本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 免责声明 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/10/9 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,286 | +33↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1374586 | +24718↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -23,217 | +21390↑ HC1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -7 | -1↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报( ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the RB2601 contract fluctuated. The central bank announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on September 25, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan this month, a seventh consecutive month of increased roll - overs. The weekly output of rebar remained low with a capacity utilization rate of 45.26%. During the consumption peak season, inventory continued to decline and apparent demand increased. Overall, the steel market was mixed. With the approaching long - holiday, there would be a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and the market might range - bound. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were near the 0 - axis with shrinking green bars. Short - term trading was recommended, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - RB main contract closing price was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; RB main contract open interest was 1,870,449 lots, down 11,775 lots; RB contract top 20 net positions were - 171,227 lots, up 20,425 lots; RB1 - 5 contract spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; RB SHFE warehouse receipt daily report was 277,122 tons, up 7,616 tons; HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 191 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,426 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged. RB main contract basis was 173 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread was 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 789 yuan/wet ton, down 3 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 138.0422 million tons, down 489,100 tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 422,100 tons, down 15,500 tons [2] Industry Situation - The sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.449 million tons, up 112,900 tons; the Tangshan billet inventory was 1.225 million tons, up 7,700 tons. The 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate was 84%, up 0.15 percentage points; the 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.38%, up 0.18 percentage points. The sample steel mill rebar output was 2.0646 million tons, up 100 tons; the sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate was 45.26%, unchanged. The sample steel mill rebar inventory was 1.6441 million tons, down 6,600 tons; the 35 - city rebar social inventory was 4.7189 million tons, down 133,200 tons. The independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate was 67.71%, down 2.08 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1.518 million tons, down 23,000 tons; the net steel export volume was 901,000 tons, down 38,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.05, down 0.28; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 0.5%, down 1.1 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 12.9%, down 0.9 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 2%, down 1.2 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.43109 billion square meters, down 43.78 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 398.01 million square meters, down 45.95 million square meters; the commercial housing unsold area was 402.29 million square meters, up 3.07 million square meters [2] Industry News - On September 25, Mysteel reported that the actual rebar output was 2.0646 million tons, up 100 tons week - on - week; the mill inventory was 1.6441 million tons, down 6,600 tons; the social inventory was 4.7189 million tons, down 133,200 tons; the total inventory was 6.363 million tons, down 139,800 tons; the apparent demand was 2.2044 million tons, up 104,100 tons. Also, on September 25, rainfall affected 2 tailings ponds in Guangxi with over 100 mm of rain (0 "over - head" ponds), and 65 tailings ponds in Guangxi, Guizhou and Yunnan with 50 - 100 mm of rain (1 "over - head" pond) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, price data slightly deteriorated, with PPI improving but CPI under pressure, indicating ongoing downward pressure on market prices. Credit and social financing data declined across the board, and government bond net financing remained an important support for the social financing scale. Fundamentally, in terms of supply, the decline in rebar production this week was basically flat, and the space for a continued significant decline in production is limited. In terms of demand, the consumption of building materials improved during the peak season, while the consumption of plates decreased. With the supply of raw materials increasing, the real demand for furnace materials being high under the background of steel mill复产, and downstream increasing inventory appropriately, rebar rebounded slightly [73][74]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Rebar Futures Market Review 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: In August 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year with the decline narrowing. At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year-on-year, M1 increased by 6% year-on-year, and M0 increased by 11.7% year-on-year [8]. - Policy information: The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 0.25 percentage points on September 17, 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission published an article emphasizing efforts to promote the construction of a unified national market [8]. 1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - Not provided in the content 2. Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, Basis 2.1 Macro - Money Supply - The SHIBOR on September 19, 2025, was 1.5470, up from 1.5280 on August 19, 2025, with a bearish outlook due to the rising interest rate [17]. 2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - As of a certain date, the price of rebar HRB400 20mm in Shanghai was 3,250 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.62%, a monthly decrease of 2.11%, and a yearly decrease of 2.11%. The prices and their changes of other commodities such as hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal are also provided [23]. 