Profit and Revenue Trends - In July, industrial enterprises' cumulative revenue increased by 2.3% year-on-year, down from 2.5% in the previous month[7] - Cumulative profit showed a decline of 1.7% year-on-year, slightly improved from a decline of 1.8% previously[7] - The profit growth rate in July rebounded by 3.3 percentage points to -1.1%[3] Cost and Profitability Analysis - Cost and expense rates contributed significantly to profit recovery, with costs up by 9.8 percentage points to 5.9% and expenses up by 0.5 percentage points to -1.6%[3] - The cost rate's impact on profit year-on-year decreased by 16.8 percentage points to -10.9% in July 2024 compared to the previous month[3] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises improved, with July's profit rising by 2.8 percentage points to -1.5%[28] Sector Performance - The automotive sector experienced a significant profit decline of 113.7 percentage points to -17.1% in July, indicating high volatility in specific industries[14] - Revenue growth in the consumer manufacturing sector fell sharply, with a year-on-year decline of 2.6 percentage points to 6.2%[21] - The petrochemical and metallurgy sectors showed slight revenue improvements, with increases of 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points to 0.2% and 2.7%, respectively[21] Inventory and Receivables - The inventory growth rate for industrial enterprises slightly increased, with nominal inventory down by 0.7 percentage points to 2.4%[39] - Accounts receivable as a percentage of total assets rose to 14.6%, indicating prolonged collection cycles[23] - Actual inventory growth improved by 0.3 percentage points to 7.6%, particularly in upstream and midstream sectors[39]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The upward trend of stock index futures is clear, and long positions should be held; commodity futures such as Shanghai Aluminum and polysilicon continue to show a strong trend [1] - The bond market may continue to operate at a high level, and the prices of precious metals are running strongly; the copper market has short - term upward pressure, and the aluminum market has a clear medium - term long position pattern; the nickel market has limited upward space [1][4] - The supply - demand structure of lithium carbonate shows signs of improvement; the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are supported; the prices of steel products are strongly supported; the prices of coking coal and coke are in a volatile state [5][6][7] - The fundamentals of soda ash and float glass are bearish in the short term, and the glass price may turn around in the long term; crude oil is weakly operating in the short term; methanol and polyolefin are in a volatile pattern [7][8][9] - Cotton is weakly operating, and rubber is expected to rebound in the short term [9] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - The stock index continued to rise steadily on Wednesday, with small and micro - cap stocks leading the gains. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly to 1.76 trillion yuan. The long - making sentiment in the market was strengthened, and the leverage funds accelerated to enter the market. The upward trend of the stock index is clear, and the long positions of IF2509 in the CSI 300 Index should be held [1] Bond Futures - The bond market continued to fluctuate at a high level. The macro - situation has uncertainties, the inflation pressure still exists, and the central bank's open - market operations have a net withdrawal, but the capital is still loose. The bond market is difficult to turn around, and there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to operate at a high level [1] Precious Metals - After Trump announced a series of important news, the short - term upward momentum of gold prices has increased. The gold - silver ratio still has room for repair, and the long - position pattern of silver is clear. It is recommended to hold short - position out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract of gold and silver, and patiently hold long positions in silver [4] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The copper price continued to fluctuate within the range. The macro - situation has uncertainties, the supply side is tense due to the Chilean copper mine incident, and the demand side is cautious. The mine - end disturbances and the weakening of the US dollar index support the copper price, but the demand concerns still drag it down, and there is short - term upward pressure [4] Aluminum - The alumina price is slightly higher, and the market has an expectation of medium - term surplus, but the low warehouse receipts and market sentiment support the price. The demand for Shanghai Aluminum is expected to be cautious in the off - season, but the supply constraint limits the inventory accumulation pressure. The long - position pattern of Shanghai Aluminum in the medium term remains unchanged, and the long positions of AL2510 should be held [4] Nickel - The supply of nickel is loose, the demand has no significant improvement, and the high inventory pressure of refined nickel remains unchanged. Although the nickel price has rebounded at a low level under the influence of the macro - situation, the upward space is limited. It is recommended to hold short - position call options [4] Chemical Products Lithium Carbonate - Due to the influence of policies on the lithium resource end, the weekly output of lithium carbonate has decreased, the inventory accumulation pressure has been relieved, and the demand expectation has turned positive. The supply - demand structure shows signs of improvement, and the renewal result of the mining license of Jiuxiwo Mine needs to be closely watched this week [6] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The price of industrial silicon has rebounded, the supply is in a passive contraction state, and the fundamentals are supported. The spot price of polysilicon has risen significantly, with strong cost and policy support, but the actual production volume in August needs to be concerned [6] Steel and Iron Ore Rebar - The spot price of rebar continued to rise, the trading volume decreased slightly, the supply - demand contradiction accumulated slowly, and the inventory was at a low level. The supply is restricted by environmental protection and anti - involution policies, and the cost is supported by the rise in coking coal and coke prices. It is recommended to hold short - position out - of - the - money put options on RB2510P3000 [6] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil continued to rise, and the fundamentals are tough. The supply is restricted, the cost is supported, and the market sentiment is optimistic. It is recommended to lay out long positions on the 1 - contract on dips [6] Iron Ore - The iron ore shows a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The 9 - contract is dragged down by environmental protection restrictions and weak basis, while the 1 - contract is supported by positive expectations. However, the upward space of the iron ore price is limited. