remain high, indicating an overall oversupply in the future [38][41]. 3.4 Demand Side - The pre - holiday stocking for the Double Festivals is almost over, and post - holiday consumption has become dull. However, as the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs have improved. The consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing it before the Spring Festival [46]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and has declined month - on - month. The profit is at a seasonally low level [51]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Newly laid eggs are continuously increasing, and the limited number of culled chickens results in a consistently large supply scale. Egg prices in the peak season are weaker than expected, and funds have created a premium in the futures market. The near - month contracts are particularly weak. In the short - term, the futures market may fluctuate due to the expected rebound of spot prices and the volatility risk from high positions at low levels. In the medium - term, the reduction of basic production capacity is limited, so the focus should be on short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic egg prices showed mixed trends, with red eggs slightly stronger and pink eggs still weak. It's the traditional upward cycle, and there are bullish expectations, but price increases are limited due to supply. This week, the culling of chickens increased slightly, chicken prices declined, and the average age of chickens remained high. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.4 yuan to 3 yuan per catty, while in Guantao it decreased by 0.07 yuan to 2.62 yuan per catty. In the sales areas, the price in Huilongguan increased by 0.23 yuan to 3.25 yuan per catty, and in Dongguan it decreased by 0.19 yuan to 2.62 yuan per catty. Supply is abundant, with a high proportion of medium - and small - sized eggs, and large - sized eggs are increasing. Cold - storage eggs are also being sold. Egg prices are expected to stabilize and then rise slightly this week [11][20]. - **Chicken Rearing and Culling**: Since the second half of last year, the number of new chicken rearing has been high due to low costs. However, as breeding losses increase and seasonal factors come into play, the number of new chicken rearing has significantly decreased. In July, the national number of new chicken rearing was 79.96 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%. In June, due to low - price losses, the culling of chickens increased, and the average age of chickens dropped to around 500 days. But since July, with increasing bullish sentiment in the market, the culling of chickens has stagnated, and the average age of chickens has returned to the relatively high level of 506 days [11][33]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of July, the inventory of laying hens in the sample was 1.356 billion, higher than expected, a month - on - month increase of 16 million compared to June and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% compared to last year's 1.277 billion. Assuming normal culling, the inventory is expected to increase further, reaching a peak of 1.367 billion in October this year, a 0.08% increase from the current level. Although it will decline later, the supply will still be excessive [11]. - **Demand Side**: After the plum - rain season, stockpiling consumption has improved. With the upcoming pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the off - season in the first half of the year and reach a consumption peak in the second half of the year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the unilateral strategy, short - sell the 09, 10, and 11 contracts after a rebound, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 1 - 2 months. There is no recommendation for the arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Movement**: Domestic egg prices showed mixed trends last week. Red eggs were slightly stronger, and pink eggs were weak. It's the traditional upward cycle, and there are bullish expectations, but price increases are limited by supply. This week, the culling of chickens increased slightly, chicken prices declined, and the average age of chickens remained high. Egg prices are expected to stabilize and then rise slightly this week [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: After the spot price strengthened, it lost momentum. The current basis is still low, the near - month contracts are under pressure, and the spread between months is suitable for reverse arbitrage [23]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: Previously, more old chickens were culled, and there was over - culling in some areas, causing the price difference between white chickens and culled chickens to decline significantly. Recently, due to the expected price increase in the peak season, the culling of chickens has stagnated [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Egg - Laying Hen Rearing**: Since the second half of last year, the number of new chicken rearing has been high due to low costs. However, with increasing breeding losses and seasonal factors, the number has significantly decreased. In July, the national number of new chicken rearing was 79.96 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% [33]. - **Culled Chicken Culling**: In June, due to low - price losses, the culling of chickens increased, and the average age of chickens dropped to around 500 days. But since July, with increasing bullish sentiment in the market, the culling of chickens has stagnated, and the average age of chickens has returned to the relatively high level of 506 days [36]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of July, the inventory of laying hens in the sample was 1.356 billion, higher than expected, a month - on - month increase of 16 million compared to June and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% compared to last year's 1.277 billion. Assuming normal culling, the inventory is expected to increase further, reaching a peak of 1.367 billion in October this year, a 0.08% increase from the current level. Although it will decline later, the supply will still be excessive [38][41]. 