中证报中证网讯（记者 张舒琳）11月25日，兴华基金权益公募部基金经理黄生鹏在中国证券报"中证点 金汇"直播间表示，当下，市场对风格转换的讨论越来越多，但转换更可能在小盘相对大盘的估值溢价 过高的时候发生，目前时机仍然未到，依然能在小市值公司中找到估值合理的投资标的。从目前的估值 结构来看，数据显示，中证1000指数、中证2000指数以及微盘股指数的PB分别在2.5倍、2.8倍和2.4倍左 右，而代表大盘指数的沪深300指数为1.5倍左右。目前的小盘溢价水平在历史上并不是非常高估的状 态。在这样的估值结构以及当前流动性充裕的背景下，小微盘标的可能在较长周期呈现较好的投资机 会。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of technology stocks in the A-share market has shown signs of slowing down, while dividend stocks have started to perform relatively strongly, indicating a potential shift in market style [1][2] Group 1: Technology and Dividend Style Transition - There is a noticeable transition in the A-share market between technology and dividend styles, with technology stocks recently underperforming compared to dividend stocks [2] - From October 2023, the CSI Technology Index has declined by 4.47%, lagging behind the CSI Dividend Index by over 7 percentage points, which has increased by 3.05% during the same period [2] - In November 2023, the CSI Technology Index further dropped by 6.25%, again underperforming the CSI Dividend Index by nearly 7 percentage points, which only rose by 0.57% [2] Group 2: Historical Context of Style Shifts - Historically, the A-share market has experienced multiple transitions between technology and dividend stocks, with one category often dominating the other [4] - From 2015 to 2024, there have been several instances where technology stocks outperformed dividend stocks, such as in 2015 when the CSI Technology Index surged by 86.45% [5] - Conversely, in 2022, technology stocks saw a significant decline of 32%, while dividend stocks only fell by 5.45%, showcasing the defensive nature of dividend stocks during market downturns [5] Group 3: Current Market Dynamics - The current A-share market structure is described as "dumbbell-shaped," with one end representing low-valuation, high-dividend sectors like banks, and the other end representing high-growth technology stocks [6] - The recent rise in Agricultural Bank's stock price to a historical high further supports the strengthening of this "dumbbell" structure [7] - Despite the recent pullback in technology stocks due to profit-taking, this does not signify the end of a bull market, as both technology and dividend stocks are expected to coexist and drive the market upward [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that the A-share market is entering a new bull market, with growth style leading the way and small-cap indices outperforming large-cap indices. A potential shift from "growth to value" is expected around June 2026, influenced by industry trends and liquidity conditions [1][2]. Industry Trends - The absence of blockbuster AI applications in the first half of the year, combined with liquidity pressure from a strengthening dollar in the second half, may lead to a cautious market sentiment and a mid-term adjustment for AI stocks [3]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" starting in 2026 is expected to reinforce policies centered on technological innovation and modern industrial systems, becoming a focal point for the market in the first half of the year [3]. Market Dynamics - The transition from growth to value style is closely tied to industry and liquidity turning points. A weak dollar trend may attract previously overseas capital back to the domestic market, creating a multiplier effect that supports the economy [2]. - The report anticipates that the dollar may weaken in the first half of 2026, with a potential turning point around June, as global liquidity conditions remain favorable [2]. Profitability Analysis - A rebound in overall revenue and profit growth for A-shares is expected, ending a four-year decline since 2021. This is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics and the deepening of market reforms [4]. - The stabilization of Return on Equity (ROE) is linked to the rebalancing of supply and demand, with expectations of improved corporate profits as anti-involution policies take effect [4]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes "technology and security" and "reform and growth." Key areas include AI technology, resource security, and sectors benefiting from geopolitical dynamics [5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with improving supply-demand structures, such as lithium battery materials and traditional industries with price recovery potential [6][7]. Consumer Trends - There is an increasing necessity for policy support for service consumption and non-durable goods, with a focus on sectors like travel, hospitality, and essential consumer products expected to see improved sentiment in 2026 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a style shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks, driven by macroeconomic stabilization and a focus on performance certainty amid rising risk aversion [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index has risen by 4.33% in the past month, reaching a new high for the year, while the CSI 2000 Index and the North Exchange 50 Index have declined by 6.77% and 0.25%, respectively, indicating a market style switch [1][2]. - Since the "9·24 market" in 2024, the CSI 2000 Index had previously outperformed the SSE 50 Index by 109.65%, but recently it has underperformed by approximately 5 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers believe that the current market conditions are prompting a shift towards larger market capitalization stocks due to the pursuit of performance certainty and heightened risk aversion [1][3]. - Recent dividend announcements from several small-cap funds reflect fund managers' intentions to lock in profits, with notable distributions such as 0.87 yuan per 10 shares from the Jianxin CSI 1000 Index Enhanced A fund and 4 yuan per 10 shares from the Wanji North Exchange Selected fund [2]. Group 3: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The liquidity cycle in the A-share market is characterized by four stages, with the current phase likely being the end of the initial expansion stage, suggesting a potential return to large-cap stocks as institutional funds enter the market [3][6]. - The market has seen a "dumbbell structure" where funds have concentrated on either low-valuation large-cap stocks or small-cap stocks, leaving mid-cap stocks under pressure [3]. Group 4: Fund Positioning - Many high-performing funds are transitioning their holdings from small-cap to large-cap stocks, reflecting a broader trend of "shifting from small to large" [4][5]. - For instance, the Yongying Technology Smart Selection fund has shifted its focus from small-cap growth stocks to larger growth stocks, indicating a significant change in investment strategy [4]. Group 5: Institutional Factors - Institutional changes, such as the upcoming new regulations on performance benchmarks for public funds, are expected to reinforce the trend towards large-cap stocks [6]. - The valuation of large-cap stocks, particularly the CSI 300 Index, shows that they are undervalued with a PE and PB rolling 5-year percentile of 42.85% and 40.12%, respectively, suggesting strong defensive characteristics [6].

Group 1: Core Insights - The article highlights a significant decline in precious metals, with gold experiencing its largest single-day drop in over 12 years, falling by 6.3% to approximately $4080 per ounce, while silver dropped 8.7% to $47.89 per ounce, marking its worst performance since February 2021 [1][3][18] - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical stability in the Middle East on oil prices, noting a recent increase in oil prices by 0.64% due to signs of peace, while also mentioning a sharp decline in U.S. oil demand and refinery activity [2][12] - The article emphasizes the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with market participants closely watching upcoming trade talks, and mentions the Federal Reserve's hints at pausing balance sheet reduction and potential interest rate cuts [3][18] Group 2: Market Performance - The article reports that the number of domestic tourist trips in China reached 4.998 billion in the first three quarters, an increase of 761 million year-on-year, reflecting a growth rate of 18% [1] - It notes that the financial situation of EU member states has worsened, with net financial assets declining by €172 billion compared to the first quarter of 2025 [5] - The article states that the trust industry in China has seen its asset management scale reach ¥32.43 trillion by June 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 20.11% [7] Group 3: Commodity Insights - The article indicates that the sugar market is entering a phase of inventory accumulation due to increased sugar supply from Brazil, with current sugar production slightly exceeding last year's levels [3][28] - It mentions that the domestic market for sugar is facing pressure from the upcoming new sugar season and the release of processing sugar from imports, which is expected to weigh on sugar prices [3][28] - The article highlights that the copper market is experiencing tight supply due to ongoing mining issues, while demand remains strong in sectors like electric power and automotive [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again. Domestically, the liquidity environment is likely to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. Externally, with the Fed's rate cuts and RMB appreciation, foreign funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme in the current upward market trend, considering the potential intensification of Q4 growth - stabilization policies and the possible resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4539.60, 4495.80, 4485.20, and 4463.00 respectively, with declines of - 71.60, - 101.00, - 100.60, and - 101.20. The trading volumes were 19019.00, 35560.00, 99982.00, and 14870.00, and the changes in open interest were - 23420.00, 10934.00, 1460.00, and 2001.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2983.00, 2964.20, 2963.00, and 2963.60 respectively, with declines of - 35.00, - 53.00, - 54.40, and - 53.20. The trading volumes were 7404.00, 17069.00, 56818.00, and 7921.00, and the changes in open interest were - 9009.00, 4742.00, - 2091.00, and 396.