1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core driving logic of lithium carbonate futures prices in the next month will focus on the resumption of production on the supply side and the restocking demand on the demand side. The supply of lithium salts will increase in October due to the capacity release of salt lakes. If the resumption of production at the "Jianxiaowo" lithium mine exceeds market expectations, it will expand the supply scale and push the futures prices into a weak - oscillating channel. On the demand side, downstream lithium - battery material enterprises' demand is expected to increase month - on - month by the end of the year, which will support the futures prices [3]. - The lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 72,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the lithium carbonate market. Positive factors include policy support for new energy vehicles and energy storage, and possible overseas enterprises' rush - to - export sentiment. Negative factors include the planned resumption of the "Jianxiaowo" lithium mine and the pressure of concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation in November [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The strong support level for the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 72,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.4% and a historical percentile of 14.9% over three years [2]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 75,980 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan (0.37%) daily and 3,300 yuan (4.54%) weekly. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts have different changes [8]. - **Spread Data**: For example, LC2511 - LC2512 is - 340 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 160 yuan (88.89%) and a weekly increase of 220 yuan (183.33%) [8]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of different types of lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, have different daily and weekly changes. For instance, lithium mica with Li2O:2 - 2.5% has an average price of 1,845 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (1.1%) daily and 120 yuan (6.96%) weekly [20]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: Industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, as well as different types of lithium hydroxide, have their own price changes. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (0.14%) daily and 1,100 yuan (1.55%) weekly [23]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spreads**: The spreads between electric carbon and industrial carbon, electric hydrogen and electric carbon, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan and South Korea and domestic prices have different changes [26]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract has its own historical trend. The brand - based basis quotes of different lithium carbonate producers also vary, such as the basis of Tianqi Lithium being 300 yuan for the LC2507 contract [30][31]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 29,892, a decrease of 813 from the previous day. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [34]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore, including lithium spodumene and lithium mica, has its own trends. The import profit of lithium carbonate also has a certain pattern [37][38]. 3.5 Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategies - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises worried about rising procurement costs, they can use futures and options. For example, they can buy corresponding futures contracts with an 80% hedging ratio at 70,000 - 73,000 yuan and sell put options with a 20% hedging ratio [2]. - **Sales Management**: To prevent the reduction of sales profits due to price drops, enterprises can sell corresponding futures contracts and use option combinations, such as buying put options and selling call options [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory can short futures contracts with a 40% hedging ratio at 80,000 - 83,000 yuan and sell call options with a 20% hedging ratio [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction affecting the lithium carbonate futures price stems from the tug - of - war between supply - side expected changes and demand - side peak - season support. The resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine under CATL is a key variable. The supply - side dynamics have led to market anticipation of future price declines, while the demand side provides strong support [3]. - The resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine is uncertain. Before September 30, the lithium carbonate futures price is likely to remain stable. After that, price fluctuations will depend on "demand fulfillment strength". It is expected that until National Day, the lithium carbonate futures price will fluctuate between 68,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include potential mine - end production halts in Jiangxi and new policies supporting downstream demand. Bearish factors include the risk of insufficient restocking demand during the peak season and the potential resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Futures Data - **Price Prediction**: The strong pressure level for the lithium carbonate main contract is 80,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.0% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 65.9% [2]. - **Contract Data**: For the main contract, the closing price is 73,640 yuan/ton (up 0.63% daily, 4.13% weekly), trading volume is 343,863 lots (down 31.26% daily, 54.24% weekly), and open interest is 294,624 lots (down 1.93% daily, 13.55% weekly). Similar data are provided for the weighted contract and other contract spreads [9][10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 39,234 lots, up 0.0106 daily and 0.0297 weekly [10]. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: Different types of lithium ore have varying price changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,815 yuan/ton (stable daily, 0% weekly), and lithium辉石 (Li2O: 6% from Australia CIF) is 825 US dollars/ton (up 0.61% daily, 2.48% weekly) [20]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium**: Industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have different price movements. For instance, the industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,900 yuan/ton (up 0.42% daily, down 0.42% weekly) [24]. - **Price Spreads**: The electric - carbon to industrial - carbon price spread is 2,250 yuan/ton (stable), the electric - hydrogen to electric - carbon spread is 5,820 yuan/ton (down 5.67% daily, 6.43% weekly), and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF Japan and South Korea to domestic spread is - 7,602.85 yuan/ton (up 4.90% daily, 11.72% weekly) [27]. - **Downstream Products**: Various downstream lithium - related products such as phosphoric (manganese) iron lithium, ternary materials, and electrolytes also have their own price changes. For example, the average price of phosphoric iron lithium (power - type) is 33,540 yuan/ton (up 0.21% daily) [29]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The main - continuous basis of lithium carbonate and brand - specific basis quotes are presented. For example, the basis quotes of some well - known lithium companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are provided, with values ranging from - 1,100 to 300 yuan/ton for different specifications and contracts [31][32]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 39,234 lots, an increase of 410 lots from the previous day. Different warehouses show different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [35]. Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit from purchasing lithium ore to produce lithium carbonate is presented, including from purchasing lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%) and lithium辉石 concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) [39]. - **Import Profit**: The lithium carbonate import profit is also shown, although specific details are not fully elaborated in the given text [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Lithium mica extraction of lithium has changed from a previous contraction to an expansion expectation, which is expected to trigger bearish sentiment in the market, and the futures price may be weak in the short term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton [1] - The average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,600 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 844 dollars, down 5 dollars [1] - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,075 yuan, down 40 yuan [2] - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,775 yuan, down 40 yuan [2] - The price of amblygonite (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 5,770 yuan, down 230 yuan [2] - The price of amblygonite (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 6,845 yuan, down 205 yuan [2] Lithium Futures Prices - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 71,020 yuan/ton, up 1.81% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 70,860 yuan/ton, up 1.64% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 71,000 yuan/ton, up 1.25% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 71,300 yuan/ton, up 1.57% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2601 is 71,280 yuan/ton, up 1.48% [1] Positive Electrode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,470 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,900 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 118,750 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,550 yuan/ton [2] Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton [2] - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,850 yuan/ton, down 880 yuan [2] - The price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 140 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - The price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 440 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,512 tons, down 1,580 tons [2] - The smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 36,213 tons, down 3,262 tons [2] - The downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 58,279 tons, up 3,072 tons [2] - The other inventory (weekly, tons) is 44,020 tons, down 1,390 tons [2] - The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 38,391 tons, up 290 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 73,549 yuan, and the profit is - 1,761 yuan [3] - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,368 yuan, and the profit is - 7,563 yuan [3] Industry News - Ningde Times' subsidiary is discussing the resumption of production of Shixiawo lithium mine, aiming to resume production in November, but the actual situation is yet to be determined [3] - Six departments jointly issued a notice to carry out a 3 - month special rectification action on network chaos in the automobile industry [3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Lithium mica extraction of lithium has changed from a contraction to an expansion expectation, which is expected to stimulate bearish sentiment in the market, and the futures price may be weak in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,450 yuan, down 1,150 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,200 yuan, down 1,150 yuan [1] - The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts 2509, 2510, 2511, 2512, and 2601 are 70,300 yuan (-5.33%), 70,560 yuan (-5.29%), 70,720 yuan (-4.87%), 70,880 yuan (-4.37%), and 70,800 yuan (-4.81%) respectively [1] Lithium Ore - The price of spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 849 yuan, down 30 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,115 yuan, down 42.5 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,815 yuan, down 50 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li₂O: 6% - 7%) is 6,000 yuan, down 350 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li₂O: 7% - 8%) is 7,050 yuan, down 300 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,620 yuan, down 275 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,900 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 118,750 yuan, down 125 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,550 yuan, down 75 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 2,730 yuan, up 1,030 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 160 yuan, up 20 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 320 yuan, down 160 yuan [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 140,092 tons, down 1,044 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters is 39,475 tons, down 3,861 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream is 55,207 tons, up 2,407 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 45,410 tons, up 410 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 38,101 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate externally is 73,889 yuan, and the profit is - 1,507 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,715 yuan, and the profit is - 7,321 yuan [3] Industry News - Ningde Times' subsidiary is promoting the resumption of production of the Shixiawo lithium mine and aims to complete the resumption in November this year [3] - Six departments jointly issued a notice to carry out a three - month special rectification action on network chaos in the automotive industry [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On September 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot market was active in low - price point pricing, and the basis premium widened. Considering the cost, supply, demand, and inventory aspects, short - term supply and demand are both strong. With the active resumption of lithium mines, the expectation of supply contraction weakens, and the lithium carbonate price is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner. The trading strategy suggests shorting on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 10, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with decreases of 2,520 yuan/ton, 2,160 yuan/ton, 2,000 yuan/ton, and 2,000 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 751,480 hands (+159,805), and the open interest was 340,814 hands (-10,526) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium ore decreased. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) decreased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 73,450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory Data**: The registered warehouse receipt was 38,101 tons, and the social inventory decreased. The inventory of smelters decreased, while the inventory of downstream and other sectors increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 140,092 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Industry News - **Project Progress**: Australia's Galan Lithium company's Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project in Argentina made significant progress in the first - phase construction, completing the design of the 4th pond, which can support an annual operation of 400 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. The project aims to reach an annual production of 21,000 tons in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially 60,000 tons in 2030 [1]. - **Export Data**: In August, Brazilian lithium ore exports decreased by more than one - third year - on - year and nearly 43% month - on - month. The export decline was mainly due to the inactivity of Brazil's largest lithium ore exporter, Sigma Lithium [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, with small increases in the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials. The