英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 深成指及沪指相继刷新阶段新高，连续上涨后还能再介入吗？ 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 2025 年，行业板块涨多跌少，根据 wind 数据，申万一级行业中，有色金属 涨幅 94.73 %居首，通信涨幅 84.75 %位居第二，电子涨幅 47.88 %位居第三，电 力设备、机械设备、国防军工、基础化工板块涨幅均超 30%，传媒、钢铁、汽车、 建筑材料、轻工制造、计算机等板块也表现不错，建筑装饰、房地产、交通运输、 公用事业、美容护理等板块涨幅偏低。下跌方面，食品饮料以-9.69 %跌幅居首， 煤炭以-5.27 %跌幅倒数第二。 2026 年第一个交易日（周一），A 股市场迎来"开门红"。周二 A 股市场延续强 劲涨势，上证指数盘中突破 4034 点此前高点后继续走强，刷新阶段新高。全天 看，两市成交额突破 2.8 万亿元，延续周一放量态势。继周一深证成指率先创下 阶段新高后，周二沪指同步完成突破，目前三大核心指数中仅剩创业板指尚未触 及阶段新高，市场做多情绪已然全面升温。盘面上看，保险券商板块的走强，成 为推动指数拉升的关 ...

宏观层面，金梓才认为，全球与国内流动性环境预计同步向好，为市场奠定坚实基础。外部来看，美联 储2026年降息节奏或加快，A股面临的外部约束大幅减弱，海外资金环境更趋友好；内部而言，国内货 币政策将持续为经济高质量发展与产业升级提供支持，维持流动性合理充裕。内外部流动性的协同改 善，将有效提升市场风险偏好，为估值修复创造有利条件。 华宝基金认为，在"反内卷"政策进一步深化与落地的节奏下，供给层面的边际变化有望带动PPI进一步 上行，具体幅度取决于"反内卷"和内需政策的合力程度。PPI上行驱动上游和中游行业涨价，如果内需 政策效果进一步显现，价格全面回升，盈利有望进一步向下游传导。"2026年全年，A股盈利增速有望 再上一个台阶，对应各宽基指数的EPS(每股收益)均有望出现较大幅度的提升，但估值提升速度趋缓。" 近期，多家公募机构发布了2026年投资策略展望。多位业内人士表示，2026年的市场值得乐观期待，上 涨动力或将从单一的估值驱动逐渐转向"盈利+估值"双重驱动，上市公司的整体业绩有望进一步改善， 结构性亮点大概率增多，有利于提高市场风险偏好。在众多板块中，科技成为公募机构普遍看好的主线 之一。 整体投资环境 ...

截至2025年12月19日，宽基指数来看，沪深300、中证500、中证1000、创业板指处于估值分位数"适 中"等级，上证指数、上证50处于估值分位数"危险"等级。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 上周市场核心观点： 上周（2025.12.15-2025.12.19，下同）A股整体先抑后扬，主要宽基指数量能指标环比上周有所收缩。 资金面方面，股票型ETF资金净流入553.53亿元，大盘主题ETF为净流入主要方向。 从近期市场表现来看，12月中央经济工作会议召开之后市场交易情绪有所提振，资金面表现持续改善，为 市场进一步上行奠定基础。风格方面，短线基本面因子表现持续占优，市场仍处在资金面驱动向基本面驱 动的过渡阶段，基本面驱动或成后市主要交易方向。中长线持续看 ...

2025 年 12 月 23 日 总量研究 基本面驱动或为当前主要交易方向 ——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20251222 要点 上周市场核心观点： 上周（2025.12.15-2025.12.19，下同）A 股整体先抑后扬，主要宽基指数量能 指标环比上周有所收缩。资金面方面，股票型 ETF 资金净流入 553.53 亿元，大 盘主题 ETF 为净流入主要方向。 从近期市场表现来看，12 月中央经济工作会议召开之后市场交易情绪有所提振， 资金面表现持续改善，为市场进一步上行奠定基础。风格方面，短线基本面因子 表现持续占优，市场仍处在资金面驱动向基本面驱动的过渡阶段，基本面驱动或 成后市主要交易方向。中长线持续看好"红利+科技"配置主线。 上周市场各指数涨跌不一，上证综指上涨 0.03%，上证 50 上涨 0.32%，沪深 300 下跌 0.28%，中证 500 下跌 0.00%，中证 1000 下跌 0.56%，创业板指下 跌 2.26%，北证 50 指数下跌 0.13%。 截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，宽基指数来看，沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、 创业板指处于估值分位数"适中"等级，上证 ...

