【华通白银网1月7日】•银价突破78.70美元阻力位，涨至81.45美元，距离记录高位84.03美元价格已近在咫尺。 •投资者放弃了"逢低买入"的策略，转而采取积极的"追涨"的模式，期待银价达到三位数水平。 •周五的非农就业报告将决定银价是大幅上涨还是暂停涨势，这取决于劳动力市场的强劲程度。 银价突破78.70美元阻力位，有望创下84.03美元新高 继上周因剧烈收盘价反转顶部形态引发大规模获利了结后，交易者面临"逢低买入"或"追涨买入"的选择。由于周一未出现延续性抛售确认 反转形态，投资者迅速转向追涨模式，他们不愿等待回调至"更优"价格，转而展现出主动追涨的意愿。这种交易风格已持续近两月，投 资者正瞄准三位数的更高价位，因为上方已无实质性技术阻力。 供应短缺与对太阳能、电动汽车及人工智能基础设施的迅猛需求并存 从基本面看，白银市场长期仍受到太阳能板、电动汽车及人工智能相关基础设施巨大需求的支撑。然而，这种需求正因供应短缺而付出 高昂代价。当前的牛市行情由这两大因素共同驱动，这使得投资者无论在强势上涨还是短期回调时都乐于买入。他们对上涨潜力的信心 正逐渐超过对下行风险的担忧。但投资者需清醒认识到，随着价格攀升， ...

Core Viewpoint - Sprouts Farmers Market has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, rising fivefold in two years before a 55% drop from its peak, highlighting the volatility of growth stocks [1][2] Group 1: Company Growth and Strategy - Sprouts Farmers Market focuses on health-oriented grocery items that are more affordable than premium chains, aiming to provide a "farmers market" experience at scale [3][4] - The company operates 464 stores across 24 states and plans to achieve 10% annualized growth in store count, with 140 new locations already approved [6][9] - Sprouts has maintained strong profitability with rising margins, achieving 10% annualized sales growth over the last decade [7] Group 2: E-commerce and Product Development - E-commerce sales have grown from 1% of revenue in 2018 to 16% in 2025, reflecting a 21% increase compared to 2024, enhancing customer experience and order frequency [10] - Private-label goods now account for 25% of sales, up from 16% in 2021, contributing to higher margins and allowing for product innovations based on customer feedback [11][12] Group 3: Valuation and Share Buybacks - The company's stock is currently trading at a discounted valuation of 17 times free cash flow and 15 times earnings, despite a 13% sales growth this year [13][15] - Sprouts has been actively repurchasing shares, reducing the number of outstanding shares at an annualized rate of 4.5%, with nearly $1 billion remaining on its buyback authorization [15]

耐克(NKE.US)盘前涨2.4%，报58.71美元。消息面上，申报资料显示，在耐克上周五因逊于预期的财报 大跌超10%后，库克于本周一以平均每股58.97美元的价格购入5万股Nike股票，交易金额接近300万美 元。 此外，美银证券日前发表研究报告，重申对耐克的"买入"评级，指出第二财季业绩显示北美市场及跑步 品类表现向好，虽然目前对中国业务转型需时较长感到失望，但认为其他市场已出现改善迹象。(格隆 汇) ...

周一日本国债价格大幅下跌后，因市场可能存在逢低买入需求，日本国债价格在周二亚洲早盘交易时段 小幅上涨。周一10年期日本国债收益率收于2.080%，创下1999年2月以来的最高水平。SMBC的分析师 Ataru Okumura在近期的一份研究报告中表示，随着10年期日本国债收益率达到2%这一水平，在这一重 要关口是否会出现需求将是关注的焦点。这位高级日本利率策略师还补充道，如果未来12个月收益率的 涨幅能限制在2.2%的水平，那么在当前水平买入的策略所产生的回报，可能会高于日本央行往来账户 存款的利息。目前，40年期日本国债收益率下跌1个基点，至3.705%。 ...

