| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3065 | -10 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -10098 | 9051 | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(1-5):(日,元/500千克) | -33 | 33 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 371084 | -22037 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 0 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 鸡蛋现货价格(日,元/斤) | 3.72 | 0 基差(现货-期货)(日,元/500千克) | 659 | 10 | | 上游情况 | 产蛋鸡存栏指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 114.4 | 1.22 淘汰产蛋鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 93.61 | -5.59 | | | 主产区平均价:蛋鸡苗(周,元/羽) | 2.6 | 0 新增雏鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 73.35 | -5.05 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current egg production capacity is high, with large pressure from newly - opened egg - laying hens and sufficient supply. The temperature drop has increased the egg - laying rate, further exacerbating the supply pressure. However, due to pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market demand has shown signs of recovery, driving up egg prices and supporting the futures market. Recently, short - sellers have covered their positions, causing the futures price to rebound from a low level. But the high - capacity pressure still exists, and short - term trading is recommended in the near future [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3116 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 3. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 8678 hands, a decrease of 4703 hands. The monthly spread between the 1 - 5 egg futures contracts is - 52 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 12. The futures trading volume of the active contract is 437,712 hands, an increase of 22,610 hands. The registered warehouse receipts are 0 hands, a decrease of 3 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.86 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02 yuan. The basis (spot - futures) is 744 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 16 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 113.18 (2015 = 100), an increase of 1.27. The national culled laying hen index is 99.2 (2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.89. The average price of egg - laying chicken chicks in the main production areas is 2.6 yuan/chick, a decrease of 0.4 yuan. The national new - born chick index is 78.4 (2015 = 100), an increase of 2.33. The average price of egg - laying chicken compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, unchanged. The breeding profit of egg - laying chickens is - 0.02 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.21 yuan. The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 9.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan. The national culling age of chickens is 512 days, an increase of 11 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 19.73 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.98 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan. The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3 yuan. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days. The weekly inventory in the production link is 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12,792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7303 tons, a decrease of 149 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong, and Beijing in the main production areas remained unchanged from the previous day. Currently, the laying hen inventory is high, and the supply of eggs is sufficient. The decrease in temperature has increased the egg - laying rate, further increasing the supply pressure [2]

近日鸡蛋期货出现大幅波动，9月2日鸡蛋期货2510主力早盘触及2907元/500千克低位后，午盘后价格出 现快速上行，最终收报2959元/500千克。9月3日鸡蛋期货延续上涨，盘中最高上冲至3014元/500千克， 最终报收于3011元/500千克，涨幅达2.62%。 "从走势上看，鸡蛋期货有止跌反弹的迹象。当前鸡蛋指数持仓突破100万手，为历史最高持仓水平，多 空分歧巨大。期货价格在连续大跌后，空头集中获利回补减仓带动近月期价出现超跌反弹，而远月合约 受深度亏损下养殖户去产能预期，对近端维持较高升水。"方正中期分析师宋从志接受《华夏时报》记 者采访时表示。 季节性需求有所增强 随着鸡蛋期货连续上涨，有业内人士表示，鸡蛋2510主力合约持仓量已经连续三日下降，尤其是尾盘有 空头平仓的迹象，而且可以看出2511合约近日多头不断增仓入场。不过，也有业内人士表示，学校开学 备货虽对需求端有所提振，但供给高压下，提振力度和持续性皆有不足，蛋价大幅上涨难度较大。 "近日鸡蛋期货2510合约持仓量的确呈现连续下降状态，8月28日持仓量峰值为52.8万张，9月2日收盘持 仓量下降至44.18万张。不过，2511合约呈现的是 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The futures are continuously squeezing the premium, and the price of the main egg futures contract has broken through the support level and declined. The price of the 2510 contract dropped to 3112 [1][5]. - In the short - term, the spot market is under pressure from loose supply and is in a low - level shock. In the medium - term, the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption season may drive a phased rebound in the spot market in late August and early September, but the rebound high depends on the rhythm of culling hens. Currently, the culling of hens is less than expected and the cold - storage egg inventory pressure is large. In the long - term, if the egg - laying hen breeding profit turns positive in the third quarter and the culling of hens is less than expected, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Performance - The futures price is in yuan per 500 kilograms, with a decline of 2.54% [2]. Spot Performance - The egg price rebounded slightly over the weekend, but the Hebei spot price declined again today. The egg price in Guantao, Handan, Hebei is 2.69 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.07 yuan per catty from the previous day [3]. Trading Strategy - The morning report today indicated that the 2509/2510 contracts entered the short - position profit - taking range. After taking profits on short positions in the 2509 contract, it is recommended to wait and see. The 2510 contract still maintains the idea of high - selling in bands. If it effectively breaks below 3150, it is expected to open up further downward space, which has been verified by the market. Currently, pay attention to the support effect at 3100. If the support at 3100 is effectively broken, the support will move down to 3000 - 3050. - The morning report also indicated that if the spot market is expected to strengthen, the 2512 and 2601 contracts may still have some downward space, which has also been verified by the market [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Egg supply is stable, supply pressure is continuously released, and the spot price may remain weak and low in the short term [5]. - Medium - term: Newly - opened laying hens are increasing, the theoretical inventory of laying hens is on the rise, and the supply pressure at mid - year is high. If the spot price stays low in July, large - scale culling by the farming end may lead to a phased supply reduction, and combined with the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak, it may drive a phased rebound in the spot price from August to September, but the rebound high is not overly optimistic [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Performance - The main egg futures contract broke through support and fell. As of the time of writing, the 2508 contract dropped to 3477 yuan/500 kilograms, with a decline of 2.99% [3][6]. Spot Performance - The recent spot price has remained weak and low. On the 7th, the egg price in Guantao, Handan, Hebei was 2.44 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from last Friday [4]. Analysis Logic and Operation Suggestions - Analysis Logic: In the short - term, the supply is stable and the spot price is weak. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is high at mid - year, and there may be a phased rebound from August to September [5]. - Operation Suggestions: The main contract first trades the logic of closing the premium. After the spot price bottoms out, it may trade the consumption peak logic. The 08 contract operates in a wide range with upper pressure at 3600 - 3650 and lower support at 3400 - 3450. The 09 contract maintains a short - selling idea with short - term pressure at 3700 - 3720 and support at 3500 - 3550. Also, pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - After the holiday, eggs enter the seasonal demand off - season, with high egg - laying hen inventory and large pressure from newly - opened egg - laying hens. Egg supply is sufficient. The humid and hot weather increases storage costs, and downstream dealers are cautious in purchasing, so egg prices may remain lower than the same period. However, if the spot price remains low, it may increase the enthusiasm for old hen culling and reduce the enthusiasm for replenishment, which is beneficial to the long - term price. Pay attention to the impact of spot prices on egg - laying hen inventory. The low spot price drags down the futures price, which is generally weak [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 2897 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 41 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1118 hands, an increase of 4666 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is 194 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 28 yuan; the futures trading volume (active contract) is 121212 hands, a decrease of 8968 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 2.86 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 35 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 13 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 112.35 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.09; the national culled laying hen index is 96.76 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 21.67; the average price of egg - laying chicken chicks in the main production areas is 4.1 yuan/chick, a decrease of 0.05 yuan; the national new chick index is 138.68 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 23.55; the average price of egg - laying chicken compound feed is 2.78 yuan/kg, unchanged; the egg - laying chicken breeding profit is - 0.36 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 0.09 yuan; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 9.58 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.66 yuan; the national culled chicken age is 510 days, a decrease of 6 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.59 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.32 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.37 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.07 days, a decrease of 0.18 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 0.97 days, a decrease of 0.2 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 10714.73 tons, a decrease of 506.3 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 8750.9 tons, a decrease of 58.1 tons [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 5.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan compared with yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.33 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.20 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Beijing, it is 6.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan [2] Key Points to Watch - No news today [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in egg futures prices is attributed to rising feed costs driven by trade issues and a subsequent increase in spot egg prices, which has provided support for futures contracts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - From April 1 to April 16, egg futures prices increased by 7.4%, with the main contract reaching 3078 yuan per 500 kg, up 2.87% on April 16 [2][3]. - The average price of eggs in major production areas rose from 3.06 yuan per jin to approximately 3.4 yuan per jin since early April [3][4]. - The main contract's open interest reached 173,000 lots, the highest in three years, indicating intense market speculation [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Egg consumption demand has been consistently increasing, supported by a 4.6% year-on-year growth in retail sales, with restaurant income rising by 4.7% in the first quarter [5]. - Despite a 5.21% year-on-year decline in egg sales volume to 68,210 tons, significant increases were noted in major markets like Beijing and Guangdong, with Beijing's supply up 19.1% [5]. - The inventory levels of laying hens remain high, with 1.318 billion hens recorded in March, a 6.8% year-on-year increase, indicating a stable supply [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts express caution regarding future price trends, emphasizing the need to monitor feed costs and the culling of laying hens, which could impact supply [7]. - Current egg prices are near the breakeven point for poultry farming businesses, suggesting that producers may not actively cull hens despite rising prices [7][9]. - The outlook for egg prices post-September appears weaker, with concerns about potential losses in the poultry industry by 2026, although optimism remains for 2025 [9].