来源：倪卫涛 一、从"黄金跟班"到"顶流网红"：白银这波涨得有多疯狂？ 要说白银这玩意儿，以前在贵金属圈就是个"千年老二"，黄金涨它跟着涨点，黄金跌它跌得更狠，活脱脱一个"黄 金影子"。但今年不一样了，黄金还在慢悠悠爬坡，白银直接一脚油门踩到底，从年初的28美元/盎司一路飙到38 美元，涨幅比黄金还猛！Wind数据显示，不光期货现货价格创新高，连带着国内的投资银条、银币销量都同比激 增40%，有珠宝交易中心的负责人都说，6月份销售额比5月份涨了20%，现在客户进门就问"一公斤的银条还有 吗？"，跟买白菜似的。 为啥突然这么火？你去银行网点瞅瞅就知道，以前大妈们排队买金条，现在柜台前问银条的比问金条的还多。有 个银行朋友跟我吐槽："以前银条放仓库积灰，现在客户打电话预定，一开口就要10公斤，说是给儿子当'结婚储 备金'，比存现金靠谱。"不光散户疯，机构也在抢，全球最大的白银ETF持仓量最近蹭蹭往上涨，连咱们国家的 央行都在悄悄增持——今年前五个月，咱们央行买了200多吨白银，比去年全年还多！ 这场景是不是有点眼熟？2020年疫情那阵子，黄金涨上2000美元，白银也跟着冲到29美元，当时也是全民抢银 条，结果后来 ...

最后再给大家提个醒，美国这次加税虽然炒高了美铜，但对全球铜供应链的影响才刚刚开始。那些在美国有铜矿的公司，比如Freeport-McMoRan，最近 股价涨得那叫一个欢，但加拿大的矿商也在盯着美国市场，未来竞争肯定会更激烈。咱们作为中长线投资者，与其追着短期波动跑，不如把目光放长 远，多关注那些受益于新能源革命的铜企和相关基金。 不过，这波涨价能持续多久呢？咱们得从供需两头看。从供应端讲，美国想通过加税刺激本土铜矿开采，可铜矿从勘探到投产少说也得三五年，远水解 不了近渴。就拿智利来说，作为全球最大铜生产国，人家自己都面临缺水减产的问题，根本没法在短期内多给美国供货。再看需求端，现在全球都在搞 新能源革命，电动汽车、光伏电站、半导体哪个离得开铜？普华永道都发警告了，到2035年气候变化可能让全球32%的半导体产能面临铜供应中断风险。 这种情况下，铜价的长期支撑力可不容小觑。 对咱们投资者来说，这波行情该怎么把握呢？首先得明白，短期的关税炒作肯定会有波动，就像7月8日暴涨之后，9日价格又回落了2.75%。但从中长期 来看，铜的基本面依然强劲。长江证券的报告就指出，全球制造业已经盘整了两年多，一旦美联储降息带动经济 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 1.1 背景 美联储连续降息至1%（2003年），叠加中国加入WTO后工业化加速，全球大宗商品需求 爆发，流动性泛滥。 1.2 标志性行情 铜： 从2002年低点1.5万元/吨飙升至2006年8.5万元/吨（涨幅超400%），主因中国电 网基建爆发性需求。 橡胶： 从2001年6000元/吨涨至2006年3万元/吨，受汽车产业扩张及东南亚供应紧张推 动。 1.3 转折点 来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 国内期货市场自成立以来，经历了多次显著的跌势转涨势行情，这些转折往往由宏观政 策、供需突变或地缘事件驱动。结合历史资料，以下是几波具有代表性的行情反转： 2001–2007年 大宗商品超级周期 2003年国内城镇化政策落地，需求预期逆转前期熊市。 2008–2011年 金融危机后的复苏与政策刺激 2.1 背景 2008年全球金融危机导致商品暴跌（铜半年内从6万至2万/吨），2009年中国推出"四万 亿"计划+宽松货币政策。 2.2 标志性行情 棉花： 2008年低点1万元/吨暴涨至2010年3.3万元/吨，因新疆减产与纺织业复苏。 螺纹钢： 2009年初 ...

一、市场驱动逻辑：供需缺口与政策窗口的双重变奏 1. 工业需求重构价格体系 近期白银市场迎来结构性行情。据环球网 7 月 6 日报道，现货白银价格站稳 36 美元上方，连续六个交易日上涨，创近 13 年新高，国内白银首饰 价格普遍上调 15%-20%。这种强势表现源于工业需求爆发与金融属性修复的双重驱动：光伏领域每 GW 装机消耗约 10 吨白银，2025 年全球需求 预计达 7560 吨；美联储降息预期升温推动金银比从 100:1 的历史高位回落至 91:1，白银作为 "穷人的黄金" 弹性凸显。s 新能源革命正在改写白银的价值逻辑。N 型电池技术普及推动全球光伏用银量年均增长 5.7%，新能源汽车单车用银量较燃油车提升 71%，5G 基 站建设使白银年需求增加 40%。这种需求爆发与矿产银供给停滞形成鲜明对比 —— 全球前十大银矿平均开采年限达 23 年，2025 年供需缺口预计 扩大至 1.49 亿盎司，库存仅够维持 3 个月消费。正如央视新闻指出，白银已连续 5 年供不应求，37 美元 / 盎司的阻力位有望在资金推动下突破。 2. 金融属性迎来修复窗口 美联储 9 月降息概率高达 77%，美元走弱与实际 ...