Market Overview - Major U.S. indices declined, with the Dow Jones down 557.24 points (1.18%) to 46,590.24, the Nasdaq down 192.51 points (0.84%) to 22,708.07, and the S&P 500 down 61.7 points (0.92%) to 6,672.41 [1] - European indices also fell, with Germany's DAX30 down 283.38 points (1.19%) to 23,603.69, the UK's FTSE 100 down 22.72 points (0.23%) to 9,675.65, and France's CAC40 down 51.07 points (0.63%) to 8,119.02 [1] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin dropped over 2.5%, falling below $92,000, while Ethereum fell over 3%, dropping below $3,000 [3] Commodities - Crude oil prices decreased slightly, with NYMEX light crude for December delivery down $0.18 to $59.91 per barrel (0.3%) and Brent crude for January down $0.19 to $64.20 per barrel (0.3%) [2] - Gold prices fell by 0.97% to $4,045.87, with Goldman Sachs projecting gold prices could reach $4,900 by the end of 2026 due to increased central bank purchases and ongoing economic concerns [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports another rate cut in December, citing concerns over a weakening labor market and the impact of monetary policy on low-income consumers [5] - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson noted rising downside risks to employment but emphasized a cautious approach to policy adjustments, indicating a potential for further rate cuts or holding rates steady [9] Corporate News - Amazon is set to issue approximately $12 billion in high-rated corporate bonds, marking its first such issuance in three years, with proceeds potentially used for debt repayment, acquisitions, and investments [10] - The EU is considering regulatory measures for major cloud service providers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, following significant service disruptions that highlighted market dependency on a few providers [11] Analyst Ratings - Jefferies raised the target price for Sohu (SOHU.US) from $18 to $20 [12] - Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro increased Tesla's (TSLA.US) target price from $483 to $508, citing advancements in the company's autonomous driving and ride-hailing products [13]

Core Insights - Analyst Adam Button indicates that since the "tariff day" low, the market has shown a pattern of stabilizing and then buying on dips whenever there is a downturn [1] - Recent market behavior has been inconsistent since late October, with momentum appearing and disappearing intermittently [1] - Concerns are raised regarding anxiety triggered by large-scale cloud computing companies ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, as well as expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [1] - Despite Powell's statement on October 30 suggesting that a rate cut in December is unlikely, the market did not react with selling, which was expected [1] - The market took two weeks to price in the likelihood of a December rate cut, which has now decreased to 36% [1] - The recent market decline appears to lack any specific news event as a catalyst [1]

Group 1 - Retail investors' confidence in the U.S. stock market's rebound is gradually weakening, with a noticeable decline in their enthusiasm for buying low-priced stocks [1][2] - Retail investors have been a significant driving force behind the market rebound this year, helping the market recover from sell-offs and reach new highs [1] - Vanda Research reported that retail investors are no longer exhibiting the strong confidence seen earlier this year, which previously fueled significant stock market increases [1][2] Group 2 - Vanda Research noted that retail investors' purchasing volume was the weakest since May and among the lowest for 2025, indicating a shift in market behavior [2] - There has been a trend where retail investors are increasingly directing their funds towards more speculative stocks, such as uranium mining companies and meme stocks [2] - Since September, retail investors have shown a decline in purchasing individual stocks and have shifted towards broader market ETFs, although recent data indicates a reduction in ETF purchases as well [2][3] Group 3 - Other firms, including Bank of America Securities, have also observed signs of diminishing interest from retail investors, noting that they have become net sellers for the first time since late September [3] - Despite the cautious sentiment among retail investors, some analysts believe it is premature to issue alarms regarding their behavior, as their sentiment remains in a positive zone [4] - Analysts emphasize that without the support of retail investors, any market rebound would become increasingly challenging [4]

