AI主线调整
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东吴证券:关注2026年市场风格新一轮转换关键窗口 AI主线或迎来中期调整
智通财经网· 2025-11-16 01:52
Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that the A-share market is entering a new bull market, with growth style leading the way and small-cap indices outperforming large-cap indices. A potential shift from "growth to value" is expected around June 2026, influenced by industry trends and liquidity conditions [1][2]. Industry Trends - The absence of blockbuster AI applications in the first half of the year, combined with liquidity pressure from a strengthening dollar in the second half, may lead to a cautious market sentiment and a mid-term adjustment for AI stocks [3]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" starting in 2026 is expected to reinforce policies centered on technological innovation and modern industrial systems, becoming a focal point for the market in the first half of the year [3]. Market Dynamics - The transition from growth to value style is closely tied to industry and liquidity turning points. A weak dollar trend may attract previously overseas capital back to the domestic market, creating a multiplier effect that supports the economy [2]. - The report anticipates that the dollar may weaken in the first half of 2026, with a potential turning point around June, as global liquidity conditions remain favorable [2]. Profitability Analysis - A rebound in overall revenue and profit growth for A-shares is expected, ending a four-year decline since 2021. This is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics and the deepening of market reforms [4]. - The stabilization of Return on Equity (ROE) is linked to the rebalancing of supply and demand, with expectations of improved corporate profits as anti-involution policies take effect [4]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes "technology and security" and "reform and growth." Key areas include AI technology, resource security, and sectors benefiting from geopolitical dynamics [5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with improving supply-demand structures, such as lithium battery materials and traditional industries with price recovery potential [6][7]. Consumer Trends - There is an increasing necessity for policy support for service consumption and non-durable goods, with a focus on sectors like travel, hospitality, and essential consumer products expected to see improved sentiment in 2026 [7].