战略布局特种电子布，产业化进程稳步推进。终端算力需求提升推动PCB-CCL 材料整体升级，特种电 子布在价值量和需求量上大幅增长。性能方面，Low Dk 一代、二代及石英Q 布在Dk 和Df 指标上持续 优化，附加值提升；同时，下游M7、M8、M9覆铜板的放量加速了对特种电子布的需求。估算2026 年 特种电子布市场空间约178亿，YOY+205%。公司加大高端电子级玻纤的研发与产线投入，已具备薄布 与超薄布的研发及量产能力；同时，低介电、低膨胀产品的开发、验证与导入进程正稳步推进，技术壁 垒持续强化。公司作为全球玻纤行业龙头，研发体系及成本管控优势显著，为后续产业化放量提供有力 支撑。 粗纱景气向上，波折前行。供给端，预计26 年供给增速为5.8%，较25 年增速进一步减缓；同时考虑到 各家厂商或通过对新线延迟点火、老线提前冷修控制产能合理增加，因此不排除实际供给增速低于测算 值。需求端，考虑到2025 年风电招标规模仍维持在高位，预计风电纱需求仍保持较强韧性，预计26 年 粗纱需求增速4.1%。价格端，25 年9 月玻纤工业协会联合中国巨石等骨干企业共同发布《关于玻纤及 制品行业反对"内卷式"竞争、共同建 ...

北京市优化调整住房限购政策，《求是》强调地产政策不能采取添油战术 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 周期品方向：反内卷仍是主线。对于水泥及玻璃行业而言，在需求下行的背景下，供给能否有效去化是下 一阶段观察的重点。目前水泥和浮法玻璃的行业平均盈利均已跌落至盈亏平衡线之下，供给端博弈是淡季 的主线。其中，Q1通常是玻璃产能冷修的高峰，冷修减产的幅度将直接决定3-4月份浮法玻璃价格修复的 空间。玻纤板块盈利相对较好，需求端依旧稳步增长，26H1下游如风电等场景对粗纱需求有支撑，而新供 给投放主要在26H2，判断有阶段性提价的可能性。新领域方向：1）电子布。AI供应链的高景气仍是26H1 最有确定性的方向。特种电子布（LowDK一代二代、石英布）需求弹性较大，且短期 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Views - Focus on the expectation of glass cold repairs and emphasize high-quality leading companies in consumer building materials [5][6] - Cement prices continue to decline, while glass inventory has slightly decreased month-on-month [7][8] - The real estate policy outlook is improving, suggesting a focus on high-quality leading companies in consumer building materials [5][6] Summary by Sections Cement - National cement prices have continued to decline, with a current average price of 355.00 yuan/ton, down 0.65 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 77.10 yuan/ton year-on-year [26] - The cement market is entering the off-season, with a national shipment rate of approximately 45%, down 0.3 percentage points month-on-month and down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [7][26] - The northern market is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand, while some southern regions show slight recovery [7][25] Glass - The domestic float glass market prices have stabilized after a decline, with a current average price of 60.59 yuan/weight box, down 0.59 yuan/weight box month-on-month and down 15.51 yuan/weight box year-on-year [39] - The production capacity of float glass has slightly decreased, with 218 out of 283 production lines currently in operation, and a daily melting capacity of 156,155 tons [8][36] - Inventory levels in key monitored provinces have decreased, with a total inventory of 59.32 million weight boxes, down 730,000 weight boxes month-on-month [38][39] Consumer Building Materials - High-quality leading companies in consumer building materials are expected to have bottom value, with recommendations for companies like SanKeTree, TuBaoBao, and WeiXing New Materials [6] - From a cyclical bottom and structural optimization perspective, companies in waterproofing and coatings are recommended due to significant supply exits and increased market share for leading companies [6] - If market conditions improve, the expected price performance ranking is waterproofing > coatings > pipes/hardware/gypsum board [6] Special Fabrics - Attention is drawn to the opportunities in AI special fabrics after recent adjustments, with domestic leaders like ZhongCai Technology benefiting from domestic substitution trends [9]

Summary of Glass Fiber Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The glass fiber industry is expected to see a recovery in 2025, driven by significant demand from wind power installations, which are projected to increase by 138 GW globally, alongside strong performance in the electric vehicle and home appliance markets. However, demand from the construction sector has decreased to around 20% of total demand [1][5] - Exports saw a slight decline in the first three quarters of the year, but there was improvement in September. The demand for roving is expected to remain resilient in 2026, with stable growth in automotive demand and sustained high demand in wind power [1][5] Key Insights and Arguments - The net production capacity of domestic roving has increased by approximately 300,000 tons, with leading companies expected to maintain good profitability levels for high-end products. Overall, roving prices are anticipated to remain stable [1][2] - New production capacity for ordinary electronic yarn is expected to come primarily from Jushi Huai'an and International Composites, totaling around 100,000 tons, but the net increase will be limited. The supply-demand balance for ordinary electronic yarn is expected to remain favorable, with prices potentially stabilizing or even increasing [1][2] - Specialty electronic fabrics are benefiting from advancements in AI and high-speed communication technologies, with low dielectric and low thermal expansion coefficient