上周美股全线回落，纳斯达克综合指数下跌超3%，创近七个月来最大跌幅。根据美国银行发布的最新 数据，面对近期科技股因估值担忧引发的指数调整，机构投资者正借鉴 "散户资金"的操作策略选择逢 低买入，而个人投资者则陷入犹豫。在市场板块轮动的背景下，关注估值风险的讨论依然火热。 机构入场抄底 美国银行股票交易部门数据显示，上周交易所交易基金（ETF）的净买入额达43亿美元，创下2022年12 月以来的单周最高纪录。 标普全球在周二发布的一份研究报告中指出，衡量市场情绪转变最显著的指标，是主要科技子板块的空 头头寸数据。目前，北美半导体及半导体设备品类下公司的空头利率已达0.285%，为今年以来的最高 水平。 美银全球研究部的分析师团队在周报告中指出，这一买入规模足以抵消个股的资金流出。但与近期趋势 不同的是，此次大举买入的主体是美银的机构客户 ——他们在此前一周还处于卖出状态；而今年以来 在股市回调期间始终稳步买入的个人投资者，此次却并未入场。事实上，这是自9月底以来，美银零售 客户首次在股市回调中选择观望。 近期，投资者似乎陷入两难：一方面担心错失AI相关投资机会，另一方面又忧虑市场可能出现类似互 联网泡沫时期的风 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the U.S. stock market, particularly the Nasdaq Composite Index, which fell over 3%, marking its largest drop in nearly seven months. Institutional investors are adopting a "buy the dip" strategy, while retail investors are hesitant to enter the market [3][4]. Institutional Buying - U.S. Bank's trading department reported a net inflow of $4.3 billion into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) last week, the highest weekly total since December 2022. This buying activity was primarily driven by institutional clients, contrasting with retail investors who chose to remain on the sidelines during the market pullback [5][6]. Technology Sector Sentiment - The enthusiasm for technology stocks remains high among institutional investors, with a significant portion of fund managers still bullish on major tech companies. A recent survey indicated that 39% of managers are long on the seven largest tech firms, making it the second most crowded trade after gold [6][7]. Valuation Concerns - Recent news, such as SoftBank's reduction of Nvidia shares and CoreWeave's lowered performance expectations, has reignited concerns over the rapid valuation increases of tech companies. The short interest in North American semiconductor stocks has reached its highest level of the year at 0.285% [7][8]. Market Dynamics - Investors are caught between the fear of missing out on AI-related opportunities and the risk of a potential market bubble reminiscent of the internet bubble era. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has shown strength, reaching a record high for the year, indicating a rotation in market sectors [8][9]. Recommendations from Analysts - Wells Fargo's investment research suggests reducing exposure to AI-themed tech stocks due to overly optimistic market expectations. The firm has downgraded the rating of the S&P 500 Information Technology sector from "bullish" to "neutral" [9][10]. Future Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that the S&P 500 index could reach 7,600 points by the end of 2026, representing an 11% increase from current levels. However, they caution that high stock concentration in the market poses a significant uncertainty for future returns [10].

机构投资者正在逢低买入ETF。 上周美股全线回落，纳斯达克综合指数下跌超3%，创近七个月来最大跌幅。根据美国银行发布的最新 数据，面对近期科技股因估值担忧引发的指数调整，机构投资者正借鉴 "散户资金"的操作策略选择逢 低买入，而个人投资者则陷入犹豫。在市场板块轮动的背景下，关注估值风险的讨论依然火热。 近期，投资者似乎陷入两难：一方面担心错失AI相关投资机会，另一方面又忧虑市场可能出现类似互 联网泡沫时期的风险。随着联邦政府重启将近，市场开始呈现出板块轮动的特征，以传统经济为代表的 道琼斯工业指数强势上扬，周三录得年内第17个收盘纪录新高。 富国银行投资研究所表示，当前市场对人工智能（AI）主题科技股的预期过高，这使得该板块容易出 现不及预期的情况。建议减持AI主题科技股，并选择其他 "更具优势"的投资标的。该机构已将标普500 信息技术板块（英伟达、微软、博通等与AI交易密切相关的知名企业均属于该板块）的评级从 "看 好"下调至 "中性"。 自2008年金融危机以来，"逢低买入"策略为投资者带来了稳定的短期收益，而今年这一策略的回报表现 尤为强劲。 以霍尔（Jill Carey Hall）为首的美银全球分析 ...