Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since January, the spot price of eggs has risen by over 15%, and the futures market has also strengthened. The concentrated release of pre - Spring Festival stocking demand and the marginal shrinkage of supply have supported the market. However, the current inventory of laying hens is still relatively high, and potential supply pressure and post - holiday demand decline expectations may limit price increases. In the long - term, the core driver lies in the pace of production capacity reduction. The inventory of laying hens is expected to turn from an increase to a decrease year - on - year in the second quarter of this year, but short - term price increases face multiple constraints [9][60] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Trend Review (1) Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of egg futures changed to JD2603, with a volatile and slightly upward trend. As of the close on January 16, the main JD2603 contract was reported at 3072 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.39% [6][14] (2) Spot Price - Last week, egg prices in production and sales areas rose together, and the regional price difference continued to narrow. As of January 16, 2026, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.5 yuan per catty, and in the main sales areas was 3.54 yuan per catty [8][17] (3) Basis Situation - Last week, due to the concentrated release of pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, the shipping speed in production areas accelerated, inventory decreased, and the spot premium significantly expanded. As the market was worried about post - holiday demand decline, the futures price increase was restricted. As of last Friday, the main contract JD2603 closed at 3072 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a basis of 428 yuan per 500 kilograms [20] 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Supply Side a. Inventory of Laying Hens - In December, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.295 billion. Since August last year, the inventory has been decreasing monthly but remains at a relatively high level in recent years [29] b. Old Hen Slaughter Volume - Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens decreased slightly. The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample market was 658,500, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53%. The average slaughter age was 487 days, the same as the previous week [33] c. Shipping Volume in Production Areas - As the Spring Festival approached, the market's bullish expectation strengthened, downstream dealers and terminal channels were more active in stocking, and the shipping of eggs in production areas accelerated. Last week, the total shipping volume of the sample market in the main production areas was 7,600.70 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.46% and a year - on - year increase of 26.91% [35] (2) Demand Side a. Sales Volume in Sales Areas - Recently, the downstream stocking atmosphere has been strong, demand has been improving, and sales in sales areas have increased month - on - month. Last week, the sales volume of eggs in representative markets in sales areas was 7,792.88 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.35% and a year - on - year increase of 37.75% [39] b. Old Hen Slaughter Volume - Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens decreased month - on - month. The total slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 2.3249 million, a decrease of 81,000 from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% [42] (3) Inventory Situation - Supported by the consumption peak season, market circulation accelerated. As of January 16, the national production - link inventory was 0.26 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.44 days [45] (4) Egg - Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the cost per catty of eggs was 3.54 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 yuan per catty or 0.57%. The profit was - 0.18 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.24 yuan per catty or 57.14%. The cost of egg - laying hen breeding was 133.57 yuan per hen, a month - on - month increase of 0.47 yuan per hen or 0.35%. The breeding profit was 4.70 yuan per hen, a month - on - month increase of 9.54 yuan per hen [53] (5) Related Product Situation a. White - Feathered Broilers - Last week, the national price of white - feathered broilers decreased month - on - month. The average price in front of the shed was 3.75 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 2.46% [57] b. 817 Small White Chickens - Last week, the price of 817 small white chickens was stable. The national weekly average price was 3.92 yuan per catty, with no change month - on - month [59] 3. Market Outlook - Since January, the spot price of eggs has risen by over 15%, and the futures market has also strengthened. The concentrated release of pre - Spring Festival stocking demand and the marginal shrinkage of supply have supported the market. However, the current inventory of laying hens is still relatively high, and potential supply pressure and post - holiday demand decline expectations may limit price increases. In the long - term, the core driver lies in the pace of production capacity reduction. The inventory of laying hens is expected to turn from an increase to a decrease year - on - year in the second quarter of this year, but short - term price increases face multiple constraints [9][60] 4. Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see, and continuously monitor the pace of production capacity reduction; Arbitrage: None; Options: None [10][61]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the low replenishment in August, the inventory of laying hens has gradually shrunk but remains relatively high. The double 12 e - commerce promotion and New Year's Day holiday effect provide short - term support for demand, but the overall weak consumption pattern remains unchanged. The demand boost is limited. In the short term, the inventory in production and circulation links needs to be digested, and the weak supply - demand balance pattern is difficult to change. It is expected to continue the low - level shock [8][71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1走势回顾 - **Futures Price**: Last week, the egg futures market was weak, and the main contract was switched to 2602. As of last Friday's close, the main egg JD2602 contract was reported at 2,886 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.03%; the egg JD2601 contract was reported at 3,077 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.26% [5][14]. - **Spot Price**: Last week, the egg prices in the national production and sales areas increased month - on - month. The average price in the main production areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, up 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.99%; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.11 yuan per catty, up 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.97% [7][18]. - **Chick Price**: Last week, the average price of commercial chicks in the country was 2.71 yuan per chick, up 0.01 yuan per chick from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.37% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.10% [22]. - **Old Hen Price**: Last week, the old hen price increased month - on - month. The average price of old hens was 4.1 yuan per catty, up 0.02 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 0.49% [26]. 3.2基本面分析 - **Supply Side** - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In November, the inventory of laying hens decreased month - on - month. As of the end of November, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 8.46%. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens in December will still decline slightly [30]. - **Production Area Shipment**: Last week, the shipment volume in the main egg production areas increased month - on - month. The shipment volume in the sample market was 6,357.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.08% [36]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens decreased slightly. The total slaughter volume of old hens was 661,100, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08%; the average slaughter age was 488 days, with a maximum of 500 days and a minimum of 475 days [40]. - **Demand Side** - **Sales in Sales Areas**: Last week, the egg sales in the sales areas decreased month - on - month. The egg sales in the representative markets in the sales areas were 6,432.88 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.05% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [44]. - **Arrival in Sales Areas**: Last week, the arrival in the Beijing market was 81 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 11 trucks; the arrival in the Guangdong market was 513 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 7 trucks [47]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: Last week, the old hen slaughter volume decreased month - on - month. The old hen slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 1.9585 million, a decrease of 124,000 from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% [53]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.95 days, the same as the previous Friday; the circulation - link inventory was 1.35 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous Friday [57]. - **Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit**: Last week, the average breeding cost of laying hens was 3.52 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.45 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 6.25%. The national average price of the corn market was 2,310 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan per ton; the national average price of the soybean meal market was 3,122 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 39 yuan per ton [61]. - **Related Products Situation** - **White - Feathered Broiler**: Last week, the average price of white - feathered chicks was 3.39 yuan per chick, up 0.06 yuan per chick from the previous week; the average price of white - feathered broilers was 3.63 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 1.68% [65]. - **817 Small White Chicken**: The national weekly average price of 817 small white chickens was 3.89 yuan per catty, up 0.07 yuan per catty from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.83% [70]. 3.3后市展望 - Affected by the low replenishment in August, the inventory of laying hens has gradually shrunk but remains relatively high. The double 12 e - commerce promotion and New Year's Day holiday effect provide short - term support for demand, but the overall weak consumption pattern remains unchanged. The demand boost is limited. In the short term, the inventory in production and circulation links needs to be digested, and the weak supply - demand balance pattern is difficult to change. It is expected to continue the low - level shock [8][71]. 