2025年A股在政策、估值、盈利、资金四重支撑下走出了牛市行情，但A股市场细分赛道的分化却愈发 明显。2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，经济转型深化与政策发力预期叠加，在这样的背景下，2026 年的投资机会如何？从技术分析的角度来看，2026年的A股市场在私募大佬眼中又会有怎样的表现？ 近日，市场资深分析人士刘宁川从技术分析的角度对2026年的市场作出推演。 刘宁川表示，展望2026年，投资方面，最好的方向应该是处于新旧经济交替的A股，特别是科技股，将 会有不俗表现。而技术上，2026年的A股只要守稳3700点水平，展开的将会是波澜壮阔的3iii主升浪行 情。 2024年预期的冲破3700点、挑战4000点的行程，在8月后已经圆满完成，"赤马""红羊"年的任务将会是 冲击5178点挑战"宇宙顶"6124点。 科技竞争大环境基本是一种赢家通吃的状态，所以投资上也要遵守一个字"稳"，要安安心心拿着成长 性、垄断性特别好的科技真龙头。 他认为，在大国博弈的赛道中，有两个主线，一个是能源革命，一个是科技革命。能源革命主要方向就 是新能源电力的应用，固态电池与未来可控核聚变。 科技方面主要就是AI+万物，AI最重要 ...

Core Insights - In the first half of 2023, Anhui's artificial intelligence (AI) enterprises achieved revenue exceeding 106.99 billion RMB, attracting 917 AI project implementations [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Growth - Anhui's AI industry development evaluation ranks fifth nationally [3]. - The scale of intelligent computing power in Anhui has reached 37,000 P, with a preliminary establishment of domestic intelligent computing clusters [3]. - The AI-themed fund in Anhui has a total scale exceeding 20 billion RMB, with investments amounting to 5.65 billion RMB [3]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Anhui aims to leverage the "AI + Everything" industry trend to accelerate the establishment of an AI material creation center [4]. - The province is pushing for a transformation in scientific research paradigms through "AI + Science" [4]. - Efforts are being made to empower various industries with advanced AI technologies, including large models [4].

Core Insights - The investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of aligning with significant economic and social trends to identify investment opportunities [1][2][4] - A systematic approach to investment is highlighted, focusing on growth value and the different stages of industry cycles [2][3][4] Investment Philosophy - Investment opportunities are recognized based on distinct era backgrounds, with historical trends such as industrialization, mobile internet, supply-side reforms, consumption upgrades, and the recent AI wave being pivotal [2][7] - The investment framework includes a combination of top-down and bottom-up analysis, focusing on macro trends and specific industry dynamics [3][4] Industry Cycle Insights - The industry cycle is categorized into three stages: breakthrough (0 to 1), growth (1 to 10), and maturity (10 to N), with different investment focuses for each stage [3][4] - Emphasis is placed on understanding the potential for technological breakthroughs in the early stage and tracking fundamental performance in the growth stage [3] Risk Management - The importance of maintaining a solid investment foundation and adhering to a value bottom line is stressed, with safety margins being crucial for portfolio construction [4][5] - The investment discipline of "following the big trend and countering the small trend" is advocated, focusing on strategic timing in market movements [5] Market Outlook - The emergence of new floating-rate funds is seen as a call for professionalism in asset management, aligning the interests of managers and investors [6] - Positive changes in the market, such as policy support and technological innovation, are expected to create a favorable environment for capital markets [6][7] Future Investment Directions - The ongoing economic transformation is anticipated to reveal more long-term investment opportunities, particularly in AI and its applications, new consumption trends, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military-industrial sectors [7]