每经AI快讯，周三(1月7日)纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率跌3.73个基点，报4.1358%，北京时间 21:15发布美国ADP就业数据(小非农就业报告)之后、美股开盘之前刷新日低至4.1221%，ISM非制造业 指数、职位空缺数据发布后迅速收窄跌幅。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Natixis expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates three more times next year, each by 25 basis points, before pausing further changes [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - The anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to occur in 2024 [1] - The forecast includes a prediction that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach a low of approximately 4.15% by 2026, which is close to current levels [1] - By the end of next year, the 10-year Treasury yield is projected to rise to around 4.6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year benchmark yield rising by 2.75 basis points to 4.1841% by the end of trading on December 12, reflecting a weekly increase of 4.90 basis points [1] Group 1: Yield Movements - The 10-year Treasury yield traded within a range of 4.1002% to 4.2074% during the week, showing a V-shaped movement after initially rising from Monday to Wednesday [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.82 basis points to 3.5222%, with a total decline of 3.81 basis points for the week [1] - The 20-year Treasury yield increased by 5.71 basis points to 4.8089%, while the 30-year yield rose by 5.27 basis points to 4.8445% [1] Group 2: Shorter-Term Yields - The 3-year Treasury yield fell by 0.66 basis points to 3.5775% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield increased by 3.04 basis points to 3.7417% [1] - The 7-year Treasury yield rose by 4.19 basis points to 3.9440% [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.34 trillion in October, marking an increase of $4.685 billion from the previous value, remaining above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months and above $3.2 trillion for 24 months, the highest level since December 2015 [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves Overview - Foreign exchange reserves are crucial for international payments and are held by central banks and government institutions, enhancing the ability to repay short-term foreign debts and maintain economic security [1] - The sources of China's foreign exchange reserves include trade surplus, foreign direct investment (FDI), and capital flows from international investors purchasing Chinese financial assets [2] Group 2: Trade Surplus and FDI - China's trade surplus is expected to continue expanding, driven by the relative strength of global and domestic economies, with projections indicating a record high by 2026 [3] - FDI is influenced by the profitability of industrial enterprises in China, with historical trends showing that FDI growth aligns with the performance of industrial profits [3] Group 3: Capital Flows and PPI - The growth of industrial profits positively impacts the A-share market, attracting overseas financial capital, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown signs of recovery, which is expected to support industrial profit growth and further attract capital inflows [3] Group 4: Valuation and Relative Value Changes - As of Q2 2025, the composition of global foreign exchange reserves shows that the U.S. dollar accounts for 56.33%, with China's reserves primarily in U.S. dollar assets, particularly U.S. Treasury bonds [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is anticipated to decline, which would increase the value of U.S. bonds and positively impact China's foreign exchange reserves [5] Group 5: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index is expected to decline in 2026, which would raise the dollar value of non-dollar assets and positively influence China's trade surplus and capital inflows [6][7] - The relationship between the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields indicates that a decline in yields will likely lead to a decrease in the dollar index, further supporting China's foreign exchange reserves [7] Group 6: Future Projections and Implications - By 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves are projected to steadily increase from the current $3.3 trillion, supported by both absolute scale and relative value changes [8] - This increase will enhance China's ability to repay short-term foreign debts and stabilize the renminbi exchange rate, contributing to financial stability in the A-share market [8]

Group 1 - Taobao's Double 11 global sales results show that dozens of brands achieved over 10 million in overseas transactions, with more than 200,000 contracted merchants doubling their sales, outpacing the overall growth rate of Taobao's international market by three times [2] - The number of daily overseas orders during the Double 11 period experienced double-digit growth, indicating the success of the globalized "Double 11" model [2] Group 2 - Indonesia plans to impose an export tax of 7.5% to 15% on gold products starting in 2026, with different tax rates based on the processing level of the gold to support domestic refining and processing industries [3] - From January to October, China's general public budget revenue reached 186.49 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with tax revenue at 153.36 billion, up 1.7%, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.1% [4] Group 3 - Meituan Health and SF Express have established a pharmaceutical e-commerce air logistics center in Ezhou, Hubei, which is the first of its kind to operate in close proximity to a cargo airport, enabling same-day delivery to 35 cities and next-day delivery to 318 cities [5] - ByteDance's researcher was dismissed for leaking confidential information through paid interviews, highlighting the importance of information security within the company [6] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds will decline to 3.75% by mid-2026, with a potential 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [7] - A new joint venture, Hengyuan Zhiyi Intelligent Technology, has been established to focus on the development of intelligent robots and AI applications, indicating growth in the robotics sector [8] Group 5 - Tesla is set to go to court against Wuyou Media over a contract dispute, with the hearing scheduled for November 24 [9] - Ubisoft is rumored to have been acquired, following a sudden halt in stock trading and a delay in financial report release, suggesting significant developments within the company [10] Group 6 - Alibaba's new AI application, Qianwen, faced service interruptions due to overwhelming user traffic, which quickly became a trending topic on social media [11] - Peter Thiel has completely divested from Nvidia, indicating a significant shift in investment strategy [12] Group 7 - Yum China aims to increase KFC's store count by approximately one-third to over 17,000 by 2028, targeting a high single-digit annual compound growth rate in system sales from 2026 to 2028, with a goal of surpassing 10 billion RMB in operating profit by 2028 [13]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may lead to a decline in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to 3.8%-3.9% within the next three to six months [1] Group 1 - Jussi Hiljanen, Chief Strategist at SEB Research, indicates that the Federal Reserve's decision to end quantitative tightening in early December will support Treasury yields [1] - The narrowing of the policy interest rate spread and the reduction in the cost of hedging international real funds are expected to further support Treasury yields [1] - The potential for lower yields may be driven by these macroeconomic factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased by 4 basis points to 4.037% [1] Group 1 - The rise in the 10-year Treasury yield indicates a shift in investor sentiment and potential implications for borrowing costs and economic outlook [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has dropped to 3.975%, marking the first time it has fallen below 4% since mid-September and the lowest intraday level since early April following Trump's tariff announcement [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields is attributed to rising concerns about the health of the economy, which has increased bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months [1] - A slight decline in economic confidence was observed after two regional banks reported issues with their loan accounts, contributing to a downturn in regional bank stocks and dragging down stock indices [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The rise in bond prices has led to a natural decrease in U.S. Treasury yields, reflecting market reactions to economic uncertainties [1]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a daily decline of 0.53%, reaching 4.311% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 1.54%, reaching 4.425% [1] Group 1 - The rise in the 10-year Treasury yield indicates a shift in investor sentiment and potential implications for borrowing costs [1]