成文日期: 20251215 研究员：张孟威(期货从业咨询证号:F03127896、Z0020205) 报告周期:周报 建材期货周报： 基本面驱动行情 核心观点： 当周（2025.12.08-12.12）建材持续回落，玻璃进入阴跌状态. 短期宏观驱动或告一段落，接下来主导价格的重心或重回基本面。 图 3：螺纹总库存 图 4：浮法玻璃日熔量及开工率 图 5: 总库存 9000 Box Box Back Back Barcel -2024年度 -- -2021年度 122年度 期现市场 宏观方面,当周美联储议息落地,降息 25 个 BP 符合预期,接 下来降息节奏略显鸽派,国内重要会议也圆满结束,政策并未释放 太多增量信息，均在市场预期范围内。 钢厂利润有所改善,但进入周期性淡季,螺纹表需环比也有所 下降,产量仍维持下滑状态,相较表需,产量跌幅更大,库存呈现 持续去化态势,螺纹整体基本面回归供需双弱格局,在无重要事件 驱动的情况下,螺纹或维持震荡。玻璃当周一条产线点火但尚未出 玻璃、周产量基本持稳, 下周 1 条产线有冷修预期,需求端目前仍 以刚性为主,库存周环比稍有下滑,由资金主导的高波动行情或趋 于平缓,随着 ...

