Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of energy security amid the US-Iran conflict and highlights investment opportunities in the construction sector during the upcoming Two Sessions, focusing on major projects, urban renewal, and new productivity infrastructure [1][4]. Section Summaries 1. Investment Opportunities Ahead of the 2026 Two Sessions - The report predicts that the Two Sessions will continue the "proactive fiscal policy + structural monetary easing" approach, with three main focuses: major projects, urban renewal, and new productivity infrastructure. Infrastructure investment growth is expected to rebound from approximately -1% in 2025 to around 6.2% in 2026, becoming a key driver for stabilizing fixed asset investment [12][13]. 2. Mainline Selection - Structural recovery in infrastructure investment is anticipated, particularly in regions like Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Tibet, supported by central government funding. The report suggests monitoring order fulfillment and company PE levels, with a focus on companies such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, Xinjiang Communications Construction, and others [20][22]. 3. Timing Theme Investments - The report identifies urban renewal, underground pipelines, environmental codes, and the Middle East situation as key investment themes. It highlights the importance of urban renewal policies and the expected increase in demand for underground pipeline construction, with over 700,000 kilometers planned for renovation during the 14th Five-Year Plan, requiring over 5 trillion yuan in new investment [4][12]. 4. Left-Side Recommendations - Major construction state-owned enterprises are currently undervalued and have low institutional holdings. The report suggests focusing on companies with strong cash flow management and stable dividend policies, such as China State Construction, China Railway Construction, and others [4][20]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on energy security due to escalating US-Iran tensions, with specific suggestions for companies in chemical engineering, nuclear power, and oil and gas sectors. It also emphasizes the importance of urban renewal and underground pipeline projects, recommending companies like China State Construction and China Communications Construction [4][24]. 6. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides a detailed valuation and financial analysis of key companies in the construction sector, indicating a generally positive outlook with buy ratings for major players such as China State Construction, China Railway, and others, reflecting their potential for growth and recovery [5][18].

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector has experienced a convergence of excess returns over the past month (January 15, 2026 - February 13, 2026), but not all sub-sectors are weakening uniformly. The excess drag is attributed to AI applications influenced by overseas SaaS, while optimistic earnings guidance from recent financial reports has stabilized SaaS stock prices, indicating that the phase of panic may be nearing its end [1][3][9]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - Since mid-January, the technology sector has shown relative convergence with the broader market, but not all sub-sectors are experiencing weakness. AI computing reached new highs in the last trading week before the holiday, while AI applications have shown deeper corrections and weaker recoveries, remaining over 5% below their mid-January peak [3][10]. - The software development sector in A-shares has retreated over 13% from its January 14 high, influenced by rapid declines in U.S. SaaS stocks on January 12 and January 25 due to the impact of ClaudeCowork and OpenClaw [3][10]. - The technology sector's ability to remain a key theme for the year will depend on industry trends and actual earnings performance, with a dual drive from technology and cyclical recovery expected to favor technology if earnings verification occurs [3][10]. Group 2: Sector Allocation and Configuration - The current allocation in the electronics industry exceeds 20%, with the overall TMT sector over-allocated by more than 17 percentage points. However, the current level of allocation does not directly impact future excess returns [4][11]. - The marginal changes in allocation are more closely linked to the current quarter's excess, with limited significance for the next quarter's guidance. The excess return convergence threshold for technology sub-sectors is at 2.5 or higher, with most sub-sectors below this level [4][11]. Group 3: Identifying Certainty in Technology - To identify certainty within the technology sector, two dimensions can be explored: forward-looking financial indicators and industry cycle trends. The "deferred revenue + contract liabilities" metric can provide insights into order conditions, highlighting sectors with accelerating improvements or sustained high growth over the past two quarters [5][12]. - Key sectors showing accelerated improvement include semiconductors, communication equipment, and digital chip design, while those with sustained high growth include consumer electronics and optical components. The DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices have been rising rapidly since Q4 2025, supported by long-term demand in AI servers and enterprise storage [5][12].

