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热轧卷板产业链日报-20250825
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 09:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the HC2510 contract rebounded with reduced positions. In terms of macro - aspects, after the reserve requirement ratio cut in May released 100 billion yuan of long - term liquidity, medium - term liquidity has been in a net injection state for the past three months, and the net injection scale in August has significantly expanded. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.08%, still at a high level; terminal demand was fair, inventory increased slightly, and apparent demand rose. Overall, in the short term, due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and Tangshan entering the production restriction period, the short - term market may fluctuate strongly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. The operation strategy is to be bullish on the fluctuating market, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,389 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2] - HC main contract positions: 938,245 lots, down 59,902 lots [2] - Net positions of the top 20 in the HC contract: - 69,010 lots, down 14,157 lots [2] - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 12 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - HC warehouse receipts at the Shanghai Futures Exchange: 27,749 tons, down 5,366 tons [2] - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 251 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,420 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,380 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - HC main contract basis: 61 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 781 yuan/wet ton, up 15 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,590 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 3,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 138.452 million tons, up 259,300 tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 393,800 tons, up 3,300 tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.0969 million tons, down 900 tons [2] - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1609 million tons, up 35,700 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.34%, down 0.23 percentage points [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.27%, up 0.03 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 3.2524 million tons, up 96,500 tons [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 83.08%, up 2.46 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 788,900 tons, down 10,900 tons [2] - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 2.8255 million tons, up 50,600 tons [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 9.39 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.5911 million vehicles, down 203,000 vehicles [2] - Automobile sales: 2.5934 million vehicles, down 311,100 vehicles [2] - Air - conditioner output: 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units [2] - Household refrigerator output: 8.7307 million units, down 316,800 units [2] - Household washing machine output: 8.7743 million units, down 733,600 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In July 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 150.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. African crude steel output was 1.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.0%; Asian and Oceanian crude steel output was 110.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; EU (27 countries) crude steel output was 10.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.0%; other European countries' crude steel output was 3.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [2] - On August 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations with a term of 1 year. This is also the central bank's sixth consecutive month of increased volume roll - over, and the central bank's net MLF injection this month reached 300 billion yuan. After the reserve requirement ratio cut in May released 100 billion yuan of long - term liquidity, medium - term liquidity has been in a net injection state for the past three months, and the net injection scale in August has significantly expanded [2]
螺纹钢产业链日报-20250825
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 09:23
螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/8/25 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证,据此投资,责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,138.00 | +19↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1347830 | -63773↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -112560 | -8361↓ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -86 | -10↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日 ...
瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250812
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 09:18
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated with a bullish bias. Macroeconomically, the joint statement of the China-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm announced a 90 - day suspension of the 24% tariff starting from August 12, 2025. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased significantly this period, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.49%. Inventories continued to rise, and the apparent demand turned from a decline to an increase. Overall, the macro - expectation is positive, the production restrictions in Tangshan boosted market sentiment, and the strong rise in coal prices provided cost support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF is rising above DEA. The operation strategy is to be bullish in a fluctuating market, while paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,258 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the position volume was 1,605,388 lots, down 7,237 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 75,900 lots, up 4,267 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 78 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The RB warehouse receipt at the SHFE was 97,654 tons, up 1,197 tons. The HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 226 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,420 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,508 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,360 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 162 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 3,120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 13,712.27 million tons, up 54.37 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 44.36 million tons, down 1.92 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 619.30 million tons, down 7.48 million tons. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 115.36 million tons, up 4.34 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.77%, up 0.29%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.07%, down 0.15%. The rebar output of sample steel mills was 221.18 million tons, up 10.12 million tons. The rebar capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills was 48.49%, up 2.22%. The rebar inventory in sample steel mills was 168.20 million tons, up 6.05 million tons. The social rebar inventory in 35 cities was 388.48 million tons, up 4.34 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 71.88%, up 2.09%. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1,688 million tons, up 30 million tons. The monthly net steel export volume was 938.40 million tons, up 17.40 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 2.80%, down 0.90%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 11.20%, down 0.50%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00%. The cumulative floor area under construction was 633,321 million square meters, down 8,302 million square meters. The cumulative floor area of newly started buildings was 30,364 million square meters, down 7,181 million square meters. The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 40,821.00 million square meters, up 443.00 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans." From September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, residents using personal consumption loans (excluding credit card business) for actual consumption, and the loan - issuing institutions can identify relevant consumption transaction information, can enjoy the interest subsidy policy as stipulated. The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and seven other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Interest Subsidy Policy for Loans to Service Industry Business Entities." Eligible loans issued by the handling banks to service industry business entities in eight consumption fields, including catering and accommodation, health, elderly care, childcare, housekeeping, cultural and entertainment, tourism, and sports, can enjoy the interest subsidy policy [2].