3.4操作策略 - **Single - Side**: Temporarily wait and see, and continuously pay attention to the old hen elimination rhythm. - **Arbitrage**: None. - **Options**: None [9][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the low replenishment in August, the inventory of laying hens in production is gradually shrinking but remains at a relatively high level. The Double 12 e - commerce promotion and the New Year's Day holiday support short - term demand, but due to the overall weak consumer end, the boosting effect is limited. In the short term, the inventory in the production and circulation links still needs to be digested, the weak supply - demand balance pattern is difficult to change, and the near - month contracts are restricted by real - world pressure and still have a small adjustment space, and are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [8][65] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1.走势回顾 (Review of Trends) 3.1.1. Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market showed a weak oscillation. As of the close on Friday, the main egg JD2601 contract was reported at 3,117 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 0.29%; the egg JD2605 contract was reported at 3,589 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 0.19% [5][12] 3.1.2. Spot Price - Last week, the egg prices in the national production and sales areas increased month - on - month. The average price in the main production areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 5.15%; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.07 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 4.23% [7][16] 3.1.3. Chicken Chick Price - Last week, the average price of national commercial chicken chicks was 2.75 yuan per chick, remaining the same month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 37.07%. Currently, the breeding end lacks confidence in the future market and has a strong wait - and - see attitude [20] 3.1.4. Old Hen Price - Last week, the price of old hens increased month - on - month. The average price of old hens was 4.03 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 1.26% [23] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - **产区发货量情况 (Production Area Shipment Volume)**: Last week, the shipment volume of the main egg production areas decreased month - on - month. The shipment volume of the sample market was 6,173.67 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.26% [27] - **老母鸡出栏情况 (Old Hen Slaughter Volume)**: Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens decreased slightly. The total slaughter volume of old hens was 664,300, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%; the average slaughter age was 489 days, with a maximum of 503 days and a minimum of 476 days [32] 3.2.2. Demand Side - **销区市场销量 (Sales Volume in Sales Areas)**: Last week, the egg sales volume in the sales areas decreased month - on - month. The egg sales volume of the representative markets in the sales areas was 6,510.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53% [36] - **销区到货情况 (Arrival Volume in Sales Areas)**: Last week, the arrival volume in the Beijing market was 88 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 4 trucks; the arrival volume in the Guangdong market was 605 trucks, a month - on - month increase of 1 truck [40] - **老母鸡屠宰量 (Old Hen Slaughter Volume)**: Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens decreased month - on - month. The slaughter volume of old hens in the sample slaughter enterprises was 2.1259 million, a decrease of 248,700 compared with the previous week, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.47% [41][43] 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.97 days, an increase of 0.02 days compared with the previous Friday; the circulation - link inventory was 1.32 days, an increase of 0.08 days compared with the previous Friday [47] 3.2.4. Egg Chicken Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the average breeding cost of egg chickens was 3.5 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 0.86%. The breeding profit was - 0.45 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.11 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 19.64%. The national average price of the corn market was 2,295 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 29 yuan per ton, and the national average price of the soybean meal market was 3,083 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 28 yuan per ton [51] 3.2.5. Related Product Situation - **白羽肉鸡 (White - Feathered Broilers)**: Last week, the average price of white - feathered chicken chicks was 3.29 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 yuan per chick, with a month - on - month growth rate of 2.17%; the average price of white - feathered broilers was 3.54 yuan per chick, with a month - on - month growth rate of 1.14% [57] - **817小白鸡 (817 Small White Chickens)**: The weekly average price of 817 small white chickens in the national market was 3.78 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.08 yuan per catty, with a month - on - month growth rate of 2.16% [63] 3.3.后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Affected by the low replenishment in August, the inventory of laying hens in production is gradually shrinking but remains at a relatively high level. The Double 12 e - commerce promotion and the New Year's Day holiday support short - term demand, but due to the overall weak consumer end, the boosting effect is limited. In the short term, the inventory in the production and circulation links still needs to be digested, the weak supply - demand balance pattern is difficult to change, and the near - month contracts are restricted by real - world pressure and still have a small adjustment space, and are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [8][65] 3.4.