materials seeing significant demand. These materials are widely used in AI servers, high-end switches, and Apple devices [1][7] Market Dynamics - The demand for low thermal expansion electronic fabrics is projected to increase significantly, with Nitto Denko planning to triple its production capacity by the end of next year, indicating a substantial market opportunity [3][9] - Domestic companies such as China National Materials, Honglu Technology, and Jushi have a leading advantage in the specialty electronic fabric sector and are actively expanding production and achieving technological breakthroughs [3][4][14] Price and Profitability Outlook - Prices for specialty electronic fabrics are expected to remain high or even increase, driven by strong demand for second-generation and low thermal expansion products. The market has high expectations for the price and volume of specialty electronic fabrics [11][12] - The overall profitability of the industry is expected to remain good, with limited new production capacity and stable prices anticipated for traditional glass fiber products in 2026 [15] Competitive Landscape - The industry has a few key players capable of mass-producing specialty electronic fabrics, primarily from Japan and Taiwan, but domestic companies are rapidly catching up. For instance, China National Materials plans to significantly increase its production capacity, while Honglu Technology and others are also expanding [14] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with domestic firms expected to gradually increase their global market share [14] Future Outlook - The overall industry outlook for 2026 is positive, with traditional glass fiber demand showing growth potential and limited new capacity. The increase in GB300 shipments is expected to drive significant demand for second-generation and low thermal expansion products, contributing to a favorable industry environment [15]

前言 ②中国掌控全球52%资源，2025年开采指标再降6.5%，这种战略性金属供给持续收紧，年内涨幅已 超过120%！机构建议聚焦这两家产量第一梯队公司。 点击付费阅读，解锁市场最强音，把握投资机会！ 券商研报信息复杂？机构调研数据过时？屡屡错失投资机会？那是你不会挖！想知道哪份研报有用？什 么时候该看？《研报金选》满足你！每日拆解热门产业链或核心公司，快市场一步的投研思维+严苛的 研报选择标准+几近偏执的超预期挖掘，游资私募都在用！ 【今日速览】 ①24年三轮提价已落地，这个行业盈利已出现明显修复！2026年产能增幅有限，供需格局优化支撑 价格中枢继续上移，还有特种电子布受益AI高景气、量价弹性与盈利释放更可观； ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the building materials industry [1]. Core Views - The traditional fiberglass industry is experiencing a price recovery and improved profitability, while the specialty fabric sector is benefiting from high demand driven by AI technology [4]. - The report highlights the structural recovery of the fiberglass industry in 2025, with a focus on the resilience of demand in key sectors such as wind energy and automotive [3][4]. Summary by Sections Traditional Fiberglass - The industry is set to undergo three rounds of slight price recovery starting in 2024, with a structural rebound in profitability expected in 2025. The demand for roving is driven by high growth in wind power installations and positive trends in new energy vehicles and home appliances, although construction and export demand remain weak [3]. - By the end of 2025, the domestic roving capacity is expected to increase by 460,000 tons per year, but the growth rate of capacity is anticipated to slow down due to more rational competition among companies and reduced capital expenditures in recent years [3][4]. - The profitability of listed fiberglass companies is projected to improve significantly, with a reported net profit of 4.79 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 49% [9]. Specialty Electronic Fabrics - The demand for specialty electronic fabrics is experiencing a boom due to the rapid development of AI and high-frequency communication technologies. The strong growth in AI computing power is driving the demand for high-performance PCBs and chip packaging substrates [3][4]. - The global AI server shipment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 28.8% from 2022 to 2026, with significant increases in the demand for low dielectric electronic fabrics that meet the high-performance requirements of AI servers and switches [3][52]. - Domestic companies are rapidly catching up in the specialty electronic fabric market, with significant capacity expansions planned. For instance, China National Materials Technology plans to expand its production capacity by 94 million meters annually by 2025 [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China National Materials Technology, Honghe Technology, China Jushi, Feilihua, and International Composites, which are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in the fiberglass industry and the growth in specialty electronic fabrics [4].

