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建材周专题 2025W30:政治局会议再提反内卷,特种布关注北美云商资本开支加速
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-05 11:05
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need to combat "involution" and promote continuous policy advancement, focusing on optimizing market competition and regulating chaotic enterprise competition [5][21] - North American cloud service capital expenditure is accelerating, leading to sustained high demand for specialty electronic fabrics [6] - Cement prices are experiencing a narrowing decline, while glass inventory continues to decrease [7] - Recommendations include focusing on specialty fiberglass and the African supply chain, with leading companies being the main investment theme for the year [9] Summary by Sections Political and Economic Context - The political bureau meeting on July 30 highlighted the importance of advancing the construction of a unified national market and optimizing market competition [5] - The report analyzes the profitability of various industries, indicating that photovoltaic glass and carbon fiber are at the bottom, while cement and fiberglass are slightly profitable [5] North American Cloud Services - Recent quarterly reports from Microsoft and Meta show that AI is driving revenue and performance growth, with capital expenditures continuing to accelerate [6] - The electronic fabric industry is on a clear upward trend, with domestic leaders rapidly achieving domestic substitution [6] Cement and Glass Market - The domestic cement market is affected by adverse weather conditions, with an average shipment rate of 44.5%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The average national cement price is 344.84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97 yuan/ton month-on-month and 42.74 yuan/ton year-on-year [26] - The glass market is beginning to digest social inventory, with production and sales rates indicating a need for policy changes to influence market dynamics [8][38] Recommendations - Specialty fabrics: Core leader Zhongcai Technology is recommended due to high demand from AI and significant supply barriers [9] - African supply chain: Keda Manufacturing is recommended as a local leader with advantages in production, channels, and brand [9] - The report suggests that the 2025 consumption of building materials is expected to see upward demand and structural optimization [9]