关注新疆板块投资机遇
Tebon Securities· 2025-08-11 11:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential for long-term growth in Xinjiang, supported by continuous policy empowerment and significant economic achievements in the region [5][22] - Xinjiang is positioned as a core area for national energy security, with rapid development in coal chemical industries and substantial investments planned [23] - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by supply-side reforms and improved demand from policy initiatives [8] Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.2 percentage points this week, with a weekly increase of 2.3% [11] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 16.3%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.8 percentage points [11] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in Xinjiang, particularly in sectors such as civil explosives, chemical engineering, and resource-based enterprises [5][23] - Key companies to watch include: - Civil Explosives: Yipuli, Jiangnan Chemical, Guangdong Hongda, Xuefeng Technology, Kailong Co [5] - Chemical Engineering: Sanwei Chemical, China Chemical, Donghua Technology, Sinopec Refining Engineering [5] - Resource-based Enterprises: Guanghui Energy, Baofeng Energy, Hubei Yihua, Tianfu Energy, Xinjiang Tianye [5] Product Price Movements - The report notes significant price increases in various chemical products, with hydrochloric acid rising by 900% and ammonium chloride by 13.3% [30][32] - Conversely, prices for some products like trichlorosucrose have decreased by 28% [30][32] Company Announcements - Companies such as Qixiang Tengda and Jiahuan Energy have reported significant operational updates and financial results, indicating a positive trend in revenue and profit growth [24][25][27]
煤炭“276”限产的前世今生
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-10 11:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10]. Core Insights - The implementation of the "276 working days" policy by the Huozhou Coal Electricity Group is seen as a self-initiated action by high-cost, small-scale mines aimed at cost reduction and efficiency improvement. This may lead to a tightening of supply and potentially drive coal prices higher [2][8]. - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 3.71%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.47 percentage points, ranking 5th out of 32 industries [7][27]. - The price of Qinhuangdao power coal reached 682 RMB/ton, a week-on-week increase of 19 RMB/ton, while the price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1610 RMB/ton, down 70 RMB/ton [7][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The coal sector saw a 3.71% increase in the index, with the thermal coal index rising by 3.93% and the coking coal index by 2.93%, both outperforming the CSI 300 index [27][32]. - The report highlights that the implementation of the "276 working days" policy is expected to tighten supply, which could further support coal price increases [8][9]. Price Trends - As of August 8, the market price for Qinhuangdao power coal was 682 RMB/ton, reflecting a 2.87% increase from the previous week. The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1610 RMB/ton, showing a decrease [54]. - The report notes that the average price of metallurgical coke at the Rizhao Port was 1480 RMB/ton, up 50 RMB/ton week-on-week [27]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The daily coal consumption across 25 provinces reached 661.0 million tons, an increase of 8.8% week-on-week and 3.6% year-on-year. The coal supply for the same period was 619.8 million tons, up 11.8% [28][46]. - The report indicates that the supply from the "Three West" regions has seen a slight decrease in capacity utilization, which may contribute to the tightening of supply [28][46]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for coal investments, particularly in companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Jinneng Holding, and China Shenhua Energy, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [9].
