1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the RB2605 contract decreased with reduced positions. The macro - situation shows that according to US officials, President Trump told his assistants that he is willing to end the military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 43.37%. Downstream demand continued to increase, and inventory continued to decline. Overall, the fundamentals of rebar changed little, the situation between the US and Iran showed signs of easing, and the decline in oil prices led to a downward trend in the black - series commodities. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward, and the red bar turns green. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,121.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the position volume was 901,052 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 58,835 lots, a decrease of 10,402 lots; the spread between the RB5 - 10 contracts was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 99,613 tons, with no change; the spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 173 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,260.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,344 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,440.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,210.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of the RB main contract was 139.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 50.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 785.00 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 7 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,490.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,170.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the inventory of iron ore at 45 ports (weekly) was 16,996.84 million tons, a decrease of 105.83 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants (weekly) was 49.76 million tons, a decrease of 2.59 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills (weekly) was 691.73 million tons, an increase of 3.95 million tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan (weekly) was 239.94 million tons, a decrease of 9.59 million tons; the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 81.05%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 86.65%, an increase of 1.10 percentage points; the output of rebar at sample steel mills (weekly) was 197.87 million tons, a decrease of 5.46 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills (weekly) was 43.37%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points; the inventory of rebar at sample steel mills (weekly) was 219.16 million tons, a decrease of 17.04 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities (weekly) was 642.75 million tons, a decrease of 10.46 million tons; the operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills (weekly) was 69.79%, an increase of 3.12 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 6,818 million tons, a decrease of 169 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1,375 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons; the net export volume of steel (monthly) was 747.00 million tons, an increase of 18.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index (monthly) was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion (monthly) was - 3.80%, a decrease of 5.60 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion (monthly) was - 17.20%, a decrease of 6.10 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (monthly) was - 2.20%, a decrease of 2.20 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area (monthly) was 659,890 million square meters, a decrease of 124,518 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area (monthly) was 58,770 million square meters, a decrease of 53,686 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing (monthly) was 40,236.00 million square meters, an increase of 3,516.00 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In March, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. On March 30, US President Trump posted on a social platform that if an agreement with Iran cannot be reached in the short term and the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened, he will blow up and completely raze all of Iran's power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island, and possibly all desalination plants [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, the HC2605 contract rebounded with a reduction in positions. The terminal demand is resilient, and there is still support from the cost side, but the international situation is volatile with many uncertainties. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,308 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the position volume is 846,816 lots, down 72,722 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 47,685 lots, up 7,307 lots; the HC5 - 10 contract spread is - 15 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 549,618 tons, up 6,457 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 169 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] 2. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 12 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the spread between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar is 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 792 yuan/wet ton, up 4 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,180 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 16,996.84 tons, down 105.83 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 49.76 tons, down 2.59 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 691.73 tons, up 3.95 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 239.94 tons, down 9.59 tons [2] 4. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.05%, up 1.25%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 86.65%, up 1.10%. The output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 305.61 tons, up 5.4 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 78.07%, up 1.38%. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 83.85 tons, down 1.11 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 369.42 tons, down 6.91 tons. The domestic crude steel output is 6,818 tons, down 169 tons; the net export volume of steel is 747 tons, up 18 tons [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 167.24 million, down 77.74 million; the monthly sales volume of automobiles is 180.52 million, down 54.13 million. The monthly output of air conditioners is 2,162.89 million, up 660.29 million; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 1,001.15 million, up 56.95 million; the monthly output of household washing machines is 1,197.50 million, down 3.80 million [2] 6. Industry News - On March 26, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of hot - rolled coils this period was 305.61 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.4 tons; the factory inventory was 83.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.11 tons; the social inventory was 369.42 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.91 tons; the total inventory was 453.27 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.02 tons; the apparent demand was 313.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.12 tons. The Ministry of Commerce determined that the measures of the Mexican government to increase import tariff rates on products from non - free - trade partners such as China constitute a trade and investment barrier [2]

Investment Rating - The steel sector is rated as having absolute value, with the CITIC Steel Index increasing by 0.2%, outperforming the market by 1.3% [1][11]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of its economic cycle, with a profit ratio of 43.3% among 247 surveyed steel mills, despite a current average loss of 30.6 yuan per ton due to high inventory levels and moderate demand [1][11]. - The iron ore inventory at ports remains high at approximately 180 million tons, with ongoing negotiations affecting market dynamics, while steel production is gradually recovering [1][11]. - The market for coking coal is showing positive short-term performance, with prices driven by seasonal demand rather than cost increases [3][13]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The steel industry is currently facing mixed signals, with high iron ore inventories and slow recovery in steel production. The market is stabilizing after a macroeconomic downturn, with the CITIC Steel Index reflecting this trend [1][11]. Black Industry Chain Profitability - The profitability indicators show a stable bottom for the steel industry, with a significant portion of mills reporting profits despite challenging conditions [1][11]. Price Data Updates - The average price for hot-rolled coils is 3322 yuan per ton, with a slight increase from the previous week. Inventory levels are decreasing, but the pace of destocking is slow [2][12]. - Coking coal prices are stable, with various grades priced between 1210 and 1600 yuan per ton, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario [3][13]. Supply and Demand Data Updates - The total inventory of imported iron ore at ports is reported at 170 million tons, with a slight decrease from the previous week. The daily average discharge volume is also declining, indicating a tightening supply [4][14]. - The coking coal market is expected to maintain a dual increase in supply and demand in the short term, reflecting a positive outlook for the sector [3][13].

