Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For the thread and hot-rolled coil market, last week's data showed a decline in the apparent demand and production of thread, and a continued decline in inventory. The inventory of hot-rolled coils has far exceeded the same period after a significant increase and continued to rise this week. Coke and coking coal prices are strong, supporting costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills are expected to reduce production, which may trigger a negative feedback loop. The prices of coking coal and iron ore are showing signs of weakness. Technically, the futures prices of thread and hot-rolled coils have fallen below the 10-day moving average, and now they are supported by the lower Bollinger Band. Traders should wait patiently for stabilization and then go long at low prices for medium-term trading [2]. - In the iron ore market, the iron ore production of sample steel mills continued to decline week-on-week and is expected to continue to decline this week. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills will continue to reduce production, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have declined from their highs, and the arrival volume is expected to decline after some time. The increase in port inventory during the consumption peak season suppresses the futures price, and the slow destocking of steel inventory also dampens market sentiment. With the realization of macro-positive factors, combined with losses and the seasonal decline in terminal demand, the futures price faces certain correction pressure [4]. Summary by Directory I. Thread and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the apparent demand for thread decreased, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. The inventory of hot-rolled coils has far exceeded the same period and continued to rise this week. Coke and coking coal prices are strong, supporting costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills are expected to reduce production, which may trigger a negative feedback loop. The prices of coking coal and iron ore are showing signs of weakness [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K-line chart, the futures prices of thread and hot-rolled coils have fallen below the 10-day moving average, and now they are supported by the lower Bollinger Band. Traders should pay attention to whether they can stabilize in the future [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude, do not chase after rising or falling prices. Wait patiently for stabilization and then go long at low prices for medium-term trading. Do not short when the price is low [2]. - **Related Data**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract is 3025 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the previous day and last week; the closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract is 3242 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day and 0.70% from last week. The 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate is 81.75%, down 2.96 percentage points; the average daily molten iron output is 234.22 million tons, down 0.91%. The national building materials steel mill thread production is 208.54 million tons, down 1.91%; the hot-rolled coil production is 318.16 million tons, down 1.67%. The five major varieties of social inventory are 1075 million tons, down 0.19%; the thread social inventory is 425.7 million tons, down 1.19%; the hot-rolled coil social inventory is 333.02 million tons, up 1.24% [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The iron ore production of sample steel mills continued to decline week-on-week and is expected to continue to decline this week. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills will continue to reduce production, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have declined from their highs, and the arrival volume is expected to decline after some time. The increase in port inventory during the consumption peak season suppresses the futures price, and the slow destocking of steel inventory also dampens market sentiment [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price of the 01 contract has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band and the 10-day moving average, and now traders should mainly pay attention to the support of the lower Bollinger Band. There is resistance above formed by a dense trading area [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and wait patiently for the price to stabilize before going long at low prices [4]. - **Related Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 763 yuan/dry ton, down 0.26% from the previous day and 1.61% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 101.52 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.64% from the previous day and 4.93% from last week. The Australian iron ore shipment volume is 1564.5 million tons, down 4.59%; the Brazilian iron ore shipment volume is 606.9 million tons, down 23.09%. The port inventory is 14898.83 million tons, up 2.45% [4]. III. Industry News - As of November 11, the operating rate of 50 major building material electric furnace steel mills nationwide was 36.4%, a 0.68% increase from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 38.31%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period; the average daily building material output was 8.53 million tons, a 0.07 million tons increase from the previous period [6]. - From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1262.6 million tons, a 45.8 million tons increase from the previous period, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend. The current inventory level is slightly lower than the median since the second half of the year [6]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore ports in 47 ports in China is 15819.49 million tons, a 380.41 million tons increase from last Monday; the total inventory of 45 ports is 15128.19 million tons, a 414.11 million tons increase from the previous period [7]. - During the winter shutdown and production reduction period, Xinjiang is expected to reduce the production of construction steel by about 200 million tons, accounting for about 25% of the estimated total production of construction steel in Xinjiang in 2025. Currently, some steel mills in Xinjiang are still actively promoting the spontaneous production reduction and limitation of other steel mills in winter. Some enterprises with the conditions to export to other regions and Central Asia are increasing their export efforts to reduce the inventory pressure of construction steel in Xinjiang in early 2026 [7].