2.5 Rebar Main Contract Basis - The basis (spot - futures) of rebar on September 19, 2025, was 58 yuan/ton, showing different values on other dates [26]. 3. Rebar Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - Not provided in the content 3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (Various Steel Products) - Not provided in the content 3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Futures and Spot) - Not provided in the content 3.4 Blast Furnace Operation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises in China on September 19, 2025, was 83.98%, compared with 83.83% on September 12, 2025 [38]. 3.5 Electric Furnace Profit - Not provided in the content 3.6 Electric Furnace Operation - Not provided in the content 3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - Not provided in the content 3.8 Weekly Steel Output - On September 19, 2025, the weekly output of steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) was 770.4 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.064897367 and a week - on - week decrease of 0.002899151 [49]. 3.9 Weekly Rebar Output - On September 19, 2025, the weekly output of rebar was 206.45 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.025857594 and a year - on - year increase of 0.062915101 [53]. 3.10 Steel Mill Inventory of Steel - Not provided in the content 3.11 Social Inventory of Steel - Not provided in the content 3.13 Social Inventory of Rebar - Not provided in the content 3.14 Building Materials Transactions - Not provided in the content 3.15 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price - Not provided in the content 3.16 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area - Not provided in the content 3.17 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transactions - Not provided in the content 4. Future Outlook - Market price data shows downward pressure, and government bond net financing is an important support for social financing. In terms of rebar fundamentals, supply is expected to remain at a low level, and demand for building materials is improving during the peak season. With raw material supply increasing and cost support, rebar rebounded slightly [73][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Expectations are driving the black sector to perform stronger, and ferroalloys will continue to follow the fluctuations of the black sector [1][77][93] - In the short - term, affected by real - demand factors, the black sector may face a downward correction risk after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing, and China's policy space expansion, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [15][93] - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. It may follow the black sector's trend and is unlikely to have an independent strong market without sudden disturbances from the manganese ore end [15] - Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and it will also likely follow the black sector's trend with a relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [93] 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Report 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5820 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; futures price is 5964 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton; basis is 46 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton; basis rate is 0.77%. Manganese silicon production profit remains low but has increased in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi. Costs in these regions have decreased. Manganese silicon weekly output is 20.88 tons, down 0.54 tons. Rebar weekly output is 206.45 tons, down 5.48 tons. Daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons. Manganese silicon's apparent inventory is 51.89 tons, up 2.99 tons [14] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis has declined but is still at a neutral level. Production profit has recovered. Rebar demand is weak, while hot - metal output remains high. Apparent inventory is at a high level. Hebei Steel's September tender volume has increased slightly, but the tender price has decreased. The manganese silicon price has shown an upward trend in the short - term but is still within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 6000 yuan/ton and the resistance of the right - side downward trend line [15] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of September 19, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot market price is 5820 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the futures main contract (SM601) closes at 5964 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton; the basis is 46 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the basis rate is 0.77%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [20] 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon (excluding depreciation) remains low. In Inner Mongolia, it is - 251 yuan/ton, up 113 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, - 338 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton; in Guangxi, - 548 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton [25] - **Production Cost**: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 5981 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, 6038 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton; in Guangxi, 6298 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The price of South African ore, Australian ore, and other raw materials has changed, and the market price of off - grade metallurgical coke has decreased [27][30] - **Manganese Ore Import**: In July, the manganese ore import volume was 274 tons, up 5.97 tons month - on - month and 45.65 tons year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1720.3 tons, up 94.17 tons or 5.79% year - on - year [33] - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of September 12, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 452.5 tons, up 9.3 tons month - on - month [36] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon is 20.88 tons, down 0.54 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output has decreased by about 1.57% compared