1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the near - month contracts of eggs are expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 will ease, and the spot price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase is relatively limited. The supply in the second half of the year is uncertain. If the egg price in the first half is high, the supply pressure will increase; if the price is low, the supply will decrease significantly. In the second half of the year, it is the peak consumption season, and the spot price is likely to rise, with the increase depending on the supply situation [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3104, up 3 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3536, down 14; JD09 closed at 3961, down 48 [2] - **Cross - month Spreads**: 01 - 05 spread was - 432, up 17; 05 - 09 spread was - 425, up 34; 09 - 01 spread was 857, down 51 [2] - **Price Ratios**: 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.36, up 0.00; 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 0.99, down 0.01; 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; 05 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.27, down 0.02; 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.74, down 0.02; 09 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.38, down 0.02 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day. The average price in the main sales areas was 3.28 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [2][4] - **淘汰鸡 Prices**: The average price of 淘汰鸡 in the main production areas was 4.05 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][7] 3.3 Fundamental Information - **Production and Sales Areas Prices**: The national mainstream egg prices mostly increased. The prices in the main production areas such as Northeast China, North China, and Central China generally rose. The price of eggs in Beijing's major markets increased by 3 yuan per box [4] - **In - production Laying Hens**: In December, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and an increase of 5% year - on - year, lower than expected [5] - **Chick Hatchlings**: In December, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [5] - **Hen Culling**: In the week of December 18, the national main production area's hen culling volume was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age was 486 days, the same as the previous week [5] - **Egg Sales**: As of the week of December 18, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7023 tons, with little change from the previous week, at a low level over the years [5] - **Profit**: As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, slightly recovering from the previous week. On December 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [6] - **Inventory**: As of the week of December 18, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly decreasing from the previous week. The weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly increasing from the previous week [6] 3.4 Trading Logic - In the near term, the demand side has improved, and the near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 will ease, and the spot price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival. In the second half of the year, due to the uncertainty of supply and the peak demand season, the spot price is likely to rise, but the increase depends on the supply situation [8] 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: It is expected that the near - month contracts will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Consider building long positions in the far - month contracts at low prices [9] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price dropped significantly in early August, and the start of the peak - season spot market was late this year. The market pressure emerged in late July, and the cold - storage egg outflow hit the market. The supply pressure is large, with a greater price correction this year compared to previous years. The peak - season price increase logic is weakening, causing the near - month contracts to decline continuously. The 09 contract has squeezed out the premium, and the futures market sentiment is extremely low. The near - month contracts may still be bearish in the long - term, and there are risks in taking long positions. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter if the low egg price affects the subsequent replenishment volume [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts 2509, 2510, and 2511 all declined. The 2509 contract dropped 4.19%, the 2510 contract fell 2.21%, and the 2511 contract decreased 2.60%. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.23 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.42 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin [7]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The current supply pressure is high, and the peak - season price increase logic is weakening. The near - month contracts are under pressure, and the futures market sentiment is negative. The large - scale direction of near - month contracts may be bearish, and there are risks in taking long positions. A fundamental inflection point may occur in the late fourth quarter [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens**: As of the end of July, the national in - production laying hens' monthly inventory was about 1.356 billion, showing an upward trend, with a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024. The decrease in the replenishment volume in July was the first this year [9]. - **Hen Culling**: From the first to the third week as of August 14, the national hen culling volume showed a downward trend. As of August 14, the average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week and one day later than last month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to the egg market, including the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profit, the basis of the egg 09 contract, the price difference between egg 09 - 10, the average price of eggs in the main production areas, and the seasonal trend of egg 09 [16][13][12]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **Contract performance**: The 2508 contract closed at 3445, down 46 or 1.32%; the 2509 contract closed at 3579, down 30 or 0.83%; the 2510 contract closed at 3368, down 7 or 0.21% [7] - **Spot price**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.49 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 2.82 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day [8] Core View - The expectation of a large inventory of laying hens this year was reflected in the spot price earlier. With the arrival of the summer peak season, the futures market had solid bottom support last week, and it was expected that the peak season would lead the spot market out of the slump. However, egg prices continued to fall over the weekend, mainly due to the weakness in the northern red egg - producing areas and poor sales in Beijing, the main sales area. The failure of the price - increase expectation led to a sharp decline in the futures market today, and market sentiment turned extremely weak [8] Operational Suggestions - In the short term, the technical breakdown of peak - season contracts and the difficulty of the spot market to rise in the short term may continue to suppress the futures market, but it is not advisable to be overly bearish. The market's point of divergence lies in when the spot price will stop falling and enter the peak season. It is recommended to observe the recent culling rhythm and summer temperature changes and conduct phased operations [8] Group 3: Industry News - **In - production laying hens inventory**: As of the end of May, the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in the country was about 1.334 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.2% [9] - **Chick - hatchling volume**: In May, the monthly hatchling volume of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 44.98 million, slightly less than that in April and slightly higher than the same period in 2024 [9] - **Culling volume**: As of the first three weeks of June 6, the national culling volumes were 19.97 million, 21.02 million, and 19.53 million respectively. The culling volume gradually recovered after May, with four consecutive weeks of month - on - month increases and a slight decline this week. As of June 12, the average culling age was 512 days, 3 days earlier than last week and 22 days earlier than last month [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes data charts such as China's monthly inventory of in - production laying hens, egg - farming profit, average price in the main egg - producing areas, seasonal trend of the egg 07 contract, basis of the egg 07 contract, and the 08 - 09 spread of eggs, with data sources including Wind,卓创资讯, and交易法门 [10][17][19]