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7064.00, 6922.40, 6863.20, and 6702.00 respectively, with declines of - 148.60, - 189.40, - 183.40, and - 179.60. The trading volumes were 18020.00, 36648.00, 97770.00, and 19962.00, and the changes in open interest were - 23203.00, 13500.00, 2402.00, and 837.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7230.20, 7100.00, 7020.80, and 6805.00 respectively, with declines of - 163.80, - 176.80, - 169.80, and - 166.40. The trading volumes were 29136.00, 55221.00, 173725.00, and 32831.00, and the changes in open interest were - 33142.00, 23468.00, 14163.00, and 4252.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 43.80, - 18.80, - 141.60, and - 130.20 respectively, compared to previous values of - 14.40, 0.40, - 99.00, and - 110.20 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4514.23, 2967.77, 7016.07, and 7185.48 respectively, with declines of - 2.26%, - 1.70%, - 2.98%, and - 2.92%. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 256.91, 62.68, 200.04, and 254.33, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 5590.86, 1487.49, 3481.14, and 3838.75 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption sectors had declines of - 0.78%, - 1.72%, - 3.37%, and - 2.19%. The major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had declines of - 1.48%, - 2.31%, - 1.08%, and - 4.02%. The telecommunications and public utilities sectors had declines of - 1.99% and - 0.51% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month - CSI 300, next month - CSI 300, next quarter - CSI 300, and far - quarter - CSI 300) were 25.37, - 18.43, - 29.03, and - 51.23 respectively, compared to previous values of - 4.42, - 18.82, - 28.42, and - 51.62 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts (current month - SSE 50, next month - SSE 50, next quarter - SSE 50, and far - quarter - SSE 50) were 15.23, - 3.57, - 4.77, and - 4.17 respectively, compared to previous values of 0.00, 0.40, - 0.20, and - 0.20 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts (current month - CSI 500, next month - CSI 500, next quarter - CSI 500, and far - quarter - CSI 500) were 47.93, - 93.67, - 152.87, and - 314.07 respectively, compared to previous values of - 6.13, - 105.13, - 169.53, and - 336.33 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts (current month - CSI 1000, next month - CSI 1000, next quarter - CSI 1000, and far - quarter - CSI 1000) were 44.72, - 85.48, - 164.68, and - 380.48 respectively, compared to previous values of 1.56, - 108.64, - 196.84, and - 420.44 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - cap Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3839.76, 12688.94, 7815.57, and 2935.37 respectively, with declines of - 1.95%, - 3.04%, - 2.96%, and - 3.36% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25247.10, 48277.74, 6664.01, and 23830.99 respectively, with changes of - 2.48%, 1.27%, 0.53%, and - 1.82% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - **US Trade Policy**: US President Trump continued to send conciliatory signals in a recent interview, hinting that the door for negotiation remained open. The Trump administration is quietly relaxing multiple tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" in recent weeks and indicating willingness to exclude more products when other countries reach trade agreements with the US. This move comes before the Supreme Court's hearing on "reciprocal tariffs" in early November [2] - **HK Financial Official's View**: Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo - po stated that at the IMF and World Bank Group annual meetings in Washington, there were many concerns about the economic outlook. Business leaders and think - tanks in the US generally believed that stable Sino - US relations were crucial for both countries and the global economy. Many business friends expressed their hope to use Hong Kong as an entry point and springboard to explore the mainland and Asian markets [2] - **Fund Market**: As of October 19, 2025, the number of newly established funds this year reached 1163, exceeding the 1135 in 2024, indicating a strong recovery in the fund market. Among them, the number of newly established equity funds was 661, with an issuance scale of 339.396 billion yuan, accounting for 37.45% of the total issuance scale, reaching a 15 - year high since 2011. The total issuance scale this year was 906.273 billion yuan [2] - **ETF Market**: As of October 17, the net inflow of funds into the ETF market in October reached 99.161 billion yuan. Equity ETFs contributed 92.457 billion yuan, accounting for over 90% and becoming the core driving force for the inflow of funds into the ETF market. Additionally, the issuance of index funds was also very active, with over 50 index funds (including enhanced index funds and linked funds) planned for issuance this month [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **Silver Market**: The price of silver has been rising continuously this year, with a cumulative increase of nearly 70%. In Yongxing County, Hunan Province, a major silver - producing area in China, most stores are out of stock. A silver