张尧浠：金价遇阻获利了结、利好仍在回撤仍可看涨 上交易日周二(2月24日)：国际黄金遇阻回落收跌，受美元走强以及获利了结的影响，再加上多位美联储官员警告通胀依然过高，降息预期大幅降温，拖 累因避险情绪升温推动的金价涨幅，多头动力减弱，但近期走势模式为震荡上移，中东地缘政治紧张局势的反复升温，已成为近期黄金市场的重要推动 力。年内降息前景仍在，故此，行情遇阻回撤，在触及支撑位置也是入场做多的机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于5227.26美元/盎司，直接先行录得日内高点5249.43美元，便遇阻回撤并开始跳水100多美金，之后止跌回升，陷入5160-5186 美元区间震荡盘整，到美盘开盘，又再度跳水触及日内低点5094.07美元，最后触底回升，但受阻于日内区间压力，最终收于5143.70美元，日振幅155.36 美元，收跌83.56美元，跌幅1.6%。 展望今日周三(2月25日)：国际黄金开盘受到均线支撑买盘，有所止跌运行，同时，美元指数早盘反弹动力减缓，也对其产生一定支撑，故此，操作上，5 日或10日均线支撑位，也仍是继续做多入场的位置。 黄金TD=(国际黄金价格x汇率)/31.1035 国际黄金波动1美金， ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and a slight decline, influenced by mixed economic signals from the U.S. and comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts [1][5]. Price Movements - Gold opened at $5058.44 per ounce, fluctuated to a high of $5078.39, and closed at $5025.33, marking a daily decline of $33.11 or 0.65% [3][5]. - The trading range for the day was $91.11, indicating significant volatility [3]. Market Expectations - The market is anticipating the U.S. non-farm payroll data for January, with expectations leaning towards a figure higher than the previous value, which could negatively impact gold prices [5]. - Despite potential negative impacts from employment data, recent lower ADP and jobless claims data suggest that non-farm payrolls may come in below expectations, which could support gold prices [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis indicates that gold prices are maintaining a bullish outlook, having rebounded after touching support levels, suggesting a continuation of the new bull market [7]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold has returned above the 5-10 day moving averages, indicating a potential for further strength in the market [9]. - Daily charts reveal that while the upward momentum is weakening, gold remains above key support levels, indicating that bullish sentiment still prevails [9]. Support and Resistance Levels - For gold, key support levels are identified at $4970 and $4870, while resistance levels are at $5100 and $5170 [9]. - For silver, support is noted at $79.15 and $78.55, with resistance at $84.00 and $86.70 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a rebound after a significant drop, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment and suggesting that patience may be more important than immediate trading actions [1][3]. Price Movements - Gold prices opened the week at $4792.00 per ounce, hitting a low of $4402.14 before rebounding to a high of $5091.81 mid-week, ultimately closing at $4960.86, marking a weekly increase of $95.75 or 1.97% from the previous week's close of $4865.11 [1][3]. Market Influences - The market was influenced by previous selling pressure, easing geopolitical tensions, and the Federal Reserve's comments on potential interest rate cuts, which contributed to a stronger fundamental outlook for gold [3][5]. - Profit-taking and renewed geopolitical tensions led to fluctuations in gold prices, but underlying support from buying interest and inflation expectations helped gold to recover [3][5]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. retail sales and unemployment rates, are expected to be favorable for gold prices, reinforcing a bullish outlook despite potential volatility [5]. - Recent data showed a decline in job openings to 6.54 million and an increase in initial jobless claims to 231,000, indicating a cooling labor market that may support lower inflation and bolster market expectations for Fed rate cuts [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly and weekly charts indicate that gold prices remain above key support levels, suggesting a continued bullish trend, with a focus on maintaining above $4300 as a critical support level [7][8]. - Daily charts show a rebound in gold prices, although resistance at the 10-day moving average remains unbroken, indicating potential for further fluctuations [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4910 or $4800, while resistance levels are at $5100 or $5190 [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $77.70 or $74.70, with resistance at $83.10 or $86.10 [10].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have shown a strong rebound, returning above the midline, indicating increased bullish momentum, although further movement above the 5-day moving average is needed to enhance bullish prospects [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4667.81 per ounce, reached a low of $4665.67, and then rebounded to a high of $4992.95 before closing at $4935.80, marking a daily range of $327.28 and a gain of $267.99, or 5.74% [3]. - The recent price increase is attributed to buying pressure following a previous low, geopolitical tensions ahead of US-Iran talks, and indications from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts [3][5]. Market Outlook - On February 4, gold opened with weakened bullish momentum due to resistance from short-term moving averages and profit-taking, alongside reduced safe-haven demand following a government funding