张尧浠：9月非农好坏参半、金价短期将维持震荡调整 上交易日周四(11月20日)：国际黄金震荡十字收平，多空都未能走出方向，日内虽受到买盘支撑，以及喜忧参半的非农就业数据未打消市场对美联储12月 降息的质疑，美元指数维持在100关口上方高位震荡，金价一度再度走强，但由于美联储多位鹰派官员继续发声，泽连斯基已收到美和平计划草案等，又 打压金价回落走低，那么短期金价将继续维持震荡调整为主。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4077.91美元/盎司，先行走强录得日内高点4109.92美元，之后遇阻回落，于亚盘尾录得日内低点4038.65美元，之后又反弹 回升，并继续陷入来回过山车式震荡，最终收平于4077.22美元，日振幅71.27美元，收跌0.69美元。 展望今日周五(11月21日)：国际黄金开盘先行窄幅波动，有所止跌，美元指数早盘偏弱对其产生一定支撑，同时对于昨日的利空压力有所消化，但短期也 未能有进一步的利好支撑，故此将继续维持震荡波动为主。 日内将可关注美国11月标普全球制造业和服务业PMI初值、美国11月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值、美国11月一年期通胀率预期终值等数据，市场预期 整体好坏参半，继续对金价产生震荡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to remain bullish despite short-term fluctuations, supported by the Federal Reserve's inclination towards a loose monetary policy as indicated in the meeting minutes [1][4][6]. Market Performance - On November 19, gold opened at $4066.08 per ounce, reached a low of $4055.54, and peaked at $4132.38 before closing at $4077.77, marking a daily fluctuation of $76.84 and a gain of $11.69, or 0.29% [1]. - The market reacted to the ADP employment data, which indicated ongoing employment weakness, initially boosting expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, but these expectations later diminished to 30% [4]. Future Outlook - The gold market is anticipated to experience volatility, with expectations of negative impacts from upcoming economic data releases, including non-farm payroll and initial jobless claims [4][6]. - The potential for a rebound in gold prices remains, particularly if the price approaches the support levels around $3800 or the 60-day moving average [6][8]. Technical Analysis - The weekly chart indicates that gold prices are currently under pressure but are supported by the 10-week moving average, suggesting a potential for future strength [8]. - The daily chart shows gold is in a triangular consolidation pattern, with key resistance at $4230 and support at $3930, indicating a range for trading strategies [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4085 and $4050, while resistance levels are at $4125 and $4145 [11]. - For silver, support is noted at $51.10 and $50.80, with resistance at $52.00 and $52.60 [11].

张尧浠：众多美联储官员讲话来袭、金价维持看涨反弹预期 上交易日周二(11月11日)：国际黄金震荡收涨，虽有一定的反弹见顶预期，但仍在中轨等均线上方，多头占据优势，基本面上也无明显利空因素，故此， 短期仍将继续维持看涨反弹，等待触及4250美元附近。 日内无关注的数据及事件，将留意美盘时段一系列的美联储官员讲话，包括 FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表讲话。2026年FOMC票委、费城 联储主席保尔森就金融科技发表讲话。美联储理事沃勒参加第九届金融科技年度会议。以及美国财长贝森特发表讲话。 还有次日1点15分，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克将发表讲话；美联储理事米兰将参加活动； 关注其整体讲话对于政策和经济前景的言论对金价产生的走势影响。 根据之前他们的讲话整体偏鸽，都支撑进一步降息来看，预计晚间大概率将会再度利好金价，因而，日内操作将继续以低多看涨为主。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4115.74美元/盎司，先行走强，于午间录得日内高点4148.65美元，之后遇阻并维持在20美金区间内持续盘整，延续到美盘初 时段连续走低录得日内低点4097.25美元，最终触底回升，收于4126.73美元，日振幅51.4美元， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that for investors seeking comprehensive market data, timely information, and convenient trading options for gold investment, the Sina Finance APP stands out as the optimal choice due to its integrated capabilities [1]. Group 1: Market Data - The Sina Finance APP provides real-time market data for a wide range of gold products, including spot gold, gold futures, gold ETFs, and domestic gold TD, with precise and timely updates, along with professional charting tools [2]. - Specialized gold platforms (e.g., Jinrong, Wanzhou, Lingfeng) focus on their own trading products, resulting in a relatively narrow data scope and lack of market interlinkage views [2]. - Bank and brokerage apps primarily offer data on their own paper gold or agency gold products, which limits their coverage and may not meet the needs of investors looking for global gold price dynamics [2]. Group 2: Information and Research Reports - The Sina Finance APP excels in the speed of information delivery, providing 24/7 coverage of global gold market news, and features a collaboration with the World Gold Council (WGC) to offer authoritative data, professional reports, and in-depth market analysis [3]. - Specialized gold platforms tend to focus on short-term market insights and trading tips, lacking macroeconomic and deep industry analysis [4]. - Bank and brokerage apps provide general financial news but lack in-depth analysis specific to the gold sector, with few professional reports available for ordinary investors [4]. Group 3: Trading Convenience - The Sina Finance APP, while not directly holding trading licenses, collaborates with leading futures companies, allowing users to seamlessly complete futures account openings within the app, ensuring a clear and secure trading process [5]. - Specialized gold platforms optimize their processes for their own platforms, but investors need to carefully assess the qualifications of these platforms [6]. - Bank and brokerage apps make it easy to purchase paper gold or accumulate gold, but require separate futures account openings for leveraged gold futures trading, leading to operational fragmentation [6]. Group 4: Community Atmosphere and User Experience - The Sina Finance APP boasts a large user base and an active financial community where investors can exchange views and access expert articles, featuring a mature overall design with clear interfaces and well-defined functional areas [7]. - Specialized gold platforms focus more on trading signals and immediate exchanges, resulting in variable information quality that may confuse novice investors [8]. - Bank and brokerage apps primarily emphasize trading and asset display, lacking social