关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 深度专题 1、深度专题 | 2026年：财政货币政策展望 热点思考 1、热点思考 | 日本宽财政，市场忽视了什么？ 高频跟踪 1、数据点评 | PMI修复的"短期掣肘"？ 2、海外高频 | 美国9月零售弱于预期，黄金白银大幅上涨 电话会议 1、"周见系列" 第59期: 《2026年财政收支展望》 2、"洞见系列" 第103期: 《日本资财政，市场然视了什么?》 第104期: 《2026年:财政货市政策展望》 3、"速见系列" 第14期: 《每周热点》 第15期: 《每周热点》 深度专题 1 深度专题 | 2026年：财政货币政策展望 点击看全文 深度专题 2025.12.2 "十五五"开局之年，财政货币政策预计强化协同、优化结构、深化改革。 热点思考 1 热点思考 | 日本宽财政，市场忽视了什么？ 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.12.1 "宽财政+紧货币"组合可能触发套息交易反转，需警惕美日货币政策的分化与转向。 11 . 2 9 - 1 2 . 5 周度研究成果 高 频 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 11 . 2 9 - 1 2 . 5 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 深度专题 1、深度专题 | 2026年：财政货币政策展望 热点思考 1、热点思考 | 日本宽财政，市场忽视了什么？ 高频跟踪 1、数据点评 | PMI修复的"短期掣肘"？ 2、海外高频 | 美国9月零售弱于预期，黄金白银大幅上涨 电话会议 1、"周见系列" 第59期: 《2026年财政收支展望》 2、"洞见系列" 第103期: 《日本资财政，市场然视了什么?》 第104期: 《2026年:财政货市政策展望》 3、"速见系列" 第14期: 《每周热点》 第15期: 《每周热点》 深度专题 1 深度专题 | 2026年：财政货币政策展望 点击看全文 深度专题 2025.12.2 "十五五"开局之年，财政货币政策预计强化协同、优化结构、深化改革。 热点思考 1 热点思考 | 日本宽财政，市场忽视了什么？ 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.12.1 "宽财政+紧货币"组合可能触发套息交易反转，需警惕美日货币政策的分化与转向。 制造业 ...

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3898 | -0.42 | -1.44 | 0.72 | | 深证综指 | 2462 | -0.67 | -1.89 | 1.54 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | -0.41 | -1.66 | 19.06 | | 中盘指数 | -1.01 | -4.21 | 25.79 | | 小盘指数 | -1.03 | -2.6 | 22.37 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 房地产服务 | 2.1 | 3.91 | 6.31 | | 医药商业Ⅱ | 1.83 | 4.17 | 5.62 | | 焦炭Ⅱ | 1.67 | 3.35 | 35.03 | | 酒店餐饮 | 1.39 | 12.14 | 11.67 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the "14th Five-Year Plan" period presents multiple opportunities for China's economic growth, emphasizing the need to build a modern industrial system and activate diverse growth drivers to enhance potential growth levels [1][3]. - Experts highlight that technological innovation and deep urbanization will significantly contribute to future economic growth, with emerging companies like DeepSeek expected to proliferate and drive this growth [3]. - Structural reforms and the release of demographic quality dividends are also identified as potential growth points for the economy [3]. Group 2 - The implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and proactive investment strategies are anticipated to inject lasting momentum into economic growth, supported by more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [4][6]. - Recent macroeconomic policy adjustments have shown positive effects, including accelerated asset price restructuring and continuous improvement in corporate balance sheets, contributing to a gradual recovery in core CPI and the expansion of A-share asset scale [6][7]. - There is ample room for further monetary and fiscal policy adjustments, with the possibility of continued monetary easing in 2026 and an optimized local government balance sheet structure enhancing fiscal policy effectiveness [7]. Group 3 - To stimulate consumption, it is crucial to address the low structural proportion of terminal consumption, with policy funds directed towards breaking through this issue [9]. - Recommendations include increasing income for low- and middle-income groups and fostering developmental consumption through various fiscal measures, such as reallocating state-owned equity capital to social security funds [10]. - The development of the capital market is emphasized as a key focus during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with attention to integrating investment and financing, enhancing derivative markets, and improving the management of listed companies' market value [10].