Group 1: Cement Industry - The cement production in China for Q1-Q3 2025 decreased by 5% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline, and the annual production is expected to be around 1.73 billion tons, which is a 30% drop from the peak in 2014 [15][32] - The SW cement manufacturing industry revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 was 252.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, with a sales net profit margin of 3.3%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024 [32][33] - The future support for domestic cement prices mainly depends on the optimization process on the supply side, with a focus on completing the target of limiting overproduction by the end of the year [35][45] Group 2: Glass Industry - The flat glass production in China for Q1-Q3 2025 was 730 million weight cases, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, with prices continuing to decline [57] - The SW glass manufacturing industry achieved a total revenue of 34.4 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, with a sales net profit margin of 0.6% [74] - The overall profitability of the glass manufacturing industry is under pressure, with major companies like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group experiencing significant declines in net profit margins [74][78] Group 3: Fiberglass Industry - The fiberglass manufacturing industry saw a significant recovery in profitability in Q1-Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 49.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, and a sales net profit margin of 10.8%, up 4.3 percentage points from 2024 [83][84] - The demand for high-performance electronic fabrics is expected to continue growing due to advancements in AI and high-frequency communication technologies [84][89] - Companies like Zhongcai Technology and Honghe Technology are recommended for their focus on high-end products and significant growth in revenue and profit margins [89][94] Group 4: Consumer Building Materials - The transaction volume of commercial housing and second-hand housing prices in China continued to decline, but the rate of decline has narrowed [2] - The sales of waterproof materials and coatings have shown significant improvement compared to 2024, with companies like Sankeshu and Hanhai Group recommended for investment [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [4][23]. Core Insights - The company has significantly improved its performance, with a 29.1% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 21.7 billion yuan, and a 143.2% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 1.48 billion yuan [6][7]. - The demand for specialty electronic fabrics is expected to grow, with the company planning to raise up to 4.48 billion yuan for projects aimed at increasing production capacity [7]. - The company is benefiting from industry self-regulation efforts to combat "involution" in the glass fiber sector, which is anticipated to lead to price recovery and improved profit margins [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the company reported a revenue of 25,889 million yuan, with a projected revenue of 30,214 million yuan for 2025E, reflecting a 26% year-on-year growth [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 892 million yuan in 2024A to 2,039 million yuan in 2025E, representing a 129% growth [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.53 yuan in 2024A to 1.22 yuan in 2025E [4]. Industry Outlook - The wind power sector is experiencing robust growth, with a 22.1% year-on-year increase in installed capacity as of August 2025, which is expected to positively impact the company's blade business [7]. - The company is also advancing in the lithium battery separator market, with a 43% year-on-year increase in domestic separator material shipments, indicating strong demand [7]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on cost reduction and technological advancements in its separator business, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the long term [7].

