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DLS MARKETS:鲍威尔释放鸽派政策指引,美元兑印度卢比仍走高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 11:33
Group 1 - The Indian Rupee (INR) has weakened against the US Dollar (USD), reaching around 87.60, despite a general dollar sell-off following dovish signals from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [2][3] - Powell indicated that the current economic conditions may warrant adjustments to monetary policy, citing increasing downside risks in the labor market [2][3] - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and India are negatively impacting the performance of the Indian Rupee, preventing it from capitalizing on the dollar's weakness [2][3] Group 2 - The US is expected to increase tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, the highest rate among all trade partners, which could reduce the competitiveness of Indian products in global markets [4] - The Indian government is implementing tax cuts to mitigate the impact of global trade risks and boost domestic consumption, with new Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms anticipated before the Diwali festival [4] - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been withdrawing from the Indian stock market, with a total divestment of ₹257.51 billion in August, contributing to the pressure on the Indian Rupee [4] Group 3 - The Indian stock market initially rose due to the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, but the Nifty50 index is struggling to maintain a critical support level of 24,900 points [4] - The upcoming release of the second-quarter GDP data is expected to be a key catalyst for the Indian Rupee's performance, with the first quarter showing an annualized growth rate of 7.4% [4] Group 4 - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/INR pair remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at approximately 87.35, suggesting a bullish short-term trend [5] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from the 50.00 level, and a breakthrough above 60.00 could generate new bullish momentum [6] - Key support for the currency pair is at the July 28 low of 86.55, while resistance is noted at the August 5 high of 88.25 [6]