resumption of lithium mines is actively advancing, weakening the expectation of supply contraction [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the production of lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased. In August, the year - on - year growth of new energy vehicle production slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On September 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot market had active low - price point pricing, and the basis premium expanded. Considering factors such as cost, supply, demand, and inventory, with short - term supply and demand both strong and the weakening expectation of supply contraction due to the active resumption of lithium mines, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to decline with fluctuations. It is recommended to go short on rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On September 10, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with the near - month contract closing at 70,300 yuan/ton, down 2,520 yuan. The trading volume was 751,480 lots (+159,805), and the open interest was 340,814 lots (-10,526) [1]. Spot Market - The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and ternary precursors showed different degrees of change on September 10. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan [1]. Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 38,101 tons. The social inventory decreased, the smelter inventory decreased, while the downstream and other inventories increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,044 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Industry News - Australia's Galan Lithium company's Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project in Argentina made significant progress in the first - phase construction, with the design of the 4th pond completed. The project has a phased development plan, aiming for an annual production of 21,000 tons of LCE in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially 60,000 tons in 2030 [1]. - In August, Brazilian lithium spodumene exports decreased by more than one - third year - on - year and nearly 43% month - on - month. The suspension of shipments by the largest producer, Sigma Lithium, was a major factor [1].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the upcoming resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine by CATL, which is causing significant fluctuations in the lithium carbonate market [1][2]. - On September 10, the domestic lithium carbonate futures contract opened at 69,000 yuan/ton, close to the limit down price of 68,400 yuan/ton, and closed with a decline of 4.87% [1]. - Lithium companies in the A-share market experienced substantial stock price drops, with Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium both opening nearly 5% lower and closing down 5% and 3.78% respectively [1]. Group 2 - The Jiangxiawo mine is the largest lithium mica mining area in the Yichun region, and its resumption is seen as exceeding market expectations, with some industry insiders expressing skepticism about the timeline [2][3]. - A meeting was held by Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., a subsidiary of CATL, to expedite the resumption of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, indicating a proactive approach to returning to production [1][2]. - The resumption of the Jiangxiawo mine is expected to alleviate supply disruptions and shift the market focus back to fundamental factors [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the upcoming resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine by CATL, which is causing significant fluctuations in the lithium carbonate market and affecting stock prices of lithium companies [2][3]. - On September 10, the main contract for lithium carbonate opened at 69,000 yuan/ton, close to the limit down price of 68,400 yuan/ton, and closed with a decline of 4.87% [2]. - Major lithium companies in the A-share market, such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, saw their stock prices drop significantly, with Tianqi Lithium down 5% and Ganfeng Lithium down 3.78% by the end of the trading day [2]. Group 2 - CATL's subsidiary, Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., has established a dedicated task force to expedite the resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, which is the largest lithium mica mining area in Yichun [3]. - The Jiangxiawo mine has a recoverable reserve of 775 million tons and an estimated construction investment of 2.158 billion yuan, with a production capacity of 30 million tons per year and a service life of approximately 25.83 years [3]. - The resumption of the Jiangxiawo mine is expected to alleviate supply concerns in the market, allowing a return to fundamental trading logic, as the market had previously anticipated potential shutdowns of other lithium companies in the region [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic lithium carbonate futures market experienced a significant decline, with the main contract (2511) opening at 69,000 CNY/ton and ultimately closing down 4.87% at 70,720 CNY/ton, indicating a broader bearish sentiment in the market [1][2]. Market Performance - The lithium mining sector in A-shares saw notable declines, with Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) dropping 5%, and other companies like Jiangte Electric (002176.SZ) and Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ) falling over 4% [4]. - The trading volume for the main lithium carbonate futures contract was 751,500 lots, with a highest price of 71,000 CNY and a lowest price of 68,600 CNY [2]. Company Developments - CATL's subsidiary, Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., has made progress in resuming operations at the Jiangxi Yichun Jiansha Wo lithium mine, with mining rights and permits advancing faster than the previously expected 3-6 month downtime [4]. - The Jiansha Wo mine is one of the largest lithium mica mines in the Yichun area, with a recoverable reserve of 77,492 million tons and an estimated service life of over 25 years based on an annual production capacity of 30 million tons [4][5]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market participants have reacted to the resumption news with excessive interpretation, leading to abnormal fluctuations in lithium carbonate futures prices, reflecting a spread of irrational market sentiment [5]. - Analysts predict that the lithium carbonate spot price will fluctuate between 69,000 and 73,000 CNY/ton in the coming month and a half, while a long-term price balance is expected to settle between 62,000 and 65,000 CNY/ton due to increased supply from overseas lithium mines and technological advancements in lithium salt production [6].

Group 1 - The domestic lithium carbonate futures market has experienced a significant decline, with the main contract (2511) opening at 69,000 yuan/ton and closing down 4.87% at 70,700 yuan/ton, approaching the limit down price of 68,400 yuan/ton [1] - Other lithium carbonate contracts also saw substantial price drops, indicating a broader market downturn [1] - Industry insiders suggest that the recent price movements may be an overreaction to news regarding CATL's resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, which is progressing faster than the previously expected 3-6 month downtime [1] Group 2 - CATL's resumption of production aims to expedite the reopening of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, with mining rights and permits progressing smoothly [1] - There is uncertainty regarding CATL's production targets, leading to mixed interpretations of the news within the market [1] - It is anticipated that lithium carbonate spot prices will fluctuate within the range of 69,000 to 73,000 yuan/ton over the next month and a half [1]