bill signed by Trump [3]. - Despite these factors, gold remains above key support levels, suggesting that the market may either consolidate or continue to strengthen, with a lower probability of further declines [3][5]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold has returned above the 30-day and midline averages but faces resistance at the 10-day moving average, necessitating a breakthrough for a stronger bullish trend [7]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4850 and $4760, while resistance levels are at $5050 and $5160 [7]. - The monthly chart shows that despite a recent drop, gold has rebounded from a previously established upward trend support, indicating the potential for a new bull market [7]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming data to watch includes the US ADP employment figures, S&P Global Services PMI, and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, with mixed market expectations [5]. - The recent factors contributing to price drops have subsided, leading to a more favorable outlook for gold prices, supported by indications from Federal Reserve officials about significant rate cut potential this year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has rebounded after hitting a support level, indicating a potential for stabilization and further upward movement in the future [1]. Price Movement - On February 2, gold opened at approximately $4825.84, reached a daily high of $4883.66, and then fell to a low of $4402.27 before closing at $4658.96, marking a daily fluctuation of $481.39 and a decline of $201.35 or 4.14% from the previous close of $4860.31 [3]. - The recent drop in gold prices was influenced by increased margin requirements from the CME and geopolitical developments, including trade agreements that reduced the demand for gold as a safe haven [3][5]. Market Outlook - The outlook for February 3 indicates that gold prices are expected to continue their recovery, supported by a weakening dollar index, although resistance remains at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and short-term moving averages [3][5]. - The fundamental factors that led to the recent drop in gold prices appear to have been exhausted, suggesting a potential for a rebound as geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns remain uncertain [5]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, despite the recent drop, gold prices have found support at the previous upward trend line, indicating the potential for a new bull market [7]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold prices have corrected after a previous rise, but the recent rebound suggests a return to strength if prices can maintain above short-term moving averages [7][9]. - Daily charts indicate that gold has rebounded from a key support level, but further upward movement is contingent on breaking through resistance levels [9]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4640 and $4560, while resistance levels are at $4900 and $5000 [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $78.00 and $75.20, with resistance at $87.50 and $94.00 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent comments by Trump have led to a significant drop in the US dollar index, reaching a near four-year low, which in turn has boosted gold prices, indicating a strong bullish outlook for gold in the near future [1][3]. Market Performance - On January 27, gold opened at $5012.88 per ounce, recorded a low of $5012.58, and then surged nearly $100 to a high of $5189.94, closing at $5180.86, marking a daily increase of $167.98 or 3.35% [3]. - The following day, January 28, gold prices showed signs of weakness due to profit-taking and a slight recovery in the dollar index, with expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, which limited bullish momentum [3]. Federal Reserve Impact - The upcoming press conference by Fed Chair Powell is expected to express hawkish views on pausing rate cuts, but this is unlikely to reverse the current bullish trend for gold, as multiple factors support gold prices, including geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainties [5]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with potential price targets of $5500 to $6000 in the short term and a bold prediction of reaching $10,000 by 2030 [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis shows that gold has rebounded strongly after touching trendline support in December, continuing to set new highs and moving outside the Bollinger Bands, indicating a bullish trend [7]. - Weekly performance indicates that gold remains strong, trading above the upper Bollinger Band, with any potential pullbacks seen as buying opportunities [8]. - Daily charts confirm a stable upward trend, with gold maintaining its position above the 5-day moving average, suggesting continued bullish momentum [9]. Price Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $5150 or $5110, while resistance levels are at $5222 or $5280 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, there are no