今日（2.24），大消费板块冲高回落，盘初一度涨超1%，规模领先的消费ETF（159928）转跌0.64%，盘中成交额已超3.6亿元！资金再度青睐，盘中获2400 万份净申购。最新规模超223亿元，同类持续领先！ 消息面上，春节出行强度提升，春节假期前6日全社会累计跨区域人员流动量增速较春运返乡阶段进一步上行。消费迎来开门红，商品消费需求旺盛、服务 消费活力满满。旅游市场热度高涨，"分段式过年"普及，主题上"南下避寒、北上冰雪"双线并行，出入境旅游双向增长。春节档电影方面，票房明显走弱。 政策面上，高层杂志发表重要文章《当前经济工作的重点任务》；我国将对53个非洲建交国全面实施零关税举措；加大农村地区企业上市辅导培育力度，帮 助更多企业利用多层次资本市场进行融资；三部门发布重要五年规划期间支持科技创新进口税收优惠政策。 东吴证券指出，历史上A股"春节效应"特征显著，节后资金有望"重振旗鼓"带动量价共振修复，A股有望迎来积极开局。春节休市期间全球股市多数上涨， 全球风险偏好较优。流动性层面，美降息路径虽存变数，但市场对全年流动性预期未显著恶化；离岸人民币汇率假期运行平稳。内需方面，动能稳步修复。 产业趋势层面， ...

【机构看好A股马年开局行情】智通财经2月24日电，马年A股的第一个交易日即将到来。春节长假期 间，海外市场整体小幅反弹。美股止跌回升，大宗商品表现强势，原油、黄金和铜价显著上涨。中国资 产方面，富时中国A50指数期货上涨，港股主要指数震荡整理。机构策略报告分析认为，历史上A股"春 节效应"特征显著，节后资金流入带动市场量价共振修复，A股有望迎来积极开局。并且，2026年春节 长假期间全球股市多数上涨，海外资金风险偏好维持高位。产业趋势上，包括机器人、国产大模型在内 的科技主线假期持续发酵，因此机构对节后A股市场表现持乐观判断。（上证报） 转自：智通财经 ...

郭晨凯 制图 上证指数2025年2月5日以来走势图 沪指蛇年上涨25.58% 机构判断节后科技主线有望回归 ◎记者 费天元 东方证券研报认为，中芯国际AI、存储、中高端应用相关的订单呈现增加态势，展望未来，公司有望 凭借在BCD、模拟、存储、MCU、中高端显示驱动等细分领域中的技术储备与领先优势，在本轮行业 发展周期中保持有利位置。 另有多家存储芯片企业2025年业绩预喜。根据业绩预告，模组龙头江波龙预计2025年净利润为12.5亿元 至15.5亿元，同比增长151%至211%；德明利预计2025年实现净利润6.5亿元至8亿元，同比增长85%至 128%。佰维存储、朗科科技等均预告业绩大幅增长或实现扭亏。 除存储芯片外，昨日计算机设备、养殖等2025年业绩向好板块均获得资金关注，相关龙头公司股价上 扬。展望后市，3月开始上市公司年报进入密集披露期，机构普遍提示聚焦绩优方向。 中信证券研报表示，根据业绩预告，2025年A股上市公司业绩预喜比例扩大，科技、金融、周期是最大 亮点，整体呈现"科技驱动、外需支撑、金融压仓"的结构性特征。其中，基础化工、电子、医药、有色 金属、机械等行业业绩超预期个股数量领先，汽车、电 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic operation characteristics of "production stronger than demand, external demand better than internal demand" will persist throughout the year, with a loose monetary policy maintaining a downward trend in interbank interest rates to nearly the lowest level since 2020 [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by weakness combined with a loose liquidity environment, favoring investment in prosperous sectors [1] - The overall tone remains positive, suggesting a focus on "technology + resource products" as dual main lines for investment [1] Group 2: Investment Products - The Guotai 50 ETF (159375) tracks the ChiNext 50 Index (399673), which has a daily price fluctuation limit of 20% [1] - The index selects 50 securities with high average daily trading volumes from the ChiNext market, reflecting the overall performance of well-known, large-cap, and liquid companies [1] - The constituent stocks are primarily concentrated in emerging industries such as power equipment and new energy, pharmaceuticals, and computers, exhibiting high growth and liquidity characteristics [1]

