Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the performance of the Chinese equity market, specifically the MXCN and CSI300 indices, which dropped by 5.5% and 3.8% respectively amid a global selloff in equities [1][1]. - The offshore Internet sector underperformed, with the HSTECH index declining by 7.2% [1][1]. - The report highlights the introduction of the GS 15th Five-Year Plan Portfolio, which includes 50 mid-cap companies positioned to benefit from policy tailwinds over the next five years [1][1]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The report notes that 88% of all listed companies in China have reported earnings, with 9M/3Q25 earnings rising by 7% and 13% year-over-year [36][36]. - **Policy Developments**: There are indications that Chinese policymakers are considering a new property stimulus package, potentially including mortgage subsidies for first-time home buyers [1][1]. - **Fiscal Data**: On-budget fiscal revenue growth has slightly increased, while fiscal expenditure growth has significantly declined [1][1]. - **Investment Inflows**: Southbound investment saw inflows of US$5.0 billion this week, with year-to-date inflows totaling US$175 billion [1][4]. Earnings and Valuations - The forward price-to-earnings ratios for MXCN and CSI300 are reported at 12.3x and 13.9x respectively [9][9]. - Earnings growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 3% and 15% for MXCN, and 15% and 14% for CSI300 [9][9]. - Financials and Materials sectors have seen the most upward revisions in earnings estimates [9][9]. Sector Performance - The report indicates that certain sectors such as Real Estate (3.9%) and Dividend Yield (3.7%) outperformed, while Information Technology (-2.7%) and Momentum (-3.8%) lagged [8][8]. - The analysis of past Five-Year Plans suggests that following Chinese policy could yield significant rewards in the equity market, with top-performing sectors historically including Autos, Telecom Services, and Materials [12][12]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the 15th Five-Year Plan, which focuses on modernization, security, and science/technology [10][10]. - The portfolio introduced is expected to outperform the benchmark, driven primarily by earnings growth and delivery [21][21]. - The report also highlights that the equity market has lagged nominal growth over the past decade, indicating potential for future recovery [14][14]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the report suggests cautious optimism for the Chinese equity market, driven by policy support and potential recovery in earnings growth. The introduction of the GS 15th Five-Year Plan Portfolio is positioned as a strategic move to capitalize on upcoming policy shifts and market opportunities [1][1][21][21].

智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，市场当前位置有望是长期牛市的起点。基本面的逐步好转与 产业亮点仍然是市场长期牛市的基础，居民资金的流入与"十五五"开局之年的政策支持将决定市场的斜 率与节奏。与往年全面牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大的上涨空间，但是在政府对于"慢牛"的政策指 引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。 核心观点如下： 长期牛市的基础 本轮牛市无论在时间还是空间之上，都仍然值得期待。牛市持续需要的不仅是流动性的好转，历史来 看，时间周期越长，市场与基本面的相关性就越高。因此在我们展望长期牛市可能性的时候，基本面的 稳健改善仍然是基础，政策往往提供了预期改善的拐点，资金决定斜率与节奏。牛市至此，未来更需要 关注基本面预期的兑现。 盈利总量稳定，关注结构亮点 展望2026，价格变化或许将成为盈利的主要拉动因素。在经历了一轮政策端显著拉动之后，2026年国内 经济或将重新进入到平稳运行阶段，价格因素对于盈利的影响或许将更加明显。预计2026年A股盈利将 逐步修复，全部A股非金融增速将修复到10%左右，同时盈利结构上或许将会有更多亮点。 关注居民资金与"十五五"规划建议 市场当前位置有望是长期牛 ...

Vi e w p o i n t | 13 Nov 2025 12:55:01 ET │ 17 pages Metal Matters China's aluminium demand still resilient as policy points to a structurally tighter market during 15th FYP CITI'S TAKE We upgrade our aluminum 0-3mth pt price to $2,950/t as the market increasingly pulls forward medium/long-term optimism, bringing current pricing closer to our 6-12mth target of US$3,000/t and reflecting an ongoing re-pricing of structurally bullish expectations well in advance of anticipated physical deficits. We also discu ...

