2025.11. 19 本文字数：1096，阅读时长大约2分钟 美国劳动力市场呈现更多疲态。劳工部数据显示，在截至10月18日的一周内，持续申领失业救济人 数增加1万人至195.7万人，较9月中旬的191.6万人明显上升。 由于政府停摆影响统计流程，劳工统计局未能正常完成10月就业调查。白宫警告，10月失业率大概 率无法公布。 High Frequency Economics首席经济学家卡尔·温伯格（Carl Weinberg）认为，持续申领人数的 变化并未显示"大规模裁员潮"，市场无需过度解读。他表示，"这应有助于缓解对12月降息的押注"。 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 美国股市周二（11月18日）继续下行，科技板块的进一步调整使大盘延续跌势，标普500指数连续 四个交易日收跌，为8月以来最长连跌纪录，围绕AI估值的担忧持续发酵。与此同时，银行与信贷领 域的压力同步升温，市场承压面扩大。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌498.50点，跌幅1.07%，收报46091.74点；标普500指数跌0.83%，至 6617.32点，为连续第四个交易日下跌；纳斯达克指数跌1.21%，至22432.85点。 盘中，道指一度跌近70 ...

Market Sentiment and Trading Behavior - The STAX index, a behavior-based model measuring client buying sentiment, rose to a seven-month high in October, indicating increased bullish sentiment among investors [2][3][4] - This bullish sentiment is the first observed since March 2021, driven primarily by AI stocks, particularly the MAG 7 stocks, which have higher beta compared to defensive stocks [4][5] - Over the last three months, the STAX indicator has outpaced the S&P 500 on a month-over-month percentage basis [3] Buying and Selling Trends - Investors are actively buying dips, with notable purchases in stocks like Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft, which experienced pullbacks of 4-5% during October [8][9] - Conversely, stocks such as AMD, Apple, and Tesla saw selling activity as they reached significant price increases, indicating a trend of buying on dips and selling on rips [10][11][12] Sector Allocation - There is a growing interest in allocating funds towards commodities, with 27-28% of clients looking to invest more in gold and around 24% in cryptocurrencies, indicating a diversification beyond equities [13][14] - Despite this diversification, stocks remain the primary focus for client portfolios, especially during market pullbacks [14] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is showing resilience with 4% GDP growth and consistent job creation, countering previous recession fears [21][22] - Corporate earnings have demonstrated double-digit gains for four consecutive quarters, with record profit margins despite challenges such as tariffs [20] AI Market Dynamics - Concerns about an AI bubble are present, but some stocks are deemed too expensive, such as Palantir, which is trading at 300 times earnings compared to Nvidia at 32 times [28][34] - Historical context suggests that current valuations are not indicative of a tech bubble, as the NASDAQ trades at 35 times earnings, significantly lower than previous tech bubbles [35][36]