操作策略 (Operation Strategy) - **单边 (Single - Side Trading)**: Hold short positions cautiously and closely monitor the rhythm of old hen culling - **套利 (Arbitrage)**: Wait and see - **期权 (Options)**: Wait and see [8][66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg futures market showed a volatile upward trend last week, with the main contract hitting a phased high. However, the main contract faced significant resistance around 3,300 yuan. The spot market prices of eggs in production and sales areas declined slightly week - on - week. The chicken苗 price remained flat but was significantly lower year - on - year, indicating weak replenishment confidence in the breeding sector. The supply pressure persists, but the demand has slightly improved. The market has expectations for the seasonal demand improvement during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival, yet the high inventory still suppresses the spot market. Attention should be paid to the culling progress of the breeding sector [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.走势回顾 3.1.1. Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market was volatile and rising. The main contract JD2601 closed at 3,293 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.73% week - on - week, and the JD2605 contract closed at 3,608 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 1.46% week - on - week [14]. 3.1.2. Spot Price - Last week, the average egg prices in the main production and sales areas decreased slightly week - on - week. The average price in the main production areas was 2.91 yuan per catty, down 0.34%, and in the main sales areas was 2.94 yuan per catty, down 1.34% [18]. 3.1.3. Chicken苗 Price - Last week, the average price of commercial chicken苗 in the country was 2.75 yuan per chick, the same as the previous week but down 36.19% year - on - year, reflecting weak confidence and a negative attitude towards replenishment in the breeding sector [22]. 3.1.4. Old Hen Price - Last week, the price of old hens was under pressure. The average price in the sample market was 3.98 yuan per catty, down 1.97% week - on - week [27]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - **In - laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national in - laying hen inventory was 1.311 billion, showing a month - on - month decline. There is an expectation of a decline in the fourth - quarter inventory, but the de - capacity effect is slow, and it is difficult for the inventory to break below 1.3 billion by the end of the year [30]. - **Production Area Shipment**: Last week, the shipment volume in the main egg production areas increased by 1.89% week - on - week but decreased by 20.49% year - on - year [35]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens increased by 2.81% week - on - week, with an average slaughter age of 489 days [39]. 3.2.2. Demand Side - **Sales in Sales Areas**: Last week, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 4.89% week - on - week but decreased by 2.48% year - on - year [43]. - **Arrival in Sales Areas**: In the Beijing market, the arrival increased by 5.75% week - on - week, while in the Guangdong market, it decreased by 3.51% week - on - week [47]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume Analysis**: Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens in the sample slaughter enterprises increased by 2.96% week - on - week [52]. 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the production - link inventory was 1 day, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous Friday, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.26 days, a decrease of 0.14 days [55]. 3.2.4. Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the average breeding cost of laying hens was 3.47 yuan per catty, up 0.29% week - on - week. The breeding profit was - 0.56 yuan per catty, down 3.7% week - on - week. The national average price of corn was 2,266 yuan per ton, up 23 yuan per ton week - on - week, and the national average price of soybean meal was 3,055 yuan per ton, down 19 yuan per ton week - on - week [60]. 3.2.5. Related Products Situation - **White - feather Broiler**: Last week, the national average price of white - feather broilers was 3.5 yuan per catty, stable week - on - week but down 8.14% year - on - year. The average price of white - feather chicken苗 was 3.22 yuan per chick, down 3.88% week - on - week and 31.49% year - on - year [66]. - **817 Small White Chicken**: Last week, the national weekly average price of 817 small white chickens was 3.7 yuan per catty, down 2.12% week - on - week [70]. 3.3. Market Outlook - The main egg contract faced significant resistance around 3,300 yuan, but the bulls did not completely lose ground. Fundamentally, the growth rate of the in - laying hen inventory is decreasing, the spot supply pressure is still being released, the downstream sales have marginally improved, and the cold storage has started to buy at low prices due to the cooling weather. The market has expectations for the improvement of seasonal demand during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival, but the high inventory still suppresses the spot market. Attention should be paid to the culling progress of the breeding sector [71]. 3.4. Operation Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aggressive investors can consider going long lightly after the futures price stabilizes above the 3,300 - yuan integer mark. Conservative investors should wait and see. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [72][73].