Group 1 - The core idea of the articles revolves around the geopolitical and economic strategies of the US and China, emphasizing the importance of technology and leverage in their future growth [1][2][3] - The US is expected to rely heavily on technology and leverage after 2025, moving away from previous population growth strategies [2][3] - Both the US and China share similar goals regarding technological advancement, but their approaches and levels of commitment differ due to various factors [5][6] Group 2 - The competition between the US and China is characterized by a shared strategic framework, which is a notable aspect of the current geopolitical landscape [4][7] - The EU's foreign policy is complicated by its relationship with NATO, leading to mixed signals and a lack of a unified stance on security matters [9][10] - Eastern European countries tend to favor US involvement over European solutions due to historical experiences, which complicates the EU's diplomatic efforts [11][12] Group 3 - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has highlighted the differing perspectives within the EU regarding security and foreign policy, leading to hesitations and inconsistencies [17][18] - The EU's future is uncertain, as it faces challenges in population growth, technological advancement, and maintaining fiscal discipline in a competitive global environment [18][20] - The historical context of US-Soviet relations influences current US strategies, while China's unique development path presents its own set of challenges [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The anticipation for the official announcement of the "new type of policy financial tools" is building, with local governments already conducting policy interpretation and project application meetings, indicating that the official announcement is imminent [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Financial Tools Overview - Local governments in 12 provinces, including Shandong, Hunan, and Hubei, have held meetings to discuss the new policy financial tools, aiming to seize opportunities in the upcoming policy framework [1]. - In 2022, three policy financial institutions created and deployed approximately 740 billion yuan (about 740 billion) in policy and development financial tools to support major project capital and bridge funding for special bond projects [1]. - The new tools are expected to be officially launched in the second quarter of 2023, as indicated by market research institutions [1]. Group 2: Support and Funding Mechanisms - The new tools are designed to address funding gaps in key areas such as new urbanization, agriculture, artificial intelligence, digital economy, and consumer infrastructure [3]. - Historical experience suggests that fiscal and monetary policies will provide necessary support for the new tools, with a focus on using monetary policy to supplement fiscal efforts, particularly through mechanisms like the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) [2]. - Local governments are actively planning and reserving projects to maximize the benefits of the new tools, emphasizing the importance of leveraging social capital and expanding effective investment [4]. Group 3: Project Focus and Implementation - Specific areas of focus for project applications include industrial development, cultural tourism, agriculture, and urban construction, with local governments identifying priority projects in these sectors [3]. - The three main policy financial institutions involved in the new tools—China Development Bank, Agricultural Development Bank, and China Export-Import Bank—are actively participating in policy interpretation sessions to clarify eligibility and operational models [3]. - Local governments are urged to take advantage of the project application window to implement high-quality projects that translate policy potential into tangible development outcomes [4].

Group 1 - The market experienced a rebound last week, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.00%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.92%, and the CSI 500 index by 1.60% [2] - A joint meeting of multiple ministries announced a new round of fiscal and monetary policies aimed at supporting the economy and the stock market, but the impact is expected to be less than last year's measures [3][4] - The recent import and export data revealed significant shocks, with exports showing a notable decline and imports experiencing an unusual surge, potentially indicating a "importing through Hong Kong" behavior [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that a right-side sell signal has been confirmed, with institutional funds continuing to flow out despite the market's rebound [4] - The overall economic impact is evident, and while policies have been implemented, their effectiveness remains uncertain, leading to a recommendation for low positions in the main board to mitigate risks [4] - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the banking sector as a potential area of interest [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a reduction in tactical discipline while strategic discipline is being selectively applied, with a recommendation for low positions in both the main board and small-cap sectors [1][2]. Market Performance - Last week, the market saw a slight decline, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.43%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.49%, and the CSI 500 index up by 0.08 [2]. - The stabilization forces in the market are beginning to weaken, and while small-cap sectors showed some strength in Q1 earnings, their sustainability remains in question [2]. Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is facing the first wave of impact from the tariff war, with Q1 earnings reports showing a lack of significant improvement, particularly in the banking sector, which underperformed market expectations [2]. - The April official PMI data indicates a significant weakening trend, supporting the view that the Chinese economy will confront challenges from the tariff war [2]. - In the U.S., despite stable monthly employment data, leading indicators suggest a decline starting in May, and the recently disclosed Q1 GDP turned negative, indicating an impending recession [2]. Technical Analysis - Tactical discipline is beginning to weaken, as evidenced by the reversal in the banking sector's trend following the April Politburo meeting and Q1 earnings reports [3]. - The overall technical outlook remains cautious, with institutional funds continuing to flow out of small-cap sectors [3]. - The A-share Q1 earnings, while relatively stable, are viewed as a small rebound within a mid-term downward trend, necessitating defensive positioning ahead of potential economic shocks [3]. Investment Strategy - For the main board, the recommendation is to maintain low positions as the positive impacts of Q1 economic data and earnings have already materialized, while the second quarter's tariff war effects are still unfolding [3]. - For small-cap sectors, despite better Q1 earnings compared to the main board, concerns about the sustainability of the recovery remain significant, thus low positions are advised [3]. - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on industries such as automotive and home appliances [3].

