每经AI快讯，8月20日，10年期美债收益率日内跌幅达到0.53%，报4.311。 ...

10年期美债收益率日内涨幅达1.54%，报4.425。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from TS Lombard suggest that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is unlikely to fall below 4% due to stable term premiums and limited room for further yield declines if risk premiums do not compress significantly [1] Group 1: Yield Analysis - The additional yield required by investors for holding longer-term U.S. Treasuries, known as term premium, has not changed significantly recently [1] - The stability in term premiums indicates that there is limited space for further declines in yields [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is not expected to lower interest rates below 3% in the next easing cycle, which will further support high yields [1]

Core Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.607%, marking the highest level since February 13, with a reported yield of 4.583% [1] Group 1 - The increase in the 10-year Treasury yield indicates a significant shift in the bond market, reflecting investor sentiment and economic outlook [1]

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis of Spot Gold - The core viewpoint is that a significant trade agreement between China and the U.S. has led to a major easing of tariffs, resulting in a sharp decline in spot gold prices [2] - Following the agreement on May 12, 2025, spot gold prices fell nearly $80, reaching a low of $3245.85 per ounce, and continued to decline to $3137.33 per ounce by May 15, representing a drop of over 9% from April highs [2] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced risk aversion due to trade easing, with funds moving from gold to the stock market, alongside a rebound in the U.S. dollar index to 101.04 and a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.536%, increasing the holding cost of gold [2] - There is a divergence between the physical and financial markets, with brand gold jewelry prices falling to 975-992 yuan per gram, while demand for gold bars increased by 29.81% in the first quarter, indicating stable consumer decision-making [2] - The outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing U.S.-China trade dynamics, but geopolitical risks and global central bank gold purchases (with China increasing holdings for six consecutive months) provide medium to long-term support for gold prices, with institutions predicting a rise to $3500.00-$3700.00 by year-end [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Spot Gold - The recent price movements in the spot gold market have shown volatility, with a low of $3120.57 followed by a V-shaped recovery, currently priced around $3238.00 per ounce [3] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish arrangement in the 15-minute moving average, suggesting a higher probability of short-term price increases [3] - A trading strategy is recommended, advising investors to consider going long if prices fall to the support level of $3215.50, with a stop-loss set at $3190.00 and a take-profit target at the resistance level of $3265.00 [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Spot Silver - The spot silver market did not break the key support level of $31.630 as expected, instead rebounding strongly after testing this support, with current prices around $32.660 [5] - The 15-minute short-term chart shows a bullish arrangement in the moving averages, indicating a high probability of continued price increases in the short term [5] - A specific trading guideline suggests waiting for a price drop to the support level of $32.550 to go long, with a stop-loss at $32.290 and a take-profit target at the resistance level of $32.920 [5]

Group 1 - The core elements of the current bull market remain intact, including resilient macro data, improving earnings, and easing trade tensions, despite the rebound being characterized as the "least popular" one [1] - The S&P 500 index is expected to reach historical highs of 6144 points this quarter, although the risk of a pullback is increasing [1] - The rise in yields is expected to drive investors towards high-quality stocks, particularly large tech stocks, while putting pressure on consumer staples and utilities [4] Group 2 - The market sentiment is optimistic, with active long investors appearing under-allocated compared to the S&P 500 index's rise, yet there has not been a significant "chase" for tech stocks [6] - The industrial sector showed resilience in the recent market rebound, indicating active buying rather than passive short covering [6] - Consumer spending data as of May 6 shows positive trends, contributing to the overall optimistic market sentiment [6] Group 3 - Funds are flowing back into U.S. risk assets, reversing the trend of outflows that primarily affected the Magnificent 7 stocks earlier in the year [7]