1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent sharp rise in the price of the main May contract of eggs is due to the increase in feed costs and good market sales. However, considering the current loose supply in the fundamentals and the high price of the May contract, and the limited trading time approaching the position limit, it is not recommended to chase the rise of eggs. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3731, up 7 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3453, down 49; JD09 closed at 3789, down 16 [2]. - **Cross - Month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread closed at 278, up 56; the 05 - 09 spread closed at - 336, down 33; the 09 - 01 spread closed at 58, down 23 [2]. - **Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.58, up 0.01; the 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.23, up 0.01. Other ratios also had corresponding changes [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.41 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.54 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. Most national mainstream prices remained stable, with some local fluctuations [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 5.02 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][6]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of culled chickens was 5.02 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged; the average price of corn was 2451 yuan, down 2 yuan; the average price of soybean meal was 3268 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - chicken compound feed was 2.70 yuan, unchanged [2]. - **Profits**: The profit per chicken was 15.29 yuan, up 0.98 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The monthly output of chicks in sample enterprises in February was about 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 5%. As of the week of March 19, the sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas was 6898 tons, an increase of 7.2% from the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [4][5]. - **Culled Chicken Situation**: In the week of March 19, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was 15.4 million, an increase of 5.8% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 505 days, the same as the previous week [5]. - **Inventory and Profit**: As of March 19, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.17 days, the same as the previous week. The average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.22 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week; the expected profit of egg - chicken farming on March 19 was - 10.39 yuan per chicken, an increase of 0.2 yuan per chicken from the previous week [5]. 3.5 Trading Logic - The sharp rise in the price of the main May contract of eggs is due to the increase in feed costs and good market sales. However, considering the current loose supply in the fundamentals and the high price of the May contract, and the limited trading time approaching the position limit, it is not recommended to chase the rise of eggs [7]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory on the supply side is high, the elimination of old laying hens is slow, and the overall supply is sufficient. The demand side is in the off - season after the festival. After the Lantern Festival stocking, the terminal consumption is weak, the sales are average, and the spot price maintains a low - level shock. However, with the resumption of work and production of enterprises, the market sales have improved slightly, the feed cost is relatively stable, and the breeding is mostly in a state of breaking even or small profit. The market sentiment is highly divided. From the perspective of the futures market, boosted by the general rise of commodities, the egg futures hit a high and then fell back today, and generally continued to close higher, but the pressure of high inventory still exists, and short - term participation is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3427 yuan/500 kilograms, with a decrease of 7226 compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9010 hands. The monthly spread between May and September contracts is - 425 yuan/500 kilograms. The trading volume of the active contract is 156507 hands, a decrease of 19256 hands. The registered warehouse receipt volume is 2 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.08 yuan/jin, and the basis (spot - futures) is - 349 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 69 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 109.28 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 2.75. The national elimination laying hen index is 124.98 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 23.8. The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.5 yuan/feather, an increase of 0.2. The national new - born chick index is 71.99 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 21.63. The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, with no change. The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.35 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.14. The average price of eliminated hens in the main production areas is 9.88 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.02. The average age of eliminated hens in the country is 500 days, with no change [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 17.06 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04. The average wholesale price of pork is 5.02 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08. The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.18 days, a decrease of 0.08. The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.29 days, an increase of 0.05. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 14898.72 tons, an increase of 1853.2 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 4278 tons, a decrease of 2112 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.14 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20 compared to yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 5.79 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.14; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.20 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.10 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the good profit performance in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption enters the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg prices have weakened the overall capacity reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3618, down 27 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3406, down 23; JD09 closed at 3808, down 9 [2]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: 01 - 05 spread closed at 212, down 4; 05 - 09 spread closed at - 402, down 14; 09 - 01 spread closed at 190, up 18 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.54, down 0.03; 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.20, down 0.01. Similar changes were seen in other contracts [2]. 2. Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.17 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin. Most regions' egg prices remained stable, with normal sales [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 4.89 yuan/jin, up 0.23 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][6]. 3. Profit Calculation - **Cost and Profit**: The average price of culled chickens was 4.89 yuan/jin, up 0.23; the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04. The profit per feather was 2.71 yuan, up 3.52 from the previous day [2]. 4. Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: In February, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The monthly output of chicken seedlings in February was about 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a 5% year - on - year decrease [4]. - **Culling Situation**: In the week of February 26, the culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas was 8.78 million, a 42% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 501 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Sales Volume**: As of the week of February 26, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 4278 tons, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [6]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of February 26, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.35 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/jin from the previous week; the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.85 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.27 yuan/feather. The average production - link inventory was 1.29 days, an increase of 0.05 days; the average circulation - link inventory was 1.18 days, a decrease of 0.08 days [6]. 5. Trading Logic - Due to the good early - stage profit, the market's culling enthusiasm has decreased, and the overall capacity reduction has slowed down. Considering the off - season of egg consumption after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg prices have weakened the overall capacity reduction [7]. 6. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the near - month contracts of eggs are expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 will ease, and the spot price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase is relatively limited. The supply in the second half of the year is uncertain. If the egg price in the first half is high, the supply pressure will increase; if the price is low, the supply will decrease significantly. In the second half of the year, it is the peak consumption season, and the spot price is likely to rise, with the increase depending on the supply situation [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3104, up 3 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3536, down 14; JD09 closed at 3961, down 48 [2] - **Cross - month Spreads**: 01 - 05 spread was - 432, up 17; 05 - 09 spread was - 425, up 34; 09 - 01 spread was 857, down 51 [2] - **Price Ratios**: 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.36, up 0.00; 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 0.99, down 0.01; 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; 05 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.27, down 0.02; 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.74, down 0.02; 09 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.38, down 0.02 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day. The average price in the main sales areas was 3.28 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [2][4] - **淘汰鸡 Prices**: The average price of 淘汰鸡 in the main production areas was 4.05 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][7] 3.3 Fundamental Information - **Production and Sales Areas Prices**: The national mainstream egg prices mostly increased. The prices in the main production areas such as Northeast China, North China, and Central China generally rose. The price of eggs in Beijing's major markets increased by 3 yuan per box [4] - **In - production Laying Hens**: In December, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and an increase of 5% year - on - year, lower than expected [5] - **Chick Hatchlings**: In December, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [5] - **Hen Culling**: In the week of December 18, the national main production area's hen culling volume was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age was 486 days, the same as the previous week [5] - **Egg Sales**: As of the week of December 18, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7023 tons, with little change from the previous week, at a low level over the years [5] - **Profit**: As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, slightly recovering from the previous week. On December 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [6] - **Inventory**: As of the week of December 18, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly decreasing from the previous week. The weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly increasing from the previous week [6] 3.4 Trading Logic - In the near term, the demand side has improved, and the near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 will ease, and the spot price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival. In the second half of the year, due to the uncertainty of supply and the peak demand season, the spot price is likely to rise, but the increase depends on the supply situation [8] 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: It is expected that the near - month contracts will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Consider building long positions in the far - month contracts at low prices [9] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price dropped significantly in early August, and the start of the peak - season spot market was late this year. The market pressure emerged in late July, and the cold - storage egg outflow hit the market. The supply pressure is large, with a greater price correction this year compared to previous years. The peak - season price increase logic is weakening, causing the near - month contracts to decline continuously. The 09 contract has squeezed out the premium, and the futures market sentiment is extremely low. The near - month contracts may still be bearish in the long - term, and there are risks in taking long positions. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter if the low egg price affects the subsequent replenishment volume [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts 2509, 2510, and 2511 all declined. The 2509 contract dropped 4.19%, the 2510 contract fell 2.21%, and the 2511 contract decreased 2.60%. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.23 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.42 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin [7]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The current supply pressure is high, and the peak - season price increase logic is weakening. The near - month contracts are under pressure, and the futures market sentiment is negative. The large - scale direction of near - month contracts may be bearish, and there are risks in taking long positions. A fundamental inflection point may occur in the late fourth quarter [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens**: As of the end of July, the national in - production laying hens' monthly inventory was about 1.356 billion, showing an upward trend, with a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024. The decrease in the replenishment volume in July was the first this year [9]. - **Hen Culling**: From the first to the third week as of August 14, the national hen culling volume showed a downward trend. As of August 14, the average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week and one day later than last month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to the egg market, including the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profit, the basis of the egg 09 contract, the price difference between egg 09 - 10, the average price of eggs in the main production areas, and the seasonal trend of egg 09 [16][13][12]