机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：林起贤/黄忠煌/任梦妮/夏嘉励/崔航/张淇元 智能驾驶：萝卜快跑订单量高增，盈利能力大幅改善，经十余年深耕，"车、路、云、图"全栈技术体系 完备。同时受益于规模效应增强+成本大幅降低，单车盈利已转正。2025 年商业化显著加速，每周订单 量已超25 万，全球领先，25Q3 订单310 万同比增超200%，推进欧洲、中东等海外高客单价地区。我们 认为国内Robotaxi 在成本、基建等方面较海外均有显著优势，看好百度对下一代"移动生活空间"的布 局。 上调至"买入"评级。我们预计百度集团整体2025-2027 年收入分别为1285/1331/1410亿元，对应增速分 别为-3%/4%/6%。SOTP 估值方法下，集团整体目标估值4302 亿人民币，对应港股目标价172.54 港币/ 股，上调至"买入"评级。 风险提示：广告行业竞争加剧风险，宏观环境变化影响企业上云需求，国内云厂竞争加剧，创新业务不 确定性及监管风险。 AI 时代国内AI 云收入加速兑现，互联网公司各具优势。24Q3 起阿里、腾讯等头部云厂加大AI 资本开 支，25 年前三季BAT 资本开支/营收超10%，接近23 年 ...

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Core Points - IREN Limited announced a registered direct offering of 39,699,102 ordinary shares at a price of $41.12 per share, with gross proceeds expected to be approximately $1,632.4 million [1][4] - The offering is intended to fund the repurchase of existing convertible notes and for general corporate purposes [4][5] - Concurrently, IREN is conducting a private offering of $1 billion aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2032 and 2033, with an option for additional purchases [3][4] Offering Details - The offering will close on December 8, 2025, subject to customary closing conditions [1][3] - The repurchase involves approximately $227.7 million of Existing 2030 Convertible Notes and $316.6 million of Existing 2029 Convertible Notes, totaling an aggregate repurchase price of approximately $1,632.4 million [2][4] - The proceeds from the offering will also cover the cost of capped call transactions related to the convertible notes [4] Company Background - IREN is a leading AI Cloud Service Provider, specializing in large-scale GPU clusters for AI training and inference [9]

Core Points - IREN Limited announced a registered direct offering of ordinary shares to a limited number of purchasers, with gross proceeds expected to approximate the cash consideration for the repurchase of existing convertible notes [1][2] - The company plans to repurchase portions of its existing 2029 and 2030 convertible notes, with the repurchase amount expected to match the size of the offering, subject to market conditions [2][4] - IREN intends to offer $1 billion aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2032 and 2033 in a separate private offering, with options for additional amounts [3][4] - The net proceeds from the offerings will be used for capped call transactions, repurchasing existing convertible notes, and general corporate purposes [4][5] Offering Details - The offering is being conducted under an effective shelf registration statement and will be made via a separate prospectus supplement [6] - Completion of the offering is not contingent on the concurrent offering or the repurchase of convertible notes [5] Company Overview - IREN is a leading AI Cloud Service Provider, specializing in large-scale GPU clusters for AI training and inference, supported by a portfolio of grid-connected land and data centers in renewable-rich regions across the U.S. and Canada [9]

Core Insights - Snowflake (SNOW) stock has surged nearly 90% over the past year, driven by continuous earnings beats and advancements in AI cloud technology [2][3] - The stock price increase of 89% is attributed to a 28% rise in revenue and a 48% increase in the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio [3] Financial Performance - Q3 FY25 earnings beat expectations, leading to a 20% stock increase on November 20, 2024, with an upgraded FY25 outlook [8] - Q4 FY25 results showed a 33% growth in product revenue, contributing to strong performance [8] - In Q1 FY26, revenue exceeded $1 billion for the first time, with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.24 compared to the $0.21 estimate, resulting in a 6.63% stock increase [8] - Q2 FY26 earnings also beat estimates, with EPS at $0.38 against an estimate of $0.27 and revenue at $1.14 billion versus an estimated $1.09 billion, leading to a stock surge [8] Innovations and Developments - Significant AI cloud innovations were introduced at the Snowflake Summit in June 2025, including Openflow, Gen2 Warehouses, and Cortex AI [8]

Core Insights - Mr. Mavroudis is a professional portfolio manager with a focus on risk management and in-depth financial market analysis [1] - He has successfully navigated major crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the PSI [1] - Mr. Mavroudis is the CEO of FAST FINANCE Investment Services, a registered Greek company [1] Company Profile - FAST FINANCE Investment Services is registered with the Hellenic Capital Market Commission [1] - The company specializes in managing institutional and private portfolios globally across various financial instruments [1] Professional Background - Mr. Mavroudis holds multiple degrees, including an MSc in Financial and Banking Management, an LLM in Law, and a BSc in Economics, graduating as valedictorian [1] - He is certified in various financial disciplines, including portfolio management and derivatives [1] Engagement and Contribution - Mr. Mavroudis writes daily articles for reputable financial media and participates as a guest commentator on television and online programs [1] - He aims to foster a community of mutual growth and knowledge sharing through his contributions on platforms like Seeking Alpha [1]