近日A股市场出现盘整。个股赚钱效应与市场人气同步减弱的背后，是内外因素交织下的资金集体避险 行为。面对这场调整，一线私募机构展现出了截然不同的应对之策。在11月中旬股票私募平均仓位创下 近112周新高的背景下，有的机构选择高仓位坚守，有的则通过衍生品进行风险对冲，有的机构积极调 整结构，为下一轮行情布局。 ● 本报记者王辉 多因素共振引发市场调整 止于至善则采用了更为精细的风险对冲手段。何理透露："我们在市场处于高位时，会购买一些虚值看 跌期权来保护组合不发生极端回撤。" 涌津投资董事长谢小勇则更关注资金面因素，他认为"海外流动性再收紧"是重要诱因。10月末以来，美 联储态度转鹰，美元指数冲高导致外资资金短期净流出，对A股高估值科技板块形成直接压力。同时， 近期题材炒作监控趋严，两融与游资活跃度快速下降，短线资金被迫降杠杆，形成了"多头回吐"的局 面。 从资金行为角度来看，百亿级私募勤辰资产表示，临近年末，机构资金兑现浮盈等防守性行为自然会导 致市场出现短期波动。这一判断与涌津投资观察到的"年内最活跃的资金在11月集中兑现收益"现象不谋 而合。 另一家百亿级私募淡水泉则从更底层的市场逻辑出发，认为市场定价正从 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.09%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.37%, with mixed performance among tech stocks, including Baidu Group up over 2% and Alibaba up 0.78% [1] - Huaxin Securities noted that the recent adjustment in Hong Kong stocks has been significant, leading to more reasonable valuations, with limited further downside expected. They anticipate that high-certainty sectors will continue to trend upwards despite low risk appetite towards year-end [1] - According to China Merchants Hong Kong, after a period of consolidation in October, pessimistic expectations for Hong Kong stocks are gradually being cleared. They believe that the supply-demand dynamics are improving, which may signal an economic turning point for China [1] Group 2 - GF Securities indicated that Hong Kong stocks may present a new opportunity for investment if the U.S. government shutdown ends and the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance in December. They recommend a barbell strategy focusing on dividend stocks and tech growth for flexibility [2] - Galaxy Securities suggested that as the year-end approaches, market risk appetite may remain cautious, leading to continued volatility in Hong Kong stocks. They recommend focusing on sectors such as cyclical stocks benefiting from rising downstream commodity prices and dividend stocks for defensive positioning [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term urea is expected to move in a volatile manner. The upward trend of spot prices is expected to slow down, and incremental warehouse receipts will gradually put pressure on the upside of futures prices. However, policy support provides a floor for prices [2][3]. - The domestic fundamental pressure on urea is relatively high, but policy regulation weakens the downward - driving force. In November, high production and supply will put pressure on prices, but export policies relieve the pressure [3]. - In the fourth quarter, the domestic market is a "buyer's market". The 01 contract has a strong fundamental resistance level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - Urea's main contract: The closing price was 1,655 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,652 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the trading volume was 231,417 lots, an increase of 89,098 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 256,120 lots, an increase of 2,098 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 6,958 tons, an increase of 146 tons; the trading volume was 764.753 million yuan, an increase of 295.761 million yuan [1]. - Basis: The Shandong regional basis was - 55, down 25; the Fengxi - to - futures basis was - 155, down 15; the Dongguang - to - futures basis (the cheapest deliverable) was - 45, down 15 [1]. - Spread: The UR01 - UR05 spread was - 73, up 4 [1]. Spot Market - Urea factory prices: Henan Xinlianxin was 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,335 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong Ruixing was 1,580 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; Shanxi Fengxi was 1,480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Hebei Dongguang was 1,610 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu Linggu was 1,670 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - Trader prices: The Shandong region was 1,600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Shanxi region was 1,480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [1]. - Supply - side indicators: The operating rate was 84.07%, down 0.34 percentage points; the daily output was 196,680 tons, down 800 tons [1]. Industry News - On November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.99%. The decline was mainly due to the new export policy, but new orders slowed down after the price increase, and some enterprises' inventory first decreased and then increased [2]. - Provinces with decreased enterprise inventory: Anhui, Hainan, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Chongqing. Provinces with increased enterprise inventory: Hebei, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Qinghai, Shaanxi [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the China Securities Xinhua National Brand Index closing at 2029.92 points [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 0.50%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.43% and the brand index decreased by 0.38% [2] Strong Performers - Several constituent stocks showed strong performance last week, with Kingsoft Office rising by 18.09%, Sunshine Power increasing by 15.03%, and Tigermed, Xilitai, and China National Pharmaceutical Group rising by 13.93%, 10.80%, and 7.87% respectively [2] - Other notable performers included Salt Lake Industry, Guocera Materials, and iFlytek, which all saw increases of over 6% [2] Year-to-Date Performance - Since the beginning of the second half of the year, Zhongji Xuchuang has surged by 224.62%, followed by Sunshine Power at 181.89%, and Yiwei Lithium Energy and Zhaoyi Innovation with increases of 82.17% and 74.36% respectively [3] - Other companies such as Lanke Technology and Wuwei Biological have also shown significant gains of over 60% [3] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market volatility has increased significantly since October, with major growth sectors experiencing corrections [4] - Investment perspectives suggest that despite previous gains, quality companies' fluctuations may present buying opportunities [4] - The market is expected to transition from liquidity-driven growth to fundamentals-driven growth, with a strong likelihood of economic recovery supported by ongoing policy efforts [4]

Group 1 - The core index of the Xinhua National Brand Project reported 1956.62 points, with several constituent stocks rising against the market trend [1] - Shanghai Jahwa increased by 9.42%, leading the gains among constituent stocks, followed by Changbaishan at 7.19% and Darentang at 5.34% [1] - The overall market saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 4.99% [1] Group 2 - Since the second half of the year, Zhongji Xuchuang has risen by 156.40%, ranking first in gains, followed by Sunshine Power at 114.27% [2] - The market is expected to maintain upward momentum, with liquidity driving potential growth and fundamental support gradually increasing [2] - Domestic interest rates remain low, and overseas liquidity is expected to remain loose, indicating continued capital allocation towards Chinese equity assets [2] Group 3 - Recent market adjustments are attributed to a decline in global market risk appetite and a shift in investment style towards defensive sectors [3] - The current market environment is characterized by high levels, increased uncertainty, and a slowdown in previous catalysts, leading to cautious trading [3] - Investors are encouraged to seek opportunities in sectors with higher investment certainty, particularly in electronics, new energy, new consumption, and real estate [3]