Group 1 - The A500 index components showed mixed performance, with NetEase Technology leading with a 15.51% increase, followed by Hebang Biotechnology at 10.16% and Shanghai Construction at 10.03% [1] - The A500 ETF fund (512050) saw a slight increase of 0.16%, with a latest price of 1.25 yuan, and a trading volume of 72.26 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - The A500 ETF fund's average daily trading volume over the past year was 52.82 billion yuan, and it experienced a significant growth of 2.56 billion yuan in size over the past week [1] Group 2 - Dongguan Securities noted a recent phenomenon of large sell orders in several heavyweight stocks, indicating a market shift from a capital-driven surge to an earnings-driven slow bull market [2] - The A500 index, which tracks the performance of 500 large-cap and liquid stocks across various industries, reflects the overall performance of the most representative listed companies [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index included Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai, and China Ping An, collectively accounting for 20.33% of the index [2]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector remains the main focus of the market, showing continuity despite a slight weakening in momentum, supported by high market risk appetite, reasonable valuations, strong overseas performance, and expectations of global liquidity easing [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext 100 ETF (588120) rose over 3.4% on January 27, indicating a positive trend in the technology sector [1] - The ChiNext 100 Index (000698), which the ETF tracks, includes 100 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity from the ChiNext market, reflecting the overall performance of representative technology innovation companies [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - There is a cautiously optimistic outlook for the technology sector, particularly in sub-sectors that may experience a dual resonance of capital and industrial logic [1] - The index focuses on technology growth style allocation, covering high-tech fields such as information technology and healthcare [1]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector remains the main focus of the market, showing continuity despite a slight reduction in momentum, supported by high market risk appetite, reasonable valuations, strong overseas performance, and expectations of global liquidity easing [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 22, the ChiNext 50 ETF (159375) opened with a gain of over 1.4%, indicating a positive trend in the technology sector [1]. - The ChiNext 50 Index (399673), which the ETF tracks, includes 50 securities with high average trading volumes, focusing on large-cap leading companies [1]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook, particularly in sub-sectors where there may be a dual resonance of capital and industrial logic [1]. - The industry allocation of the ChiNext 50 Index emphasizes emerging growth areas such as electric power equipment and new energy, pharmaceuticals, and information technology, reflecting the overall performance of companies with strong growth and high technological innovation attributes [1].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In early 2026, the market sentiment has significantly warmed up, and the market has risen strongly. However, the risk - return ratio of chasing the rising market may not be high. Thematic investment remains popular, and funds from previously over - heated themes are expected to shift to other thematic sectors [1][7]. - The technology main line is still the market consensus. Funds are likely to flow into sectors such as semiconductor computing power and robotics within the technology sector, while lithium battery, non - ferrous metals, power grid, chemical, and innovative drugs are important supplementary sectors for the market [2][22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Which theme ETFs are expected to be the direction of capital return? - **Market situation**: In early 2026, the market has risen strongly, with commercial aerospace, AI applications, and non - ferrous metals becoming the focus. But there are signs of the market correcting irrational behaviors under regulatory guidance, and the risk - return ratio of chasing the rising market may be low. Thematic investment is still very popular. As of January 19, 2026, the cumulative net capital inflow of thematic index ETFs in the past five days exceeded 42.254 billion yuan, while industry index ETFs only had a net inflow of 9.763 billion yuan, and broad - based index ETFs showed a large net outflow [1][7]. - **Analysis from the perspective of rise and valuation**: Technological industries generally have high rises, while traditional cyclical industries such as liquor, coal, and breeding have relatively low rises. New energy sectors like lithium battery, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicles, as well as the chemical industry, have risen but still have room to reach previous highs. From the valuation dimension, the current valuations of the game, intelligent driving, lithium battery, and breeding sectors are low [8]. - **Analysis using the quadrant chart**: - **First quadrant (high rise and high congestion)**: Mainly includes commercial aerospace, communication, AI, and non - ferrous metals. Non - ferrous metals (such as copper) and AI have relatively moderate congestion, and relevant sectors are still worthy of attention [2][17]. - **Second quadrant (high rise and low congestion)**: There are relatively few relevant industries, mainly semiconductor equipment (including related industrial chains such as storage) and lithium battery. The sector sentiment is not over - heated, and the industrial supply - demand pattern is optimized, so they are still worthy of attention [2][17]. - **Third quadrant (low rise and low congestion)**: Sectors such as innovative drugs, chemicals, and games have both industrial logic and market capacity, with large potential for a supplementary rise. For example, since 2026, the chemical ETF has re - entered the state of net inflow [2][17]. - **Fourth quadrant (low rise and high congestion)**: Includes robotics, power grid equipment, consumer electronics, and software. Power grid equipment has received renewed attention due to the unexpected increase in the 14th Five - Year Plan expenditure, and robotics has also been favored by the market because Tesla's third - generation robot has entered the scheme confirmation stage [2][21]. - **Specific ETF selection**: For ETFs tracking the same index, products with larger scale, relatively lower fees, and smaller tracking errors are selected. Specific ETF lists are provided in the report [22].