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as having absolute value, with the CITIC Steel Index increasing by 0.2%, outperforming the market by 1.3% this week [1][11]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of its economic cycle, with a profit ratio of 43.3% among 247 surveyed steel mills, despite a current average loss of 30.6 yuan per ton due to high inventory levels and moderate terminal demand [1][11]. - The iron ore inventory at ports remains high at approximately 180 million tons, with ongoing negotiations between major players causing market fluctuations [1][11]. - The market for coking coal is showing positive short-term performance, with prices driven by seasonal demand rather than cost increases [3][13]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry Overview - The domestic hot-rolled coil market is showing strong price consolidation, with an average price of 3,322 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from last week [2][12]. - Social inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased by 54,000 tons week-on-week but increased by 166,800 tons month-on-month, indicating a slow destocking process [2][12]. Coking Coal Market - Prices for main coking coal in Shanxi are reported at 1,329 yuan per ton for S2.8 and 1,580 yuan per ton for S0.45 [3][13]. - The total inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports is 478.10 thousand tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.93 thousand tons [3][13]. Iron Ore Market - The price index for domestic iron concentrate has decreased, with the 66% concentrate price in Tangshan at 967 yuan per ton, down 3 yuan [4][14]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 170 million tons, down 980,900 tons from the previous week [4][14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the RB2605 contract saw a reduction in positions and consolidation. The macro - situation involves China's full - scale second - round pilot of extending the land contract for another 30 years in entire provinces, with key requirements including maintaining the collective ownership system, household - based contracting, the dominant position of farmers, and rural social stability [2]. - In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to increase, and the capacity utilization rate rose to 44.57%. Downstream demand continued to improve, with the apparent demand exceeding 2.05 million tons, and inventory changed from increasing to decreasing. Overall, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, the inventory inflection point appeared, and the bottom support moved up. However, the international situation is volatile, with many uncertainties, and the wide - range fluctuations of international oil prices affect market sentiment [2]. - Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are pulling back from high levels, and it is testing the support at the 0 - axis in the short - term. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3150 - 3110 in the short - term, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,135.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the position volume was down 65,665 hands. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 25,055 hands, an increase of 11,908 hands. The RB5 - 10 contract spread was down 3 yuan/ton, and the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was down 3 yuan/ton. The RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 58,176 tons, a decrease of 573 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,280.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,364 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 145.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan, and the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 20.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 792.00 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 7.00 yuan. The price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,190.00 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 17,191.80 million tons, an increase of 69.08 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 56.10 million tons, a decrease of 6.93 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 687.62 million tons, an increase of 16.09 million tons. The inventory of billets in Tangshan was 249.53 million tons, an increase of 9.02 million tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.36%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 82.90%, a decrease of 2.40 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 203.33 million tons, an increase of 8.03 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 44.57%, an increase of 1.75 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 236.20 million tons, a decrease of 3.42 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 653.21 million tons, a decrease of 1.34 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 59.38%, an increase of 23.96 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 6,818 million tons, a decrease of 169 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1,375 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons. The net export volume of steel was 747.00 million tons, an increase of 18.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.80%, a decrease of 5.60 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment was - 17.20%, a decrease of 6.10 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 2.20%, a decrease of 2.20 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 659,890 million square meters, a decrease of 124,518 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 58,770 million square meters, a decrease of 53,686 million square meters. The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 40,236.00 million square meters, an increase of 3,516.00 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On March 19, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of rebar this period was 203.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.03 million tons; the mill inventory was 236.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.42 million tons; the social inventory was 653.21 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.34 million tons; the total inventory was 889.41 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.76 million tons; the apparent demand was 208.09 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 31.28 million tons [2]. - At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Commerce on March 19, the spokesperson said that China and the US had in - depth and constructive exchanges and consultations on economic and trade issues, reached some new consensuses, and would continue the consultations [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils continued to decline, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to around 75%. Terminal demand rebounded, and inventory decreased slightly. Overall, the decrease in hot-rolled coil output alleviated the supply pressure. The international situation was volatile with many uncertainties, and the international oil price corrected from its high level, weakening the support for furnace materials and steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were operating above the 0 axis, with green bars expanding. It is recommended to conduct short-term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Different Categories 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan; the trading volume was 1,171,958 lots, a decrease of 7,990 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was -12,695 lots, an increase of 3,937 lots. The HC5 - 10 contract spread was -1 yuan/ton, unchanged. The HC warehouse receipt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 478,788 tons, an increase of 600 tons. The HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 170 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,320 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; in Guangzhou, it was 3,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; in Wuhan, it was 3,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; and in Tianjin, it was 3,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan. The price difference between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 8 yuan. The market price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax-excluded) was 2,190 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 171.918 million tons, an increase of 690,800 tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 561,000 tons, a decrease of 69,300 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.8762 million tons, an increase of 160,900 tons. The inventory of billets in Hebei was 2.4051 million tons, an increase of 78,600 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.36%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 82.9%, a decrease of 2.40 percentage points. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 2.9526 million tons, a decrease of 58,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot-rolled coils was 75.43%, a decrease of 1.49 percentage points. The inventory of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 892,800 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons; the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.8231 million tons, an increase of 7,000 tons. The monthly output of crude steel in China was 6.818 million tons, a decrease of 169,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 747,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 1.6724 million, a decrease of 777,400; the monthly sales of automobiles was 1.8052 million, a decrease of 541,300. The monthly output of air conditioners was 21.6289 million, an increase of 6.6029 million; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.0115 million, an increase of 569,500; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.975 million, a decrease of 38,000 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, China exported 740,000 automobiles, a year-on-year increase of 75.1%; from January to February, the cumulative export was 1.53 million, a year-on-year increase of 57.9%. In February, China imported 30,000 automobiles, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6%; from January to February, the cumulative import was 70,000, a year-on-year increase of 24.7%. In February, China exported 408 ships, a year-on-year increase of 35.5%; from January to February, the cumulative export was 930, a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [2] 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, in-plant inventory, and social inventory of hot-rolled coils on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the HC2605 contract rose and then pulled back. Macroscopically, US President Trump said that there were "almost no targets left to strike" in Iran and the US military action against Iran was "coming to an end", but US and Israeli officials said they had not received any internal instructions to stop the military action. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils continued to decline, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to around 75%; terminal demand rebounded and inventory decreased slightly. Overall, the decline in hot-rolled coil output alleviated the supply pressure, but the trading atmosphere in the spot market was cautious, and tariff disturbances reappeared. The chaotic situation between the US and Iran affected market sentiment. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were running above the 0-axis. It is suggested that the short-term market may be sorted out in the range of 3300 - 3240, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,275 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the trading volume was 1,243,723 lots, down 21,377 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was -5,691 lots, down 8,482 lots; the spread between the HC5 - 10 contracts was -9 yuan/ton, unchanged; the daily warehouse receipt of HC on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 478,483 tons, down 2,649 tons; the spread between HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 155 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 15 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 10 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, up 5 yuan; the market price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax-excluded) was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,950 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 171.2272 million tons, up 264,100 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 630,300 tons, up 4,400 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.7153 million tons, down 35,300 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 2.4051 million tons, up 78,600 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 77.69%, down 2.55 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.3%, down 2.18 percentage points. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 2.9526 million tons, down 58,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 75.43%, down 1.49 percentage points. The inventory of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 892,800 tons, down 8,000 tons; the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.8231 million tons, up 7,000 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 10.78 million tons, up 3.3111 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 1.672 million vehicles, down 777,900 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles was 1.805 million vehicles, down 541,500 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.0115 million units, up 569,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.975 million units, down 38,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump said that there were "almost no targets left to strike" in Iran and the US military action against Iran was "coming to an end", but US and Israeli officials said they had not received any internal instructions to stop the military action. Since the Middle East conflict has continued to intensify, the export production plan of household air conditioners has been significantly reduced compared with the previous plan. Overseas customers have cancelled or postponed orders due to rising freight rates or war surcharges imposed by shipping companies, with a projected reduction of over 500,000 units in March [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot-rolled coil industry is oscillating with a bullish bias [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the HC2605 contract increased in price while reducing positions. The macro - economic aspect shows that the investment in key areas such as water network, power grid, computing power network, etc. will exceed 7 trillion yuan this year. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to decline, with the capacity utilization dropping to around 77%. Terminal demand was weaker than expected, apparent demand declined, and inventory increased. Overall, the hot - rolled coil market has both positive and negative factors, but the continuous rise in international oil prices supports commodity prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rebounding upwards with an enlarged red column [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,270 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the position volume was 1,292,623 lots, down 106,185 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was 37,176 lots, up 1,235 lots; the HC5 - 10 contract spread was - 12 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 479,016 tons, up 5,901 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 151 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,270 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,180 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 0 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, up 16 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,930 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 171.2272 million tons, up 264,100 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 630,300 tons, up 4,400 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.7153 million tons, down 35,300 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 2.3265 million tons, up 131,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 77.69%, down 2.55 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.3%, down 2.18 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.0111 million tons, down 85,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 76.92%, down 2.17 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 900,800 tons, down 47,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.8161 million tons, up 242,400 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 10.78 million tons, up 1.3 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 2.4499 million vehicles, down 846,100 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles was 2.3465 million vehicles, down 925,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.0115 million units, up 569,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.975 million units, down 38,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, the national ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month, and increased by 0.4% month - on - month, the same as the previous month. From January to February, on average, the ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 1.2% compared with the same period of the previous year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 1.1%. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and increased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month. The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in February was 51.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and has been above 50% for two consecutive months [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the steel industry, but it implies a stable outlook based on current conditions and trends observed in the market [11][12]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of its fundamental performance, with an average profit level of 16.5 yuan per ton and a current loss of 21.4 yuan per ton. The profit rate for steel companies is reported at 38.9% [11][12]. - Iron ore prices have rebounded due to high port inventories and geopolitical events, despite the completion of spring restocking by steel mills. The report notes that iron ore port inventories remain high at 178 million tons [4][11]. - The demand for hot-rolled coils is currently weak, with prices slightly decreasing and social inventories increasing. However, a potential recovery in demand is expected as downstream operations resume [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The steel mills' iron ore inventory has returned to baseline levels, while steel inventory has risen to levels close to those seen after the spring restocking in 2025. The strength of this year's spring restocking is weaker compared to 2025 [11]. - The average profit level in the industry has decreased, indicating a challenging environment for steel producers [11]. 2. Sub-Industry Fundamentals - Hot-rolled coil prices have seen a slight decline, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coils at 3320 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan from the previous week. Social inventory for hot-rolled coils has increased significantly [12]. - The metallurgical coke prices have remained stable, with trade prices for first-grade coke at 1570 yuan per ton. However, the overall supply remains high, leading to pressure on prices [13]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The report indicates fluctuations in iron ore prices, with the price index for 66% iron concentrate at 955 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight increase. The overall market sentiment is influenced by geopolitical factors and supply chain dynamics [4][13]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Steel production and inventory levels are being monitored closely, with expectations of a slight increase in hot-rolled coil prices due to low inventory levels in downstream markets and seasonal supply constraints [12][13]. - Iron ore shipments and port inventories are being tracked, with a noted high level of 178 million tons at ports, indicating a potential for price adjustments in the future [4][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The HC2605 contract reduced positions and consolidated on Tuesday. The macro - situation includes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the upcoming Two Sessions. The weekly production of hot - rolled coils is stable, with a capacity utilization rate around 79%. After the Spring Festival, terminal demand has increased, but inventory continues to rise. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis with the green bar shrinking. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,219 yuan/ton, unchanged; HC main contract position: 1,451,887 lots, a decrease of 7,712 lots; HC contract top 20 net position: 57,027 lots, a decrease of 6,229 lots; HC5 - 10 contract spread: - 19 yuan/ton, unchanged; HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 433,698 tons, an increase of 4,410 tons; HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged; Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,140 yuan/ton, unchanged; HC main contract basis: 31 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 10 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB powder ore: 755 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 5 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 2,910 yuan/ton, unchanged; 45 - port iron ore inventory: 17,096.31 tons, an increase of 153.98 tons; Sample coking plant coke inventory: 62.59 tons, an increase of 7.21 tons; Sample steel mill coke inventory: 675.06 tons, a decrease of 13.52 tons; Hebei billet inventory: 219.46 tons, an increase of 45.24 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 80.24%, an increase of 0.09%; 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 87.48%, an increase of 1.05%; Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil production: 309.61 tons, a decrease of 0.20 tons; Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 79.09%, a decrease of 0.05%; Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 94.78 tons, an increase of 1.40 tons; 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 357.37 tons, an increase of 16.90 tons; Domestic crude steel production: 6,818 tons, a decrease of 169 tons; Steel net export volume: 1,078 tons, an increase of 130 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.4499 million vehicles, a decrease of 0.8461 million vehicles; Automobile sales: 2.3465 million vehicles, a decrease of 0.9258 million vehicles; Air - conditioner production: 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units; Household refrigerator production: 10.0115 million units, an increase of 0.5695 million units; Household washing machine production: 11.975 million units, a decrease of 0.038 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The press conference of the 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held on March 3. The conference will open at 3 pm on March 4 and close on the morning of March 11, lasting for 7 days. On March 2, Baowu Group's Central and Southern Iron and Steel signed a strategic cooperation agreement with China Pingmei Shenma Group, aiming to promote the strategic deployment of tilting high - quality resources towards high - quality enterprises [2]