2026年开年，全球地缘经济局势持续波动，金融市场不确定性处于高位，黄金再次成为全球投资者关注的焦点。尽管当前国际金价呈现"冲高回落、震荡 运行"的态势，但市场对其未来增长潜力的讨论从未停止。 近日，世界黄金协会美洲区首席执行官兼全球研究负责人Juan Carlos Artigas在接受《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称NBD）专访时，深度解读了2026年黄 金市场的核心驱动力。 他指出，黄金正在经历一场由央行购金需求和避险情绪共同推动的"结构性转变"，并已成为资产配置中不可或缺的流动性护城河。 定价逻辑生变？黄金与美债收益率"脱钩"背后的真相 NBD：你长期将金价表现归纳为四类关键驱动因素：经济扩张、风险与不确定性、机会成本和势能，在2026年当前的宏观环境下，你认为哪个因素是金 价估值的"主引擎"？ Juan Carlos Artigas：黄金的表现始终是这四大因素共同作用的结果。但在2026年，风险与不确定性的进一步上升是支撑当前估值的首要因素。地缘经济 紧张局势的加剧以及金融市场局部的压力，显著提升了市场对黄金这类高质量避险资产的需求。 此外，当前的国际局势也给美元带来了压力，进而降低了持有黄金的机会成本 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that gold is undergoing a structural transformation driven by central bank demand and risk aversion, making it an essential liquidity buffer in asset allocation [2] - In 2026, the primary driver for gold valuation is the rising risk and uncertainty, influenced by geopolitical tensions and financial market pressures, which have increased demand for gold as a high-quality safe-haven asset [3][4] - The traditional negative correlation between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields has weakened, primarily due to other supporting factors like geopolitical risks and strong central bank purchases offsetting the negative impact of rising real interest rates [3][4] Group 2 - Central banks have maintained a net buying trend for 16 consecutive years, indicating a significant structural change in the gold market, despite a slowdown in purchases in 2025 [7][8] - Emerging market central banks hold about 15% of their foreign exchange reserves in gold, which is half of that of developed markets, suggesting substantial growth potential for future gold demand [8] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a reliable, non-sovereign alternative to enhance portfolio resilience and liquidity, especially during market stress periods [10][11] Group 3 - In a volatile inflationary environment, gold is expected to improve risk-adjusted returns in diversified portfolios, particularly as stock-bond correlations rise [13] - The World Gold Council does not predict gold prices but outlines hypothetical scenarios where worsening macroeconomic or geopolitical conditions could drive prices higher [14] - The impact of over-the-counter (OTC) transactions on gold pricing is significant, especially during large institutional or sovereign purchases, highlighting the diverse nature of gold market participants [14]