Group 1 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has continued to decline after the auction, currently down by 6.5 basis points, reported at 4.844% [1]

Group 1 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 6.5 basis points, reaching 4.844% [1]

Group 1 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 5% before retreating nearly 10 basis points, indicating a temporary impact from Moody's downgrade of the U.S. rating [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary will attend the G7 finance ministers meeting, raising hopes for increased market certainty [1] - Current market sentiment shows a high proportion of long positions in gold, silver, and oil [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index shows a long position ratio of 52% compared to 48% short positions [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a long position ratio of 31% against 69% short positions [3] - The Nasdaq Index reflects a long position ratio of 19% versus 81% short positions [3] - The Dow Jones Index has a long position ratio of 51% compared to 49% short positions [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a long position ratio of 28% against 72% short positions [3] - The German DAX 40 Index has a long position ratio of 17% versus 83% short positions [3] Group 3 - The Euro/USD pair has a long position ratio of 36% against 64% short positions [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a long position ratio of 20% compared to 80% short positions [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a long position ratio of 43% against 57% short positions [3] - The Euro/AUD pair reflects a long position ratio of 31% versus 69% short positions [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a long position ratio of 75% compared to 25% short positions [3] - The GBP/JPY pair shows a long position ratio of 43% against 57% short positions [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a long position ratio of 49% compared to 51% short positions [3] - The USD/CAD pair reflects a long position ratio of 54% against 46% short positions [3] - The USD/CHF pair shows a long position ratio of 88% compared to 12% short positions [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair has a long position ratio of 62% against 38% short positions [4] - The AUD/JPY pair shows a long position ratio of 32% compared to 68% short positions [4] - The CAD/JPY pair has a long position ratio of 33% against 67% short positions [4] - The NZD/USD pair reflects a long position ratio of 61% compared to 39% short positions [4] - The NZD/JPY pair shows a long position ratio of 69% against 31% short positions [4] - The USD/CNH pair has a long position ratio of 81% compared to 19% short positions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 5% for the first time since April 2023, influenced by inflation expectations and a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating by Moody's [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The 30-year Treasury yield is positively correlated with economic growth expectations; a rise in yield typically indicates reduced demand for safe-haven assets as investors shift to riskier assets [2]. - The recent increase in the yield reflects market optimism regarding manufacturing recovery and inflation rebound earlier this year, followed by a decline due to heightened global economic uncertainty [2]. Group 2: Credit Rating Impact - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing increased government debt and interest payment ratios, making it the last major agency to strip the U.S. of its AAA rating [3]. - The downgrade follows similar actions by Standard & Poor's in 2011 and Fitch in August 2023, both of which highlighted deteriorating fiscal conditions and rising federal debt [3]. Group 3: Treasury Yield Dynamics - The 30-year Treasury yield serves as a barometer for economic fundamentals and a testing ground for policy dynamics, influenced by Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and government debt levels [4]. - The yield's fluctuations are critical for asset pricing and predicting market turning points, reflecting broader economic conditions and investor sentiment [4]. Group 4: Global Asset Allocation - U.S. Treasury bonds are viewed as a benchmark for "risk-free" rates, with the 30-year yield serving as a pricing basis for corporate bonds and mortgage rates [5]. - In times of global economic volatility, the 30-year Treasury becomes a safe haven for international capital due to its high liquidity and credit rating [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - If tariffs are strictly enforced, oil prices may decline, potentially lowering U.S. inflation and prompting the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts, which could lead to further increases in Treasury yields [6]. - The market remains cautious about whether the recent yield increase will trigger a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [6].