省人社厅 连日来，我省各部门认真传达学习党的二十届四中全会精神，结合实际安排部署贯彻落实工作。 省委金融办 10月29日，省委金融办召开室务会（扩大）会议，传达学习党的二十届四中全会精神及中央金融 办、省委、省政府有关会议精神，研究贯彻落实意见。会议强调，全省地方金融系统要迅速掀起学习贯 彻热潮，确保全会部署落地生根。要在研究谋划陕西金融领域"十五五"时期工作举措上见真章，高质量 编制"十五五"金融业发展规划。要在推动解决制约金融高质量发展突出矛盾上出实招，兼顾金融业自身 增长与金融对其他领域带动增长双重目标，做深做实金融"五篇大文章"，持续优化金融服务、深化金融 改革创新、维护金融安全稳定。要在锤炼过硬作风上强担当，扎实推进"十四五"收官与"十五五"开局衔 接，全力以赴完成各项目标任务。 10月28日，省人社厅召开党组（扩大）会议，传达学习党的二十届四中全会精神，研究贯彻落实意 见。会议强调，学习好宣传好贯彻好全会精神，是当前和今后一个时期的重大政治任务。要全面贯彻落 实全会决策部署，对标对表、谋准谋实，科学编制人社领域"十五五"发展规划。要紧紧围绕深化"三个 年"活动、打好"八场硬仗"工作部署，聚焦稳就业 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the **15th Five-Year Plan (FYP)** of China, focusing on economic and social development goals set by the **Communist Party of China** [1][2][3]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Top Goals of the 15th FYP**: - Building a modern system to consolidate the economy - Accelerating scientific and technological self-reliance - Building a strong domestic market - The goal of expanding high-level opening up to the outside world has risen significantly due to increased trade barriers [1][2][6]. 2. **12 Specific Goals**: - Building a modern industrial system (priority 1) - Accelerating high-level scientific and technological self-reliance (priority 2) - Building a strong domestic market (priority 3) - Expanding high-level opening up to the outside world (priority 5, up from 9 in the previous FYP) [3][5]. 3. **Key Sectors Expected to Benefit**: - Technology - Tourism - Healthcare - Insurance - Renewables - Positive outlook on Hong Kong and PRC markets with specific stock recommendations including **Hengrui**, **Sunny Optical**, **ASMPT**, **Tencent**, **AIA**, **Trip.com**, and **Atour** [1][8]. 4. **Economic Development Goals**: - Significant results in high-quality development - Improvement in self-reliance in science and technology - Breakthroughs in reform and enhancement of social civilization - Improvement in the quality of life for the people [2]. 5. **Long-term Vision**: - By 2035, China aims for a significant leap in economic strength, scientific and technological strength, and international influence, with per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries [2]. Other Important Content - The **Fourth Plenary Session** of the 20th Central Committee was held to finalize these goals, indicating a strong governmental focus on economic and social reforms [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of adapting to external trade barriers and the need for a robust domestic market to counteract these challenges [1][6]. - The rankings of goals have shifted from the previous FYP, indicating changing government priorities which could impact investment strategies [6]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding China's economic strategy and the implications for various sectors and companies.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Metals & Mining, specifically focusing on the Indian steel sector and its relation to China's economic policies and property market recovery [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - **China's 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP)**: The upcoming plan is expected to prioritize economic resilience, national security, and inclusive development over explicit GDP targets, reflecting China's structural challenges from the property downturn [1][2] - **Strategic Importance**: The 15th FYP is deemed more significant than the 14th, addressing issues such as youth unemployment, income disparities, and the need for a policy reset towards inclusive growth and structural resilience [2][3] - **Property Market Challenges**: The primary domestic challenge for China from 2026 to 2030 will be addressing the structural imbalances in the property sector, which is crucial for economic stability [3] Implications for Indian Steel Sector - **Positive Outlook for Indian Steel**: The anticipated recovery in China's property sector is expected to boost domestic consumption, which will positively impact global hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices and reduce exports [4] - **Key Factors Supporting Indian Steel**: 1. Strong domestic demand momentum 2. Higher utilization rates due to lagging capacity additions 3. China's anti-involution measures 4. Potential roadmap for property recovery in China 5. Extension of safeguard duties to support prices [4] Additional Important Insights - **Current Market Conditions**: Recent data indicates a decline in new housing starts in China, reaching the lowest level in a decade, while excavator sales, a leading indicator for construction activity, have shown signs of recovery [6][8] - **Price Trends**: Average housing prices in China have been consistently falling, and weaker domestic consumption has led to lower domestic HRC prices [10][15] - **Future Expectations**: Analysts expect Indian domestic margins to improve as demand recovers in the second half of FY26 [21] Company Ratings - **Jindal Steel (JINDALST IN)**: Current price at INR 1,008 with a Buy rating [26] - **JSW Steel (JSTL IN)**: Current price at INR 1,163 with a Buy rating [29] Risks to Consider - **Lower Spreads**: If Chinese HRC margins do not recover or if net exports from China increase, it could pressure export HRC prices and domestic margins [27][31] - **Delays in Expansion**: Delays in commissioning new projects could lead to lower than expected volumes and potential cost overruns [27][31] - **Domestic Demand Disruptions**: If domestic demand does not grow as anticipated, it could negatively impact domestic HRC margins and increase reliance on exports [27][31]