一、供需格局重构：工业需求成为核心引擎 近期白银市场呈现出显著的结构性机会。据和讯网 6 月 25 日行业分析，在供需缺口扩大与金银比修复的双重催化下，2025 年三季度白银价格有望突破 10000 元 / 千克（对应美白银 42 美元 / 盎司）。截至 7 月 3 日，伦敦银现报 36.601 美元 / 盎司，沪银主连站稳 8845 元 / 千克关口，较月初涨幅达 1.01%，显 示市场对白银的中长期价值形成共识。 面对复杂的市场环境，投资者需构建科学的交易框架。以金盛贵金属 MT5 平台为例，其提供的斐波那契线、布林带等专业指标，可帮助投资者捕捉伦敦银 突破 34.5 美元 / 盎司箱体震荡上沿的多头信号。当市场出现短期压制（如美联储鹰派表态）时，平台支持的黄金 - 白银跨品种对冲功能，能有效降低波动风 险 —— 通过实时监控品种相关性，动态调整持仓结构，在 6 月白银连续创新高期间，部分用户通过日内 T+0 交易实现单日超 5% 收益。 美联储降息周期开启预期下，金银比价（当前约 91:1）正加速向历史均值（40-70:1）回归。白银作为 "穷人的黄金"，其价格弹性显著高于黄金，在降息环 境下更易获得资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that energy is the fundamental structure shaping civilization and geopolitics, with a focus on the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy in the 21st century [1][4][9]. Energy Transition and Its Implications - The 19th century was dominated by coal, which established Britain's global manufacturing supremacy [2]. - The 20th century saw oil as the key resource, enabling the United States to maintain its position as the world's leading economy through extensive use and control of fossil fuels [3]. - The article raises questions about how renewable energy will reshape the world both materially and geopolitically in the 21st century [4][6]. Renewable Energy Developments - The transition to renewable energy is characterized by a fundamental shift in energy production models from centralized to distributed systems, allowing households to generate power [11][12]. - Smart grids will replace traditional grids, creating a new "energy internet" and redefining energy infrastructure [13]. - The manufacturing ecosystem will undergo a complete transformation, with industries moving towards electrification and new production cost structures emerging [14][19]. Geopolitical Shifts - The article discusses the potential weakening of the petrodollar system as renewable energy transactions may bypass dollar settlements, impacting traditional energy-exporting nations [24][25]. - China is positioned as a leader in the renewable energy supply chain, controlling over 70% of global photovoltaic capacity and 60% of wind power capacity, which could lead to a shift in geopolitical power dynamics [26]. - The competition for setting new energy standards, similar to the 5G standard battle, will have significant implications for global influence [27]. Conclusion - The article concludes that the 21st century is moving away from fossil fuels, and the ability to dominate the renewable energy landscape will shape global power structures for the foreseeable future [28].

中国AI赋能能源革命： 从智能预测到储能革新，引领全球绿色转型 【Oilprice 网 6月30日报道】 中国正大规模将人工智能融入能源领域，以提升整体效率、保障国家能源安全。 随着风能和太阳能等可变可再生能源快速扩张，人工智能广泛应用于更精准地预测能源供需。 人工智能还通过改进电池设计、安全性能和管理策略，显著提升能源存储水平。 中国正加速将人工智能深度融入能源体系，以提升能源效率并筑牢国家能源安全防线。从能源存储管理到更精准地预测能源供需，大语言模型能推动能源 系统整体更智能化、精细化，减少能源浪费。 早在2020年，国有天然气巨头中国燃气控股有限公司就已利用人工智能来更精准地预测天然气需求中复杂且动态的变化。这些由AI模型能够综合历史数 据和实时信息，运算速度远超人工。 然而，随着中国电网中可再生能源占比不断上升，预测问题变得更加棘手，也更为关键。中国在可再生能源部署方面领先全球。仅在5 月，中国电网新增 太阳能和风能发电量就与波兰整国的电力产能相当。随着中国不断打破自身的可再生能源纪录，其电网对可变能源的依赖度大幅增加，因此也更受天气变 化影响。因此，实现精准能源预测对国家能源安全至关重要。 为此，中 ...

