Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing volatility due to rumors about the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which has led to fluctuations in gold prices, with expectations of further adjustments and potential upward movement towards the $3400 mark [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On July 16, gold prices opened at $3324.52 per ounce, initially supported by buying pressure but later faced resistance, leading to a low of $3319.51 and a high of $3376.99 during the day [3][5]. - The final closing price for gold was $3347.41, reflecting a daily increase of $22.89, or 0.69%, with a trading range of $57.48 [3][5]. - The market is currently influenced by various economic indicators, including a surprising drop in the PPI, which has reduced inflationary pressures and bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts [5][6]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold prices have not broken below the 10-week moving average, indicating potential support and a possible entry point for bullish positions if prices decline further [8][10]. - The daily chart shows that gold is maintaining a triangular consolidation pattern, suggesting that after this period of volatility, there may be an upward movement, with key resistance levels at $3355 and $3366 [10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes initial jobless claims, retail sales, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, with expectations that most of these will exert downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - The market's reaction to Trump's denial of Powell's dismissal adds uncertainty, which may increase the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - The reports present the latest data on various futures, including price differences, spreads, ratios, and related economic indicators, providing investors with information for market analysis and decision - making [1][2][4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Spread - **Price Differences**: The latest values of IF, IH, IC, and IM price differences range from - 23.24 to - 200.00, with changes from - 0.50 to 11.42 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 5.30% to 32.70% [1] - **Inter - period Spreads**: For IF, IH, IC, and IM inter - period spreads, the latest values range from - 8.80 to - 329.80, with changes from - 5.00 to 3.20 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 8.60% to 61.30% [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: The cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., have the latest values from 1.4485 to 2.1619, with changes from - 0.0167 to - 0.0016 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 38.60% to 71.30% [1] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Basis**: The latest basis values of TS, TF, T, and TL range from 0.0000 to 1.8885, with changes from - 0.0260 to 0.1426 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 7.60% to 65.10% [2] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL have the latest values from - 0.2340 to 0.2800, with changes from - 0.0400 to 0.0200 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 8.00% to 19.80% [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: The cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., have the latest values from - 18.6920 to - 0.0010, and historical percentiles from 1.30% to 2.10% [2] 3. Precious Metals Spot and Futures - **Spot Prices**: COMEX silver rose 0.68% to 37.04 dollars per ounce, London gold rose 0.33% to 3336.94 dollars per ounce, etc. [5] - **Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold fell 0.97% to 3336.00 dollars per ounce, AU2508 fell 0.54% to 777.06 yuan per gram, etc. [6] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was - 5.49, with a historical percentile of 0.80%, and silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 34, with a historical percentile of 27.30% [4] - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver ratio was 90.06, down 1.64% [4] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.2% to 4.35%, and the US dollar index fell 0.13% to 96.99 [4] - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased 16.25% to 21456 kilograms, and COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.71% to 36785583 ounces [4] 4. Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe shipping quotes vary, with Maersk down 5.13% to 2978 dollars per FEU and CMA CGM up 11.40% to 4085 dollars per FEU [7] - **Container Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route) rose 9.61% to 2123.24, and SCFIS (US West route) fell 22.28% to 1619.19 [7] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2508 (main contract) fell 2.48% to 1849.9, and the basis (main contract) rose 33.21% to 822.2 [7] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged at 3266.65 million TEU, and Shanghai's port punctuality rate rose 46.45% to 42.50 [7] 5. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information - **Overseas Data**: Eurozone's comprehensive PMI rose 0.80% to 50.60, and the US manufacturing PMI index rose 1.03% to 49.00 [7][9] - **Domestic Data**: China's June foreign exchange reserves, iron ore shipments, and other data are to be released, and some data such as SMM electrolytic copper social inventory are expected to be updated [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by geopolitical tensions, U.S. monetary policy, and market sentiment, indicating a potential bullish trend in the long term despite short-term volatility [1][3][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On June 23, gold opened over $20 higher but later fell, reaching a low of $3347.10 before recovering slightly to close at $3368.96, reflecting a daily fluctuation of $48.78 [1][3]. - The price was initially supported by geopolitical tensions but faced resistance due to profit-taking and comments from President Trump regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Iran [1][3]. - The outlook for June 24 suggests continued volatility, with gold prices expected to test previous lows while being supported by a declining U.S. dollar index [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Central Bank Policies - Upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. current account and consumer confidence index, are anticipated to positively impact gold prices [5]. - The article highlights that the market's focus is shifting back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the economic impact of tariffs, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts later in the year [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of prices potentially exceeding $4000 in the next year due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases [6][7]. - The technical analysis indicates that gold prices are in a bullish trend, supported by moving averages, although there are concerns about a potential peak in the near term [9][11].