Policy Insights - The government has set a GDP growth target of 5.0% for 2023-2025, indicating a stable economic outlook[2] - The inflation target has been lowered to 2.0%, suggesting a focus on optimizing indicators rather than aggressively boosting growth[2] - Fiscal policies have seen marginal increases in deficit rates and special bonds, but these adjustments remain within previously disclosed limits[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has shifted towards moderate easing; however, liquidity remains tight in the short term, indicating a cautious approach[2] - The government is expected to maintain a precise and effective policy stance rather than aggressively driving GDP growth[2][3] External Factors - The ongoing US-China trade tensions have led to increased tariffs, surpassing initial optimistic expectations for improved relations[4] - Gradual tariffs may peak in the second quarter, as both sides recognize the need for time to address underlying issues[1] Market Dynamics - Domestic demand is under pressure, and any upward price movements in domestic commodities may rely heavily on supply-side constraints[5] - Inflation is unlikely to show significant improvement in the first half of the year, with a focus on the second half for potential policy adjustments[6][7]

《 关税再加码，A股节奏仍将以我为主 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至3 月2日累计收益4.66%。 每周思考总第617期 1 本周建议 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 高仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 高仓位 | | 风格判断 | 小盘 | 观点简述： 春节后第四周市场终于开启调整，沪深300指数涨幅-2.22%，上证综指周涨幅-1.72%，中证500指 数周涨幅-3.26%。2月27日美国宣布对中国商品再加征10%关税，叠加传统2月末处置效应，A股出现 单日大幅调整。 基本面上，中国经济节奏仍把控在我们自己手中。 国内方面，继1月官方PMI明降实升后，周六 披露的2月官方PMI再度超预期回升，表明春节期间中国经济总体上保持平稳回升，考虑到2月美方已 开始对我加征10%关税，表明中国内生经济的活跃度回升部分对冲了外需波动，当然也要清楚看到当 前国内经济只是暂时稳态，在后续美国关税不断加码后仍需更多对冲性质的财政货币政策出台；海外 方面，上周五的美乌总统会晤成为全球焦点事件，最终矿产换和平的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent increase in tariffs by the U.S. on Chinese goods, emphasizing that the A-share market will continue to be driven by domestic factors despite external pressures [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a significant adjustment following the announcement of a 10% tariff increase on Chinese goods by the U.S., with the CSI 300 index declining by 2.22%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.72%, and the CSI 500 index falling by 3.26% [2]. Economic Fundamentals - China's economic performance remains under domestic control, with the official PMI for February exceeding expectations, indicating a stable recovery during the Spring Festival period. The increase in tariffs is partially offset by the resilience of the domestic economy, although further fiscal and monetary policies will be necessary to mitigate the impact of escalating U.S. tariffs [3][4]. International Relations - The failure of the U.S.-Ukraine peace talks is highlighted, with the article suggesting that the U.S. is likely to withdraw from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The commentary indicates that the U.S. has provided the best economic negotiation terms to Ukraine, but the lack of military support from the U.S. undermines Ukraine's position [3]. Technical Analysis - Institutional funds continue to favor the main board, aligning with the fundamental outlook of a stabilizing domestic demand amidst increasing external pressures. The article suggests maintaining a high allocation in A-shares, particularly in small-cap sectors, as the market adjusts to the recent tariff news [4].