to the same period last year. In August 2025, the output was 90.93 tons, up 8.96 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to August decreased by 26.28 tons or 3.82% year - on - year [44] - **Main Production Areas Output**: No specific output data for main production areas are summarized other than the overall output - **Steel Tendering**: Hebei Steel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in September 2025 is 17000 tons, up 900 tons month - on - month and 6500 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month [55] - **Consumption**: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon is 12.14 tons, down 0.09 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar is 206.45 tons, down 5.48 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 0.04% year - on - year. The daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 3.67% year - on - year. In August 2025, the national crude steel output was 7737 tons, down 233 tons month - on - month and 53 tons year - on - year [58][61] 3.5 Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon is 51.89 tons, up 2.99 tons week - on - week, and the inventory level remains at a high level compared to the same period [68] - **Sample Enterprises Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises is 19.89 tons, up 3.21 tons week - on - week [71] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In September, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills is 15.93 days, up 0.95 days month - on - month, and the inventory available days continue to rise but are still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [74] 3.6 Graphical Trends - From September 15 - 19, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 132 yuan/ton or 2.27%. In the daily - line level, the price touched around 6000 yuan/ton and then declined. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 6000 yuan/ton and the resistance of the right - side downward trend line. The key time point for the market may be around mid - to - late October [77] Silicon Iron Report 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: The daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 3.67% year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 54.41 tons, down 3.31 tons or 5.73% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export of silicon iron is 23.6 tons, down 1.22 tons or 4.93% year - on - year. The estimated visible inventory of silicon iron is 15.82 tons, up 0.29 tons week - on - week. The basis of Tianjin 72 silicon iron is 64 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate is 1.10%, at a relatively neutral level. The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai has increased. The production cost in main production areas has remained basically stable [92] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a relatively neutral level. The production profit has slightly recovered. The output has remained basically stable. The demand for iron and steel has recovered, but the demand for exports and magnesium metal is average. The steel tender volume has increased slightly, but the tender price has decreased. The silicon iron price has shown an upward trend in the short - term but is still within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 5800 yuan/ton [93] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron is 5800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the futures main contract (SF511) closes at 5736 yuan/ton, up 128 yuan/ton; the basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate is 1.10%, at a relatively neutral level [98] 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia is - 363 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, - 259 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton; in Qinghai, - 346 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton [103] - **Production Cost**: As of September 19, 2025, the production cost in main production areas has remained basically stable. In Inner Mongolia, it is 5713 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, 5609 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton; in Qinghai, 5716 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan/ton. The price of silica in the northwest region has remained stable, and the price of semi - coke small materials has increased [106][109] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly output of silicon iron is 11.31 tons, remaining basically stable week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 1.42% compared to the same period last year. In August 2025, the output is 49.33 tons, up 4.66 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to August has increased by 2.8 tons or 0.78% year - on - year [114] - **Main Production Areas Output**: No specific output data for main production areas are summarized other than the overall output - **Steel Tendering**: Hebei Steel Group's 75B silicon iron alloy tender volume in September 2025 is 3151 tons, up 316 tons month - on - month and 650 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 5800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton month - on - month [120] - **Steel Consumption**: The daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 3.67% year - on - year. In August 2025, the national crude steel output is 7737 tons, down 233 tons month - on - month and 53 tons year - on - year [123] - **Non - steel Consumption**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 54.41 tons, down 3.31 tons or 5.73% year - on - year. As of September 19, 2025, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area remains stable. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export of silicon iron is 23.6 tons, down 1.22 tons or 4.93% year - on - year. The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron export is - 12 yuan/ton, showing a slight recovery but still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of overseas crude steel is 4.89 billion tons, down 400 tons or 0.81% year - on - year [126][129][130] 3.5 Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of silicon iron is 15.82 tons, up 0.29 tons week - on - week, and the inventory level remains at a high level compared to the same period [137] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In September, the average available days of silicon iron in steel mills is 15.52 days, up 0.85 days month - on - month, and the raw material inventory in steel mills continues to rise slightly but is still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [140] 3.6 Graphical Trends - From September 15 - 19, the silicon iron futures price fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 150 yuan/ton or 2.69%. In the daily - line level, the price continues to oscillate upwards along the hourly - level upward trend but remains within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 5800 yuan/ton [145]