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period presents multiple opportunities for China's economic growth, driven by deep urbanization, frontier innovation, and the construction of a modern industrial system [1][2] - Experts emphasize the importance of activating diverse growth drivers and enhancing potential growth levels through structural reforms and technological advancements [2][4] Economic Growth Opportunities - The construction of a modern industrial system, strong domestic market, regional coordinated development, and technological innovation are expected to create significant investment scales during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The emergence of new enterprises, exemplified by DeepSeek, is anticipated to contribute to future growth [2] Policy Support - There is ample room for fiscal and monetary policy adjustments, with a focus on addressing fundamental issues to boost terminal demand [5][6] - The combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies is expected to effectively support economic recovery [2][5] Consumption and Demand - Expanding consumption should focus on addressing the low structural proportion of terminal consumption, with policy funds directed towards increasing income for middle and low-income groups [6] - The development of a consumption powerhouse requires attention to both increasing imports and enhancing service consumption [6] Capital Market Development - The development of the capital market is highlighted as a key focus during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with recommendations to integrate investment and financing, enhance derivative markets, and improve the management of listed companies [7]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period presents multiple opportunities for China's economic growth, driven by deep urbanization, frontier innovation, and the construction of a modern industrial system [1][2] - Experts emphasize the importance of activating diverse growth drivers and enhancing potential growth levels through structural reforms and technological advancements [2][4] Group 1: Economic Growth Opportunities - The construction of a modern industrial system, strong domestic market, and technological innovation are expected to create significant investment scales during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, which will boost economic growth in 2026 [3] - The emergence of new enterprises, exemplified by DeepSeek, is anticipated to lead future growth, alongside deep urbanization and consumption upgrades [2][3] Group 2: Policy Support and Financial Environment - There is ample room for fiscal and monetary policy adjustments, with a focus on addressing fundamental issues to enhance terminal demand [5][6] - Recent macroeconomic policy adjustments have shown positive effects, including asset price recovery and improved corporate balance sheets, indicating a supportive environment for growth [4][5] Group 3: Consumer Demand and Structural Reforms - Expanding consumption requires addressing the low structural proportion of terminal consumption, with policy funds directed towards increasing income for low- and middle-income groups [6] - Recommendations include reallocating state-owned equity capital to social security funds and enhancing rural residents' property income through unified land management [6] Group 4: Capital Market Development - Developing the capital market is highlighted as a key focus for the "14th Five-Year Plan," with emphasis on integrating investment and financing, enhancing derivative markets, and improving listed companies' value management [7]

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period presents multiple opportunities for China's economic growth, driven by deep urbanization, frontier innovation, and the construction of a modern industrial system [1][2] - Experts emphasize the importance of activating diverse growth drivers and enhancing potential growth levels through structural reforms and the release of demographic dividends [1][2] - The implementation of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies will effectively support economic recovery and growth [2][3] Group 2 - The construction of a modern industrial system, strong domestic market, regional coordinated development, and technological innovation are expected to generate considerable investment scale during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2] - The accumulation of positive factors, such as asset price restructuring and corporate balance sheet recovery, is accelerating, indicating a favorable economic outlook [2][3] - There is significant room for further monetary policy easing, as the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained stable for six months, and fiscal policies are being optimized to expand the scope for action [3] Group 3 - Expanding consumption should focus on addressing the structural issues of low terminal consumption ratios, with policy funds directed towards increasing income for low- and middle-income groups [3] - The development of a consumption-driven economy requires attention to both increasing imports and fostering service consumption, particularly developmental consumption [3] - The development of capital markets is highlighted as a key focus for the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the integration of investment and financing, and enhancing the management of listed companies [4]

Group 1: Economic Data Overview - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a new low in growth rate over the past 13 months, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Fixed asset investment in October fell by 12.2% year-on-year, with the decline deepening by 5.1 percentage points compared to September[3] - The real estate market continues to weaken, with residential sales area, new construction area, and completed area down by 19.6%, 29.9%, and 31.4% year-on-year, respectively[3] Group 2: Credit and Financing Trends - New loans in October amounted to 220 billion, a decrease of 280 billion year-on-year, with household loans net repayment reaching 360.4 billion, a drop of 520.4 billion year-on-year[4] - The total social financing in October was 814.9 billion, down 597.1 billion year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of decline[4] - M2 money supply growth fell by 0.2 percentage points to 8.2% year-on-year, while M1 decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 6.2%[4] Group 3: Investment and Manufacturing Insights - Manufacturing investment saw a year-on-year decline of 7.9%, with a significant reduction in low-efficiency capacity investments due to "anti-involution" policies[3] - Industrial added value growth fell by 1.6 percentage points to 4.9% year-on-year, with mining and manufacturing sectors also experiencing declines[3] - The construction sector's investment dropped significantly, with broad infrastructure investment down by 9.7% year-on-year[3] Group 4: Policy and Future Outlook - The current economic data indicates a need for increased policy stimulus to boost domestic demand, particularly in real estate and consumer sectors[4] - The central government may need to plan for increased fiscal spending to stimulate consumption and effective investment in early next year[4] - Monetary policy may focus on easing measures to support consumer spending, with potential credit relief policies anticipated to have a marginal positive effect on the real estate market[4]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in October has shown a decline, likely due to the long holiday and price pressures from upstream industries [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The production, demand, and price indicators have all experienced a certain degree of decline, reflecting the impact of the holiday on supply constraints and demand slowdown [1] - The PMI for specific sub-sectors within manufacturing did not show a broad-based decline, with only a few industries experiencing significant drops due to the influence of anti-involution [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI has narrowed its gap compared to historical levels, primarily due to the long holiday improving the service sector's performance [1] Group 3: Overall Economic Outlook - Overall, the combined manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors indicate a stable economic performance in October, with expectations for achieving annual growth targets as fiscal and monetary policies are implemented in the fourth quarter [1]

Core Insights - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food rose by 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the 49th consecutive month of increase [1] - The primary driver of the price increase was the accelerated rise in energy prices, with electricity and gas prices turning from declines of 7% and 5% respectively in the previous month to increases of 3.2% and 2.2% [1] - The price increases for food and durable consumer goods have moderated compared to last year, but the price of ordinary japonica rice surged by 48.6%, while chocolate and coffee bean prices rose by 50.9% and 64.1% respectively [1] - Hotel accommodation fees increased by 5.8% year-on-year, influenced by rising demand for inbound tourism [1] - Experts believe that the new government's potential implementation of more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies may lead to a depreciation of the yen, further exacerbating inflationary pressures in Japan [1]