1. 吴泳铭表示，将在3800亿元AI基础设施的建设上，追加更大的投入。 今年初，阿里巴巴港股的市值还只有1.5万亿港元左右，9个多月后，阿里巴巴不仅实现了市值翻倍，还创下了近4年的股价新高。 在阿里巴巴市值翻倍的这9个月里，每当"吴泳铭""AI""投资"三个关键词同时出现时，阿里的股价通常都会迎来一波大涨。 今年2月，吴泳铭宣布阿里将在未来三年投入至少3800亿元建设云和AI硬件基础设施，随后阿里股价在10个交易日内累计上涨超过35%；在Q2财报电话会 上，吴泳铭再一次重申阿里对AI投入的决心，配合二季度阿里云的超预期表现，阿里巴巴美股一夜上涨13.5%。 最近一次，则是在9月24日举办的2025云栖大会上，吴泳铭宣布未来计划追加更大的投入，阿里港股股价盘中大幅拉升，最终收涨9.16%，总市值来到3.32 万亿港元。 在两股情绪并存的市场上，计划投入3800亿，要做AI时代基础设施的阿里云为什么得到了更多的"支持票"？ 不确定的泡沫和确定的AGI 本月初，美国科技公司甲骨文发布截至8月的2026财年第一财季报告，财报显示，未实现履约义务（尚未确认的已签约收入）已经达到4550亿美元，同比 增长359%，并且 ...

Market Outlook & Investment Strategy - Goldman Sachs encourages clients to stay invested and deploy incremental capital over 6-18 months, anticipating potential drawdowns [2] - The market has an 80% probability of experiencing a 10% drawdown, but valuations are not always reliable predictors of market performance [3] - Family offices are looking to decrease cash holdings by 30% over the next 12 months, shifting towards public and private equities [5] - There is significant "right tail risk" in the market, suggesting potential for further upside [7] Economic Factors & Fed Policy - $73 trillion is sitting in money market funds, which could move into risk assets as rates decline [8] - The Fed anticipates a slowdown followed by reacceleration, driven by fiscal and monetary stimulus, and a weaker dollar [9] - Fiscal stimulus is expected to increase cash flow for consumers and corporations [10] AI & Earnings - AI capex has doubled in the last two years, from $150 billion to $300 billion, but remains at 50% of cash flows, unlike the tech bubble [12][13] - The top five stocks have a return on equity (ROE) of 65% and grew over 20% in the first half of the year [14] - The market is more driven by earnings than the overall economy [16] Market Positioning & Sentiment - Client sentiment is mixed, with wealth management clients being neutral to risk-on [4] - Hedge funds are at the 40th percentile of net long positioning, and mutual funds are holding $170 billion in cash, indicating relatively light positioning [6] - The market is expected to hover around current levels until the end of the year, with a moderate upward trend in 2026 [17] Small Caps vs Large/Mid Caps - Small caps have been performing well, but last year the S&P outperformed small caps despite rate cuts and GDP growth [18][19] - Goldman Sachs prefers large and mid-cap stocks [19]

Core Insights - The focus on AI has intensified as major tech companies released their Q2 earnings, shifting market sentiment from skepticism about AI investments to a belief that more investment is needed [1] - Analysts are increasingly questioning the monetization and capital return of AI, indicating a growing confidence in AI's revenue-driving capabilities [1][2] Group 1: AI's Impact on Major Companies - Google's Q2 performance serves as a strong indicator for the industry, showcasing significant growth driven by AI in cloud services and advertising [3][5] - Google reported Q2 revenue of $96.4 billion, a 14% increase, with cloud services revenue reaching $13.6 billion, up 32% [5][7] - Meta's Q2 revenue was $47.52 billion, a 22% increase, with advertising revenue also growing by 22% due to AI efficiencies [11][12] Group 2: AI in Advertising - AI has been instrumental in enhancing advertising efficiency across platforms, with Google's AI Max improving conversion rates by 14% for advertisers [9][10] - Meta's new AI advertising model increased Instagram's ad conversion rates by approximately 5% and Facebook's by 3% [13][14] - Tencent's advertising business grew by 20% year-on-year, reaching 36 billion yuan, driven by AI applications in ad creation and performance analysis [16] Group 3: Capital Expenditure Trends - Google plans to increase its capital expenditure from $75 billion to $85 billion, primarily for server and data center investments to support cloud service demand [25][27] - Meta's capital expenditure for Q2 was $17 billion, representing 35.8% of its revenue, indicating aggressive investment in infrastructure [26] - Both companies are establishing a competitive edge through substantial AI-related capital investments, which may raise barriers for smaller players in the industry [27] Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Dynamics - The integration of AI into online marketing is expected to yield significant benefits for companies like Google and Meta, as improved ad performance leads to increased budgets from advertisers [26][19] - The AI landscape is evolving, with startups in the AI space, such as OpenAI and Anthropic, gaining substantial attention and revenue [23][24] - The focus on maximizing returns from previous capital investments is anticipated to shift the competitive landscape as companies navigate the cost implications of their AI investments [28]

Economic Growth - The US GDP for Q2 2025 showed a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of +3.0%, reversing from a previous decline of -0.5% and exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +2.6% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast of +2.9%[1] - The core PCE for the same period increased by +2.5%, surpassing the expected +2.3% and down from +3.5% in the previous quarter[1] Structural Analysis - The significant GDP growth was driven by a reversal of the "import surge & inventory accumulation" seen in Q1, with the contribution from goods imports rebounding from -4.84% to +5.02% and inventory changes dropping from +2.59% to -3.17%[1] - The Private Domestic Final Purchases (PDFP), a core GDP indicator, grew by only +1.2%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of decline and indicating weak internal economic growth[1] Inventory Dynamics - Inventory changes shifted from $160.5 billion to -$26 billion, reflecting a transition from active inventory accumulation by producers and wholesalers to inventory reduction, while retail inventories continued to grow albeit at a slower pace[1] - If demand does not absorb retail inventories, the likelihood of businesses actively restocking in Q3 may be limited[1] Future Outlook - Attention should be paid to the risk of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in September, which could lead to an increase in US Treasury yields and the US dollar index rising back to the 100-105 range[1] - The current market is trading under the assumption of "strengthening growth leading to delayed rate cuts," and if upcoming employment data reflects similar trends, the probability of a rate cut in September may decrease, tightening financial conditions and increasing downward pressure on the economy[1] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected policy actions from Trump, excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[1]

To me, this is the big question that so many people have underestimated for 2025. How much are we actually seeing that a tailwind coming into practical effect versus still remain a promise. Well, I think it's again, it's interesting because when you think of A.I. , when you discuss A. I., it's almost exclusively about the future and what it means. And that, I think, distracts from the present just how important all this spending is. Stacks, servers, GPUs, physical construction, and, of course, electricity r ...