伊以地缘政治冲突持续升级，美国频频公开释放军事介入信号，黄金地缘政治风险溢价消退异常迅速。德意志银行称，这种异常表现可能是虚假信号。 6月21日，据追风交易台消息， 德意志银行最新研报中，自上周以来黄金地缘政治风险溢价的迅速消退，与其历史上对类似地缘政治事件的反应相比显得异常 。 在伊以冲突持续升级之际， 现货黄金本周却持续下跌，收于3370美元下方，累计跌超1.8%，为三周以来首次下跌 。就在冲突爆发的上周，现货黄金大幅拉 升，最高逼近3450美元。 不过，德意志银行称， 历史数据表明，黄金的事件风险溢价往往在危机发生后的第8-20个交易日达到峰值，平均涨幅为5.5%（现货价格）和6.3%（模型残 差）。该行认为： 考虑到伊以冲突的严重性和美军的实际调动， 应为黄金在未来几周内重建风险溢价做好准备。 报告称，历史分析显示， 在28个危机事件中，黄金现货价格平均上涨3%，但个别事件的变化幅度差异极大。 从历史上看，类似哈马斯袭击以色列、俄乌冲 突、WHO宣布新冠大流行等重大事件，都曾推动黄金价格显著上涨。 黄金风险溢价消退迅速 德意志银行称，黄金风险溢价迅速消退的表现，也与美国总统自加拿大阿尔伯塔G7峰会提前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid decline of geopolitical risk premium in gold amidst escalating Israel-Iran conflict and U.S. military intervention signals is considered unusual by Deutsche Bank, suggesting it may be a false signal [1][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - Gold prices fell below $3,370, marking a cumulative decline of over 1.8%, the first drop in three weeks, despite the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict [1]. - Historical data indicates that gold's event risk premium typically peaks between the 8th and 20th trading days after a crisis, with average increases of 5.5% for spot prices and 6.3% for model residuals [4][12]. Group 2: U.S. Military Signals - The U.S. President's comments about a potential military strike on Iran within two weeks have intensified the geopolitical context, contrasting with gold's lack of response [5][6]. - Deutsche Bank notes that the U.S. military's actual redeployments, including the B-2 bombers and the Nimitz carrier group, suggest a serious military posture [6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Observations - Historical analysis shows that gold prices typically rise during crises, with an average increase of 3% across 28 crisis events, although individual events can vary significantly [7][14]. - The current conflict's significance is deemed higher than previous events, implying that gold's response should at least match the historical average increase of 3% [14]. - The maximum single response averages for spot prices (5.5%) and model residuals (6.3%) are considered more relevant than the average peak values [14].