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/9/18 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：RB：螺纹钢；HC：热轧卷板 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,147.00 | -21↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1999684 | +36313↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -224471 | +16787↑ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that steel demand has increased week-on-week, with construction material demand being weak while plate demand remains resilient [1] - Steel inventory has risen week-on-week, with hot-rolled and cold-rolled inventories remaining stable, while other steel inventories have accumulated [1] - The production of molten iron has significantly rebounded this week, supported by resilient demand in the manufacturing sector, suggesting potential profit improvements for steel companies [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.52% this week, while the steel sector outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 2.34 percentage points, with the steel sector increasing by 3.72% [2] - The main contract for rebar closed at 3127 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (0.51%), while hot-rolled coil increased by 24 yuan/ton (0.72%) to 3364 yuan/ton [2] - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased year-on-year, totaling 8.4411 million tons, but increased by 111,000 tons week-on-week [2] Group 3 - The iron output from 247 steel enterprises reached 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,200 tons week-on-week and 171,700 tons year-on-year [3] - The overall steel price index remained stable week-on-week, with slight fluctuations in specific steel prices [3] - The profit margins for various steel products have weakened, with the profit ratio for 247 steel mills decreasing by 0.87 percentage points to 60.17% [3] Group 4 - The apparent demand for downstream products such as cement and PVC has shown mixed results, with cement output decreasing significantly year-on-year while PVC production increased slightly [4] - The capacity utilization rates for semi-steel and full-steel tires have varied, with semi-steel tires decreasing and full-steel tires increasing year-on-year [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Thursday, the HC2601 contract traded within a range. Mexico is seeking to raise the tariff rate on Asian - made cars by up to 50%. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased after a decline, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.06%. Inventory decreased slightly, and apparent demand increased significantly. Overall, the terminal demand for hot - rolled coils is fairly resilient, with both year - on - year and month - on - month increases in apparent demand, but tariff disruptions have affected market investment sentiment. Technically, for the HC2601 contract, the 1 - hour MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis, with the green bar expanding. Short - term trading is recommended, with attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,334 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the trading volume was 1,323,310 lots, up 9,651 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 113,934 lots, down 7,049 lots. The HC10 - 1 contract spread was 38 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The HC Futures Exchange's daily warehouse receipt was 59,441 tons, up 34,382 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 242 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,410 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou it was 3,370 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan it was 3,430 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin it was 3,320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract was 76 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The price difference between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar was 170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 801 yuan/wet ton, up 3 yuan. The market price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Hebei Q235 billets was 2,990 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 138.2532 million tons, up 623,000 tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 406,600 tons, up 9,500 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2354 million tons, up 134,200 tons. The inventory of Hebei billets was 1.2895 million tons, down 75,800 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.38%, down 2.80 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.77%, down 4.23 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.2514 million tons, up 109,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 83.06%, up 2.79 percentage points. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 808,800 tons, up 9,000 tons. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.9244 million tons, down 19,200 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons. The monthly net export volume of steel was 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 2.5911 million vehicles, down 203,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 2.5934 million vehicles, down 311,100 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units. The monthly output of household refrigerators was 8.7307 million units, down 316,800 units. The monthly output of household washing machines was 8.7743 million units, down 733,600 units [2] Industry News - On September 11, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of hot - rolled coils this period was 3.2514 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 109,000 tons; the factory inventory was 808,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons; the social inventory was 2.9244 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,200 tons; the total inventory was 3.7332 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,200 tons; the apparent demand was 3.2616 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 208,000 tons. Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said the country is seeking to raise the tariff rate on Asian - made cars by up to 50% to protect about 320,000 jobs [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Thursday, the RB2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. Macroscopically, multiple ministries and commissions revealed the key points of next - stage work, promoting capacity governance in key industries and implementing policies to resolve structural contradictions in key industries and promote quality improvement and upgrading. They will make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy to support employment and foreign trade and foster new growth drivers. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to decline but was higher than the same period last year; inventory increased for seven consecutive weeks, and apparent demand continued to fall. Overall, market sentiment was low, terminal demand was average, the increase in short positions of mainstream holdings was greater, and the futures price center shifted down. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were running below the 0 axis. The operation strategy is to be bearish in a volatile market, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,092.00 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the position volume was 2,000,701 lots, up 133,027 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 266,935 lots, down 65,611 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 53 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 251,365 tons, up 8,525 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 242 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. b. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,240.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,323 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 148.00 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 170.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 801.00 yuan/wet ton, up 3.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,990.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 138.2532 million tons, up 623,000 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 406,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2354 million tons, up 134,200 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.38%, down 4.23 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.77%, down 7.58 percentage points; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.2895 million tons, down 28,000 tons [2]. d. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.1193 million tons, down 67,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 46.46%, down 1.48 percentage points; the inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.6663 million tons, down 47,100 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.8723 million tons, up 185,700 tons; the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, down 1.04 percentage points; the monthly output of crude steel in China was 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons; the monthly output of rebar in China was 1.658 million tons, up 140,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.34, down 0.25; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 1.60%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 12.00%, down 0.80 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 3.20%, down 1.40 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.38731 billion square meters, down 54.1 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, down 48.42 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale was 405.36 million square meters, up 2.85 million square meters [2]. f. Industry News - On September 11, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of rebar in this period was 2.1193 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 67,500 tons; the mill inventory was 1.6663 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,100 tons; the social inventory was 4.8723 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 185,700 tons; the total inventory was 6.5386 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 138,600 tons; the apparent demand was 1.9807 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,000 tons. As of September 10, according to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 16 key real - estate enterprises from January to August 2025 were 868.862 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17%; the sales in August were 106.451 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5% and a month - on - month increase of 20.2% [2].

Core Insights - The China Steel Association reported a continued decline in procurement costs for coking coal and a mixed trend for iron ore in July 2025, with most categories showing significant year-on-year decreases in costs [1] Group 1: Coking Coal - The weighted average procurement cost of coking coal in July was 1100.18 CNY/ton, a decrease of 32.00 CNY/ton or 2.83% month-on-month [2] - From January to July, the cumulative average procurement cost was 1250.49 CNY/ton, down 634.14 CNY/ton or 33.65% year-on-year [2] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 1015.95 CNY/ton, which is 234.54 CNY/ton or 18.76% lower than the average [4] Group 2: Spraying Coal - The weighted average procurement cost of spraying coal in July was 841.62 CNY/ton, a decrease of 7.59 CNY/ton or 0.89% month-on-month [6] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 938.94 CNY/ton, down 198.76 CNY/ton or 17.47% year-on-year [6] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 727.16 CNY/ton, which is 211.78 CNY/ton or 22.56% lower than the average [8] Group 3: Metallurgical Coke - The weighted average procurement cost of metallurgical coke in July was 1303.66 CNY/ton, a decrease of 51.49 CNY/ton or 3.80% month-on-month [11] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 1482.27 CNY/ton, down 646.01 CNY/ton or 30.35% year-on-year [11] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 1279.56 CNY/ton, which is 202.71 CNY/ton or 13.68% lower than