鸡蛋期货收升水逻辑

Search documents
市场快讯:蛋价承压回落,期货再度交易收升水逻辑
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 07:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, due to the continuous rise in inventory, egg prices face downward pressure and will maintain a weak trend [3]. - Medium - term, the combination of concentrated culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak may drive a phased rebound in spot prices from August to September, but the rebound high depends on the culling rhythm, and currently the culling is less than expected, so the high should not be overly optimistic [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Performance - The main contract of egg futures dropped sharply today. As of the time of writing, the 2509 contract fell to 3409 yuan/500 kg, a decline of 2.71% [3]. Spot Performance - Recently, the social inventory level has been continuously rising, and the weak egg price trend over the weekend continued. On August 3, the spot price of Guantao powder eggs was 2.84 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday [3]. - According to Zhuochuang Information, the national laying - hen inventory in July was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.19% and a year - on - year increase of 6.19%. The theoretical estimated laying - hen inventory in August is 1.363 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.52% [3]. Analysis Logic - Short - term, the continuous rise in inventory leads to downward pressure on egg prices, and the prices will run weakly [3]. - Medium - term, concentrated culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak may drive a phased rebound in spot prices from August to September, and the rebound high depends on the culling rhythm, with the current culling being less than expected [3]. Operation Suggestions - Last week, it was continuously suggested to maintain a high - short trading idea for the 2509 and 2510 contracts, and the trading strategy has been verified by the market. Currently, it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. The lower support for the 2509 contract is temporarily at 3390 - 3400, and for the 2510 contract, it is at 3230 - 3240. If the support is effective, partial profit - taking can be considered [3].
市场快讯:蛋价承压回落期货再度交易收升水逻辑
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 06:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term egg prices are under pressure to correct and will maintain a weak trend due to the continuous rise in inventory [3]. - Mid - term, the combination of concentrated culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak may drive a staged rebound in spot prices from August to September, but the rebound high depends on the culling rhythm, and currently the culling is less than expected, so the high should not be overly optimistic [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Performance - The main contract of egg futures dropped significantly with a gap today. As of the time of writing, the 2509 contract fell to 3409 yuan/500 kilograms, a decline of 2.71% [3]. Spot Performance - The social inventory level has been rising recently, and the egg price weakness continued over the weekend. On August 3, the spot price of Guantao powder eggs was 2.84 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday [3]. - In July, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.19% and a year - on - year increase of 6.19%. The theoretical estimated value of the laying - hen inventory in August is 1.363 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.52% [3]. Analysis Logic - Short - term, the continuous rise in inventory causes egg prices to face correction pressure and maintain a weak trend [3]. - Mid - term, concentrated culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak may drive a staged rebound in spot prices from August to September, and the rebound high depends on the culling rhythm [3]. Operation Suggestions - Last week, it was continuously suggested to maintain a high - selling strategy for the 2509 and 2510 contracts, and the trading strategy has been verified by the market. Currently, it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. The lower support for the 2509 contract is temporarily at 3390 - 3400, and for the 2510 contract, it is at 3230 - 3240. If the support is effective, partial profit - taking can be considered [3].
市场快讯:蛋价跌势不改,期货再度交易收升水逻辑
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 09:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Egg supply is stable, supply pressure is continuously released, and the spot price may remain weak and low in the short term [5]. - Medium - term: Newly - opened laying hens are increasing, the theoretical inventory of laying hens is on the rise, and the supply pressure at mid - year is high. If the spot price stays low in July, large - scale culling by the farming end may lead to a phased supply reduction, and combined with the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak, it may drive a phased rebound in the spot price from August to September, but the rebound high is not overly optimistic [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Performance - The main egg futures contract broke through support and fell. As of the time of writing, the 2508 contract dropped to 3477 yuan/500 kilograms, with a decline of 2.99% [3][6]. Spot Performance - The recent spot price has remained weak and low. On the 7th, the egg price in Guantao, Handan, Hebei was 2.44 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from last Friday [4]. Analysis Logic and Operation Suggestions - Analysis Logic: In the short - term, the supply is stable and the spot price is weak. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is high at mid - year, and there may be a phased rebound from August to September [5]. - Operation Suggestions: The main contract first trades the logic of closing the premium. After the spot price bottoms out, it may trade the consumption peak logic. The 08 contract operates in a wide range with upper pressure at 3600 - 3650 and lower support at 3400 - 3450. The 09 contract maintains a short - selling idea with short - term pressure at 3700 - 3720 and support at 3500 - 3550. Also, pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts [5].