Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The futures are continuously squeezing the premium, and the price of the main egg futures contract has broken through the support level and declined. The price of the 2510 contract dropped to 3112 [1][5]. - In the short - term, the spot market is under pressure from loose supply and is in a low - level shock. In the medium - term, the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption season may drive a phased rebound in the spot market in late August and early September, but the rebound high depends on the rhythm of culling hens. Currently, the culling of hens is less than expected and the cold - storage egg inventory pressure is large. In the long - term, if the egg - laying hen breeding profit turns positive in the third quarter and the culling of hens is less than expected, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Performance - The futures price is in yuan per 500 kilograms, with a decline of 2.54% [2]. Spot Performance - The egg price rebounded slightly over the weekend, but the Hebei spot price declined again today. The egg price in Guantao, Handan, Hebei is 2.69 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.07 yuan per catty from the previous day [3]. Trading Strategy - The morning report today indicated that the 2509/2510 contracts entered the short - position profit - taking range. After taking profits on short positions in the 2509 contract, it is recommended to wait and see. The 2510 contract still maintains the idea of high - selling in bands. If it effectively breaks below 3150, it is expected to open up further downward space, which has been verified by the market. Currently, pay attention to the support effect at 3100. If the support at 3100 is effectively broken, the support will move down to 3000 - 3050. - The morning report also indicated that if the spot market is expected to strengthen, the 2512 and 2601 contracts may still have some downward space, which has also been verified by the market [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Egg supply is stable, supply pressure is continuously released, and the spot price may remain weak and low in the short term [5]. - Medium - term: Newly - opened laying hens are increasing, the theoretical inventory of laying hens is on the rise, and the supply pressure at mid - year is high. If the spot price stays low in July, large - scale culling by the farming end may lead to a phased supply reduction, and combined with the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak, it may drive a phased rebound in the spot price from August to September, but the rebound high is not overly optimistic [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Performance - The main egg futures contract broke through support and fell. As of the time of writing, the 2508 contract dropped to 3477 yuan/500 kilograms, with a decline of 2.99% [3][6]. Spot Performance - The recent spot price has remained weak and low. On the 7th, the egg price in Guantao, Handan, Hebei was 2.44 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from last Friday [4]. Analysis Logic and Operation Suggestions - Analysis Logic: In the short - term, the supply is stable and the spot price is weak. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is high at mid - year, and there may be a phased rebound from August to September [5]. - Operation Suggestions: The main contract first trades the logic of closing the premium. After the spot price bottoms out, it may trade the consumption peak logic. The 08 contract operates in a wide range with upper pressure at 3600 - 3650 and lower support at 3400 - 3450. The 09 contract maintains a short - selling idea with short - term pressure at 3700 - 3720 and support at 3500 - 3550. Also, pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - After the holiday, eggs enter the seasonal demand off - season, with high egg - laying hen inventory and large pressure from newly - opened egg - laying hens. Egg supply is sufficient. The humid and hot weather increases storage costs, and downstream dealers are cautious in purchasing, so egg prices may remain lower than the same period. However, if the spot price remains low, it may increase the enthusiasm for old hen culling and reduce the enthusiasm for replenishment, which is beneficial to the long - term price. Pay attention to the impact of spot prices on egg - laying hen inventory. The low spot price drags down the futures price, which is generally weak [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 2897 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 41 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1118 hands, an increase of 4666 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is 194 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 28 yuan; the futures trading volume (active contract) is 121212 hands, a decrease of 8968 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 2.86 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 35 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 13 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 112.35 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.09; the national culled laying hen index is 96.76 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 21.67; the average price of egg - laying chicken chicks in the main production areas is 4.1 yuan/chick, a decrease of 0.05 yuan; the national new chick index is 138.68 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 23.55; the average price of egg - laying chicken compound feed is 2.78 yuan/kg, unchanged; the egg - laying chicken breeding profit is - 0.36 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 0.09 yuan; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 9.58 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.66 yuan; the national culled chicken age is 510 days, a decrease of 6 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.59 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.32 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.37 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.07 days, a decrease of 0.18 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 0.97 days, a decrease of 0.2 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 10714.73 tons, a decrease of 506.3 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 8750.9 tons, a decrease of 58.1 tons [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 5.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan compared with yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.33 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.20 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Beijing, it is 6.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan [2] Key Points to Watch - No news today [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in egg futures prices is attributed to rising feed costs driven by trade issues and a subsequent increase in spot egg prices, which has provided support for futures contracts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - From April 1 to April 16, egg futures prices increased by 7.4%, with the main contract reaching 3078 yuan per 500 kg, up 2.87% on April 16 [2][3]. - The average price of eggs in major production areas rose from 3.06 yuan per jin to approximately 3.4 yuan per jin since early April [3][4]. - The main contract's open interest reached 173,000 lots, the highest in three years, indicating intense market speculation [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Egg consumption demand has been consistently increasing, supported by a 4.6% year-on-year growth in retail sales, with restaurant income rising by 4.7% in the first quarter [5]. - Despite a 5.21% year-on-year decline in egg sales volume to 68,210 tons, significant increases were noted in major markets like Beijing and Guangdong, with Beijing's supply up 19.1% [5]. - The inventory levels of laying hens remain high, with 1.318 billion hens recorded in March, a 6.8% year-on-year increase, indicating a stable supply [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts express caution regarding future price trends, emphasizing the need to monitor feed costs and the culling of laying hens, which could impact supply [7]. - Current egg prices are near the breakeven point for poultry farming businesses, suggesting that producers may not actively cull hens despite rising prices [7][9]. - The outlook for egg prices post-September appears weaker, with concerns about potential losses in the poultry industry by 2026, although optimism remains for 2025 [9].