Core Insights - The attractiveness of Chinese tech giants has been overlooked by the market until early this year, primarily due to a lack of regulatory catalysts and a weakening Chinese consumer [1]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - Investors previously underestimated the potential of Chinese tech companies in the post-pandemic landscape [1]. Group 2: Analyst Background - Dilantha De Silva, an experienced equity analyst, has over 10 years in the investment industry and focuses on small-cap stocks often ignored by Wall Street [1].

Group 1 - The article highlights that until the beginning of the year, the market had largely overlooked the potential of Chinese tech giants in the post-pandemic landscape [1] - It notes that the lack of regulatory catalysts and a weakening Chinese consumer sentiment led many investors to underestimate these companies [1] Group 2 - The author, Dilantha De Silva, is an experienced equity analyst with over 10 years in the investment industry, focusing on small-cap stocks often ignored by Wall Street [1] - De Silva has contributed to various investment platforms and has been featured on major financial news outlets, indicating a strong reputation in the field [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 group revenue reached $146 million, representing a year-over-year increase of nearly 355% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 39% [9] - Annualized run rate revenue for the core business at the end of September was $551 million, with the core infrastructure business accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue and growing 400% year-over-year [9] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for the core infrastructure business expanded quarter-over-quarter to nearly 19% [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core infrastructure business was the primary driver of revenue growth, with significant contributions from mega deals with Microsoft and Meta [4][9] - The company sold out all available capacity, indicating that revenue growth was limited only by the capacity brought online [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand environment in Q3 was described as very strong, with a 70% quarter-on-quarter expansion in pipeline generation [24] - The company expects to achieve a contracted power of 2.5 gigawatts by the end of 2026, up from 1 gigawatt discussed in the previous earnings call [5][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on building its core AI cloud business while also pursuing large long-term deals with major clients [4][6] - Investments are being made to secure critical infrastructure, including hardware and power, with a CapEx guidance increase from approximately $2 billion to around $5 billion for 2025 [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving an annualized run rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026, driven by strong demand and accelerated capacity growth [6][19] - The company remains focused on maintaining healthy margins and a sustainable business model while navigating the rapidly growing AI market [44] Other Important Information - The company launched its new enterprise-ready cloud platform version 3.0, called Aether, and a new inference platform called Nebius Token Factory, aimed at expanding its addressable market [6] - The company is actively evaluating financing options, including corporate debt, asset-backed financing, and equity, to support its growth plans [10][34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you tell us more about the new Meta deal? - The new deal with Meta is approximately $3 billion, limited by the capacity available. The company is optimistic about signing more large deals in the future [14] Question: What exactly is in the $7 billion-$9 billion ARR target? - The target includes contracted power and demand from AI startups and enterprises, with more than half already booked [17][19] Question: What gives you confidence that you can reach your 2.5 gigawatts goal of contracted capacity? - The company is ramping up capacity in various regions, including the U.K. and Israel, and has secured a roadmap for 2.5 gigawatts of power [20][21] Question: How should we think about revenue contribution from Microsoft and Meta deals for this year and going forward? - Revenue from Microsoft will ramp up in 2026, while Meta's deployments are expected to conclude in the next three months, with full revenue run rate anticipated in 2026 [22] Question: What does the overall demand environment look like in Q4 and into the next year? - The demand profile is accelerating, with a significant increase in pipeline generation and strong confidence in future growth [24] Question: How are you thinking about CapEx and what is your philosophy on CapEx spending? - The company plans to secure as much capacity as possible, with a focus on building infrastructure in line with visible demand [27][29] Question: Is there any chance that GPUs are oversupplied in the coming year? - The company believes the market will remain supply constrained at least until 2026, with a conservative approach to capital spending [65]

Core Insights - IREN Limited reported strong first-quarter earnings, with earnings per share of $1.08, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.14, and quarterly revenue of $240.3 million, exceeding the Street estimate of $235.5 million [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Quarterly earnings were $1.08 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $0.14 per share [1] - Quarterly revenue reached $240.3 million, surpassing the Street estimate of $235.5 million [1] Group 2: Strategic Developments - IREN secured several new multi-year contracts, including a significant partnership with Microsoft, enhancing its position as a leading AI Cloud Service Provider [2] - The partnership with Microsoft is expected to expand IREN's reach into new hyperscale customer segments [2] Group 3: Analyst Reactions - Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch maintained an Overweight rating on IREN but lowered the price target from $142 to $136 [5] - HC Wainwright & Co. analyst Mike Colonnese maintained a Sell rating and raised the price target from $45 to $56 [5]