热情未退，方向已变 文章指出，当前基金经理对风险资产的整体热情与2024年底特朗普胜选后基本持平，投资者并非陷入悲 观，而是热情的指向发生了根本性转变。 2024年底，市场兴奋点聚焦于新一届美国政府的去监管与财政刺激预期，彼时美元走强、美股领涨，美 国被视为将从全球其他发达经济体"抽走"增长动能的引擎。然而进入特朗普第二任期第二年，这一叙事 已悄然瓦解。 美股自去年12月底以来在异常狭窄区间内震荡，既未大跌，也未有效上涨。值得注意的是，即便特朗普 的权力受到限制（例如上周其在关税诉讼案中败诉），美国市场也未能借势反弹，这一细节表明，市场 的冷淡并非单纯源于政策担忧，而是更深层的资金流向已经改变。 欧洲迎来"睡美人"觉醒时刻 据美银美林对投资者的定期调查显示，当前全球投资者对欧元区资产的超配比例已创历史纪录。在欧洲 专项调查中，超过三分之一的受访者表示持有高于基准的欧盟股票仓位，而三个月前这一比例仅为 9%。与此同时，净22%的受访者表示对美国股票持低于基准的配置，而2025年底这一比例仅为6%。 特朗普重返白宫曾点燃全球投资者对美国资产的热情，但这股热情正在以惊人的速度逆转。全球资金正 系统性地回避美国市场， ...

截至东京股市收盘，日经指数上涨2.2%，至58，583.12点，创历史新高。 东证指数上涨0.7%，至3843.16点。 日本股市日经指数再创新高，此前有消息称高市早苗政府提名两位再通胀主义者进入日本央行政策委员 会。此外，由于人工智能AI担忧缓解，科技股反弹也提振了市场情绪。 然而，由于市场对近期加息的预期下降，银行股限制了东证指数的整体涨幅。 日本股市日经指数再创新高，此前有消息称高市早苗政府提名两位再通胀主义者进入日本央行政策委员 会。此外，由于人工智能AI担忧缓解，科技股反弹也提振了市场情绪。 然而，由于市场对近期加息的预期下降，银行股限制了东证指数的整体涨幅。 截至东京股市收盘，日经指数上涨2.2%，至58，583.12点，创历史新高。 东证指数上涨0.7%，至3843.16点。 该指数的1662支成分股中，917支上涨，686支下跌，59支持平。 责任编辑：李肇孚 该指数的1662支成分股中，917支上涨，686支下跌，59支持平。 上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排面要拉满，新号启幸运>> 上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排面要拉满，新号启幸运>> 责任编辑：李肇孚 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 一场庞大的资本迁徙正在华尔街上演。机构数据显示，美国投资者正以至少16年来最快速度从本土股市 撤资并加速配置海外资产。外媒评论称，此举标志着曾主导全球市场的"买入美国"（buy America）策 略正在向"告别美国"（bye America）转变。 六个月撤资750亿美元 路透社近日援引伦敦证券交易所集团/理柏（LSEG/Lipper）的数据报道称，过去六个月内，美国投资者 从本土股票产品中撤资约750亿美元，仅2026年前八周就撤出520亿美元，为2010年以来年初八周内资金 流出最多的一次。 这一资金流向转变正值美元对其他货币汇率走弱之际，这原本会提高美国投资者购买海外资产的成本。 但资金依然流出的现实表明，过去一年，部分国际投资者通过减持美国资产进行多样化配置的操作，如 今此类操作正逐渐获得美国投资者更广泛的认同。 高盛的机构交易部门称，本月迄今，对冲基金一直在以自去年3月以来的最快速度净抛售美国股票。此 外，美国银行客户上周抛售了美国股票，单只股票的资金流出达到83亿美元，为2008年有记录以来的第 三高。另据美国主动投资管理 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong performance on the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, with all three major indices closing higher, driven by resource sectors and policy expectations as the Two Sessions approach [3][15]. Market Performance - On February 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.87% to 4117 points, the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.36% to 14291 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.99% to 3308 points [3][15]. - The total trading volume for the day reached 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 219.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, indicating heightened market activity [3][15]. Sector Analysis - Resource sectors, particularly oil and gas, led the market rally, with multiple oil and gas ETFs hitting the daily limit [4][16]. - In contrast, the film and media sector saw significant declines, with related ETFs dropping over 7% due to disappointing box office performance during the Spring Festival [4][17]. ETF Market Insights - Oil and gas ETFs showed remarkable performance, with several reaching the daily limit and an average increase of around 10% [5][18]. - The Standard & Poor's Oil and Gas ETF recorded a trading volume of 1.117 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 152.76%, reflecting strong market interest in this sector [5][18]. Investment Themes - Analysts suggest that resource products and technology sectors may become the main themes for the spring market, driven by policy expectations and industry trends [3][11]. - The focus on stable growth policies ahead of the Two Sessions is expected to benefit infrastructure and resource sectors [11][24]. Market Sentiment - Despite the overall market rally, there is a notable divergence in sector performance, with technology stocks experiencing mixed results [21][23]. - Southbound capital flows showed a "buy the dip" strategy, with net purchases of 3.131 billion Hong Kong dollars on February 24, indicating continued interest in the market despite fluctuations [22][24].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling over 700 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices both declined by approximately 1% [2][3]. Economic Impact - The market volatility is attributed to new tariffs announced by President Trump, which increased the global tariff rate from 10% to 15%, causing uncertainty regarding inflation and global growth [4][7]. - Following the tariff announcement, gold prices surged by about 2%, and silver prices rose by approximately 3% due to heightened market concerns [4]. Corporate Responses - Major technology stocks showed weakness, with OpenAI announcing plans to invest around $600 billion in infrastructure by 2030, a reduction from a previously stated commitment of over $1.4 trillion [8]. - Notably, Novo Nordisk's stock plummeted over 15% after its weight-loss drug CagriSema showed less effective weight loss results compared to Eli Lilly's competing drug, which saw its stock rise nearly 4% [9][10]. Trade Relations - Trump's recent threats to impose higher tariffs on countries attempting to exploit trade agreements highlight ongoing tensions in U.S. trade policy, particularly following a Supreme Court ruling that limited his ability to set tariff rates unilaterally [15][16]. - The European Union expressed concerns over the potential impact of these tariffs on transatlantic trade relations, emphasizing the need for transparency from the U.S. government regarding future actions [8].