Group 1 - The gold TD market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a current price of 781.87 CNY per gram, showing a slight decline of 0.04% [1] - The highest price reached was 785.60 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 780.79 CNY per gram during the trading session [1] Group 2 - Analyst Enda Curran notes that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks do not appear particularly dovish, indicating satisfaction with the current economic conditions while being cautious about the impact of tariffs on inflation [2] - Analyst Roseanne Briggen highlights that traders initially expected a hawkish stance from the FOMC, but the outcome was contrary, with the Fed maintaining its position and indicating a potential 50 basis points cut in 2025 [2] - Powell acknowledges a gradual cooling in the labor market but emphasizes that the strong labor participation rate and good wage growth mitigate concerns, expressing a willingness to wait for more information before deciding on future actions [2] Group 3 - The current resistance level for gold T+D is identified in the range of 805-810 CNY per gram, while the support level is noted at 755-760 CNY per gram [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a continued decline in gold prices, with the latest trading data showing a drop of 0.40% to 780.47 CNY per gram, following a previous downward trend [1] - The trading day opened at 783.54 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 784.16 CNY and a low of 778.50 CNY, indicating volatility in the gold market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 0.9% month-on-month decline in retail and food service sales for May, exceeding market expectations of a 0.7% decrease, marking the largest single-month drop since March 2023 [2] - Core retail sales, excluding volatile items like automobiles and gasoline, fell by 0.3%, contrary to expectations of a 0.3% increase, reflecting weak consumer spending [2] - Factors contributing to the decline in retail data include falling gasoline prices and reduced spending on automobiles and home improvement items, while dining expenditures remained stable and spending on accommodation and air travel saw slight growth [2] - Data from U.S. banks indicated a year-on-year increase of 0.8% in household spending for May, but a month-on-month decline of 0.7%, suggesting pressure on consumer confidence and actual purchasing power [2] Group 3 - The current trading analysis for gold T+D indicates an upper resistance range of 805-810 CNY per gram and a lower support range of 755-760 CNY per gram [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the upcoming US CPI data, with gold prices experiencing fluctuations and adjustments while maintaining a bullish outlook for the year [1][4][9]. Market Performance - On June 10, gold opened at $3325.40 per ounce, reached a low of $3301.75, and later peaked at $3348.78 before closing at $3322.33, reflecting a daily fluctuation of $47.03 and a slight decline of 0.092% [1]. - The market sentiment is cautious, influenced by strong US non-farm payroll data, which has bolstered the dollar and pressured gold prices [4][8]. Economic Indicators - The US CPI data is anticipated to rise, which may reduce interest rate cut expectations, potentially leading to a temporary decline in gold prices. However, this could also enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [6][9]. - Current market conditions reflect a strong expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability close to 60% [9]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently in a bullish trend, supported by the upward trend line established since March, despite recent volatility [11][15]. - The monthly chart indicates that gold remains above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend, while the weekly chart shows potential support at the middle band [13][15]. Future Outlook - The overall outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations of reaching $3500 or higher within the year, despite short-term fluctuations [6][9][15]. - The market is advised to look for buying opportunities during pullbacks, as the long-term trend remains bullish [11][15].

