张尧浠：非农及指数调整来袭、金价多头风险与机会并存 上交易日周四(1月8日)：国际黄金触底回升垂线收阳，仍处于中轨及短期均线之上，显示仍有再度走强的前景，但日内周期处于调整走盘，短期或陷入震 荡波动，但那方向仍看好继续刷新高点的观点不变。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4459.68美元/盎司，先行偏强运行后转回落走低，延续到亚盘尾及美盘初处于持续震荡行情，并在欧盘尾录得日内低点 4407.55美元，最终触底回升，并到美盘尾再度拉升刷新日高点录得4479.20美元，并持稳收于4477.11美元，日振幅71.65美元，收涨17.43美元，涨幅 0.39%。 影响上，日内受到周三遇阻回落压力，以及芝商所近期第三次上调贵金属期货保证金，以及美盘初数据好于预期等利空压力，打压金价持续走低，但由于 支撑买盘推动，以及周初请数据仍高于前值，美国10月批发销售月率疲软利好，再加上美联储理事呼吁今年降息150个基点，美国大使馆警告：未来几天 乌克兰或遭受一次大规模空袭等，金价触底回升转强收阳。 展望今日周五(1月9日)：国际黄金开盘先行窄幅偏弱波动，受到连续走强的美元指数，以及市场对于非农就业数据预期利空的忧虑，还有本周将启动的 ...

张尧浠：避险需求持续推动、金价日内先空后多 上交易日周二(1月6日)：国际黄金继续反弹收涨，稳于中轨及短期均线之上，多头继续占据优势，也令后市有继续走强刷新历史新高的预期。虽有高空缺 口待回补，但参考2024年4月高开的缺口仍然存在，故此周内如回补不了，后市就难以或不会回补，故此，在跌回4400美元下方前，仍保持看涨预期不 变。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4448.62美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4427.94美元，之后一路震荡回升，延续到盘尾时段录得日内高点4497.21美元，最终 持稳收于4494.53美元，日振幅69.27美元，收涨45.91美元，涨幅1.03%。 影响上，受到重回短期均线上方的跟进买盘支撑，以及地缘政治紧张局势引发的强劲避险需求，特朗普政府谋划获取格陵兰岛等，再加上美联储米兰呼吁 今年降息超100基点，增强降息前景等等，继续助力金价走强。 基本面上，本周因美国对委内瑞拉的军事行动引发了广泛的避险情绪，投资者对全球不确定性的担忧大幅增加，推动资金大量流入贵金属市场。综合来 看，随着委内瑞拉和格陵兰岛事件的发酵，再加上美联储潜在降息的支撑，黄金价格仍有望继续挑战新高。任何的回撤调整都是入场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has shown strong upward momentum due to the geopolitical situation in Venezuela, reaching a high of $4,455.48 and closing at $4,448.83, marking a significant increase of 2.78% from the previous close of $4,328.35 [1][3][5] Price Movement - Gold opened at $4,346.46 per ounce, recorded a low of $4,344.06, and then rebounded to a high of $4,455.48 during the day, ultimately closing at $4,448.83 with a daily range of $111.42 [3][5] - The market is currently observing a potential pullback due to profit-taking and anticipation of key economic data releases, such as the non-farm payroll report [3][5] Market Outlook - If geopolitical tensions escalate or if U.S. economic data strengthens expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, gold prices may challenge historical highs again [3][5] - The market anticipates at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026, which could provide further support for gold prices [5] Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices have shown a significant pullback, indicating potential risks of a larger correction towards the $4,000-$3,900 range [7] - However, if the current momentum continues, there is potential for gold to reach $5,500-$6,000 [7] - Weekly analysis suggests that while there may be a pullback towards the 10-week moving average at $4,230, the overall trend remains bullish, providing opportunities for re-entry into long positions [7][9] Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,410 and $4,380, while resistance levels are at $4,480 and $4,500 [9] - For silver, support is noted at $75.10 and $74.10, with resistance at $78.00 and $79.30 [9]

