Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing extreme volatility following the Independence Day holiday, with significant fluctuations in trading volume and price levels, creating a battleground for bulls and bears [1][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Trading volume in the gold market dropped by 40% due to the early closure of the New York exchange for Independence Day, leading to a liquidity crisis [1]. - Gold prices fluctuated within a narrow range of $3323 to $3330, with a volatility of less than $7, indicating a stagnant market [1]. - A sudden sell-off of 500 contracts pushed prices below the $3320 mark, but aggressive buying from central banks quickly restored prices, highlighting the market's fragility [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows gold prices breaking below the 60-day moving average ($3319) and the 20-day moving average ($3345), indicating a bearish trend [3]. - The 4-hour chart presents a contrasting view, with a long lower shadow at the $3311 low and an RSI divergence suggesting that selling pressure may be waning [3]. - The $3320-$3330 range is identified as a critical battleground, consolidating various technical indicators that could influence future price movements [3]. Group 3: Economic Data Impact - The U.S. Labor Department reported a surprising increase in non-farm payrolls, with 147,000 new jobs added, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 110,000 [5]. - The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, the lowest since the pandemic, but the private sector only added 74,000 jobs, the lowest since October 2024, indicating underlying economic weakness [5]. - The dollar index surged by 55 points, surpassing the 97.4 mark, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6.7 basis points following the employment data release [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors - The gold market is facing three conflicting pressures: diverging policy expectations, easing geopolitical risks, and a surge in central bank gold purchases [5]. - While traders are selling gold in anticipation of delayed interest rate cuts, they are also looking to buy at lower levels due to signs of economic weakness [5]. - Central banks globally, particularly the People's Bank of China, are expected to continue increasing gold reserves, with premiums in the Shanghai gold market rising to $35 per ounce [5]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Traders are advised to employ a "tightrope strategy," placing buy orders at $3323 with a stop-loss at $3316 and a target of $3335, while considering short positions above $3335 [7]. - Attention should be given to potential tariff policies from the U.S., which could influence trading decisions significantly [7]. - The gold-silver ratio has risen to 89.7, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunities as silver prices remain suppressed [7].