先说说大家最关注的两个事儿：一是Netflix豪掷720亿收购华纳兄弟的电影和流媒体资产，二是市场对 美联储降息的预期飙到了87%。这俩事儿放一块儿，其实就是当前美股的核心脉络。先聊收购案，流媒 体行业这几年卷得厉害，Netflix这次出手，说白了就是想通过整合内容资源，巩固自己的行业地位，毕 竟华纳手里的经典IP可是不少。但有意思的是，白宫已经表态"高度怀疑"，这就意味着后续监管审批会 有变数，所以华纳股价涨了6%，Netflix反而跌了2.9%，市场其实早就把这个风险算进去了。 再看宏观数据，美国9月消费支出几乎没增长，核心PCE通胀率倒是符合预期，12月消费者信心还比预 想的高。这组数据看着矛盾，其实反映了美国经济的现状：老百姓开始控制开支，但对未来的通胀预期 在改善，加上初请失业金人数降到了2022年9月以来的低点，劳动力市场没出大问题，这就给美联储降 息留了空间。不过大家别光盯着降息预期，有个隐忧得注意——美国11月裁员人数已经让年度裁员破了 100万，AI替代、企业重组都是重要原因，这说明经济复苏其实还挺脆弱，后续可能会有波动。 聊到观点，帮主得说句实在的：美股这波上涨，本质是"数据达标+政策预期 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the paradox of rising layoff notifications in the U.S. job market while unemployment claims remain historically low, indicating a potential economic downturn ahead [2][7]. Group 1: Layoff Notifications - In October 2025, the number of WARN layoff notifications reached 39,006, signaling a potential wave of job losses in the upcoming months [4]. - This figure is comparable to historical peaks during major crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the early COVID-19 pandemic, despite the absence of large corporate bankruptcies or global lockdowns [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Challenger Gray & Christmas reported that October 2025 saw the highest number of announced layoffs for that month in over 20 years, indicating a worsening trend in the labor market [6]. - The article highlights a fundamental shift in the labor market, moving from a labor shortage phase (2021-2023) to a phase of layoffs driven by factors such as rising interest rates and AI-induced job displacement [10]. Group 3: Future Projections - The unemployment rate is projected to exceed 5% by the end of Q1 2026, marking the onset of a mild recession, with the Federal Reserve likely to initiate interest rate cuts between March and May [11]. - The anticipated "white-collar recession" is expected to spread from the tech and finance sectors to broader service industries, with real estate prices potentially declining by 10%-15% [13].