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煤炭“276”限产的前世今生
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-10 11:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10]. Core Insights - The implementation of the "276 working days" policy by the Huozhou Coal Electricity Group is seen as a self-initiated action by high-cost, small-scale mines aimed at cost reduction and efficiency improvement. This may lead to a tightening of supply and potentially drive coal prices higher [2][8]. - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 3.71%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.47 percentage points, ranking 5th out of 32 industries [7][27]. - The price of Qinhuangdao power coal reached 682 RMB/ton, a week-on-week increase of 19 RMB/ton, while the price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1610 RMB/ton, down 70 RMB/ton [7][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The coal sector saw a 3.71% increase in the index, with the thermal coal index rising by 3.93% and the coking coal index by 2.93%, both outperforming the CSI 300 index [27][32]. - The report highlights that the implementation of the "276 working days" policy is expected to tighten supply, which could further support coal price increases [8][9]. Price Trends - As of August 8, the market price for Qinhuangdao power coal was 682 RMB/ton, reflecting a 2.87% increase from the previous week. The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1610 RMB/ton, showing a decrease [54]. - The report notes that the average price of metallurgical coke at the Rizhao Port was 1480 RMB/ton, up 50 RMB/ton week-on-week [27]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The daily coal consumption across 25 provinces reached 661.0 million tons, an increase of 8.8% week-on-week and 3.6% year-on-year. The coal supply for the same period was 619.8 million tons, up 11.8% [28][46]. - The report indicates that the supply from the "Three West" regions has seen a slight decrease in capacity utilization, which may contribute to the tightening of supply [28][46]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for coal investments, particularly in companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Jinneng Holding, and China Shenhua Energy, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [9].