下周圣诞假期，圣诞节前偏向震荡回调，圣诞后流动性恢复可能上攻试探。中长期多头未破，有效突破4350上看4380，甚至4400-4450。不过前高4380没有 有效突破前防止二次探高不破，随时可能出现大回落。下方4280多空分水，这里失守可能下探4250、4200。 【汇金趋势掌乾坤，每日思路见真章】 本周黄金周初震荡上行，周四冲高4374次高后获利了结，周五探底回升4356后遇阻回落。周五早盘公开思路也有提出4350的压制空，还是比较符合预期的。 反弹4350不破轻仓试空，突破继续关注4380压制 回落4320和4290支撑不破短多 更多实时关注李槿后续 投资有风险，入行需谨慎 | 12月15日周 | 黄金 | で | 4340 | 4335 | 5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 黄金 | ਝ | 4337 | 4344 | 7 | | | 黄金 | ੜੇ | 4316 | 4326 | 10 | | 12月16日間 | 黄金 | ਝੋ | 4305 | 4292 | -12 | | | 黄金 | ਝ | 4285 | 4295 | 10 | | | ...

【汇金趋势掌乾坤，每日思路见真章】 此前预测22日黄金发生转折，行情精准兑现！ 本周如下，提前公开预测本周转折，所以一直围绕反弹空布局，收获不错。全部真是可溯，李槿从不弄虚作假！ 【操作思路】 黄金周线九连阳后，上行动能衰减，最终以大阴收尾。从技术面分析，周线九连阳后，价格处于相对高位，超买信号明显，本身具备回调需求。周五CPI数 据利多，行情短暂拉升后尾盘还是出现回落。黄金长期上涨趋势不改，但过程注定曲折，短期内难以实现单边上涨行情，个人认为盲目追涨的风险远大于收 益。 下周还有数据，影响不大的话还是在4000-4400大区间震荡洗盘的，未破位前高空低多即可。黄金短期内可能继续在一定区间内震荡，短期关注4060-4250小 区间。周一先关注4100附近多空分水，接近不破短多，继续维持震荡接近4080附近，也是不错多的位置。上方阻力依旧关注4160压制，站稳继续看向4186附 近。 行情波动大，小周期的跨度大，同时小周期的变数还大！操作难度也随之加大，几分钟波动几十个点都是轻而易举的。建议大家做好仓管，拿不准主意的时 候观望或许也是不错的操作手法。 反弹4160附近轻仓空，行情震荡见4186不破空 回落410 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the future price trends of gold, emphasizing its role as a safe-haven asset and the increasing divergence in market expectations for 2025 after gold prices surpassed $2100 per ounce in 2023 [1] Group 1: Key Drivers of Gold Prices - Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with the U.S. 2/10 year Treasury yield curve inversion lasting 18 months, historically leading to rate cuts within 12-24 months [6] - The Federal Reserve's latest projections indicate three rate cuts in 2024 and two more in 2025, potentially resulting in negative real interest rates [6] - The U.S. dollar index has a strong negative correlation with gold at -0.7; a decline in the dollar index from 104 to 95 could theoretically increase gold prices by approximately 15% [7] - Central banks globally purchased 1136 tons of gold in 2023, with the share of U.S. dollars in emerging market reserves dropping below 60% from 67% in 2015, indicating a trend towards de-dollarization [7] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict has driven up energy prices, indirectly increasing gold production costs from $1200 to $1400 per ounce [9] - Global military spending is projected to exceed $2.3 trillion in 2024, a historical high, influenced by tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the Middle East [11] - The freezing of Russian foreign reserves has triggered a "gold substitution trend," with emerging market central banks increasing their gold reserves from 10% to 15% [11] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Conditions - The U.S. core PCE price index has remained above 4% for 28 consecutive months, highlighting persistent service inflation and reinforcing gold's anti-inflation properties [13] - Historical data shows that when CPI exceeds 5%, gold has an annualized return of 18% from 1970 to 2020 [13] - The IMF forecasts global economic growth to drop to 2.7% in 2025, with inflation remaining above 3%, reminiscent of the stagflation environment of the 1970s [13] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Institutional holdings in gold have increased, with SPDR Gold ETF holdings rising from 800 tons to 950 tons, and hedge funds reaching a three-year high in net long positions [15] - Retail demand is also strong, with gold bar and coin sales in Asia increasing by 35% annually, and stable demand of 800 tons during India's wedding season [15] - Key resistance and support levels for gold prices are identified at $2300 (historical high adjusted for inflation) and $1900 (mining cost plus central bank buying psychology) respectively [15] Conclusion - Gold is expected to maintain strategic allocation value in 2025, with multiple factors indicating a likely structural price increase, despite potential short-term pullback risks [17] - The ultimate value of gold lies in its ability to hedge against uncertainty, making it a crucial asset in investment portfolios [17]