Core Insights - Glidelogic Corp. has launched its Policy Intelligence Suite, enhancing its capabilities as an AI-driven advisory and consulting firm that integrates policy foresight, macroeconomic modeling, and compliance intelligence [1][4][10] - The launch coincides with the CCP Fourth Plenary Session, where strategies for China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) are being developed, allowing organizations to convert complex policy signals into actionable insights [2][5] Company Overview - Founded in 2020 and headquartered in Las Vegas, Glidelogic Corp. focuses on the intersection of capital, technology, and compliance, providing clients with tools to transition from information to actionable insights [10][11] - The Policy Intelligence Suite is built on the ResearchMind AI infrastructure, expanding advisory capabilities to include macro-policy forecasting and scenario simulation [3][4] Product Features - The Policy Intelligence Suite aids clients in navigating the complexities of policy, capital, and technology, transforming data into actionable intelligence for strategic decision-making [4][6] - It supports four core advisory domains: national and regional planning trends, corporate and investment decision support, cross-border strategy and compliance intelligence, and governance and transparency [7] Strategic Themes of the 15th Five-Year Plan - The internal study titled "Forecasting China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030)" identifies eight strategic themes that will shape China's policy framework through 2030, including innovation-driven growth, regulatory harmonization, and green transition [6][8][16] - The report predicts GDP growth of 4.0–4.5%, R&D intensity around 3%, and non-fossil energy to reach approximately 25% by 2030, emphasizing the balance of innovation, security, and sustainability [16]

Economic Growth - China's GDP expanded by 4.8% year-on-year in Q3, slightly surpassing economists' forecasts, indicating a solid foundation for achieving the full-year growth target of around 5% [2][5] - The growth rate of 5.2% for the first three quarters may lessen the urgency for further stimulus measures in the near term [5][6] Industrial and Retail Performance - Industrial output saw an unexpected increase of 6.5% in September, exceeding all economists' estimates, which contrasts with the overall slowing growth trend [6][7] - Retail sales grew at the slowest pace since November, highlighting a divergence in economic performance [6][7] Policy Implications - Policymakers are likely to focus on addressing structural issues between supply and demand, especially during the deliberations of the 15th Five-Year Plan at the Fourth Plenary Session [6][7] - The recent economic data may lead to a delay in the anticipated 10-basis-point rate cut by the central bank [5][6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically the upcoming release of September activity data, Q3 GDP, and the 4th Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee scheduled for October 20-23, 2023 [1][2][8]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Industrial Production (IP) Growth**: - Expected to increase to 5.3% year-on-year (yoy) in September from 5.2% in August, driven by improvements in manufacturing PMIs, exports, and auto output [5][7]. - Auto output growth rose to 17.2% yoy in September from 13.5% in August, while steel production growth declined to +5.8% yoy from +11.5% [5][6]. 2. **Retail Sales Growth**: - Anticipated to moderate to 3.1% yoy in September from 3.4% in August, primarily due to a high base effect [9][7]. - Online sales of white goods remained stable at -7% yoy, while auto retail sales volume growth increased slightly to +6.3% yoy [9]. 3. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: - Forecasted to remain sluggish at -4.6% yoy in September, an improvement from -6.8% in August, reflecting ongoing challenges in construction and property sectors [5][6]. - Year-to-date FAI growth is expected to be -0.2% yoy [6]. 4. **GDP Growth Forecast**: - Q3 real GDP growth is maintained at 4.8% yoy, a decline from 5.2% in Q2, with sequential growth moderating to 0.9% quarter-on-quarter (qoq) [9][10]. 5. **4th Plenary Session Expectations**: - The session is expected to provide insights into the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) for 2026-2030, with no specific numerical targets likely to be mentioned [8][10]. - Market reactions may vary based on the emphasis on consumption versus regulatory control [10]. Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that the upcoming 4th Plenary Session may not significantly impact the market, but there are two-way risks depending on policy directions [10]. - There is a consensus that China needs to cultivate new growth engines and boost domestic consumption sustainably during the 15th FYP period [14]. - Analysts suggest a potential growth target range of 4-5% for the 15th FYP, with a focus on technology, security, and consumption [14]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and expectations for the Chinese economy.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session (4th Plenum) of the Chinese Communist Party, scheduled for October 20-23, 2025, which will set the priorities for the next Five-Year Plan (FYP) [3][4] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **4th Plenum Documents**: The 4th Plenum will release two key documents: a high-level Communiqué outlining overarching priorities and a detailed "Central Government Suggestions for Drafting the FYP" [3][4] 2. **Key Tasks for 2026-2030**: The Communiqué will emphasize economic growth, structural reform, social governance, environmental sustainability, and improvements in people's livelihoods, with a focus on technological self-sufficiency and innovation [4][7] 3. **Incremental Reflation**: The anticipated economic policies for 2026 suggest a gradual approach to reflation, with a GDP growth target of around 5% to balance short-term and long-term objectives [7][12] 4. **Social Welfare Reform**: There is an expectation for gradual social welfare reform, which may receive endorsement in the upcoming documents, although major surprises are not anticipated [4][7] 5. **Economic Transition**: Beijing is committed to deepening the economic transition focused on technology and innovation, aiming for supply chain and energy self-sufficiency [9][10] Additional Important Content 1. **Consumer Spending Trends**: The "Super Golden Week" travel data indicated a year-on-year growth of 1.6% in person-trips, but a 13% contraction in spending per person per day, suggesting lukewarm demand [14][16] 2. **Retail Sector Performance**: Major retail and catering enterprises reported a revenue growth of 2.7% year-on-year, which is lower than the previous month's growth [15] 3. **Hotel Industry Insights**: Average hotel room prices showed a low-single-digit increase despite soft demand, indicating lower price elasticity [15] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications for the Chinese economy and relevant sectors.