interaction features among investors [9]. Conclusion - Overall, while specialized gold platforms excel in specific trading areas and bank/brokerage apps offer convenience for basic products, they have functional limitations. The Sina Finance APP successfully integrates market data, information, trading, and community aspects, creating a robust ecosystem for gold investment, catering to various investor needs [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in international gold prices, influenced by factors such as the U.S. government's record shutdown and the Federal Reserve's internal disagreements regarding interest rate cuts, which have led to a stronger U.S. dollar and increased pressure on gold prices [1][3][4]. Market Performance - On November 4, gold opened at $4001.88 per ounce, reached a high of $4005.56, but ultimately closed at $3931.87, down $70.01 or 1.75% [1]. - The price fluctuation for the day was $76.79, indicating significant volatility [1]. Economic Indicators - The article highlights the importance of upcoming economic data, including the U.S. ADP employment figures and ISM non-manufacturing PMI, which are expected to be better than previous values and may negatively impact gold prices [3][4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.090%, contributing to the downward pressure on gold [3]. Technical Analysis - Short-term outlook suggests that gold bears have the upper hand, with potential further declines below $3900 unless there is a surprising positive employment report [4]. - Monthly and weekly charts indicate that gold prices may face selling pressure, with potential targets at $3800 or even $3700 if bearish trends continue [8][10]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of reaching new highs around $5000 due to ongoing economic uncertainties and potential future Fed rate cuts [6]. - Factors such as the ongoing government shutdown, persistent inflation, and global central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold prices in the long run [6][8]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3900 and $3850, while resistance levels are at $3970 and $4000 [12]. - For silver, support is noted at $46.10 and $45.50, with resistance at $47.70 and $48.00 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is currently experiencing a phase of adjustment and potential decline, with a need for clearer fundamental signals to determine future trends [1][5]. Market Performance - On November 3, gold opened at $3990.81 per ounce, reached a low of $3962.57, and fluctuated between $3995 and $4030, closing at $4001.34, marking a slight decline of $2.25 or 0.056% from the previous close [1]. - The price has retraced over 11% from its historical high on October 20 but has since reduced the monthly decline to around 8%, reflecting a typical "high-level breathing" phase [5]. Influencing Factors - Increased speculative selling pressure due to rising gold tax costs and political negotiations in the U.S. contributed to the initial decline in gold prices [3]. - The market is currently awaiting key economic data releases, including the ADP employment report and ISM PMI, which are expected to influence gold prices depending on whether they meet or fall short of market expectations [3]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a potential downward trend, with expectations of a drop to $3800 or even $3700 unless the price can close above $4100 [5]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold has encountered resistance at previous trend lines, and the current support level is near the 10-week moving average, with a potential rebound if it breaks above the 5-week moving average [7]. Short-term Outlook - The short-term outlook for gold remains focused on range trading, with expectations of continued volatility until the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown and the release of non-farm payroll data [3][5]. - Key support levels to watch are $3970 and $3940, while resistance levels are at $4015 and $4030 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is high, which is likely to lead to another bullish phase for gold prices [1][5][6]. Market Performance - On October 30, international gold prices opened at $3930.35 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3915.33, and then rebounded to a high of $4026.81, closing at $4024.25, marking a daily increase of $93.9 or 2.39% [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The market is currently viewing the recent U.S.-China trade discussions as a temporary easing of tensions rather than a structural change, maintaining uncertainty in the market [3][5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is estimated at 74.7%, indicating a strong likelihood of continued easing [5]. Geopolitical and Trade Factors - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and trade policies are expected to sustain demand for gold, both from private investors and central banks [6]. - The recent announcement by Trump to reduce tariffs from 57% to 47% is seen as having minimal impact, with the market's optimism regarding trade agreements viewed as short-lived [5]. Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently showing signs of a bullish trend, with a need for further upward momentum to maintain strength above the 30-day moving average [10]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3990 or $3965, while resistance levels are at $4075 or $4100 [10]. Future Outlook - The expectation is for gold prices to rise again in the coming months, driven by continued interest rate cuts and economic data that may support bullish sentiment [6][12].