张尧浠：新年先预温蓄力，金价偏筑底调整前景仍看涨 因周四元旦休市，直接回顾周三(2025年12月31日)行情，其走势震荡收跌，再度受到年尾的获利了结调整压力，芝商所一周内第二次再次上调贵金属期货 保证金，加上美国至12月27日当周初请失业金人数录得19.9万人，不及预期，为11月29日当周以来新低等等继续打压金价走低。 技术上，月线级别，金价12月虽再度强势攀升，但在月尾明显回撤，收在趋势线阻力下方，并形成倒垂看空形态，这暗示后市有再度展开较大回调，回踩 4000-3900美元区域或更低位置的风险； 走势自亚市开于4338.29美元，最高触及4372.93美元，最低触及4274.54美元，最终收于4314.72美元，日振幅98.39美元，收跌23.57美元，跌幅0.54%。 波幅再度加大，但其形态上，有再度收取止跌看涨的形态，对于后市来讲，黄金也有重新转看反弹的预期，但周图走势偏弱，也需留意再度的跳水行情， 因而在重回4400美元上方收线前，或者是回落止跌并显示ZZ指标触底前，都先保持震荡调整为主。 展望新的一年新的一天(2026年1月1日)：国际黄金跳空高开近13美金至4327.46美元，并随即反弹走强，受 ...

2025 年 12 月的贵金属市场，彻底被 "暴涨" 点燃。12 月 24 日，现货黄金盘中冲上 4511.93 美元 / 盎司，首次突破 4500 美元关口，年内累计涨幅超 1880 美 元，涨幅近 70%；白银也不甘示弱，现货白银触及 71.87 美元 / 盎司历史新高，年内涨幅更是逼近 140%。 国内市场同样沸腾，周大福、老凤祥等品牌足金饰品价集体突破 1400 元 / 克，12 月 24 日周生生足金饰品价再涨 8 元至 1411 元 / 克；就连更贴近原料价的 金条，银行售价也超 1020 元 / 克，水贝黄金原料价达 1163 元 / 克。有人晒出 "年初 20 克金条，如今账面多赚 1 万" 的收益，也有人纠结 "现在买会不会接 盘"，黄金到底还能不能入手？看完这几点再做决定。 | 品牌 | 智能 | 今日份提 | 品类 | 今日份格 | 报价时间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 水贝黄金 | 黄金价格 | 1163元/克 | 铝金价格 | 526元/克 | 2025-12-23 | | 周大福 | 育金价格 | 1403元/克 | 铝金价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming year has increased, contributing to a bullish outlook for gold prices [1][4]. Market Performance - On December 18, gold opened at $4,337.99 per ounce, fluctuated throughout the day, reaching a low of $4,308.66 and a high of $4,374.14, ultimately closing at $4,332.42, down $5.57 or 0.13% [3]. - The price movements were influenced by a stronger US dollar and the release of lower-than-expected US CPI data, which raised expectations for interest rate cuts [3][4]. Future Outlook - For December 19, gold is expected to continue weakly due to recent adjustment pressures and a recovering dollar index, but it remains in an upward trend [4]. - Key support levels to watch are around $4,320 and $4,300, while resistance levels are at $4,360 and $4,380 [11]. Long-term Projections - Over the next year, gold prices are projected to trend upwards, with a target of $5,000, supported by factors such as a softening job market and ongoing geopolitical tensions [6][8]. - The technical analysis indicates that while gold has faced resistance near historical highs, the likelihood of breaking through these levels remains strong [10].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a rebound, indicating a strengthened bullish sentiment and potential for further upward movement, with targets set at $4,380 or higher [1][5]. Price Movement Summary - On December 11, gold opened at $4,224.45 per ounce, reached a high of $4,285.66, and closed at $4,279.56, marking a daily increase of $55.11 or 1.3% [1]. - The daily trading range was $81.35, with a low of $4,204.31 [1]. Influencing Factors - The increase in gold prices is supported by buying pressure and a significant rise in initial jobless claims in the U.S., which marked the largest weekly increase since the pandemic [3]. - The continued decline of the U.S. dollar index has also contributed to the strengthening of gold prices, alongside robust demand for silver [3]. Market Outlook - On December 12, gold opened weakly due to profit-taking but still showed bullish demand, with expectations of a continued decline in the dollar index [3]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including the November non-farm payrolls and CPI, are anticipated to influence gold prices positively or maintain high volatility [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a strong rebound in November, dispelling bearish patterns and enhancing the outlook for new highs [7]. - Weekly charts show that gold is maintaining momentum above the 5-10 week moving averages, suggesting a bullish trend [7]. - Daily charts indicate that gold has broken through recent resistance levels, with expectations to target $4,320 and $4,380 in the near term [9]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,260 and $4,245, while resistance levels are at $4,310 and $4,340 [9]. - For silver, support is noted at $62.50 and $61.65, with resistance at $64.30 and $64.90 [9].

