February 9, 2026 11:07 AM GMT Morgan Stanley Research Global Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum The AI Capex Acceleration: Reading the Signals from 4Q Earnings February 9, 2026 Vishwanath Tirupattur – Chief Fixed Income Strategist | Strategist Brian Nowak – Lead US Internet Analyst | Equity Analyst Keith Weiss – Software Equity Research Analyst | Equity Analyst Stephen Byrd – Global Head of Thematic Research and Sustainability Research | Equity Analyst Andrew Pauker – US Equity Strategist | Equity Strategist ...

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Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced a decline at the end of January, influenced by weakness in the tech sector and a significant selloff in commodities, despite solid earnings reports [3][21] - The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all closed lower on the last trading day of January, with the S&P 500 down 0.43% to 6,939.03 and the Dow down 0.36% to 48,892.47 [5][21] - The Russell 2000 index outperformed, surging 5% for the month, indicating a potential rotation towards small-cap stocks [4][18] Earnings Season Insights - Earnings season has shown solid but not exceptional results, with 74.4% of 133 S&P 500 companies beating expectations, slightly below the four-quarter average of 78% [8] - Q4 earnings are projected to grow by 10.2% year-over-year, with full-year 2026 earnings expected to increase by 15% [8] Tech Sector Performance - The tech sector faced significant pressure, particularly after Microsoft's disappointing cloud growth guidance, which led to a sector-wide selloff [7][21] - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks are under scrutiny, with even earnings beats being sold off if guidance is disappointing [7][17] Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity markets experienced a dramatic reversal, with gold plunging 11.4% to $4,745 and silver crashing 31.4%, marking its worst single-day drop in modern history [9] - The selloff was triggered by profit-taking following a surge in prices earlier in the week, as investors reacted to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair [9][19] Federal Reserve and Economic Data - Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair has created uncertainty regarding the Fed's future path, as he is perceived as hawkish on inflation but dovish on rates [6][18] - Recent economic data indicated a rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for December by 0.5% month-over-month, suggesting the Fed may maintain higher rates for an extended period [13] Upcoming Events and Expectations - The upcoming week features significant earnings reports from major companies, including Palantir, Disney, Alphabet, and Amazon, which will be closely watched for insights into cloud growth and AI capital expenditures [15][17] - The January jobs report is anticipated to be pivotal, with expectations of a +70K increase in nonfarm payrolls, which could influence market expectations for Fed policy in 2026 [16][18]

24/7 Wall St. Quick Read Micron posted 257% year-over-year earnings growth as memory pricing recovered. SOXL holds roughly 30% in cash and treasury instruments to enable daily rebalancing. This creates drag during rallies. Broadcom represents 6.1% of SOXL equity exposure and trades at 38x forward P/E. If you’re thinking about retiring or know someone who is, there are three quick questions causing many Americans to realize they can retire earlier than expected. take 5 minutes to learn more here ...

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or a ...

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or a ...

Core Insights - Amazon (AMZN) stock has increased by over 6% in the past four months, indicating a positive trend in its performance [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - The article highlights that Oakoff Investments provides a personal portfolio management service and quantitative research analysis, focusing on balancing growth and value for investors [1]. - Beyond the Wall Investing offers features such as a fundamentals-based portfolio, weekly analysis from institutional investors, and alerts for short-term trade ideas based on technical signals [1]. Group 2: Market Context - The increase in AMZN stock price suggests a solid performance, although the analysis has not been updated since August 2025 [1].

Hello and welcome to market domination over time. There are quite a few big bullish bets on markets for 2026 on Wall Street. And our next guest says economic tailwinds should support that market sentiment. Here with me at the desk got Bryant Vancronite, Allspring Global Investments senior portfolio manager. Bryant, always good to see you. Let's start here. Brian, you say the US economy should be good enough for stocks in early 26. Maybe start there. Why, Brian? Like what are the drivers? Is it monetary stim ...

Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs recommends buying the dips in the market as stocks are off their highs, with expectations of the Federal Reserve potentially cutting interest rates [1][2] - The unemployment rate is around 4%, and the federal government is projected to run a deficit of $1.8 to $1.9 trillion over the next several years, which could support a positive outlook for the stock market [2] Consumer Spending - There is an expectation that the consumer will not "fall off a cliff," with mixed signals from various retailers; companies like Gap and TJ Maxx reported good performance, while Home Depot's earnings were less favorable [7][8] - The National Retail Federation anticipates that consumers will spend over one trillion dollars this holiday season, indicating strong consumer momentum [10] Economic Indicators - The high-income consumer is propping up the economy, while low-income consumers are still under pressure, as noted by Walmart's performance across income cohorts [11] - A weaker-than-expected labor market has contributed to current economic challenges, impacting consumer behavior [12] Technology Sector - The narrative around AI capital expenditures is crucial for market stability; if investor confidence in this area wanes, it could lead to a significant market downturn [13] - Persistent growth and demand in technology, particularly related to AI, are expected to continue despite potential economic downturns [14] Federal Reserve Influence - Future market movements are likely to be heavily influenced by Federal Reserve statements regarding interest rates, with a focus on accommodating market conditions [16]