编者按：辞旧迎新，金马贺岁。值此新春佳节，新浪财经特邀公私募领域数十位领军人物，通过镜头与 文字，为投资者送来马年新春祝福。信心如磐，笃行致远。愿这一声声真挚寄语，伴您策马扬鞭，共赴 投资长路。 中欧瑞博董事长兼首席投资官吴伟志送来新春祝福。他表示，继续走强，缺乏盈利支撑的板块则可能仅 仅是顶部震荡。投资需要精细甄别，聚焦硬资产，告别贝塔思维。建议普通投资者通过ETF或者选择专 业的基金管理人进行投资，以分散风险，并利用专业团队的研究成果。在此，衷心祝愿各位投资者新春 快乐，阖家幸福，投资顺利，马到功成。 祝福全文： 各位客户朋友们，大家新年好。 我是中欧瑞博的董事长兼首席投资官吴伟志。2025年资本市场显著超越预期，政策转向、情绪修复与资 金充裕，共同推动A股走出一轮有基本面支撑的慢牛。 展望2026年，市场整体重心仍会上行，进入基本面驱动阶段。景气度持续向上的行业有望继续走强，缺 乏盈利支撑的板块则可能仅仅是顶部震荡。投资需要精细甄别，聚焦硬资产，告别贝塔思维。建议普通 投资者通过ETF或者选择专业的基金管理人进行投资，以分散风险，并利用专业团队的研究成果。 专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical disturbances in the LPG market still exist, and the fundamental factors are driving the market downward. The supply - demand of propylene is in a tight balance, and the spot price remains stable [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For LPG (PG), on February 12, 2026, the 2603 contract had a closing price of 4,271 with a daily increase of 0.21%, and a night - session closing price of 4,310 with a night - session increase of 0.91%. The 2604 contract had a closing price of 4,529 with a daily decrease of 0.70%, and a night - session closing price of 4,516 with a night - session decrease of 0.29%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 4,447 with a daily decrease of 0.56%, and a night - session closing price of 4,428 with a night - session decrease of 0.43%. For propylene (PL), the 2603 contract had a closing price of 6,278 with a daily increase of 0.61%, and a night - session closing price of 6,246 with a night - session decrease of 0.51%. The 2604 contract had a closing price of 6,215 with a daily decrease of 0.42%, and a night - session closing price of 6,220 with a night - session increase of 0.08%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 6,225 with a daily decrease of 0.75%, and a night - session closing price of 6,228 with a night - session increase of 0.05% [3] - **Spot Market**: For LPG, the Shandong civil LPG price was 4,440, the East China imported LPG price was 5,026, the East China civil LPG price was 4,467 (down 8 from the previous day), the South China imported LPG price was 4,860 (down 5 from the previous day), the South China civil LPG price was 4,750, the Shandong ether - after LPG price was 4,460 (up 10 from the previous day), and the FEI arrival price was 5,002 (down 16 from the previous day). For propylene, the Shandong price was 6,445, the East China price was 6,430, and the South China price was 6,325 [3] - **Industrial Chain开工率**: As of February 13, 2026, the PDH operating rate was 65.57% (up 2.91% from the previous week), the alkylation operating rate was 36.85% (unchanged from the previous week), and the MTBE operating rate was 67.87% (down 0.14% from the previous week) [3] - **LPG Shipping Volume**: On February 12, 2026, from the US to the world, the shipping volume was 32.4 (up 11.9 from the previous day), to Asia was 9.1 (down 4.7 from the previous day), to China was 0.0 (down 4.5 from the previous day), to Japan was 4.5 (unchanged from the previous day), to South Korea was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to India was 4.6 (up 4.6 from the previous day), and to Southeast Asia was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day). From the Middle East to the world, the shipping volume was 6.4 (up 0.3 from the previous day), to Asia was 6.4 (up 0.3 from the previous day), to China was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to Japan was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to South Korea was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to India was 6.4 (up 4.7 from the previous day), and to Southeast Asia was 0.0 (down 2.2 from the previous day) [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [7] 3.3 Market Information - On February 12, 2026, the March CP paper - cargo price of propane was 537 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day), and the butane price was 527 US dollars/ton (down 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day). The April CP paper - cargo price of propane was 522 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day) [8] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. [9] - There are also domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans, such as those of Rizhao (China Overseas), Shenchi Chemical, etc. [9]