the average [13] Group 4: Domestic Iron Concentrate - The weighted average procurement cost of domestic iron concentrate in July was 745.01 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.73 CNY/ton or 0.23% month-on-month [14] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 769.34 CNY/ton, down 119.02 CNY/ton or 13.40% year-on-year [14] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 630.96 CNY/ton, which is 131.37 CNY/ton or 17.23% lower than the average [16] Group 5: Imported Powder Ore - The weighted average procurement cost of imported powder ore in July was 725.51 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.54 CNY/ton or 0.21% month-on-month [19] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 754.60 CNY/ton, down 124.77 CNY/ton or 14.19% year-on-year [19] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 713.04 CNY/ton, which is 59.06 CNY/ton or 7.65% lower than the average [21] Group 6: Scrap Steel - The weighted average procurement cost of scrap steel in July was 2146.37 CNY/ton, an increase of 18.20 CNY/ton or 0.86% month-on-month [25] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 2180.06 CNY/ton, down 358.06 CNY/ton or 14.11% year-on-year [25] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 1948.06 CNY/ton, which is 232.00 CNY/ton or 10.64% lower than the average [27] Group 7: Silicon Manganese Alloy - The weighted average procurement cost of silicon manganese alloy in July was 5143.37 CNY/ton, an increase of 60.61 CNY/ton or 1.19% month-on-month [30] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 5389.77 CNY/ton, down 793.53 CNY/ton or 12.83% year-on-year [30] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 5104.90 CNY/ton, which is 284.87 CNY/ton or 5.29% lower than the average [32] Group 8: Manganese Iron Alloy - The weighted average procurement cost of manganese iron alloy in July was 5973.38 CNY/ton, a decrease of 46.72 CNY/ton or 0.78% month-on-month [35] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 6274.58 CNY/ton, down 341.48 CNY/ton or 5.16% year-on-year [35] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 4848.24 CNY/ton, which is 1426.34 CNY/ton or 22.73% lower than the average [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the HC2510 contract rebounded with reduced positions. In terms of macro - aspects, after the reserve requirement ratio cut in May released 100 billion yuan of long - term liquidity, medium - term liquidity has been in a net injection state for the past three months, and the net injection scale in August has significantly expanded. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.08%, still at a high level; terminal demand was fair, inventory increased slightly, and apparent demand rose. Overall, in the short term, due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and Tangshan entering the production restriction period, the short - term market may fluctuate strongly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. The operation strategy is to be bullish on the fluctuating market, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,389 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2] - HC main contract positions: 938,245 lots, down 59,902 lots [2] - Net positions of the top 20 in the HC contract: - 69,010 lots, down 14,157 lots [2] - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 12 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - HC warehouse receipts at the Shanghai Futures Exchange: 27,749 tons, down 5,366 tons [2] - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 251 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,420 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,380 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - HC main contract basis: 61 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 781 yuan/wet ton, up 15 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,590 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 3,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 138.452 million tons, up 259,300 tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 393,800 tons, up 3,300 tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.0969 million tons, down 900 tons [2] - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1609 million tons, up 35,700 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.34%, down 0.23 percentage points [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.27%, up 0.03 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 3.2524 million tons, up 96,500 tons [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 83.08%, up 2.46 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 788,900 tons, down 10,900 tons [2] - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 2.8255 million tons, up 50,600 tons [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 9.39 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.5911 million vehicles, down 203,000 vehicles [2] - Automobile sales: 2.5934 million vehicles, down 311,100 vehicles [2] - Air - conditioner output: 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units [2] - Household refrigerator output: 8.7307 million units, down 316,800 units [2] - Household washing machine output: 8.7743 million units, down 733,600 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In July 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 150.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. African crude steel output was 1.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.0%; Asian and Oceanian crude steel output was 110.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; EU (27 countries) crude steel output was 10.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.0%; other European countries' crude steel output was 3.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [2] - On August 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations with a term of 1 year. This is also the central bank's sixth consecutive month of increased volume roll - over, and the central bank's net MLF injection this month reached 300 billion yuan. After the reserve requirement ratio cut in May released 100 billion yuan of long - term liquidity, medium - term liquidity has been in a net injection state for the past three months, and the net injection scale in August has significantly expanded [2]