免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 59 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 2992 | -45397 | -7280 | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(5-9):(日,元/500千克) 0 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | -459 | 219525 | 113657 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) 0 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 鸡蛋现货价格(日,元/斤) 0.03 基差(现货-期货 ...

鸡蛋产业日报 2025-12-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3124 | -29 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -31630 | -7028 | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(1-5):(日,元/500千克) | -457 | 27 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 132996 | -13490 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 0 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 鸡蛋现货价格(日,元/斤) | 3.06 | 0.02 基差(现货-期货)(日,元/500千克) | -62 | 48 | | 上游情况 | 产蛋鸡存栏指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 114.24 | -1.02 淘汰产蛋鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 114.44 | -10.19 | | | 主产区平均价:蛋鸡苗(周,元/羽) | 2.85 | 0.15 新增雏鸡指数:全国(月, ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The short - term near - month contracts may be in a wide - range oscillation state. Spot prices remain low, the breeding end is still in a loss state, and the market's enthusiasm for replenishment is poor, which is beneficial to forward prices. However, the in - production inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and there is no excessive culling of old hens, and high production capacity still restricts market price performance [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 3201 yuan/500 kilograms, with a decrease of 92 compared to the previous period; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 34306 hands, with a decrease of 12799 hands; the monthly spread (1 - 5) of egg futures is - 392 yuan/500 kilograms, with a decrease of 77; the futures holding volume (active contract) of eggs is 170082 hands, with a decrease of 566 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.12 yuan/jin, with an increase of 0.07; the basis (spot - futures) is - 82 yuan/500 kilograms, with an increase of 166 [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 114.24 (2015 = 100), with a decrease of 1.02; the national culled laying hen index is 114.44 (2015 = 100), with a decrease of 10.19; the average price of layer chicks in the main producing areas is 2.7 yuan/feather, with no change; the national new - born chick index is 67.09 (2015 = 100), with a decrease of 9.56; the average price of layer compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, with no change; the breeding profit of layer hens is - 0.41 yuan/feather, with an increase of 0.05; the average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 7.6 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.16; the national culling age of chickens is 510 days, with an increase of 3 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 17.8 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.03; the average wholesale price of pork is 5.86 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.07; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.89 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.32; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.2 days, with an increase of 0.15; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.1 days, with an increase of 0.09; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, with an increase of 178.74 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales area is 7472 tons, with an increase of 88.6 tons [2] Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main producing area, is 6.29 yuan/kg, up 0.20 from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.81 yuan/kg, up 0.18 from yesterday; in Guangdong, it is 6.73 yuan/kg, the same as yesterday; in Beijing, it is 6.40 yuan/kg, up 0.24 from yesterday. The continuous losses at the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the culling volume of old hens, resulting in a slight decline in the laying hen inventory and a slight improvement in the market atmosphere [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the continuous losses in the breeding segment have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for restocking and an increase in the culling of old hens, resulting in a slight drop in the laying - hen inventory and a slightly improved market atmosphere. However, the in - production laying - hen inventory remains at a high level, and there is no excessive culling of old hens. High production capacity is still the main concern in the market. Overall, the market is in a state of game between weak reality and strong expectations. From a market perspective, the egg futures price has rebounded from a low level recently, but the high - production - capacity pressure still exists, which may limit its rebound space, and it may be in a wide - range oscillation state in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3063 yuan/500 kilograms, down 89 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 14372 lots, up 1381 lots; the egg futures monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 221 yuan/500 kilograms, down 17 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 105412 lots, down 13875 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 29 lots, down 6 lots [2]. 现货市场 - The egg spot price is 3.05 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 12 yuan/500 kilograms, up 75 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 115.26 (2015 = 100), up 0.86; the national culled laying - hen index is 124.63 (2015 = 100), up 31.02; the average price of layer chicks in the main production areas is 2.8 yuan/feather, unchanged; the national new - chick index is 76.65 (2015 = 100), up 3.3; the average price of layer compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, unchanged; the breeding profit of layer hens is - 0.47 yuan/hen, down 0.05 yuan; the average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 8.06 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan; the national culling age of hens is 507 days, down 3 days [2]. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.89 yuan/kg, down 0.22 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.77 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.71 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.06 days, down 0.04 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.02 days, down 0.02 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13215.79 tons, up 94.76 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7300 tons, down 358 tons [2]. Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 5.97 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.61 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Guangdong, it is 6.93 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Beijing, it is 6.00 yuan/kg, unchanged [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The egg futures price has rebounded from a low level recently, but the high production capacity pressure still exists, which may limit its rebound space. Investors are advised to be cautious when chasing up [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3,176 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 43 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -8,857 lots, down 1,704 lots [2] - The monthly spread between January and May contracts of egg futures is -122 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 25 yuan; the trading volume of the active egg futures contract is 136,359 lots, down 11,884 lots [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 19 lots, up 13 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.07 yuan per jin, down 0.01 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is -105 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 37 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 115.26 (2015 = 100), up 0.86; the culled laying hen index nationwide is 124.63 (2015 = 100), up 31.02 [2] - The average price of egg - laying chicken chicks in the main production areas is 2.8 yuan per chick, unchanged; the new chick index nationwide is 76.65 (2015 = 100), up 3.3 [2] - The average price of egg - laying chicken compound feed is 2.76 yuan per kilogram, unchanged; the breeding profit of egg - laying chickens is -0.47 yuan per chicken, down 0.05 yuan [2] - The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 8.06 yuan per kilogram, down 0.16 yuan; the age of culled chickens nationwide is 507 days, down 3 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.13 yuan per kilogram, down 0.1 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 5.79 yuan per kilogram, up 0.01 yuan [2] - The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.96 yuan per kilogram, up 0.24 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.06 days, down 0.04 days [2] - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.02 days, down 0.02 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13,215.79 tons, up 94.76 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7,300 tons, down 358 tons [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 5.97 yuan per kilogram, unchanged; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 5.68 yuan per kilogram, up 0.06 yuan; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.93 yuan per kilogram, unchanged; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.20 yuan per kilogram, up 0.16 yuan [2] - The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old chicken culls. The laying hen inventory has slightly decreased, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved [2] Viewpoint Summary - Although the egg futures price has rebounded from a low level, the high production capacity pressure still exists, which may limit its rebound space. Investors are advised to be cautious when chasing up [2] Key Focus - No news today [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous losses in the breeding sector have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the culling of old hens. As a result, the egg - laying hen inventory has slightly decreased, and the market sentiment has improved slightly. However, the inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and there has been no excessive culling of old hens. High production capacity remains the main concern in the market. Recently, the egg futures price has shown a low - level rebound. Nevertheless, the high - capacity pressure still exists, which may limit its rebound space. It is advisable to be cautious about chasing the rise [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 3,227 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 10. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 5,805 lots, a decrease of 4,053 lots. The monthly spread (1 - 5) of egg futures is - 112 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 12. The futures open interest (active contract) of eggs is 166,597 lots, a decrease of 8,266 lots. The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 8 lots, an increase of 3 lots [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 2.99 yuan per catty, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08. The basis (spot - futures) is - 239 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 68 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 115.26 (with 2015 as the base year of 100), an increase of 0.86. The national culled laying hen index is 124.63 (with 2015 as the base year of 100), an increase of 31.02. The average price of egg - laying chicken seedlings in the main production areas is 2.8 yuan per chick, an increase of 0.15. The national new - hatched chick index is 76.65 (with 2015 as the base year of 100), an increase of 3.3. The average price of egg - laying chicken compound feed is 2.76 yuan per kilogram, unchanged. The breeding profit of egg - laying chickens is - 0.42 yuan per chicken, an increase of 0.03. The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 8.22 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.36. The national culling age of chickens is 507 days, a decrease of 3 days [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.06 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.13. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.74 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.03. The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.9 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.19. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.1 days, unchanged. The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.04 days, unchanged. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13,215.79 tons, an increase of 94.76 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7,658 tons, an increase of 160 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 5.77 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.20 compared with yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 5.45 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.07 compared with yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.73 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 5.90 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from yesterday [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishments is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The decrease in temperature has led to a recovery in the laying rate of laying hens, further increasing the supply pressure. However, due to pre - holiday stocking before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the recent purchase volume of traders has increased, and the market demand has shown signs of warming up, pushing up egg prices from the bottom and supporting the futures market. Overall, high - production capacity pressure still exists. As the double festivals approach, pre - holiday stocking may be coming to an end, market sales are starting to slow down, and spot prices show signs of a slight decline. The driving force for pushing up the futures price is also insufficient, so short - term trading is recommended in the near future [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3065 yuan/500 kilograms, down 10 yuan compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10098 hands, an increase of 9051 hands. The egg futures monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 33 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 33 yuan. The trading volume of the active futures contract is 371084 hands, a decrease of 22037 hands. The number of registered warehouse receipts is 0 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.72 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period. The basis (spot - futures) is 659 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 114.4 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 1.22. The national culled laying hen index is 93.61 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 5.59. The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.6 yuan/chick, unchanged. The national new - hatched chick index is 73.35 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 5.05. The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, unchanged. The breeding profit of laying hens is 0.17 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.19 yuan. The average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 9.34 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan. The average age of culled hens in the country is 510 days, a decrease of 2 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 19.56 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.08 yuan. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.98 yuan/kg, unchanged. The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.74 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days. The weekly inventory in the production link is 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13121.03 tons, an increase of 264.92 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7303 tons, a decrease of 149 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 7.32 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.99 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.53 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 7.46 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current egg production capacity is high, with large pressure from newly - opened egg - laying hens and sufficient supply. The temperature drop has increased the egg - laying rate, further exacerbating the supply pressure. However, due to pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market demand has shown signs of recovery, driving up egg prices and supporting the futures market. Recently, short - sellers have covered their positions, causing the futures price to rebound from a low level. But the high - capacity pressure still exists, and short - term trading is recommended in the near future [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3116 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 3. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 8678 hands, a decrease of 4703 hands. The monthly spread between the 1 - 5 egg futures contracts is - 52 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 12. The futures trading volume of the active contract is 437,712 hands, an increase of 22,610 hands. The registered warehouse receipts are 0 hands, a decrease of 3 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.86 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02 yuan. The basis (spot - futures) is 744 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 16 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 113.18 (2015 = 100), an increase of 1.27. The national culled laying hen index is 99.2 (2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.89. The average price of egg - laying chicken chicks in the main production areas is 2.6 yuan/chick, a decrease of 0.4 yuan. The national new - born chick index is 78.4 (2015 = 100), an increase of 2.33. The average price of egg - laying chicken compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, unchanged. The breeding profit of egg - laying chickens is - 0.02 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.21 yuan. The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 9.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan. The national culling age of chickens is 512 days, an increase of 11 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 19.73 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.98 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan. The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3 yuan. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days. The weekly inventory in the production link is 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12,792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7303 tons, a decrease of 149 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong, and Beijing in the main production areas remained unchanged from the previous day. Currently, the laying hen inventory is high, and the supply of eggs is sufficient. The decrease in temperature has increased the egg - laying rate, further increasing the supply pressure [2]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in egg futures have shown signs of a rebound, with significant price movements observed in early September, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - On September 2, egg futures reached a low of 2907 yuan per 500 kg, followed by a rapid increase, closing at 2959 yuan [1] - On September 3, the price continued to rise, peaking at 3014 yuan and closing at 3011 yuan, marking a 2.62% increase [1] - The egg futures index has surpassed 1 million contracts, the highest level in history, reflecting a significant divergence between long and short positions [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Seasonal demand has increased due to school preparations and the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival, although supply pressures may limit significant price increases [2][3] - The holding volume for the 2510 main contract has decreased for three consecutive days, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [2] - Despite a slight rebound in spot prices, the overall demand remains weak, with prices in major production areas showing a decline before September [2][3] Group 3: Production Insights - The egg production rate is expected to recover as high-temperature periods end, but traders remain cautious about stockpiling due to uncertain demand [3][4] - The enthusiasm for restocking among farmers has decreased, with a notable decline in the number of new chickens being added to production [6] - The age of culled chickens has decreased, indicating a potential reduction in future production capacity [6] Group 4: Price Forecasts - The current market conditions suggest a high probability of wide fluctuations at the bottom of the price range, with egg prices remaining below production costs for many farmers [7][8] - Analysts predict limited upward movement in prices due to abundant supply, despite short-term boosts from seasonal demand [9] - The egg futures market is advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on potential short-term opportunities while avoiding aggressive trading strategies [8][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The futures are continuously squeezing the premium, and the price of the main egg futures contract has broken through the support level and declined. The price of the 2510 contract dropped to 3112 [1][5]. - In the short - term, the spot market is under pressure from loose supply and is in a low - level shock. In the medium - term, the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption season may drive a phased rebound in the spot market in late August and early September, but the rebound high depends on the rhythm of culling hens. Currently, the culling of hens is less than expected and the cold - storage egg inventory pressure is large. In the long - term, if the egg - laying hen breeding profit turns positive in the third quarter and the culling of hens is less than expected, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Performance - The futures price is in yuan per 500 kilograms, with a decline of 2.54% [2]. Spot Performance - The egg price rebounded slightly over the weekend, but the Hebei spot price declined again today. The egg price in Guantao, Handan, Hebei is 2.69 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.07 yuan per catty from the previous day [3]. Trading Strategy - The morning report today indicated that the 2509/2510 contracts entered the short - position profit - taking range. After taking profits on short positions in the 2509 contract, it is recommended to wait and see. The 2510 contract still maintains the idea of high - selling in bands. If it effectively breaks below 3150, it is expected to open up further downward space, which has been verified by the market. Currently, pay attention to the support effect at 3100. If the support at 3100 is effectively broken, the support will move down to 3000 - 3050. - The morning report also indicated that if the spot market is expected to strengthen, the 2512 and 2601 contracts may still have some downward space, which has also been verified by the market [4].