Market Overview - The market has entered a phase of narrow fluctuations after a series of gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing mild adjustments since January 13. The overall trend remains stable, with orderly rotation among leading sectors [1] - On Thursday, sectors such as commercial aerospace and mining led the gains, while the semiconductor sector showed signs of slowing down. Over 3,500 stocks rose, indicating improved profitability, although trading volume decreased to 2.7 trillion [1] - The current market adjustment is seen as a healthy consolidation for the spring rally, with the focus on maintaining trading volume and the rotation of hot sectors as key factors for sustaining the market momentum [1] Future Outlook - The market is expected to shift from theme-driven to fundamentals-driven momentum, although technology growth will remain the main focus. The leading sectors since the spring rally have been driven by event-based themes like commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces, which, despite their long-term potential, lack short-term performance support [1] - As the market enters a consolidation phase, trading volume may decline, prompting a renewed focus on sectors driven by performance and fundamentals. The primary driver for the spring rally remains the increase in market risk appetite, with technology growth sectors expected to lead the way [1] Sector Highlights - In January, technology and raw materials sectors showed strong performance, with high-dividend stocks also being a focus for potential gains in the upcoming quarterly report season [2] - Key areas of interest include AI hardware, which is expected to see significant growth leading up to 2026, and the ongoing trend of robot commercialization, which will expand into various types of robots and related components [2] - The semiconductor industry is on a path toward domestic production, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The demand for new energy materials is rising due to rapid growth in domestic and overseas energy storage needs, with signs of supply shortages and price increases expected to continue through 2026 [2] - The innovative drug sector is anticipated to enter a recovery phase after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant divergence, with major indices showing mixed results while over 3,500 stocks are rising, indicating a large-scale "relocation" of funds rather than an exit from the market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a stark contrast, with the electric grid equipment sector experiencing a strong surge, driven by a substantial investment plan from the State Grid amounting to 4 trillion yuan, indicating a long-term growth trajectory [3] - Conversely, the AI application sector and semiconductor stocks are facing significant declines, reflecting a shift of funds away from previously high-flying tech stocks towards sectors with clear policy support and performance pathways [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Focus on identifying opportunities within the electric grid equipment sector, particularly in areas like ultra-high voltage, smart grids, and power IoT, which have not yet fully appreciated in value [4] - Exercise caution with high-flying sectors like AI applications and semiconductors, waiting for signs of stabilization before considering investments [4] - Utilize market volatility to optimize portfolio structure by reallocating from overvalued speculative stocks to sectors with stronger fundamentals and lower valuations, such as electric grid and quality consumer stocks [4] Group 3: Key Market Indicators - The sustainability of the electric grid sector's appeal to investors and the maintenance of active trading volumes will be crucial for market performance moving forward [4]

Market Overview - In 2025, the majority of industry sectors in A-shares experienced gains, with non-ferrous metals leading at a 94.73% increase, followed by communications at 84.75% and electronics at 47.88% [1][10] - The A-share market welcomed a strong start in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high of 4034 points, indicating a bullish trend [2][12] - The total trading volume exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a robust market sentiment and increased participation from investors [2][12] Sector Performance - The insurance and financial sectors were significant contributors to the market rally, with insurance premiums reaching 57.629 billion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, marking a 7.6% year-on-year increase [7][8] - The energy metals, solar equipment, and wind power sectors showed strong activity, driven by ongoing global initiatives towards carbon neutrality and supportive government policies [9][10] Investment Strategy - Despite the upward trend, caution is advised as profit-taking may lead to market corrections; investors are encouraged to wait for pullbacks to enter positions [3][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong earnings to navigate market uncertainties, suggesting a preference for sectors like technology (semiconductors, AI) and cyclical industries (solar, chemicals) [3][11]

