在此前的文章我们提到，踏空老铺黄金的投资者一部分是看错了25年黄金的走势，另一部分是未认知到黄金是老铺的β。 为什么市场会出现对老铺的认知分化？如何理解老铺和金价的相关性？这是盘桓在每个投资人脑子里的问题，是复杂、看点不一的问题，我们把观点庖 丁解牛，从不同角度去梳理。 0 1 金价越涨，老铺销量越高？ 首先从公司公开数据来看，2023/2024/2025H1营收分别为31.80/85.06/123.54亿元，同比+145.7/+167.5/+251%，毛利率分别为42%/41%/38%。毛利率 下降的原因主要系原材料成本增加。 这其实是老铺和其他黄金珠宝公司不同之处。老铺黄金明确表示，不采用对冲工具（如黄金租赁、期货工具等）来抵消金价波动风险，而是通过月度采 购计划、调整产品"一口价"来动态管理风险。 对于大多数黄金珠宝零售公司而言，他们的商业模式可以概括为——不依赖行情涨跌获利，依靠稳定的工艺附加值(加工费) 实现可持续盈利。 | 时间 | 相化幅度 | | --- | --- | | 2024年3月 | 5-10% | | 2024年9月 | 5-12% | | 2025年2月 | 5-10% | | ...

金属：长周期供给如何主导金价中枢与回撤？20251212 摘要 矿业进入 10-15 年供给放量周期，历史数据显示，黄金价格在此期间可 能经历约 50%的回撤，如 70-80 年代大滞胀及 2000-2010 年 ETF 扩 容后。 黄金牛市中期或后期，投资者关注牛市结束后的回撤幅度，熊市期间 （如 2012-2018 年）金价受宏观经济和供给释放影响而低迷。 2018-2020 年黄金牛市中，供给端未显著释放，企业优先修复资产负 债表，疫情导致需求下降时，金价回撤幅度相对较小，供给紧俏对价格 有支撑作用。 本轮始于 2018 年的牛市或于 2028 年前后进入新的供应放量期，可能 导致下一轮熊市，但技术和资本效率已达极致，地质约束增强，边际投 资回报率可能下降。 1,900-1970 年，全球金矿供应与新矿发现高度相关；之后，技术进步 和资本运作成为主要驱动力，但提升空间有限，地质约束日益重要。 1970-2000 年，技术进步使企业转向开采低品位矿山，矿石品位下降， 全球矿产品产量增加，但金价出现显著回撤。 2016 年至今，新矿发现数量急剧下降，单吨矿石品位已降至极低水平， 大规模资本开支未能有效提升全 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a "slow bull" market, with the Hang Seng Index up 26.32% year-to-date as of August 22, 2025, entering a technical bull market [1] - New consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and hard technology sectors are leading the market, showcasing a revival of vitality and prosperity [1] - Zhaojin Mining has seen its stock price nearly double this year, with a year-to-date increase of close to 100%, making it a notable highlight in the resource sector [1] Group 2 - Zhaojin Mining reported a revenue of 6.973 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant increase of 50.69% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.44 billion yuan, soaring 160.44% year-on-year [1] - The core driver of Zhaojin Mining's strong performance is linked to the price of gold, which influences industry prosperity and the company's competitive edge [1][4] Group 3 - The supply of gold is facing challenges due to the scarcity of new gold mines and limitations in recycling, while demand is bolstered by its use in jewelry, technology, and as a safe-haven asset during economic instability [2] - Geopolitical tensions and central banks increasing their gold reserves are further driving demand for gold [2] Group 4 - The expectation of rising gold prices is supported by various financial institutions, with predictions of gold reaching $3,500 per ounce in the near term and potentially $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [3] - Zhaojin Mining's resource reserves, calculated at 1,446.16 tons of gold, provide a solid competitive advantage, with a significant increase in production [4] Group 5 - Zhaojin Mining's production of gold reached 288,000 ounces in the first half of 2025, a 21.83% increase from the same period in 2024, with total gold production rising to 459,400 ounces [4] - The company has completed 22 high-grade project acquisitions since 2023, significantly expanding its mining rights [4] Group 6 - The Haiyu gold mine, with a resource of 562.37 tons, is expected to be a key growth driver, potentially contributing 6.3 billion yuan in net profit if gold prices rise to 850 yuan per gram [5] - Zhaojin Mining has initiated a "gold resource doubling plan" with a dedicated fund to enhance resource expansion and production growth [5] Group 7 - The true value in the gold mining sector lies in the control of scarce resources rather than short-term price fluctuations, with Zhaojin Mining focusing on strategic expansion to redefine long-term value [6]