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碳酸锂日评20251210:偏弱震荡-20251210
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 05:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures main contract declined on December 9, with a trading volume of 512,215 lots (-87,152) and an open interest of 575,421 lots (-17,708). The spot market trading was light, and the basis discount narrowed [1] - On the cost side, the price of spodumene concentrate remained flat, and the price of lepidolite remained flat. On the supply side, the production of lithium carbonate increased last week, the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased, and the production of lithium carbonate from other raw materials increased. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased last week, and the production of ternary materials decreased. In December, the production reduction of lithium carbonate increased, and the production schedule of lithium carbonate decreased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in November; the 3C shipments weakened; the production growth of energy storage batteries stagnated in December [1] - In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 12,920 tons (-200 tons). The smelters and other sectors reduced their inventories, and the downstream increased their inventories. In summary, the news of lithium mine restart was repeated. The weekly production of lithium carbonate was at a high level. The downstream wait - and - see sentiment remained strong. The spot market trading was light, and the demand growth stagnated. In the short term, the fundamentals showed strong supply and weak demand. Under the position limit, the lithium price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - The trading strategy is to hold short positions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared with previous days. For example, the near - month contract closed at 92,580 yuan/ton on December 8, down 220 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: On December 9, the trading volume of the lithium carbonate futures main contract was 512,215 lots, a decrease of 87,152 lots, and the open interest was 575,421 lots, a decrease of 17,708 lots [1] Spot Market - **Lithium - related Products**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,400 yuan/ton, the price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,165 - 1,184 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) averaged 1,610 - 1,645 yuan/ton [1] - **Other Battery - related Materials**: The prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other battery - related materials also changed. For example, the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 105,000 - 105,750 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased, and the production of lithium carbonate from other raw materials increased [1] - **Demand**: The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased last week. In December, the production reduction of lithium carbonate increased, and the production schedule of lithium carbonate decreased. The production of power batteries increased last week. The year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in November, the 3C shipments weakened, and the production growth of energy storage batteries stagnated in December [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 12,920 tons, a decrease of 200 tons. The smelters and other sectors reduced their inventories, and the downstream increased their inventories [1] News - In November, Chile's copper exports fell to 4.28 billion US dollars, and lithium exports were 167.41 million US dollars [1]