Group 1 - The market outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with a shift from valuation-driven growth to a dual driver of "earnings + valuation," leading to improved overall performance of listed companies and increased structural highlights [1][2] - The investment environment is expected to strengthen due to improved global liquidity and the acceleration of AI trends, providing a solid foundation for the market [2] - A-shares are projected to see significant earnings growth in 2026, with EPS for major indices expected to increase substantially, although the pace of valuation improvement may slow down [2] Group 2 - The technology sector is frequently highlighted as a key investment theme, with AI applications anticipated to be a major focus in 2026 [3][4] - The investment logic is shifting from infrastructure to application, as AI's commercial viability in various sectors becomes clearer, creating new investment opportunities [3] - The market is expected to exhibit a "leader concentration" and "fundamental-driven" structural characteristics, with a focus on companies that demonstrate real and sustainable performance [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound after an initial decline during the week of December 15-19, 2025, with major broad-based indices showing a decrease in trading volume compared to the previous week [4] - The net inflow of funds into stock ETFs was 55.353 billion yuan, with large-cap thematic ETFs being the primary focus for net inflows [4] - Following the Central Economic Work Conference in December, market trading sentiment improved, leading to a better funding environment that supports further market growth [4] - Short-term fundamental factors continued to outperform, indicating a transition from a funding-driven market to a fundamental-driven market, with a focus on "dividend + technology" as the main investment theme for the medium to long term [4] Index Performance - The performance of major indices varied, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.03%, the SSE 50 increasing by 0.32%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.28%, the CSI 500 remained unchanged, the CSI 1000 decreased by 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.26% [4] - As of December 19, 2025, the valuation percentiles for the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index were categorized as "moderate," while the Shanghai Composite Index and SSE 50 were classified as "dangerous" [4] Volatility Analysis - The cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 300 index constituents decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a deterioration in the short-term Alpha environment, while the cross-sectional volatility for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 constituents increased, suggesting an improvement in the short-term Alpha environment [5] - Time series volatility for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 constituents increased compared to the previous week, indicating a better Alpha environment [5] Fund Flow Tracking - The top five stocks attracting the most institutional attention last week were Changan Automobile (214 institutions), Yipinhong (119), Boying Welding (115), Huatong Cable (101), and Zuoli Pharmaceutical (95) [6] - During the week of December 15-19, 2025, the net inflow of southbound funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect was 16.274 billion HKD, with the Shanghai Stock Connect experiencing a net outflow of 420 million HKD and the Shenzhen Stock Connect seeing a net inflow of 16.694 billion HKD [6] - The median return for stock ETFs was -0.25% with a net inflow of 55.353 billion yuan, while cross-border ETFs had a median return of -0.86% with a net inflow of 0.902 billion yuan [6]

- **Quantitative sentiment tracking includes volume timing signals** The volume timing signals for major indices as of December 19, 2025, indicate a cautious outlook across all indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext Index, and Beijing 50 Index [22][23] - **Market sentiment indicator: CSI 300 rising stock ratio** The CSI 300 rising stock ratio is calculated as the proportion of constituent stocks with positive returns over the past N days. This indicator captures market sentiment, identifying opportunities during market bottoms and potential risks during overheated phases. As of December 19, 2025, the indicator rose above 60%, reflecting high market sentiment [23][24] - **CSI 300 rising stock ratio timing strategy** The timing strategy smooths the indicator using two different windows (N1=50, N2=35). When the short-term smoothed line exceeds the long-term smoothed line, it signals a bullish market outlook. Conversely, when the short-term line falls below the long-term line, it indicates a neutral stance. As of December 19, 2025, the short-term line was below the long-term line, suggesting a cautious market outlook [25][27] - **Moving average sentiment indicator** The moving average sentiment indicator uses eight moving averages (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) to assess the trend state of the CSI 300 Index. The indicator assigns values based on the position of the current price relative to the moving averages. As