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2026年投资展望,科技板块“众望所归”
宏观层面,金梓才认为,全球与国内流动性环境预计同步向好,为市场奠定坚实基础。外部来看,美联 储2026年降息节奏或加快,A股面临的外部约束大幅减弱,海外资金环境更趋友好;内部而言,国内货 币政策将持续为经济高质量发展与产业升级提供支持,维持流动性合理充裕。内外部流动性的协同改 善,将有效提升市场风险偏好,为估值修复创造有利条件。 华宝基金认为,在"反内卷"政策进一步深化与落地的节奏下,供给层面的边际变化有望带动PPI进一步 上行,具体幅度取决于"反内卷"和内需政策的合力程度。PPI上行驱动上游和中游行业涨价,如果内需 政策效果进一步显现,价格全面回升,盈利有望进一步向下游传导。"2026年全年,A股盈利增速有望 再上一个台阶,对应各宽基指数的EPS(每股收益)均有望出现较大幅度的提升,但估值提升速度趋缓。" 近期,多家公募机构发布了2026年投资策略展望。多位业内人士表示,2026年的市场值得乐观期待,上 涨动力或将从单一的估值驱动逐渐转向"盈利+估值"双重驱动,上市公司的整体业绩有望进一步改善, 结构性亮点大概率增多,有利于提高市场风险偏好。在众多板块中,科技成为公募机构普遍看好的主线 之一。 整体投资环境 ...
9.24一周年,A股总市值破116万亿元!四大变革重塑中国资本市场新生态
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-24 04:03
Core Viewpoint - The "9·24 market" initiated a significant transformation in the A-share market, marking the beginning of a slow bull market characterized by a focus on technology and leading companies, driven by systemic policy support and a shift in market dynamics [1][19]. Policy Foundation - On September 24, 2024, a comprehensive financial policy package was launched to stabilize the real estate, stock market, and economy, which was a key catalyst for the market rally [2]. - The People's Bank of China introduced new monetary policy tools to support stock repurchases and long-term capital inflows, while the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) encouraged mergers and acquisitions [2][3]. Market Performance - Since the launch of the "9·24 market," the total market capitalization of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges increased from 81.8 trillion yuan to 116.6 trillion yuan, a rise of 42.54% [8]. - The Shenzhen Composite Index saw a cumulative increase of 61.7%, outperforming major global indices such as the Nasdaq and Nikkei [6][7]. Capital Inflows - Foreign capital has shown renewed interest, with net inflows exceeding 10.1 billion USD in the first half of 2025, reversing two years of net outflows [9]. - The shift in capital focus from small-cap stocks to leading companies has created a dual engine of high dividend and technology growth sectors driving the market [9][10]. Industry Dynamics - The financial sector remains dominant, with its market capitalization increasing by 25.18%, while the electronic equipment sector surged by 113%, reflecting a significant structural shift in market leadership [11][12]. - The technology sector has produced notable high-performing stocks, with companies like Cambrian Technology surpassing Kweichow Moutai to become the highest-priced stock in A-shares [12]. Investor Engagement - A positive investment-funding cycle is emerging, with a significant increase in new investor accounts and trading volumes, indicating heightened market activity [15][14]. - The number of new accounts opened in the A-share market reached 2.65 million in August 2025, a 35% month-on-month increase, reflecting growing investor confidence [14]. Future Outlook - The "9·24 market" is seen as a milestone for the A-share market, establishing a foundation for long-term growth driven by systemic policy support and improved market ecology [16][21]. - The transition from a speculative market to a value-driven market is underway, with a focus on sustainable growth and investor protection [21].