研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 03 月 02 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3618 | 3645 | -27 | 01-05 | 212 | 216 | -4 | | JD05 | 3406 | 3429 | -23 | 05-09 | -402 | -388 | -14 | | JD09 | 3808 | 3817 | -9 | 09-01 | 190 | 172 | 18 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.54 | 1.57 | -0.03 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.20 | 1.21 | -0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.43 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the near - month contracts of eggs are expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 will ease, and the spot price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase is relatively limited. The supply in the second half of the year is uncertain. If the egg price in the first half is high, the supply pressure will increase; if the price is low, the supply will decrease significantly. In the second half of the year, it is the peak consumption season, and the spot price is likely to rise, with the increase depending on the supply situation [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3104, up 3 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3536, down 14; JD09 closed at 3961, down 48 [2] - **Cross - month Spreads**: 01 - 05 spread was - 432, up 17; 05 - 09 spread was - 425, up 34; 09 - 01 spread was 857, down 51 [2] - **Price Ratios**: 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.36, up 0.00; 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 0.99, down 0.01; 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; 05 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.27, down 0.02; 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.74, down 0.02; 09 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.38, down 0.02 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day. The average price in the main sales areas was 3.28 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [2][4] - **淘汰鸡 Prices**: The average price of 淘汰鸡 in the main production areas was 4.05 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][7] 3.3 Fundamental Information - **Production and Sales Areas Prices**: The national mainstream egg prices mostly increased. The prices in the main production areas such as Northeast China, North China, and Central China generally rose. The price of eggs in Beijing's major markets increased by 3 yuan per box [4] - **In - production Laying Hens**: In December, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and an increase of 5% year - on - year, lower than expected [5] - **Chick Hatchlings**: In December, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [5] - **Hen Culling**: In the week of December 18, the national main production area's hen culling volume was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age was 486 days, the same as the previous week [5] - **Egg Sales**: As of the week of December 18, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7023 tons, with little change from the previous week, at a low level over the years [5] - **Profit**: As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, slightly recovering from the previous week. On December 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [6] - **Inventory**: As of the week of December 18, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly decreasing from the previous week. The weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly increasing from the previous week [6] 3.4 Trading Logic - In the near term, the demand side has improved, and the near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 will ease, and the spot price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival. In the second half of the year, due to the uncertainty of supply and the peak demand season, the spot price is likely to rise, but the increase depends on the supply situation [8] 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: It is expected that the near - month contracts will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Consider building long positions in the far - month contracts at low prices [9] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price dropped significantly in early August, and the start of the peak - season spot market was late this year. The market pressure emerged in late July, and the cold - storage egg outflow hit the market. The supply pressure is large, with a greater price correction this year compared to previous years. The peak - season price increase logic is weakening, causing the near - month contracts to decline continuously. The 09 contract has squeezed out the premium, and the futures market sentiment is extremely low. The near - month contracts may still be bearish in the long - term, and there are risks in taking long positions. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter if the low egg price affects the subsequent replenishment volume [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts 2509, 2510, and 2511 all declined. The 2509 contract dropped 4.19%, the 2510 contract fell 2.21%, and the 2511 contract decreased 2.60%. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.23 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.42 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin [7]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The current supply pressure is high, and the peak - season price increase logic is weakening. The near - month contracts are under pressure, and the futures market sentiment is negative. The large - scale direction of near - month contracts may be bearish, and there are risks in taking long positions. A fundamental inflection point may occur in the late fourth quarter [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens**: As of the end of July, the national in - production laying hens' monthly inventory was about 1.356 billion, showing an upward trend, with a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024. The decrease in the replenishment volume in July was the first this year [9]. - **Hen Culling**: From the first to the third week as of August 14, the national hen culling volume showed a downward trend. As of August 14, the average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week and one day later than last month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to the egg market, including the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profit, the basis of the egg 09 contract, the price difference between egg 09 - 10, the average price of eggs in the main production areas, and the seasonal trend of egg 09 [16][13][12]