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply - demand mismatch in the egg market remains unchanged, and egg prices are oscillating at the bottom. The near - term futures contracts are suppressed by high short - term production capacity and may not perform well, while the support for the far - term contracts depends on the actual progress of production capacity reduction [9][69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Futures Prices**: Last week, the egg futures market showed a differentiated performance. Near - term contracts declined weakly, and far - term contracts reached a new stage high during the week and then fell back. As of last Friday's close, the main egg contract JD2512 was reported at 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.26%, and the JD2605 contract was reported at 3477 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.17% [6][15]. - **Spot Prices**: Last week, egg prices in the production and sales areas of the country increased month - on - month. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.01 yuan per catty, up 0.1 yuan per catty or 3.43% month - on - month; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, up 0.09 yuan per catty or 3.03% month - on - month [20]. - **Chick Prices**: The average price of commercial chicks in the country last week was 2.76 yuan per chick, up 0.01 yuan per chick or 0.36% from the previous week, with a year - on - year decline of 25.2%. The current utilization rate of hatching eggs is about 50%, and some are as high as 60% - 70%. Medium and large - scale enterprises maintain rigid replenishment, and the overall egg market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [24]. - **Old Hen Prices**: Driven by the slight increase in egg prices in the production and sales areas, the price of old hens rebounded slightly last week. The average price of old hens in the sample market was 4.14 yuan per catty, up 0.02 yuan per catty or 0.49% month - on - month [28]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.311 billion, showing a month - on - month decline. There is an expectation of a decline in the inventory in the fourth quarter, but the effect of production capacity reduction is slow. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens will hardly fall below 1.3 billion before the end of the year [33]. - **Production Area Shipment Volume**: The shipment volume of the main egg production areas decreased month - on - month last week. The shipment volume in the sample market was 6186.06 tons, down 1.81% month - on - month and 18.96% year - on - year [37]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample points last week was 631,200, up 0.64% month - on - month, with an average slaughter age of 494 days, with the highest average age being 510 days and the lowest being 480 days [41]. - **Demand Side** - **Sales Volume in Sales Areas**: The sales volume of eggs in the sales areas increased month - on - month last week. The sales volume of eggs in the representative sales areas was 6501.44 tons, up 0.21% month - on - month and down 4.91% year - on - year [44]. - **Arrival Volume in Sales Areas**: In Beijing, the arrival volume was 95 trucks, up 5 trucks or 5.56% month - on - month; in Guangdong, the arrival volume was 580 trucks, down 35 trucks or 6.42% month - on - month [47]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Analysis**: The total weekly slaughter volume of old hens in the sample slaughter enterprises last week was 2.4775 million, an increase of 99,900 or 4.2% from the previous week [48][50]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 1.1 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.37 days [54]. - **Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit**: The average breeding cost of laying hens last week was 3.44 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan per catty or 0.29% month - on - month. The breeding profit was - 0.43 yuan per catty, up 0.09 yuan per catty or 17.31% month - on - month. Although the breeding profit rebounded slightly, it was still in the loss range [58]. - **Related Products** - **White - Feathered Broilers**: The average price of white - feathered broilers in the country last week was 3.45 yuan per catty, with a month - on - month decline of 1.15% and a year - on - year decline of 8.24%; the average price of white - feathered chicks was 3.35 yuan per chick, down 0.10 yuan per chick or 2.90% month - on - month, with a year - on - year decline of 22.09% [63]. - **817 Small White Chickens**: The weekly average price of 817 small white chickens in the national market was 3.81 yuan per catty, down 0.03 yuan per catty or 0.78% from the previous week [68]. 3.3. Market Outlook The main egg contract encountered obvious resistance near 3240 yuan last week. The futures market lacks supply - demand fundamental support and then started to oscillate and decline. The spot egg price remained between 2.9 - 3.1 yuan per catty, hovering around the feed cost line, and has not significantly stimulated the farmers' willingness to slaughter, resulting in slow production capacity reduction. Therefore, the near - term contracts are suppressed by short - term high production capacity and may not perform well, while the support for the far - term contracts still depends on the actual progress of production capacity reduction [9][69]. 3.4. Operation Strategy - **Single - Side Trading**: Hold short positions cautiously and continuously monitor the culling progress of the breeding end. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the 01 - 05 reverse arbitrage opportunity. - **Options**: Wait and see [10][70].