3.4 Demand Side - After the plum - rain season, stockpiling consumption has improved. With the upcoming pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the off - season in the first half of the year and reach a consumption peak in the second half of the year [46]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost has increased slightly but is still low compared to the same period last year. The profit is at a seasonally low level [51]. 3.6 Inventory Side - With the start of spot consumption, the inventory pressure has eased, and there is a seasonal downward trend. However, the inventory is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period [56].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, with a high inventory of laying hens. The egg price has shown signs of stabilization recently after falling to the current level. It is recommended to close out previous short positions for profit and wait and see [16]. - In the short - term, the market sentiment has pushed up the egg price, but the downstream is cautious about high - priced goods and mainly purchases based on sales. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.94 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.57 yuan/jin compared to last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.16 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.51 yuan/jin compared to last Friday. The price in the main producing areas rose strongly this week. As the egg price continued to rise, the terminal was a bit resistant to high - priced goods, and downstream traders were more cautious in purchasing [5]. - The prices of old hens varied. The prices of large - sized old hens like Hy - Line Brown trended upwards, while those of small - sized old hens like Hy - Line Grey continued to decline. The current old - hen slaughter is more significantly affected by the egg price, and the old - hen price is in an adjustment stage [5]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - After the festival, the demand declined, but as the egg price rose, the enthusiasm for purchasing increased, and the shipment volume in the producing areas increased. From May 8th to 15th, the average age of culled hens was 534 days, 1 day less than the previous week. From May 9th to 16th, the slaughter volume of culled hens in the main producing areas was 18.56 million, a 7.5% increase from the previous week [9]. - In April, the inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a 7.2% year - on - year increase, higher than expected. The monthly output of chicks from sample enterprises in April was 46.985 million, a 1.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.5% year - on - year increase. Without considering delayed or concentrated slaughter, the estimated inventory of laying hens from May to August 2025 will be 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively [9]. 3.3 Cost Analysis - As of May 15th, the corn price rose to around 2374 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price fell to 3074 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2584 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.84 yuan/jin for eggs [12]. - This week, the egg price trended upwards, and the egg - farming cost decreased. As of May 16th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.12 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. On May 9th, the expected profit per laying hen was 20.15 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.8 yuan/hen from the previous week [12]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - In the first half of the week, as the egg price rebounded and the Dragon Boat Festival approached, the demand in the selling areas improved, and the sales volume increased. After the stocking ended, the downstream mainly replenished low - priced goods. As of May 1st, the sales volume of eggs in the representative selling areas was 8716 tons, a 1.4% increase from the previous week [15]. - This week, the egg inventory decreased significantly. As of May 15th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1 day, a decrease of 0.33 days from the previous week [15]. - This week, the vegetable price index remained low, and the pork price index also declined. On May 15th, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 86.95, and the average national wholesale price of pork was about 15.96 yuan/kg, slightly lower than the previous week [15]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The overall egg supply is expected to be sufficient, and the egg price has shown signs of stability recently. It is recommended to close out previous short positions for profit and wait and see [16]. - Unilateral trading: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract. - Options: Wait and see. 3.6 Weekly Data Tracking - Inventory: In April, the inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a 7.2% year - on - year increase. The monthly output of chicks from sample enterprises in April was 46.985 million, a 1.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.5% year - on - year increase [9]. - Culling situation: From May 9th to 16th, the slaughter volume of culled hens in the main producing areas was 18.56 million, a 7.5% increase from the previous week. From May 8th to 15th, the average age of culled hens was 534 days, 1 day less than the previous week [9]. - Egg - farming situation: Relevant data on the average price of chicks in the main producing areas and the age of culled hens are presented, but specific values are not detailed in the summary part [23]. - Price difference and basis: Graphs of basis and price differences for different months (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1, etc.) are provided, showing the historical trends of price differences and basis [25][26][28].