enterprise executive said that investment silver bars are in short supply, with the price rising from over 8000 yuan to over 13000 yuan [2] - **Banking Industry**: After the National Day holiday, banks have entered the final stage of the annual battle. Recently, banking financial institutions have held Q4 work meetings to summarize the performance of the first three quarters and plan the key work for Q4 to ensure the achievement of annual performance targets. Some small and medium - sized banks have even launched next year's "good start" campaign two months earlier than usual [2] - **Real - Estate Policy**: The Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau of Wuhan Economic and Technological Development Zone has introduced multiple measures, including purchase subsidies, group - buying incentives, and enterprise rewards. From October 1 to December 31, 2025, families purchasing their first new commercial housing in the Zhuankou, Zhuanyang, Junshan, and Hannan areas of the development zone with commercial loans can enjoy loan interest subsidies of 1%, 1.5%, and 2% of the initial loan amount, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan, 30,000 yuan, and 40,000 yuan per household respectively [2]

Core Conclusion - The market is transitioning from TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) to cyclical sectors such as resources, consumption, and manufacturing, marking a significant shift in investment strategy for the fourth quarter and the upcoming year [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for the Transition - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes in recent years led to significant capital outflows from China, estimated to exceed 16 trillion yuan, while domestic production factors remained stagnant, causing a decline in factor prices [6][7]. - China's counter-cyclical monetary policy, including interest rate cuts, has spurred capital expenditure in manufacturing, enhancing global competitiveness despite a superficial appearance of deflation and a bearish A-share market [2][3]. - The recent shift in the Federal Reserve's policy to lower interest rates is expected to accelerate capital inflows back to China, creating opportunities in consumer markets and high-end manufacturing [5][6]. Group 2: Six Supporting Logics for the Transition - Capital inflows are anticipated to break the negative cycle of "deflation—export—re-deflation," ushering in a "re-inflation" era for Chinese assets [7]. - High-end manufacturing is transitioning from a focus on building barriers ("high walls") to enhancing cash flow and operational efficiency ("storing grain") [8][10]. - Consumer spending is expected to shift from a late-cycle to an early-cycle driver of economic growth, supported by improved consumer confidence and capital inflows [11]. - Signals for a style switch in the fourth quarter include extreme relative performance of the CSI 2000 index, high TMT holdings by public funds, and concentrated trading in a few companies [13]. - Investment focus is shifting towards sectors characterized as "have," "new," and "high," including precious metals, new consumer trends, and high-end manufacturing [12][14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The anticipated capital inflows and re-inflation will support a recovery in consumer spending and manufacturing upgrades, positioning these sectors for growth [15].

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing significant "index differentiation, widespread individual stock declines, and capital rotation" characteristics [1] - The technology sector, represented by the Sci-Tech 50 index, has seen a substantial pullback with a single-day decline of 2.51%, while the ChiNext index surged by 2.34% [1] - Market funds are withdrawing from overvalued sectors like semiconductors and communication equipment, with a net outflow exceeding 10 billion yuan in a single day, and are flowing into battery and consumer sectors [1] Financial Sector - The financial sector holds a weight of nearly 24% in the Shanghai Composite Index, serving as a key support for the index [3] - Brokerage firms have shown outstanding performance in the first half of the year, with many institutions achieving net profit growth of several tens of percent or even doubling [3] - The banking sector's net interest margin has dropped to a historical low of 1.43%, with risks from real estate and technology sector loans not fully released [3] - The insurance sector is benefiting from policy support, such as the issuance of guidelines to boost consumption, which injects liquidity expectations into the industry [3] - Financial stocks are becoming the preferred choice for institutions to avoid risks, with the margin financing balance exceeding 2.05 trillion yuan by August 2025 [3] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector has a weight of approximately 16% in the CSI 300 index and is one of the areas with the largest recent declines [3] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption have been prioritized, with the "old-for-new" policy driving sales of 1.1 trillion yuan and issuing about 175 million