5月份“对标挖潜”企业主要原燃材料采购成本分析显示:喷吹煤、动力煤、合金的采购成本环比降幅相对较大
Core Insights - In May, the procurement costs of most primary raw materials for enterprises decreased month-on-month, except for metallurgical coke, domestic pellets, and imported pellets, which saw slight increases [1] Group 1: Procurement Cost Changes - Coking coal procurement cost decreased by 0.91% month-on-month, with an average cost of 1227.16 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 32.26% [2] - Injection coal procurement cost decreased by 2.94% month-on-month, with an average cost of 903.47 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.76% [3] - Metallurgical coke procurement cost increased by 0.96% month-on-month, with an average cost of 1474.85 CNY/ton in May, but a year-on-year decrease of 28.53% [4] - Domestic iron concentrate procurement cost decreased by 0.05% month-on-month, with an average cost of 762.98 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.35% [5] - Imported powder ore procurement cost decreased by 1.59% month-on-month, with an average cost of 750.01 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.66% [6] - Scrap steel procurement cost decreased by 0.60% month-on-month, with an average cost of 2158.02 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.46% [8] - Silicon manganese alloy procurement cost decreased by 3.59% month-on-month, with an average cost of 5265.77 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.09% [9] - Manganese alloy procurement cost decreased by 3.17% month-on-month, with an average cost of 6236.93 CNY/ton in May, but a year-on-year increase of 0.69% [10] Group 2: Comparative Analysis - The lowest five enterprises for coking coal procurement had an average cost of 1057.82 CNY/ton, which is 19.09% lower than the average procurement cost [2] - The lowest five enterprises for injection coal procurement had an average cost of 739.41 CNY/ton, which is 24.49% lower than the average procurement cost [3] - The lowest five enterprises for metallurgical coke procurement had an average cost of 1339.75 CNY/ton, which is 13.35% lower than the average procurement cost [4] - The lowest five enterprises for domestic iron concentrate procurement had an average cost of 659.26 CNY/ton, which is 14.95% lower than the average procurement cost [5] - The lowest five enterprises for imported powder ore procurement had an average cost of 723.08 CNY/ton, which is 7.57% lower than the average procurement cost [6] - The lowest five enterprises for scrap steel procurement had an average cost of 1924.10 CNY/ton, which is 12.49% lower than the average procurement cost [8] - The lowest five enterprises for silicon manganese alloy procurement had an average cost of 5248.31 CNY/ton, which is 5.13% lower than the average procurement cost [9] - The lowest five enterprises for manganese alloy procurement had an average cost of 4872.49 CNY/ton, which is 25.59% lower than the average procurement cost [10]
从完全成本角度看中煤能源和晋控煤业的竞争力
2025-07-11 01:13
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the coal industry, focusing on companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Zhongmei Energy, as well as the dynamics of the coal market in China [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Rising Production Costs**: The average unit cost of thermal coal is projected to be 181 RMB in 2024, which is higher than the 80 RMB during the 13th Five-Year Plan but lower than in 2023 [1][2]. - **Cost Drivers**: Major cost increases for leading companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are attributed to rising labor costs and other related expenses, including maintenance, safety, and special reserves [1][3]. - **Special Reserves**: The release of special reserves has been identified as an effective way to lower production costs. Companies like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy have successfully reduced their special reserves to enhance performance [1][5]. - **Cost Variability Among Companies**: There are significant differences in cost changes among coal companies. For instance, Shaanxi Coal's costs increased mainly due to depreciation and labor costs, while Zhongmei Energy managed to dilute production costs through new efficient capacity [1][3][6][7]. - **Resource Tax Impact**: The increase in resource tax rates in regions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia has raised the complete cost of coal production by at least 10 RMB per ton, putting pressure on profitability [1][12]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The profitability of the thermal coal industry is heavily influenced by selling prices. For example, at a selling price of 600 RMB per ton, the profit is approximately 50 RMB, while at 1,000 RMB, the profit increases to about 100 RMB [1][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Cost Composition**: The complete cost in the coal industry consists of production costs, taxes, and additional expenses, with resource tax accounting for 80-90% of the tax component [2][4]. - **Performance of Different Companies**: In 2024, Shaanxi Coal had the highest net profit per ton at 208 RMB, while China Shenhua had a lower net profit of 128 RMB, indicating differences in cost control and pricing strategies [3][14]. - **Market Sentiment**: Current thermal coal prices are around 620 RMB, which is slightly lower than the 13th Five-Year Plan period but comparable to early 2023 levels. The market shows optimism regarding future prices, particularly in the metallurgical coke sector [17][18]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The call suggests focusing on leading companies such as Shaanxi Coal, Zhongmei Energy, and China Shenhua, which have strong competitive advantages and high dividend yields [3][18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the coal industry's cost dynamics, profitability, and investment opportunities.