张尧浠：美降息落地仍存宽松前景、金价反弹多头动力加强 上交易日周三(12月10日)：国际黄金触底回升收阳，再度收线在短期均线上方，多头力量加强，暗示后市仍有继续反弹的动力，再度上探4260美元附近阻 力。突破则有望触及4340美元或更高位置。反之继续遇阻则有维持当下的震荡区间波动继续调整走盘。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4207.69美元/盎司，先行盘整后转回落，到欧盘及美盘大部分时段，又处于4188-4205美元区间内震荡，一直到凌晨3点时段 开盘，金价走低触及日内低点4181.85美元，迅速反弹回升收复日内跌幅，录得日内高点4238.49美元，最终有所回撤，收于4228.35美元，日振幅56.64美 元，收涨20.66美元，涨幅0.49%。 影响上，日内在美联储利率决议公布前延续近日的震荡区间表现观望，一直到周四凌晨，美联储如期降息25个基点，虽然一度卖事实走低录得日内低点； 但由于又表示会在未来30天内购买400亿美元短债(变相放水)，以及鲍威尔虽未就近期是否再次降息提供明确指引，但表示"不包含未来加息"情景，被市 场解读为存在明年1月进一步降息的可能；再加上特朗普批评鲍威尔：降息幅度太小，可以翻倍，应 ...

Core Viewpoint - The short-term outlook for gold prices remains weak, but the long-term bullish perspective is unchanged, with a target of reaching $5000 per ounce in the future [6]. Price Movement - On December 8, gold opened at $4196.40 per ounce, peaked at $4218.74, and then fell to a low of $4176.27, closing at $4190.49, marking a daily decline of $5.91 or 0.14% [3]. - The price is expected to remain within a consolidation range until the Federal Reserve's decision is announced, with short-term trading strategies focusing on fluctuations [5]. Economic Indicators - Attention is drawn to the upcoming U.S. NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and JOLTs job openings data, which are anticipated to be favorable for gold prices [5]. Federal Reserve Policy - Despite expectations of a hawkish rate cut from the Federal Reserve, there are signals of caution regarding future easing policies, which may limit bullish momentum for gold in the short term [6]. - Historically, short-term pullbacks during rate cut cycles have presented buying opportunities for gold, supported by central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risk factors [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a strong rebound in November, dispelling bearish outlooks, but December's momentum appears weaker, requiring a breakout above $4400 to sustain upward movement [8]. - Weekly indicators show diminishing bullish momentum, yet the main trend remains above key moving averages, suggesting potential for further gains [8]. - Daily analysis indicates a current consolidation phase, with expectations of support around $4155 and $4111, while resistance is noted at $4210 and $4228 [10]. Silver Outlook - For silver, support levels are identified at $57.65 and $57.05, with resistance at $58.60 and $59.00 [11].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a period of fluctuation and adjustment in the short term due to mixed signals from the non-farm employment data and ongoing hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials [1][5][6]. Market Performance - On November 20, gold opened at $4077.91 per ounce, reached a high of $4109.92, and then fell to a low of $4038.65 before closing at $4077.22, with a daily fluctuation of $71.27 [3]. - The market anticipates mixed economic data releases, including the U.S. November PMI and consumer confidence index, which may continue to influence gold prices [3]. Economic Indicators - The strong performance of the September non-farm employment data and the Federal Reserve officials' reluctance to rush into rate cuts have reduced the likelihood of a December rate cut, but this could also be seen as a temporary alleviation of negative factors for gold prices [5]. - Long-term, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue easing policies, indicating that the rate cut cycle remains in play, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases [6]. Technical Analysis - On a weekly basis, gold prices are currently supported by the 10-week moving average, suggesting potential for future strength if this support holds [8]. - The daily chart indicates that gold is in a triangular consolidation pattern, with key resistance at $4230 and support at $3930, guiding trading strategies [9]. Price Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4050 and $4030, while resistance levels are at $4105 and $4130 [10].