Core Insights - The rural renewable energy sector has the potential to provide approximately 730 million tons of standard coal equivalent annually, which is 12 times the current total energy consumption in rural areas of China [1] - The rural energy revolution is seen as a critical pathway for achieving China's dual carbon goals and rural revitalization strategy, requiring a coordinated approach at the national level [2][4] - The unique advantages of the rural energy revolution stem from the abundant renewable resources and the urgent demand for clean energy in rural areas, where over 55% of energy consumption still relies on coal [3][5] Group 1: Strategic Importance - The rural energy revolution is a key component of national strategy, as highlighted in the report from the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [2] - Experts emphasize that the rural energy revolution must integrate energy supply security, agricultural development, and ecological governance [1][4] Group 2: Resource Potential - China has significant potential for distributed photovoltaic technology, with over 2 billion kilowatts of potential capacity, and rural rooftops alone can contribute over 800 million kilowatts [3] - The annual production of agricultural straw is approximately 790 million tons, and livestock manure amounts to about 3.05 billion tons, indicating a vast resource base for renewable energy [3] Group 3: Challenges and Structural Issues - Despite the strategic clarity and resource abundance, the rural energy sector faces structural contradictions, including a disconnect between energy production and rural development [4][6] - The overproduction of renewable energy in rural areas exceeds local consumption capacity, leading to a situation where rural areas generate green electricity but lack local utilization channels [5][6] Group 4: Mechanism and Technological Innovations - Mechanism innovation and technological empowerment are essential for overcoming current challenges, with cooperative models showing promise in restructuring benefits [7][8] - Multi-energy complementarity is identified as an effective approach to enhance economic feasibility and reduce energy costs in rural energy development [7][8] Group 5: Policy and Implementation - Recent policies, such as the "Thousand Villages and Ten Thousand Villages Wind Action" and "Thousand Households Sunlight Action," have been implemented to facilitate rural energy transformation [4] - There is a need for a comprehensive rural low-carbon/zero-carbon building standard and improved energy statistical accounting systems to support the transition [9]

Core Viewpoint - Hydrogen energy is poised to play a significant role in future energy structures, but the industry, including hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, is still in the exploratory phase, facing challenges in technology, cost, and business models [2][3][4]. Industry Development - 2025 is identified as a critical year for the large-scale development of hydrogen energy, particularly in the heavy-duty commercial vehicle sector, which has vast application potential [2][4]. - The global hydrogen industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with China emerging as a leader in innovation and development [4]. - Predictions indicate that by 2030, the hydrogen energy industry will enter a rapid development phase, with cost competitiveness expected between 2030 and 2035 [3][4]. Economic and Technical Challenges - The hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry is currently facing economic viability issues, with small industry scale and low competitiveness being key bottlenecks [6][7]. - There is a need for top-level design and timely policy support to avoid gaps in hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry policies [6][7]. - The industry must focus on technological innovation and collaboration to reduce lifecycle costs and improve safety [6][7]. Collaborative Efforts - The development of hydrogen energy requires collaboration across the entire industry chain, including market demand awareness and international cooperation [8]. - Establishing a resilient ecosystem and a complete supply chain is essential for reducing costs and ensuring profitability for all stakeholders [8][9]. Storage and Transportation - Low-pressure solid-state storage and liquid hydrogen are highlighted as effective solutions for overcoming hydrogen storage and transportation challenges [9]. - The integration of hydrogen energy with existing industries is crucial for future development, with an increasing proportion of hydrogen in pipeline networks anticipated [9]. Broader Applications - Beyond vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells have potential applications in maritime transport, with a focus on regulatory updates and infrastructure development [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent Rural Energy Development Conference highlighted the significant opportunities for rural energy development in China, driven by policy support and technological advancements, aiming for inclusive, safe, green, economic, and collaborative growth [1][2]. Group 1: Rural Energy Development - Rural energy is crucial for ensuring supply, improving livelihoods, and reducing carbon emissions, serving as a key driver for agricultural modernization [1]. - The development of renewable energy in rural areas is becoming an essential part of rural industry and a vital source of income for farmers [1]. - The diverse applications of renewable energy, such as solar, wind, and biomass, are expected to see substantial growth as agricultural modernization accelerates [1]. Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - Rural areas face significant challenges, including weak infrastructure and limited social services, leading to high costs and long supply chains for renewable energy development [2]. - The focus during the 14th Five-Year Plan should shift towards rural energy transition and industrial restructuring, ensuring economic viability and ecological sustainability [2]. - Strategies to enhance rural energy development include improving clean energy supply capabilities, expanding direct applications of renewable energy, and fostering innovative service systems [2]. Group 3: Policy and Research Insights - The report on rural energy policy emphasizes the need for a balanced approach that incorporates accessibility, cleanliness, affordability, and reliability in energy development [3]. - Sustainable rural energy development requires suitable technology, viable business models, and robust policy support to create a closed-loop system of usability, feasibility, and policy backing [3].