锰硅月报:预期持续扰动盘面,现实端无明显改善,建议以观望为主-20250704
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 12:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For manganese silicon, the fundamental situation points downward in the long - term, with an over - supplied industrial pattern, expected marginal weakening of future demand in Q3, and potential downward adjustments in manganese ore and electricity prices. In the short - term, the market is driven by sentiment and expectations, and it's recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high volatility and lack of a clear trend [15]. - For silicon iron, in the long - run, it may face the risk of weakening demand, especially in the coil sector and potential significant drops in hot metal production. In the short - term, it's also recommended to stay on the sidelines as the price is in a volatile state [96]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price situation: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 564 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week and 290 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; futures主力 (SM509) closed at 5712 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton from last week and 290 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; basis was 118 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.04% [14][20]. - Profit and cost: Manganese silicon's estimated spot profit remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 184 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 302 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 510 yuan/ton. The estimated production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5734 yuan/ton, Ningxia 5801 yuan/ton, and Guangxi 6060 yuan/ton [14]. - Supply and demand: Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output was 18.01 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week. Weekly output of rebar was 221.08 tons, up 3.24 tons week - on - week. Daily average hot metal output was 240.85 tons, down 1.41 tons week - on - week [14]. - Inventory: Estimated visible manganese silicon inventory was 67.03 tons, down 1.49 tons week - on - week, still at a high level [14]. - Strategy: In the current high - volatility and trend - less situation, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [15]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of July 3, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 564 yuan/ton, futures主力 (SM509) closed at 5712 yuan/ton, basis was 118 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 2.04%, at a neutral historical level [20]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: As of July 3, 2025, estimated spot profit of manganese silicon remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 184 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 302 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 510 yuan/ton [25]. - Production cost: As of July 3, 2025, estimated production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5734 yuan/ton, Ningxia 5801 yuan/ton, and Guangxi 6060 yuan/ton. Main manganese ore prices and power prices were relatively stable [27][30]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: As of July 3, 2025, Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output was 18.01 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week, with cumulative weekly output down about 2.99% year - on - year. In May 2025, Steel Union's manganese silicon output was 74.3 tons, down 6.29 tons month - on - month [44]. - Demand: Weekly output of rebar was 221.08 tons, up 3.24 tons week - on - week, with cumulative weekly output down about 4.58% year - on - year. Daily average hot metal output was 240.85 tons, down 1.41 tons week - on - week, still at a high level [58][61]. 3.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: As of July 3, 2025, estimated visible manganese silicon inventory was 67.03 tons, down 1.49 tons week - on - week, still at a high level [70]. - Steel mill inventory: In June, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 15.49 days, up 0.34 days month - on - month, still relatively low [76]. 3.6 Graphical Trends - This week, the manganese silicon futures price showed a volatile trend, with a weekly decline of 16 yuan/ton or - 0.28%. In the short - term, it's expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton and the support of the rebound trend line. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [79]. Silicon Iron 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price situation: As of July 3, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, the futures主力 (SF509) closed at 5390 yuan/ton, the basis was 60 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 1.10%, at a relatively neutral historical level [95]. - Profit and cost: Estimated spot profit of silicon iron remained in a loss state, with Inner Mongolia at - 438 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 304 yuan/ton, and Qinghai at - 452 yuan/ton. Main production costs were relatively stable [95]. - Supply and demand: Steel Union's weekly silicon iron output was 10.02 tons, up 0.27 tons week - on - week. Daily average hot metal output was 240.85 tons, down 1.41 tons week - on - week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 40.6 tons, down 2.6 tons year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of silicon iron was 16.53 tons, down 2.73 tons year - on - year [94][95]. - Inventory: Estimated visible silicon iron inventory was 13.58 tons, up 1.48 tons week - on - week, at a relatively high level compared to the same period [94]. - Strategy: It's recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high volatility and lack of a clear trend [96]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of July 3, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, the futures主力 (SF509) closed at 5390 yuan/ton, the basis was 60 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 1.10%, at a relatively neutral historical level [101]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: As of July 3, 2025, estimated spot profit of silicon iron remained in a loss state, with Inner Mongolia at - 438 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 304 yuan/ton, and Qinghai at - 452 yuan/ton [106]. - Production cost: As of July 3, 2025, main production costs were relatively stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5538 yuan/ton, Ningxia at 5454 yuan/ton, and Qinghai at 5602 yuan/ton [112]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: As of July 3, 2025, Steel Union's weekly silicon iron output was 10.02 tons, up 0.27 tons week - on - week, with cumulative weekly output up about 2.45% year - on - year. In May 2025, silicon iron output was 41.48 tons, down 2.53 tons month - on - month [117]. - Demand: Daily average hot metal output was 240.85 tons, down 1.41 tons week - on - week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 40.6 tons, down 2.6 tons year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of silicon iron was 16.53 tons, down 2.73 tons year - on - year [94][126]. 3.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: As of July 3, 2025, estimated visible silicon iron inventory was 13.58 tons, up 1.48 tons week - on - week, at a relatively high level compared to the same period [140]. - Steel mill inventory: In May, the average available days of silicon iron in steel mills was 15.38 days, up 0.18 days month - on - month, still at a relatively low historical level [143]. 3.6 Graphical Trends - This week, the silicon iron futures price showed a wide - range volatile trend, with a weekly decline of 6 yuan/ton or - 0.11% and a weekly amplitude of 4.5%. In the short - term, there is obvious pressure around 5500 yuan/ton. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines and not blindly buy at the bottom [146].
瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250702
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 09:39
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission emphasized the in - depth promotion of the construction of a unified national market and the governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises. The news of "emission reduction and production limitation in Tangshan from July 4th to 15th" boosted the steel market. The RB2510 contract's 1 - hour MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis with an enlarged red column. The operation suggestion is to be bullish with oscillations, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,065.00 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan; the position volume is 2,226,379 lots, up 150,312 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is 32,001 lots, up 28,107 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread is - 14 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 25,270 tons, up 656 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 126 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,180.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Hangzhou (actual weight) is 3,262 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,190.00 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,150.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The RB main contract basis is 115.00 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 50.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 706.00 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,265.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,920.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory is 13,930.23 million tons, up 36.07 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants is 73.81 million tons, down 7.31 million tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills is 627.51 million tons, down 6.50 million tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan is 77.26 million tons, up 8.00 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.85%, up 0.04% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills is 217.84 million tons, up 5.66 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills for rebar is 47.75%, up 1.25%. The weekly inventory of rebar in sample steel mills is 185.60 million tons, up 3.28 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 363.40 million tons, down 5.35 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 67.71%, unchanged; the monthly output of domestic crude steel is 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars is 1,730 million tons, up 42 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 1,010.00 million tons, up 16.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.72, down 0.13; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is 3.70%, down 0.30%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion is - 10.70%, down 0.40%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 5.60%, down 0.20%. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 625,020 million square meters, down 4,704 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23,184 million square meters, down 5,348 million square meters; the unsold housing area is 41,264.00 million square meters, up 439.00 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission pointed out the in - depth promotion of the construction of a unified national market with the basic requirements of "five unifications and one opening", and emphasized the governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises and the withdrawal of backward production capacity. As of June 30, 27 cities have introduced 34 real - estate market relaxation policies, and some housing provident fund policies have been optimized [2]. 4. Key Points of Attention - The weekly output, mill inventory, and social inventory data of rebar on Thursday [2].
瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250630
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 10:11
Report Information - Report Title: "Rebar Industry Chain Daily Report 2025/6/30" [1] - Researcher: Cai Yuehui [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F0251444 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0013101 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the RB2510 contract rose and then fell. Macroscopically, China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests to obtain so - called tariff exemptions. If this happens, China will resolutely counter and safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased, the capacity utilization rate reached 47.75%, and the operating rate of electric - arc furnace steel mills continued to decline. Terminal demand was average, with factory inventories increasing and social inventories decreasing, and the decline in total inventory narrowed. The apparent demand remained around 2.19 million tons. Raw material coal and coke prices declined at the end of the session, weakening cost support, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA adjusted from high levels, and the red column shrank. The operation suggestion is short - term trading within the day, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 2,997 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the trading volume of the RB main contract was 2,124,170 lots, down 18,643 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was 1,534 lots, down 31,792 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 18 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 18,221 tons, unchanged; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 126 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,231 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the basis of the RB main contract was 153 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 713 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the domestic iron ore port inventory was 139.3023 million tons, up 360,700 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 738,100 tons, down 73,100 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.2751 million tons, down 65,000 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 772,600 tons, up 80,000 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.1784 million tons, up 56,600 tons; the capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills for rebar was 47.75%, up 1.25 percentage points; the factory inventory of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.856 million tons, up 32,800 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.634 million tons, down 53,500 tons; the operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 86.55 million tons, up 53,000 tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 17.3 million tons, up 42,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 1.01 million tons, up 16,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.72, down 0.13; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 3.70%, down 0.30 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.70%, down 0.40 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 5.60%, down 0.20 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.2502 billion square meters, down 4.704 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, down 53.48 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing was 412.64 million square meters, up 4.39 million square meters. In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment continued to improve [2] Industry News - In the five sub - indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, and supplier delivery time index were all above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employment index were below the critical point. On the 29th, the Ministry of Water Resources and the China Meteorological Administration jointly issued a red mountain flood disaster meteorological warning, predicting a high possibility of mountain floods in eastern Sichuan and western Chongqing from 20:00 on the 29th to 20:00 on the 30th. In addition, the Ministry of Water Resources launched a level - IV emergency response for flood prevention in Chongqing, Sichuan, and Gansu on the 29th [2]