1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg futures market showed a volatile upward trend last week, with the main contract hitting a phased high. However, the main contract faced significant resistance around 3,300 yuan. The spot market prices of eggs in production and sales areas declined slightly week - on - week. The chicken苗 price remained flat but was significantly lower year - on - year, indicating weak replenishment confidence in the breeding sector. The supply pressure persists, but the demand has slightly improved. The market has expectations for the seasonal demand improvement during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival, yet the high inventory still suppresses the spot market. Attention should be paid to the culling progress of the breeding sector [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.走势回顾 3.1.1. Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market was volatile and rising. The main contract JD2601 closed at 3,293 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.73% week - on - week, and the JD2605 contract closed at 3,608 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 1.46% week - on - week [14]. 3.1.2. Spot Price - Last week, the average egg prices in the main production and sales areas decreased slightly week - on - week. The average price in the main production areas was 2.91 yuan per catty, down 0.34%, and in the main sales areas was 2.94 yuan per catty, down 1.34% [18]. 3.1.3. Chicken苗 Price - Last week, the average price of commercial chicken苗 in the country was 2.75 yuan per chick, the same as the previous week but down 36.19% year - on - year, reflecting weak confidence and a negative attitude towards replenishment in the breeding sector [22]. 3.1.4. Old Hen Price - Last week, the price of old hens was under pressure. The average price in the sample market was 3.98 yuan per catty, down 1.97% week - on - week [27]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - **In - laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national in - laying hen inventory was 1.311 billion, showing a month - on - month decline. There is an expectation of a decline in the fourth - quarter inventory, but the de - capacity effect is slow, and it is difficult for the inventory to break below 1.3 billion by the end of the year [30]. - **Production Area Shipment**: Last week, the shipment volume in the main egg production areas increased by 1.89% week - on - week but decreased by 20.49% year - on - year [35]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens increased by 2.81% week - on - week, with an average slaughter age of 489 days [39]. 3.2.2. Demand Side - **Sales in Sales Areas**: Last week, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 4.89% week - on - week but decreased by 2.48% year - on - year [43]. - **Arrival in Sales Areas**: In the Beijing market, the arrival increased by 5.75% week - on - week, while in the Guangdong market, it decreased by 3.51% week - on - week [47]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume Analysis**: Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens in the sample slaughter enterprises increased by 2.96% week - on - week [52]. 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the production - link inventory was 1 day, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous Friday, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.26 days, a decrease of 0.14 days [55]. 3.2.4. Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the average breeding cost of laying hens was 3.47 yuan per catty, up 0.29% week - on - week. The breeding profit was - 0.56 yuan per catty, down 3.7% week - on - week. The national average price of corn was 2,266 yuan per ton, up 23 yuan per ton week - on - week, and the national average price of soybean meal was 3,055 yuan per ton, down 19 yuan per ton week - on - week [60]. 3.2.5. Related Products Situation - **White - feather Broiler**: Last week, the national average price of white - feather broilers was 3.5 yuan per catty, stable week - on - week but down 8.14% year - on - year. The average price of white - feather chicken苗 was 3.22 yuan per chick, down 3.88% week - on - week and 31.49% year - on - year [66]. - **817 Small White Chicken**: Last week, the national weekly average price of 817 small white chickens was 3.7 yuan per catty, down 2.12% week - on - week [70]. 3.3. Market Outlook - The main egg contract faced significant resistance around 3,300 yuan, but the bulls did not completely lose ground. Fundamentally, the growth rate of the in - laying hen inventory is decreasing, the spot supply pressure is still being released, the downstream sales have marginally improved, and the cold storage has started to buy at low prices due to the cooling weather. The market has expectations for the improvement of seasonal demand during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival, but the high inventory still suppresses the spot market. Attention should be paid to the culling progress of the breeding sector [71]. 3.4. Operation Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aggressive investors can consider going long lightly after the futures price stabilizes above the 3,300 - yuan integer mark. Conservative investors should wait and see. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [72][73].