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战术定力减弱中,战略定力择机中
鲁明量化全视角· 2025-05-05 02:12
Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a reduction in tactical discipline while strategic discipline is being selectively applied, with a recommendation for low positions in both the main board and small-cap sectors [1][2]. Market Performance - Last week, the market saw a slight decline, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.43%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.49%, and the CSI 500 index up by 0.08 [2]. - The stabilization forces in the market are beginning to weaken, and while small-cap sectors showed some strength in Q1 earnings, their sustainability remains in question [2]. Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is facing the first wave of impact from the tariff war, with Q1 earnings reports showing a lack of significant improvement, particularly in the banking sector, which underperformed market expectations [2]. - The April official PMI data indicates a significant weakening trend, supporting the view that the Chinese economy will confront challenges from the tariff war [2]. - In the U.S., despite stable monthly employment data, leading indicators suggest a decline starting in May, and the recently disclosed Q1 GDP turned negative, indicating an impending recession [2]. Technical Analysis - Tactical discipline is beginning to weaken, as evidenced by the reversal in the banking sector's trend following the April Politburo meeting and Q1 earnings reports [3]. - The overall technical outlook remains cautious, with institutional funds continuing to flow out of small-cap sectors [3]. - The A-share Q1 earnings, while relatively stable, are viewed as a small rebound within a mid-term downward trend, necessitating defensive positioning ahead of potential economic shocks [3]. Investment Strategy - For the main board, the recommendation is to maintain low positions as the positive impacts of Q1 economic data and earnings have already materialized, while the second quarter's tariff war effects are still unfolding [3]. - For small-cap sectors, despite better Q1 earnings compared to the main board, concerns about the sustainability of the recovery remain significant, thus low positions are advised [3]. - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on industries such as automotive and home appliances [3].