Summary of China Jushi Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Jushi - **Industry**: Fiberglass manufacturing Key Points Strategic Shifts - China Jushi has shifted its competitive strategy from price competition to collaborative price increases, focusing on cash flow preservation and high-end transformation, particularly in the wind power sand and thermoplastic sand sectors [2][4][19] - The company aims to capture a 15% market share in the specialty electronic fabric market by the end of 2025, providing significant potential for value reassessment [2][5] Execution Capability - There are mixed opinions in the market regarding China Jushi's execution capabilities, with concerns about its strategic implementation. However, the company has demonstrated strong execution through breakthroughs in drug-holding technology and rapid advancements in the wind power sand sector, achieving the world's leading production capacity [2][6] Cost Advantages - China Jushi possesses significant cost advantages in the specialty electronic fabric sector, with production costs for drug-holding technology being 30-50% lower than traditional methods. The company excels in technological breakthroughs, which may lead to competitive advantages in this field [2][7][16][17] Market Dynamics - The fiberglass industry traditionally relies on cyclical growth, with product prices serving as a key indicator of market conditions. China Jushi's stock price is primarily driven by changes in profit expectations related to pricing, with valuation turning points typically leading price movements [2][8][9] - The demand for wind power installations is expected to surge in 2025, with optimistic prospects for fiberglass yarn exports and increased penetration of photovoltaic frames, contributing to potential demand growth [2][10] Financial Projections - Projected net profit for China Jushi is approximately 3.66 billion yuan in 2025 and 4.35 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 50% and 19%, respectively. The corresponding PE ratios are 19x and 16x, indicating room for valuation improvement [4][23] Supply and Demand Outlook - Demand growth for fiberglass is expected to be stable, with projected year-on-year growth rates of 6.4% in 2025 and 6.3% in 2026. Supply pressures are anticipated to ease as some manufacturers begin maintenance plans [10][11][13] - The average price of ordinary 2,400 TEX winding yarn has reached around 3,600 yuan, with potential for further price increases as industry leaders may initiate price recovery [14] Share Buyback Plan - The company announced a plan to repurchase 30-40 million shares, representing 0.7-1% of total shares, to support employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives. This reflects management's strong confidence in the company's long-term value and new business prospects [24] Conclusion - China Jushi is positioned for optimistic growth in the fiberglass industry, driven by strategic shifts towards high-end products, strong execution capabilities, and favorable market dynamics. The company's cost advantages and proactive financial strategies further enhance its investment appeal [2][4][10][23]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **building materials industry**, focusing on **cement**, **glass**, and **photovoltaic glass** sectors, along with emerging materials and government policies impacting these areas [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Cement Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) aims to increase the cement industry's capacity utilization rate from approximately **45% to 70%** by December 31, 2025, through restrictions on overproduction and encouraging off-peak production [1][3][6]. - Challenges include effective supervision and enforcement of these policies, as well as the potential revival of "zombie" capacities that could undermine profitability improvements [6][22]. - Companies like **Sankeshu**, **Hankow Group**, and **Dongfang Yuhong** show significant fundamental improvements, making them noteworthy [3][18]. - The outlook for export-oriented building material companies is optimistic, particularly for leaders like **China Jushi** [3][19]. Glass Industry - The glass sector, particularly float and architectural glass, has reacted positively to the new policies, with significant movements in both futures and stock markets indicating expectations of price increases [5][9]. - The main driver of stock price fluctuations is attributed to pricing strategies of small and medium enterprises during peak seasons, rather than the new growth stabilization policies [9]. - The glass industry faces limited new policy increments, focusing instead on capacity replacement, with market performance influenced by window guidance [15][23]. Photovoltaic Glass Industry - The photovoltaic glass sector has implemented measures to reduce production capacity by approximately **15%**, leading to improved profitability, transitioning from losses to a **10% net profit** for leading companies [10]. - However, the industry faces risks from potential declines in export tax rebates, which may lead to short-term export surges [10][15]. Emerging Materials - New materials such as advanced glass, artificial crystals, and high-performance fibers are gaining attention, with some receiving policy support [11][16]. - The introduction of quality traceability mechanisms is expected to enhance standards in the building materials sector, particularly for non-standard products [17]. Other Important Insights - Government subsidies for building materials have been marginally improved, with categories like tiles and energy-efficient windows included in new subsidy programs, although the overall subsidy intensity has decreased compared to the previous year [12][14]. - Urban renewal projects continue to support demand for building materials, with ongoing high activity levels in renovation and upgrading of old properties [13][14]. - The building materials industry is expected to see structural growth through strict supply controls, demand stimulation, and quality improvements, although execution details and potential risks remain to be clarified [8][14]. Company Performance and Recommendations - Companies with strong fundamentals, such as **Sankeshu**, **Hankow Group**, and **Dongfang Yuhong**, are recommended for their positive performance outlook [18][20]. - Export-oriented companies like **China Jushi** are highlighted for their growth potential, especially in a favorable global demand environment post-Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [19]. - The cement sector's main players, including **Huaxin Cement**, **Keda Manufacturing**, and **Puyang Nanfang**, are expected to show long-term upward trends despite short-term volatility [20]. Conclusion - The building materials industry is undergoing significant changes driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and improving quality standards. Key sectors like cement, glass, and photovoltaic glass are adapting to these changes, presenting both challenges and opportunities for investors and companies alike [1][8][14].