2026 年全球市场正处于从低息、全球化的稳定格局向货币、财政、地缘政治和科技多领域快速变革的结构性转型阶段，最终新秩序尚未明朗，结构性通 胀、高政府债务、供应链重组等因素重塑全球经济，传统宏观经济关系失效，投资需更注重情境分析与灵活应变。整体而言，报告对 2026 年经济前景持正 面态度，国家主义产业政策、财政支出将推动资本支出周期，发达经济体（英国除外）增长加速，亚洲内需与改革奠定良好基础，各资产类别与区域市场呈 现差异化发展特征。 在焦点主题领域，人工智能领域建议采取 "杠铃策略"，短期布局数据中心价值链的基础设施推动者，长期关注代理式、实体人工智能等新兴领域的应用 者，当前人工智能基建融资方式转变，资本支出将持续增长。数字资产方面，比特币市值突破 2 万亿，价格波幅收窄、机构投资者入场使其逐步具备财富累 积工具属性，小比例配置或能提升投资组合表现，但仍需警惕高波动风险。水资源稀缺成为全球重要风险，人口增长、气候问题加剧供需矛盾，农业、制造 业受显著影响，水务基建、节水科技、循环用水相关领域迎来投资机遇。 资产配置上，股票市场需精选标的，美国科技股受人工智能驱动但估值高企，欧元区盈利预期偏乐观，日本企业 ...

美国股市正呈现出一种罕见的分裂格局：标普500指数在表面上波澜不惊，但指数平静的背后，个股剧 烈波动正困扰着投资者并预示着更多动荡。这种指数与个股波动率的极端背离，正在重塑市场格局并考 验投资者的风险管理能力。 据彭博社周六报道，巴克莱数据显示，标普500指数今年以来的交易区间创下1960年代以来最窄纪录， 但个股波动率却达到大盘指数的约7倍，这一差距为至少30年来最大。人工智能带来的颠覆性担忧正在 引发各板块间的剧烈轮动，投资者试图判断哪些行业将成为AI冲击的下一个目标。 人工智能技术的突破曾是市场看涨的动力，如今却频繁引发不确定性。这一转变正在重塑投资逻辑， 使"选股"从寻找机会变为"避免崩盘"。 巴克莱美国股票衍生品研究主管Stefano Pascale将这种分化的波动性归因于投资者试图判断哪些板块可 能成为AI颠覆的下一个目标，以及高估值和高利率环境的共同作用。 JonesTrading机构服务首席市场策略师Michael O'Rourke表示："这是一个选股者的市场，但不是传统意 义上的。如今，选股就是要避免崩盘。"他认为，这种环境表明投资者对大盘的乐观前景正在出现裂 痕，一旦坏消息来袭，他们更容易 ...