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation is increasing demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a bullish outlook for gold prices, which have shown strong rebounds recently [1][3][8]. Market Performance - On May 20, gold prices opened at $3,230.66 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3,204.50, and then surged to a high of $3,295.52, closing at $3,289.70, marking a daily increase of $59.04 or 1.83% [1][3]. - The daily trading range was $91.02, indicating significant volatility and bullish momentum [1]. Geopolitical Influences - The announcement of new sanctions against Russia by the EU and the UK, along with tensions surrounding Iran, have heightened market concerns, driving up gold prices [3][8]. - Ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [8]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index has fallen below short-term moving averages, which may provide further support for gold prices [3][8]. - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating and IMF's forecast of slower U.S. economic growth compared to global growth are contributing to a decline in the dollar's attractiveness [8]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently above the 5-10 month moving averages and are showing signs of a potential upward trend, with a focus on the $2,900 to $3,500 range for future movements [10][12]. - The daily chart indicates a rebound from key support levels, suggesting a bullish outlook for the near term [12][13]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels include support at $3,275 or $3,255 and resistance at $3,330 or $3,350 for gold [12]. - For silver, support is noted at $32.90 or $32.75, with resistance at $33.35 or $33.70 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and trade risks, with prices currently stabilizing around key support levels while awaiting a stronger upward movement [1][4][9]. Price Movement - On May 19, gold opened at $3218 per ounce, reached a low of $3206.49, and a high of $3249.60, closing at $3230.09, marking a daily increase of $12.09 or 0.38% [1]. - Compared to the previous week's closing price of $3198.78, gold rose by $31.31, reflecting a 0.98% increase [2]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The market is influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions and President Trump's comments on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, alongside Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating, which has heightened market risk aversion [4][9]. - The potential for renewed negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has reduced immediate demand for gold as a safe haven, contributing to price volatility [4][9]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a strong resistance level, with the price remaining above the 5-10 month moving averages and a significant trendline support [6][11]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has not breached the 10-week moving average, suggesting a potential for a wide-ranging consolidation phase, with a focus on the $3100-$3440 range [13]. - The daily chart indicates that gold has rebounded from the ascending trendline and 60-day moving average support, with expectations for further upward movement as long as these support levels hold [15]. Market Outlook - The overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic for gold prices to strengthen in the future, despite the current lack of strong bullish catalysts [8][9]. - The market will continue to be influenced by trade agreements and geopolitical developments, with gold expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern [6][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical significance and investment potential of gold, emphasizing its unique properties that make it an ideal currency and investment asset. It highlights the factors driving gold prices and the various investment channels available for investors. Group 1: Drivers of Gold Price Increase - Over the long term, gold prices have risen from approximately $35 per ounce in the 1970s to $3,250 currently, an increase of nearly 100 times. Key events contributing to this rise include the decoupling of the dollar from gold in 1971, leading to a decade-long price increase, and the 2008 financial crisis, which prompted investors to buy gold as a hedge against currency devaluation and political instability [3]. - Central banks globally have increased their gold holdings to mitigate international risks, with the People's Bank of China adding 62.21 tons, 224.88 tons, 44.17 tons, and 12.75 tons of gold from 2022 to 2025 (as of March 2025) [3]. - National policies, such as the Financial Regulatory Administration's notice in February 2025 allowing insurance funds to invest in gold, have also supported the long-term development of the gold market [4]. Group 2: Investment Channels for Gold - Gold is a crucial component for long-term asset allocation, with various investment channels available. Traditional methods include purchasing physical gold, which offers psychological security but incurs high storage costs and transaction complexities [10]. - Alternatives like "paper gold" (RMB account gold) allow investors to hold electronic certificates without the risks associated with physical storage. Gold ETFs provide another non-physical investment option, tracking gold prices through holding spot or futures contracts [10]. - Other investment options include gold trading contracts (gold TD), futures, and options, which carry higher risks and are more suitable for short-term trading rather than long-term investment [11]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective on Gold - Gold's low correlation with stocks and bonds, along with its strong long-term inflation-hedging capabilities, makes it a valuable tool for constructing diversified investment portfolios and reducing volatility [12]. - Historical trends show that gold can experience prolonged cycles of price increases and decreases, exemplified by its peak in 1980 and subsequent decline until 2001. This characteristic underscores gold's suitability for long-term asset allocation [12].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are showing signs of stabilization and potential upward movement, with expectations of a rebound in the latter half of the week due to double bottom support and reduced bearish pressures [1][3][5]. Price Movements - On May 13, gold opened at $3236.61 per ounce, reached a low of $3215.88 and a high of $3265.11, closing at $3249.93, marking a daily increase of $13.32 or 0.41% [1]. - The price is expected to fluctuate within a range of $3440 to $3200 in the short term [8]. Market Influences - The decline in the U.S. April CPI to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, which supports gold prices [7]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar index and the call for rate cuts by Trump are contributing to the stabilization of gold prices [3][7]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a broad range of price fluctuations over the past two years, with bearish signals suggesting limited rebound strength [5][10]. - Weekly charts show a potential for gold to challenge the $3400 mark if it maintains above the $3290 support level [11]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns will continue to influence gold prices, with a potential for a peak-to-correction cycle in the latter half of the year [8]. - Historical patterns suggest that gold may either remain in a $2900 to $3400 range for three years or experience a new high followed by a five-year bear market [8].