Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the future one - month overall operation strategy, it is recommended to be cautious, observe, or defend. For iron ore, in the short - term, hold a cautious and wait - and - see attitude before the basis convergence is basically completed, and in the medium - term, hold a bearish operation idea for far - month contracts such as the 05 contract. For coking coal and coke, adopt a defensive strategy, and in the medium - term, pay attention to demand recovery and the degree of inventory reduction, and be vigilant against supply - demand mismatch disturbances. For steel, sell out - of - the - money call options, and hold a bearish operation idea for far - month futures [1][2][33]. Summary According to the Directory I. Iron Ore: Import Surge and Increasing Inventory Pressure - **Supply**: High ore prices have stimulated production increases. Overseas mines have repaired their profits since August, and the overseas shipping volume in November continued to be high. The commissioning of new mines such as Simandou in Guinea and Mbalam - Nabeba in West Africa will increase the medium - and long - term supply pressure on the global iron ore market. The latest data shows that the overseas ore supply has continued to increase year - on - year since November. The four - week shipping volume of major global ports was 131.422 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.68%, and the four - week arrival volume at 45 ports was 106.443 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.77% [4][7]. - **Demand**: As of the end of November, the profit - making ratio of domestic sample blast - furnace steel mills has dropped to 35.06%, significantly lower than the beginning - of - year level, and the theoretical profit per ton of steel is in an overall loss. Steel mills' production willingness has decreased, and iron ore demand has decreased. In December, due to the low profit per ton of steel and the expanding loss of downstream steel mills, iron ore demand is likely to continue to be weak [11]. - **Inventory and Price**: Since the beginning of August, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports has bottomed out and rebounded, and accelerated to rise to 153 million tons in November. In the long - term, the global iron ore market faces the commissioning pressure of new projects. The Simandou iron ore was commissioned and shipped on November 11th, and is expected to arrive at the port by the end of January at the latest, with an expected monthly import increase of about 1.5 - 2 million tons. The off - season of terminal steel demand and the unclear prospects, as well as the losses of steel mills, will put pressure on ore prices [14]. II. Coking Coal and Coke: Weak Reality Pressure is Emerging, but Be Vigilant Against Repeated Policy - Based Production Restrictions - **Supply**: The domestic production of raw coal by sample mines has remained stable overall. Although the National Development and Reform Commission has emphasized energy supply guarantee during the heating season, there is still a risk of repeated policy - based production restrictions in December, which may lead to a phased mismatch between supply and demand. In terms of imports, the overall imports were at a high level in November due to high domestic prices [16]. - **Demand**: The overall coal demand has entered the off - season. The consumption of coking coal and coke by steel mills has been stable in the short - term, but the subsequent growth space is limited. The winter storage and replenishment rhythm of thermal power plants has slowed down. The winter coal demand is generally lower than that in summer, and the higher - than - normal temperature in the northern region this year has led to poor demand expectations [19]. - **Inventory and Price**: In November, the raw coal inventory and inventory days were still at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, with slow inventory turnover and large inventory pressure, which still suppresses the prices of coal and downstream coking coal and coke. It is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy. In the medium - term, pay attention to demand recovery and the degree of inventory reduction, and be vigilant against supply - demand mismatch disturbances [22]. III. Steel: Disappointing Peak - Season Consumption and Soaring Inventory Pressure - **Production**: Steel mills' profits are low, and production enthusiasm has been frustrated. In November, the profit per ton of steel continued to be under pressure, and the profit - making ratio of blast - furnace steel mills (accounting for 90% of steel supply) dropped to 35.06% at the end of the month, lower than the beginning - of - year level. From January to September, the cumulative output of crude steel decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the output in October continued to decline on the basis of September [26]. - **Demand**: In November, the overall steel consumption was at a low level in the same period in the past five years, mainly dragged down by building materials. Due to insufficient project funds and winter cooling, the construction progress has slowed down, and the consumption of building steel is weak. Although the consumption of steel plates is at a high level in the same period in the past five years, the increase in demand for steel plates is not enough to make up for the decrease in demand for building materials [29]. - **Inventory and Price**: Since October, the crude steel inventory has accelerated to rise to the highest level in the same period in the past five years. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased significantly compared with last year, which increases the potential selling pressure in the steel market, leading to insufficient upward driving force for steel prices and the existence of downward risks [31]. IV. Outlook for the Future: Adopt a Defensive Strategy and Pay Attention to Supply Disturbances - Overall, in December, the supply pressure of furnace materials is likely to continue to increase, and the inventory pressure of terminal steel is gradually emerging. It is recommended to be cautious, observe, or defend in the overall operation strategy in the next month. Pay attention to key variables such as the incremental import of iron ore, changes in port inventory, coal mine production restriction intensity, changes in mine inventory, steel mill production reduction intensity, and the implementation of fiscal policies [33][35].