马年春节，全球市场最大"黑天鹅"落地，炸出了贵金属的"超级大红包"！ 此次最高法院的裁决，强有力封杀了总统无序加税的路径，也算是一个股票市场对于"特朗普全球关税"风险因子再次降 权的重要信号，成为直接推动当日美股三大股指实现低开高走的反弹导火索。 此次最高法院的裁决，给出了一锤定音的结论：IEEPA法案通篇未明确授权总统征收关税，其核心授权仅为紧急状态下 的经济封锁与金融管制，特朗普援引该法案实施全球关税，本质上侵犯了国会专属的征税权，违反"重大问题原则"。 首席大法官罗伯茨在判决书中明确强调，总统若要行使征收关税这类影响全国经济的重大权力，必须有国会的明确授 权，而本案中，特朗普政府无法提供任何相关依据。 值得注意的是，这一裁决并非完全剥夺特朗普的关税权力，仅封杀了IEEPA这一"单边加税捷径"，其依据《1962年贸易 扩展法》第232条、《1974年贸易法》第301条征收的关税，仍继续有效。 关税枷锁的解除，直接推动美股实现低开高走的强势反弹，行情表现直观印证利好逻辑。 当地时间2月20日，美国联邦最高法院以6:3的关键投票，作出里程碑式裁决：正式认定特朗普政府实施的大规模全球关 税，超出总统法定权限，相 ...

20日美股大型科技股与存储芯片股反弹 当地时间周五上午，美国最高法院公布裁决，认定美国《国际紧急经济权力法》没有授权总统征收大规 模关税，意味着特朗普政府关税政策受到重大挫折。美国商务部同一天公布的初步数据显示，美国2025 年第四季度经济增速为1.4%，显著低于市场预期的2.8%；美国2025年经济增速为2.2%，低于2024年的 2.8%。尽管经济数据利空，但投资者看好关税壁垒可能被消除对美国企业盈利状况的提振，美国三大 股指周五集体收涨。截至收盘，道指涨0.47%，标普500指数涨0.69%，纳指涨0.90%。 本周，美股从上周的AI股和软件股抛售潮中反弹，纽约股市三大股指全部累计上涨。其中，道指涨 0.25%，标普500指数上涨1.07%，纳指上涨1.51%。 20日国际金价银价显著上涨 纽约白银期价本周涨超5.6% 美国最高法院的裁决可能迫使联邦政府进一步举债，引发投资者对美债信用的担忧，进而增持黄金以对 冲风险。此外，周五的最新数据显示，美国去年12月核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数同比上涨 3.0%，涨幅高出市场预期。通胀压力反弹叠加经济增长放缓，引发市场对美国经济陷入滞胀的担忧， 黄金的"抗 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that while the economic cycle is still early, some market valuations are too high, predicting high volatility in AI and tech stocks, with funds continuing to flow into "cheap" cyclical assets [1][2]. Economic Data and Market Performance - Economic data remains strong, supporting the performance of cyclical assets, with the US ISM index rising and labor market stabilizing [3]. - Globally, developed market manufacturing PMI reached its highest level in a year, and emerging market manufacturing PMI also increased month-on-month [4]. - Goldman Sachs indicates that the market is underestimating the growth outlook for the US economy, which is projected to grow at 2.5% for the year, suggesting room for upward adjustments in cyclical expectations [5]. Sector Rotation and Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to embrace cyclical assets benefiting from economic recovery while being cautious of overvalued AI and large tech stocks [2]. - Emerging market stocks, the Australian dollar, copper, and capital goods and materials sectors in the US have seen significant gains, while previously leading AI and tech themes have experienced volatility [2]. - The market is shifting from expensive tech stocks to cheaper exposures, particularly in underperforming sectors, leading to "value" outperforming "growth" [6]. AI Sector Dynamics - The AI sector is facing increased volatility, with Goldman Sachs acknowledging the real productivity gains from AI but noting that the market has overvalued these benefits, particularly for companies directly involved in the AI boom [6][9]. - Concerns are rising regarding cash flow consumption by large cloud service providers and potential disruptions to software providers and certain financial/real estate sectors [8]. Currency and Global Market Trends - The US dollar has weakened due to tariff concerns and worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with the relative underperformance of US stocks compared to Europe and Japan prompting discussions on diversification and hedging [12]. - Currencies that align with global cyclical views, such as the Australian dollar, South African rand, Chilean peso, and Brazilian real, have become the biggest gainers against the US dollar [13]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Goldman Sachs suggests continuing to bet on cyclical assets while selecting those with relatively cheap valuations, as there is still room for upward adjustments in growth expectations [15]. - The combination of ongoing volatility in AI themes and the potential for periodic spillover into index-level volatility supports a diversified equity portfolio and healthy non-US exposure, including emerging markets [16].