subsidies [3] - The number of applications for the "old-for-new" subsidy for automobiles reached 4.12 million, with significant year-on-year growth in sales of home appliances and digital products [3] Specific Industries - In the food and beverage sector, there has been a net inflow of over 1.6 billion yuan, and the summer blockbuster film "Nezha 2" has surpassed 15 billion yuan in box office revenue, indicating a continued rise in service consumption [5] - The raw materials sector holds a weight of about 15.2% in the Shanghai Composite Index, with many sub-sectors undergoing critical capacity clearance [5] - The energy sector shows clear differentiation, with coal mining expanding due to high profits and a capital expenditure growth rate of 48%, while oil service engineering and cement industries are experiencing sufficient supply contraction [6][7] Market Dynamics - The current adjustment is fundamentally a shift of funds from overvalued technology sectors to areas with stronger certainty [9] - Technology stocks have a financing ratio of 58%, leading to significant short-term profit-taking pressure, while financial, consumer, and raw materials sectors benefit from low valuations and policy dividends [9] - Institutions like Galaxy Securities suggest that market style will shift from a "single bridge" to a "dual lane," with defensive sectors temporarily attracting funds during the technology sector's pullback [9]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a shift in driving logic rather than a simple switch between growth and value styles or sector performance, with macroeconomic improvements allowing economic recovery to spread across multiple industries [1] - Recent discussions on style switching have been misinterpreted; the focus should be on the underlying logic of market changes rather than merely high versus low performance [1][5] - Historical patterns indicate that as manufacturing activity improves, commodities like copper and aluminum are beginning to outperform gold, suggesting a potential recovery in manufacturing-related sectors [1] Group 2 - Domestic deflation concerns are easing as signals indicate a reversal in key cyclical factors, including improved export growth and profitability in the midstream manufacturing sector [2] - Recent financial data shows a mixed picture, with a slowdown in social financing growth but a rebound in new RMB loans, indicating potential for increased domestic consumption [2] - The overall inflation data remains weak, but structural improvements in PPI and core CPI suggest a recovery in midstream manufacturing profitability [2] Group 3 - There is an increasing expectation of larger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by concerns over the labor market rather than inflation, which may support economic stability [3] - The potential for increased manufacturing and real estate investment in the U.S. following interest rate cuts is significant, as historical trends show a rebound in these sectors post-cut [3] - The shift in focus from service sector strength to manufacturing investment could lead to increased demand for intermediate goods [3] Group 4 - The main logic driving market changes is the recovery of global commodity demand and China's exit from deflation, with opportunities emerging in upstream resources and capital goods [5] - As profitability recovers, sectors related to domestic demand, such as food and beverage, tourism, and insurance, are expected to present investment opportunities [5]

Group 1 - Hedge funds have shifted from a bearish to a bullish sentiment, marking the fastest buying of U.S. stocks in seven weeks, with a buying intensity ratio of 2.4:1 compared to short selling [2][3] - The total leverage ratio for fundamental long-short strategies has increased to 210.1%, indicating a rise in market aggressiveness, while the net leverage ratio remains at a median level of 52.7% [2][3] - Despite the increase in leverage, the long-short ratio has decreased to 1.67, suggesting that there is still a lack of overwhelming bullish sentiment among funds [2][3] Group 2 - The market is experiencing a significant style shift, with previously popular stocks facing sell-offs while neglected sectors, such as healthcare, are rebounding [3][4] - The "high volatility momentum stock" index has dropped 7% over the past five days, indicating a withdrawal of funds from high-risk stocks [3] - The healthcare sector has shown a notable rebound of 4%, marking its best weekly performance since October 2022, contrasting with declines in nuclear and previously winning stocks [3][4] Group 3 - There is a trend of large-cap tools being favored, while defensive sectors are being abandoned, with macro products like indices and ETFs seeing significant net inflows [4] - Individual stocks have experienced slight net selling over the past two weeks, with healthcare, consumer staples, utilities, and financials being the main sectors sold off [4] - Notably, hedge funds have made the largest withdrawal from defensive stocks in four months, particularly in the consumer staples sector, indicating a shift in investment strategy [4]