of December 19, 2025, the CSI 300 Index was in a non-prosperous sentiment zone [31][34] - **Cross-sectional volatility analysis** Cross-sectional volatility for CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices showed mixed trends. Over the past week, CSI 300 volatility decreased, indicating a deteriorating short-term alpha environment, while CSI 500 and CSI 1000 volatility increased, suggesting improved short-term alpha conditions. Quarterly averages for these indices were in the upper-middle range of the past six months, reflecting a favorable alpha environment [35][36] - **Time-series volatility analysis** Time-series volatility for CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increased over the past week, indicating an improved alpha environment. Quarterly averages for these indices were also in the upper-middle range of the past six months, suggesting a relatively favorable alpha environment [36][39]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the week of December 8 - 12, 2025, building materials continued to decline, and glass entered a state of slow decline [1]. - Short - term macro - driven factors may have ended, and the focus of price determination may return to fundamentals [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Macroeconomic Situation - The Fed's interest - rate decision was announced during the week, with a 25 - basis - point rate cut as expected, and the subsequent rate - cut rhythm was dovish. China's important meeting ended, and the policies did not release much incremental information, all within market expectations [2]. Rebar Market - Steel mill profits improved, but as it entered the off - season, rebar's apparent demand decreased week - on - week. Output continued to decline, with a larger decline than apparent demand. Inventory continued to be reduced, and the overall fundamentals of rebar returned to a pattern of weak supply and demand. Without significant events, rebar may remain volatile [2]. - From the weekly building materials data, rebar output continued to decline week - on - week, apparent demand remained weak, and total inventory continued to be reduced [9]. Glass Market - One glass production line was ignited during the week but had not produced glass yet, and weekly output was basically stable. One production line is expected to undergo cold repair next week. The demand side is currently mainly rigid, and inventory decreased slightly week - on - week. The high - volatility market driven by funds may become stable. As prices continue to fall, glass factories are facing cash - flow losses, which may force them to cold - repair production lines. Under the current fundamentals - driven pattern, glass prices may continue to be weak [2]. - From the weekly building materials data, glass weekly output remained stable week - on - week, inventory decreased, and apparent demand was mainly rigid [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, leading to a collective risk-averse behavior among investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Adjustment Factors - The adjustment is seen as a result of multiple factors, including concerns over the economic fundamentals and a complex external environment, alongside fluctuations in liquidity expectations for December [2]. - The tightening of overseas liquidity, particularly following the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, has led to a net outflow of foreign capital, putting pressure on high-valuation technology stocks in the A-share market [2]. - Defensive behaviors, such as profit-taking by institutional investors as the year-end approaches, have contributed to short-term market volatility [2][4]. Group 2: Private Equity Strategies - Private equity firms are responding to the high market positions with varied strategies, including maintaining high positions, using derivatives for risk hedging, and actively adjusting portfolios for future market conditions [1][4]. - As of November 14, the average stock position of private equity firms reached 81.13%, with large firms holding an even higher average of 87.07%, indicating a high level of market engagement [4]. - Some firms, like Dushuquan, are employing precise risk hedging techniques, such as purchasing out-of-the-money put options to protect against extreme drawdowns [5]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, private equity firms maintain confidence in the long-term market, actively seeking new investment opportunities during the adjustment [7]. - Dushuquan emphasizes that the current market adjustment is a "healthy correction" within a long-term upward trend, which can help optimize market leverage levels and trading structures [8]. - Firms are focusing on sectors with structural growth potential that do not rely on overall economic recovery, particularly in emerging growth areas like AI technology, semiconductor, and new consumption trends [7].