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【广发宏观贺骁束】8月经济初窥
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-08-16 02:42
Group 1: Industrial Sector Performance - The industrial sector's operating rates have shown mixed trends since August, with upstream operating rates remaining relatively high. As of the second week of August, the operating rate of 247 blast furnaces nationwide increased by 7.4 percentage points year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 1.2 percentage points [1][6][7] - The operating rates for coking enterprises and PVC also saw year-on-year increases of 5.7 percentage points and 5.5 percentage points, respectively [1][6][7] - Power generation growth slightly decreased to 3.2% year-on-year as of August 7, down from 3.9% in July [1][8] Group 2: Infrastructure and Construction - The physical workload in infrastructure remains low, with the national cement shipment rate recorded at 40.1%, a slight decrease of 0.04 percentage points month-on-month [2][10] - The funding availability rate for construction sites was 58.8%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1 percentage points [2][10] Group 3: Consumer Activity - The average daily subway ridership in the top ten cities increased by 1.9% year-on-year to 62.73 million trips, indicating a stable rise in residents' living radius [2][11] - Domestic flights averaged 14,703 per day, up 2.0% year-on-year, while international flights saw a 12.3% increase [2][12] Group 4: Real Estate Market - Real estate sales have continued to weaken since April, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities dropping by 13.9% year-on-year in the first half of August [3][14] - The transaction area in first, second, and third-tier cities recorded year-on-year changes of -29.1%, -10.8%, and 2.4%, respectively [3][14] Group 5: Automotive Sector - Retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 4% year-on-year from August 1 to 10, while wholesale sales increased by 16% [3][17] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles grew by 6% year-on-year during the same period [3][17] Group 6: Shipping and Trade - Container throughput at domestic ports maintained a high growth rate of 7.3% year-on-year, while cargo throughput grew by 6.8% [4][19] - The number of container ships sent from China to the U.S. decreased by 11.9% year-on-year as of August 13 [4][19] Group 7: Price Trends - The Business Price Index (BPI) showed a slight recovery compared to the end of July, with the index recorded at 872 points, up 0.3% [4][22] - Prices for industrial products showed mixed trends, with coal and glass prices continuing to adjust downward [4][22][23]