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to experience a period of adjustment and potential upward movement in the coming month, with current market conditions indicating a possible recovery after recent declines [1][5][6]. Price Movement Summary - On October 22, gold opened at $4124.66 per ounce, reached a low of $4004.11, and then rebounded to a high of $4161.10 before closing at $4098.24, resulting in a daily decline of $26.42 or 0.64% [1][3]. - The price volatility for the day was $156.99, indicating significant market fluctuations [1]. Market Influences - Investor profit-taking ahead of key U.S. inflation data and optimism regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations contributed to downward pressure on gold prices, which found support near the $4000 mark [3]. - Ongoing U.S. government shutdown concerns and geopolitical tensions have created a mixed market environment, leading to cautious investor behavior [3][6]. Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that gold prices will remain in a range-bound adjustment phase, with a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut of 25 basis points anticipated on October 30 [5][6]. - If the government shutdown is resolved before the rate decision, gold prices may stabilize and begin to recover by November [5]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly chart, gold prices are currently facing resistance near the upper Bollinger Band and may test support levels around $3945 [7]. - Weekly analysis indicates potential further declines towards $3800, but any drop could present a buying opportunity due to nearby support levels [8]. - Daily charts show a bullish reversal pattern, suggesting a possible rebound, although prices remain below the 5-10 day moving averages, indicating prevailing bearish sentiment [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4040 and $3940, while resistance levels are at $4166 and $4220 [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $47.30 and $46.60, with resistance at $49.00 and $49.80 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold prices, which fell over 6.3%, is attributed to optimistic market expectations regarding the end of the U.S. government shutdown and potential trade agreements, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Market Performance - On October 21, gold opened at $4,354.42 per ounce, reached a high of $4,375.09, and then fell to a low of $4,082.92, closing at $4,124.76, marking a daily decline of $229.66 or 5.27% [3]. - The market's optimism about the U.S. government shutdown ending and trade negotiations has strengthened the dollar, further pressuring gold prices [3][5]. Future Outlook - The expectation is that gold prices will continue to decline until the government shutdown is resolved, with a focus on potential support levels for re-entry into long positions [5]. - Historical patterns suggest that the current trade optimism is temporary, and once the shutdown ends, economic data may worsen, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, which could support a rebound in gold prices [5][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold has encountered resistance near the upward trend line and is due for a technical correction, with support expected around $3,945 [5]. - The weekly chart shows a significant drop of nearly $300, confirming the effectiveness of the upward trend pressure, with expectations of a potential decline to around $3,800 [7][8]. - Daily analysis indicates that gold prices have fallen below the 5-10 day moving averages, but there is potential for a rebound if prices stabilize around the Bollinger Band midline and the 30-day moving average [10]. Trading Strategy - Key levels to watch include support at $4,050 or $3,950 and resistance at $4,155 or $4,230 for gold [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $47.30 or $46.60, with resistance at $49.00 or $49.80 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has shown strong upward momentum, reaching significant resistance levels, indicating potential for further bullish trends, with a target of $5000 if it maintains above key support levels [1][3][6]. Market Performance - On October 16, gold opened at $4207.97 per ounce, hitting a low of $4199.63 before rebounding, ultimately closing at $4325.77, marking a daily increase of $117.8 or 2.8% [3]. - The market is driven by bullish buying pressure, influenced by the U.S. Senate's failure to pass a temporary funding bill, ongoing concerns about a government shutdown, and increased expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3][6]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold is approaching resistance levels, suggesting potential for significant pullbacks if it fails to close above these levels [9]. - The weekly chart shows gold prices have breached the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a possible technical peak and subsequent correction risks [9][11]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4300 and $4270, while resistance levels are at $4390 and $4430 [11]. Economic Indicators - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including new housing starts and import price indices, which are expected to have a bearish impact on gold prices [4][6]. - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance and concerns over a government shutdown are expected to sustain bullish sentiment for gold in the near term [6][8].