risk - free inter - term arbitrage opportunities for domestic gold, silver, and platinum futures as their term spreads are all less than the term arbitrage costs. However, there is a certain degree of positive term arbitrage opportunity for palladium, as the spread between the PD2608 and PD2612 contracts is 6.5 yuan/gram, slightly larger than the 4 - month term arbitrage cost of 5.48 yuan/gram [4][12]. - There are no statistically significant term arbitrage opportunities for domestic gold futures as the term far - near ratios are all within the 80% confidence interval. For silver futures, since the term far - near ratios are mostly below the 95% confidence interval, investors interested can focus on the statistical term arbitrage strategy of shorting near - month contracts and longing far - month contracts [4][16]. - There are no risk - free spot - futures arbitrage opportunities for domestic gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures as the spot - futures spreads are all less than the positive or negative spot - futures arbitrage costs. The spot - futures ratio of gold futures is within the 80% confidence interval, while that of silver futures is below the 95% confidence interval. Investors interested can focus on the term arbitrage opportunity of shorting silver TD and longing silver futures [4][23]. - From a statistical perspective, investors interested can focus on the cross - variety arbitrage opportunities of longing London platinum and shorting London silver, longing London gold and shorting London silver, and longing London palladium and shorting London silver. Also, considering the Shanghai gold - silver ratio has reached a historical low and is far below the 95% confidence interval, investors can focus on the cross - variety arbitrage opportunity of longing Shanghai gold and shorting Shanghai silver [4][29][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Inter - term Arbitrage - Inter - term arbitrage involves simultaneously going long on a certain month's contract of a futures variety and going short on a different month's contract of the same futures variety. Positive inter - term arbitrage may obtain risk - free returns through warehouse receipt delivery, and enterprises with long - term inventory can reduce inventory costs through reverse inter - term arbitrage. However, reverse inter - term arbitrage without a spot basis and all inter - term arbitrage based purely on statistical analysis are risky [6]. - The main factors affecting the positive inter - term arbitrage cost of gold are the capital cost, which fluctuates with the gold price and market interest rate. For silver, the main factor is also the capital cost, and the trading fee also accounts for a certain proportion. Similar situations apply to platinum and palladium [8][9][11]. - Currently, there are no risk - free inter - term arbitrage opportunities for domestic gold, silver, and platinum futures, but there is a positive term arbitrage opportunity for palladium [4][12]. - For gold and silver, the far - near ratios are used for statistical analysis. Currently, there are no statistically significant term arbitrage opportunities for gold, while for silver, investors can focus on the strategy of shorting near - month contracts and longing far - month contracts [13][16]. 3.2 Precious Metal Spot - Futures Arbitrage - Both positive and negative spot - futures arbitrage can be carried out for gold and silver. For platinum and palladium, only positive spot - futures arbitrage can be considered due to the inability to short - sell in the spot market [18][20]. - The main factor affecting the positive spot - futures arbitrage cost of precious metals is the capital cost, while for negative spot - futures arbitrage, in addition to the capital cost, the deferred compensation fee also has a significant impact [18][19][21]. - Currently, there are no risk - free spot - futures arbitrage opportunities for domestic gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures. Investors can focus on the term arbitrage opportunity of shorting silver TD and longing silver futures [4][23]. 3.3 Precious Metal Cross - variety Arbitrage - The fundamental basis of cross - variety arbitrage is the inter - connection between different precious metal varieties in supply or demand, which makes the price spreads/ratios fluctuate within a certain range, providing arbitrage opportunities [24]. - For London precious metals, currently, the gold - silver ratio is below the 90% confidence interval but within the 95% confidence interval, and investors can focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities such as longing platinum, gold, or palladium and shorting silver. For Shanghai precious metals, the gold - silver ratio has reached a historical low and is far below the 95% confidence interval, so investors can focus on the cross - variety arbitrage opportunity of longing Shanghai gold and shorting Shanghai silver [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation is intensifying, leading to a surge in gold prices, which have broken through