研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告 不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形 式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铁矿石产业链日报 2026/1/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 798.50 | +15.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 555,392 | -9221↓ | | | I 5-9合约价差（元/吨） | 19.5 | +1.00↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -7506 | -672↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | ...

Supply Side - The prices of coking coal and coke have surged due to a significant reduction in supply, driven by strict safety inspections and production checks in major coal-producing regions as the year-end approaches [1] - Many coal mines have completed their production targets for the year and are shutting down operations early, leading to expectations of decreased output in the coming months [1] - High-quality coking coal, which is already scarce, has seen improved transaction volumes, further supporting price increases [1] Demand Side - Downstream enterprises, particularly coking and steel plants, are increasing their procurement needs as they prepare for winter storage, leading to a rise in demand for coking coal and coke [2] - Concerns about a potential fourth round of price cuts for coke have diminished, boosting the willingness of coking plants to purchase coking coal [2] - Increased heating demand due to lower temperatures in the central and eastern regions after New Year's Day has further elevated overall coal consumption [2] Market Dynamics - The futures market has seen a strong performance, with the main coking coal contract hitting the limit up, which has positively influenced market sentiment and attracted more capital into the market [2] - The entire black series sector, including iron ore and rebar, has also experienced price increases, creating a synergistic effect that enhances the upward momentum of coking coal and coke prices [2] - Positive news, such as price increases announced by major steel mills and local policies encouraging compliance in steel production, has bolstered confidence in the black industry chain [3] Inventory and Policy - As the new year approaches, coal mine production is expected to slightly recover, but there are concerns about poor sales and inventory accumulation at ports [5] - The overall inventory levels across various sectors, including washing plants, coking enterprises, coal mines, ports, and steel mills, have shown a slight increase [5] - The policy focus remains on ensuring stable coal supply for power plants, indicating a continued emphasis on managing coal supply dynamics [5]