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on the 09 - contract or go long on the 01 - contract after the environmental protection restriction expectations are fulfilled [6] Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The market has an expectation of supply tightening, but the full implementation probability of reducing coal mine production hours is low, and the influence of expected sentiment on coal prices is greater than the fundamentals. Be wary of the risk of over - rising prices [7] Coke - Five rounds of price increases for coke have been implemented, the coking profit has been repaired, the supply and demand are expected to increase, the spot market trading is active, and the futures price is stable and fluctuating strongly [7] Soda Ash and Float Glass Soda Ash - The fundamentals of soda ash are bearish. The daily production is stable, the supply constraint is insufficient, the demand has no improvement, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The 9 - contract is approaching delivery, and the delivery game may be intense. It is recommended to stop profit on short positions on the 09 - contract [7] Float Glass - The downstream orders of glass deep - processing enterprises have not improved significantly, the replenishment willingness is limited, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The 9 - contract is approaching delivery, and the delivery game may be intense. In the long term, if the supply contraction expectation is fulfilled, the glass price may turn around. It is recommended to stop profit on short positions on the 9 - contract on dips and lay out long positions on the 01 - contract [7] Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors increase the probability of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the short - term risk premium decreases. Although the inventory data is positive, the market reaction is insufficient, and the crude oil is weakly operating [7] Methanol - The port inventory has increased, and the production enterprise inventory has decreased. The coastal supply is loose, and the inland supply is tight. It is recommended to sell an option straddle combination [9] Polyolefins - The production enterprise inventory and social inventory of polyolefins have increased, indicating a loose supply. The supply and demand will increase simultaneously in August, and the trend will turn to a volatile and slightly strong state [9] Cotton - The cotton growth in Xinjiang is good, with a high probability of increased production. The overseas cotton production area has good weather, but the Sino - US trade situation restricts cotton exports. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The cotton is weakly operating [9] Rubber - The sales of passenger cars are good, the tire enterprises' inventory is decreasing, and the demand expectation is turning warm. The raw material price has stopped falling and stabilized, and the rubber price is expected to stop falling and rebound in stages [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Oscillating [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish in the short - term [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock indices, the recent Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission emphasized the construction of a unified national market with "five unifications and one opening". The market has high expectations for corporate profit recovery and inflation stabilization under the anti - involution background. However, the central government is still stimulating the economy through investment, which may bring incremental funds in the short - term but the long - term effect remains to be seen. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down due to strong "non - farm" data, weakening the boost to domestic small - cap indices. The index fundamentals depend on the domestic economic recovery process. With PPI continuing to decline in June, credit contraction and insufficient demand are the main contradictions, making it difficult for the index to break through the central level and rise significantly. On the other hand, corporate profits in the first half of 2025 improved compared to 2024, and with the support of allocation funds, the A - share index is not likely to fall sharply in the short - term. It is expected to oscillate in the future [1]. - For treasury bonds, on July 28, 2025, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures main contracts rose by 0.56%, 0.18%, 0.13%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. After deducting the 170.7 billion yuan of reverse repos due on the same day, the net investment was 325.1 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 in the inter - bank market decreased. The export growth rate in June exceeded expectations, the total financial data exceeded expectations and the structure continued to improve. The GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 5.2%, and the economic data in June remained resilient, reducing the short - term expectation of interest - rate cuts. Since July, the anti - involution policy expectations have driven up market risk appetite, with stock indices and commodities rising strongly, suppressing the bond market sentiment. In the short - term, the bond market rebound is basically over, and the bond market is expected to show a recovery trend, with treasury bonds bullish in the short - term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes in the Second Quarter - Stock Index Futures: On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, IH rose by 9.0 points (0.32%), IF rose by 6.0 points (0.15%), IC rose by 6.0 points (0.10%), and IM fell by 3.8 points (- 0.06%) [3] - Stock Indices: On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose by 7.3 points (0.26%), the CSI 300 rose by 8.7 points (0.21%), the CSI 500 rose by 23.8 points (0.38%), and the CSI 1000 rose by 23.4 points (0.35%) [3] - Treasury Bond Futures: On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, TS rose by 0.052 points (0.05%), TF rose by 0.15 points (0.14%), T rose by 0.215 points (0.20%), and TL rose by 0.83 points (0.70%) [3] 3.2 Market News - On July 28, regarding the Sino - US - Swedish economic and trade talks, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that China's stance on economic and trade issues is consistent. China hopes that the US will implement the important consensus reached in the phone call between the two heads of state, play the role of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations through dialogue and communication [5] 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the monthly basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [7][8][9][10] 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][16][17] 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - The report includes the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate [20][21][22][24][25][27] 3.4 Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0015271 [28] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0019537 [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Neutral (Expected to fluctuate) [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Ya鲁藏布江下游 hydropower project started, driving the infrastructure and building materials sectors up. The economic and financial data in June showed that the demand disturbance persisted and investment continued to decline. The central government is stimulating the economy through investment, which may bring incremental funds in the short - term, but the long - term effect remains to be seen. Overseas, the Fed's rate - cut expectation has slowed down. The index is expected to fluctuate mainly, as the current contradictions are credit contraction and insufficient demand, but the corporate earnings in the first half of 2025 improved compared to 2024 [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. The economic data showed resilience, and the short - term rate - cut expectation was low. The stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious, and treasury bonds are expected to run bearishly in the short - term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Stock Index**: The Ya鲁藏布江 downstream hydropower project with an investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan drove the infrastructure and building materials sectors up. In June, GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, retail sales increased 4.8%, industrial added value rose 6.8%, and fixed - asset investment accumulated 2.8%. Real estate development investment decreased 11.2%. M1 showed good performance, and corporate short - term loans increased significantly. The central government is stimulating the economy through investment. Overseas, the Fed's rate - cut expectation slowed down. The index is expected to fluctuate as the current contradictions are credit contraction and insufficient demand, but corporate earnings improved in H1 2025 [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 3310 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of 1195 billion yuan. The DR001 and DR007 rates increased. The economic data showed resilience, and the short - term rate - cut expectation was low. The stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious, and treasury bonds are expected to run bearishly in the short - term [3] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 24, 2025, IH rose 0.49%, IF rose 0.78%, IC rose 1.73%, and IM rose 1.82% compared to July 23 [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: On July 24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.40%, the CSI 300 rose 0.71%, the CSI 500 rose 1.56%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.42% compared to July 23 [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 24, 2025, TS fell 0.07%, TF fell 0.19%, T fell 0.28%, and TL fell 0.86% compared to July 23 [4] Market News - The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "Opinions on Strengthening Financial Services for Rural Reform and Promoting Comprehensive Rural Revitalization", proposing to increase financial resource input in key areas of rural revitalization [5][6] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their respective basis trends from 2024 - 01 to 2025 - 07 [8][9][12] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - term spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates from 2023 - 07 to 2025 - 07 [15][18][20] - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates of the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the Japanese yen from 2023 - 01 to 2025 - 07 [23][24][27] Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of the macro - financial research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute [31]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index financial report analysis, and market capital tracking [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The A-share market is expected to continue to fluctuate. The index fundamentals depend on the domestic economic recovery process. Although the corporate profit situation in the first half of 2025 has improved significantly compared to 2024, and there is support from allocation funds, the index is difficult to break through the central level and rise significantly due to credit contraction and insufficient demand under the background of debt resolution. On the other hand, it will not experience a sharp decline in the short term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in an environment with loose funds, stable economy, and low short-term interest rate cut expectations. With insufficient upward and downward momentum, it is expected to continue the fluctuating trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On July 9, 2025, the A-share market fluctuated and closed down. The Wind All A index fell 0.18% with a trading volume of 1.53 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also declined. The media sector led the rise, while the non-ferrous metals sector corrected. The recent Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the construction of a unified national market, but the impact on related themes depends on the transfer mode and scale of central fiscal incremental policies. Overseas, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slowed down, and the boost to domestic small-cap indices has weakened. The fundamentals of the index depend on the domestic economic recovery process, and it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On July 9, 2025, treasury bond futures closed with gains. The central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. The net withdrawal of funds was 230 billion yuan. The overall capital situation was loose, and the price index remained stable. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 9, 2025, compared with the previous day, the IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts all declined, with declines of -0.14%, -0.15%, -0.47%, and -0.35% respectively [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices also declined, with declines of -0.26%, -0.18%, -0.41%, and -0.27% respectively [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS, TF, T, and TL contracts all rose, with increases of 0.00%, 0.02%, 0.03%, and 0.14% respectively [3]. 3.3 Market News - From 2021 to 2024, China's economy maintained an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. The average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth was 86.4%, and the average contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth reached 56.2%, 8.6 percentage points higher than that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trend charts of the main contracts and the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the trend charts of the main contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides the trend charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates of other currency pairs [20][21][22]