Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a significant interest rate cut in September has shifted to a reduction, leading to a short-term adjustment in gold prices, which are likely to remain within a consolidation range [1]. Market Performance - On August 14, gold opened at $3356.68 per ounce, reached a high of $3374.58, and then declined to a low of $3329.84, closing at $3335.26, with a daily fluctuation of $44.74 and a drop of $21.42, or 0.64% [3]. - The gold price is currently under pressure due to reduced favorable factors and a strengthening U.S. dollar index, which rebounded and recovered losses from earlier in the week [3]. Economic Indicators - Key economic data releases include July retail sales, industrial production, and initial consumer confidence index for August, which are generally expected to be favorable for gold prices [5]. - The U.S. July PPI increased by 0.9%, the largest monthly increase in three years, indicating potential inflationary pressures that could affect future interest rate decisions [5]. Federal Reserve Outlook - There is skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's potential for a significant rate cut in September, with officials expressing that a large cut may not be appropriate given current economic conditions [5]. - The market's expectation for a substantial rate cut has diminished due to the higher-than-expected PPI and comments from Fed officials, leading to a decrease in rate cut bets [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to maintain a consolidation pattern until the September rate meeting, with a focus on the 100-day moving average as a support level [6]. - The weekly chart indicates a potential risk of a decline towards the 30-week moving average or around $3200, despite an overall upward trend [8]. - Daily analysis shows that gold has fallen below the 60-day moving average, with increased bearish momentum, while the focus remains on resistance levels around $3356 and $3373 [10].