resistance levels, indicating increased bullish momentum and potential for further upward movement towards the $5000 target or higher [1][5]. Price Movement - On January 20, gold opened at $4668.63 per ounce, dipped to a low of $4659.45, then rebounded to break the $4700 mark, reaching a high of $4766.01 before closing at $4763.23, marking a daily increase of $94.6 or 2.03% [3]. - The following day, January 21, gold continued its bullish trend, with expectations of further gains despite a slight recovery in the dollar index [3]. Market Expectations - Upcoming data releases, such as the U.S. December pending home sales index and October construction spending, are anticipated to be favorable for gold prices, supporting a bullish outlook [5]. - Market consensus suggests at least two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2023, which is expected to weaken the dollar and drive more investment into gold [5]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and renewed trade war concerns are contributing to heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the metal [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold is maintaining strength above trendline resistance, with potential for a bull market that could see prices rise by over 30% this year, targeting the $5500-$6000 range [7]. - Weekly charts show consistent rebounds supported by moving averages, suggesting continued upward momentum and potential to reach the $4800 mark or higher in the near term [7]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4725 and $4670, while resistance levels are noted at $4800 and $4860 [9]. - For silver, support is at $93.40 and $91.30, with resistance at $96.00 and $97.80 [9].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a high-level fluctuation, with a short-term expectation of adjustment and decline, but the bullish outlook remains unchanged [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4629.55 per ounce, reached a high of $4632.20, and a low of $4581.25, closing at $4615.70, with a daily fluctuation of $50.95 and a decline of $13.85, or 0.3% [3]. - The market was influenced by a pullback pressure from the previous day's trading and reduced safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding Iran [3]. - The unexpected decrease in initial jobless claims strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would remain inactive for several months, further limiting bullish momentum for gold [3]. Future Outlook - On January 16, gold is expected to face downward pressure due to resistance from previous trading sessions and overall negative data expectations, but the long-term bullish outlook remains intact [3][5]. - Key upcoming data includes the U.S. December industrial production month-on-month rate and the January NAHB housing market index, with mixed market expectations [5][6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis indicates that gold prices are strong, recovering from previous declines and potentially opening a new bull market with a target range of $5500 to $6000 if the upward momentum continues [8]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold has regained previous losses and is expected to continue rising towards the $4700 mark in the coming weeks [8]. - Daily analysis suggests a potential adjustment towards the 10-day moving average around $4545 and the middle band at $4475, with bullish entry opportunities if these support levels are reached [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - For gold, key support levels are at $4580 or $4555, while resistance levels are at $4635 or $4650 [10]. - For silver, support levels are at $89.15 or $87.30, with resistance at $93.00 or $94.10 [11].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices showed a recovery after hitting a low, indicating potential for further strength despite short-term fluctuations [1][3][5]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4459.68 per ounce, fluctuated to a low of $4407.55, and closed at $4477.11, with a daily range of $71.65 and a gain of $17.43, or 0.39% [1]. - The market experienced pressure from increased margin requirements for precious metals futures and better-than-expected initial data, but support buying helped gold recover [3]. Market Outlook - The outlook remains bullish with a target of $5000 or higher, despite potential short-term pressures from upcoming employment data and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing [5][6]. - Geopolitical risks and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to support a bullish sentiment [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly and weekly charts indicate a strong upward trend, with potential for over 30% gains if the price maintains above key support levels [8][9]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4445 and $4420, while resistance levels are at $4500 and $4525 [10]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the gold market remains positive, with expectations of further price increases driven by geopolitical factors and monetary policy [6][8].