证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-11-25 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《扩内需亟待发力，关注服务消费和 新基建投资机会》 - 2025.11.17 宏观研究 高频数据显示经济增速有所放缓，符合预期 核心观点 从高频数据来看，11 月居民生活半径有所回升，但"双 11"电商 节销售额或仅小幅回升，且汽车销售有所放缓，11 月社零或小幅增 长；工业需求有所分化，螺纹钢需求弱复苏，沥青需求环比走弱，整 体来看工业需求或维持阶段低位；我国对美发船数量环比小幅下降， 海上丝路指数环比走弱，但韩国前 20 日出口较为明显回升，11 月我 国出口或小幅回落；生产端或小幅放缓，上游生产环比走弱，中下游 生产分化，半钢胎生产率环比回升，PTA 开工率放缓。综上，在去年 四季度高基数的影响下，11 月经济或小幅放缓，供需寻求再平衡。 向后看，考虑去年四季度基数走高，11 月经济或小幅放缓，亦是 ...

摩根大通大幅上调百度目标价至188美元。分析师认为，百度的投资叙事正在发生根本性转变：公司正从传统搜索广告公司转型为AI基础设施供应商，预 计昆仑芯片销售及GPU计算需求将推动营收增速显著提升，云业务收入将在2026年增长61%。但摩根大通对百度广告业务前景相对谨慎，分析师强调， 上调催化剂将来自云/AI基础设施增长，而非传统广告业务的反弹。 摩根大通上调百度评级及目标价格。分析师认为，市场严重低估了百度AI转型的速度和规模，得益于昆仑芯片销量增长，公司云业务收入将在2026年 增长61%。 摩根大通在11月23日的报告中表示，百度的投资叙事正在发生根本性转变：公司正从传统搜索广告公司转型为AI基础设施供应商， 预计昆仑芯片销售 及GPU计算需求将推动营收增速显著提升。 昆仑芯片销售将显著增长 摩根大通预计， 百度昆仑芯片收入将从2025年的约人民币13亿元飙升至2026年的83亿元，增幅达到6倍。 这一预测基于中国头部云服务商加速采购国产AI加速器的结构性转变： 自2025年起，中国主要超大规模云服务商百度、阿里巴巴、腾讯和字节跳动加 速采购和部署国产AI加速器，从试点应用转向大规模多供应商采购。 百度昆仑 ...

Summary of Baidu's Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Baidu - **Date**: Q3 2025 Earnings Call Key Points Industry and Business Performance - **AI Cloud Business**: Baidu's AI cloud business showed strong growth with subscription revenue increasing by 128% year-over-year, indicating robust market demand for AI products and solutions [2][4][3] - **Total Revenue**: In Q3 2025, Baidu reported total revenue of 312 billion RMB, a decrease of 7% year-over-year [15][16] - **Online Marketing Growth**: Despite the overall revenue decline, online marketing revenue grew by 21% driven by the AI cloud business [2][16] AI and Technology Developments - **Apollo Autonomous Driving**: The Apollo project achieved significant progress with a 212% year-over-year increase in operational permissions, expanding to 22 cities globally [2][6] - **Ernie 5.0 Model**: The newly released Ernie 5.0 model reached world-class levels in understanding and creative writing, enhancing user engagement and decision-making [17][4] User Engagement and Marketing Innovations - **User Activity**: Baidu's app reached 708 million monthly active users, with a 1% year-over-year increase, and daily usage time per user grew by 2.3% [2][14] - **Digital Humans in Marketing**: Approximately 30,000 advertisers utilized digital agents for ad spending, showcasing the effectiveness of AI in enhancing marketing strategies [2][8] Financial Metrics - **AI Cloud Revenue**: AI cloud revenue reached 62 billion RMB, a 21% increase year-over-year, with AI infrastructure revenue growing by 33% [3][15] - **Operating Costs**: Operating costs were reported at 183 billion RMB, a 12% increase year-over-year, while R&D expenses accounted for 19% of core business revenue [16] Future Outlook - **Expansion Plans**: Baidu aims to continue expanding its AI-driven services and enhance its global presence, particularly in autonomous driving and AI cloud services [10][22] - **Investment in AI**: Over 100 billion RMB has been invested in AI technologies, with plans for continued investment to improve operational leverage and profitability [30] Additional Insights - **User Behavior Changes**: There has been a significant increase in user interactions, with dialogue rounds increasing by approximately five times, indicating high acceptance of new features [19][20] - **Asset Impairment**: The company conducted asset impairments to align its portfolio with current AI computing demands, improving its asset base for future growth [28][29] Conclusion Baidu's Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted strong growth in AI cloud services and autonomous driving, despite a decline in overall revenue. The company is focused on leveraging AI technologies to enhance user engagement and drive future growth, with significant investments planned in the AI sector.

Core Viewpoint - Baidu's Q3 2025 financial report highlights significant growth in AI business, with total revenue reaching 31.2 billion yuan and core revenue at 24.7 billion yuan, marking a substantial transformation in its revenue structure driven by AI initiatives [1][4][23] Financial Performance - The Q3 report reveals Baidu's first disclosure of AI business revenue, showing an overall year-on-year growth exceeding 50% [1] - Baidu's total investment in AI since March 2023 has surpassed 100 billion yuan [1] - Following the positive earnings report, Citigroup raised Baidu's target price, leading to over 2% gains in both Hong Kong and US stock markets [4] AI Business Segmentation - For the first time, Baidu's Q3 report separates AI revenue into three segments: AI Cloud, AI Applications, and AI Native Marketing Services, providing clearer insights into its product valuation logic [5] - AI Cloud revenue grew by 33% year-on-year, with AI high-performance computing subscription revenue surging by 128% [5][8] Market Leadership - Baidu Smart Cloud has maintained its position as the leading AI public cloud provider in China for six consecutive years, with significant adoption among state-owned enterprises and financial institutions [8] - The AI Applications segment generated 2.6 billion yuan in Q3, primarily through a subscription model, contributing to stable revenue [8] Product Innovations - The GenFlow 3.0 upgrade allows users to generate and edit documents using simple commands, enhancing user engagement [9] - AI Native Marketing Services saw a remarkable 262% year-on-year revenue increase, driven by digital human and intelligent agent technologies [10] Core Business Transformation - Baidu's search business has undergone a radical AI transformation, with AI-generated content accounting for nearly 70% of mobile search results [12] - The introduction of the Wenxin Assistant has significantly increased user engagement, with a fivefold increase in dialogue rounds and over 10 million daily active users [12] Autonomous Driving Growth - The "Luobo Kuai Pao" autonomous driving service recorded 3.1 million rides in Q3, a 212% increase year-on-year, with significant global expansion [13][16] - Baidu has achieved key milestones in autonomous driving, including obtaining testing licenses in Dubai and commercial operation permits in Abu Dhabi [16] Competitive Advantages - Baidu's AI growth is supported by a comprehensive stack of technologies, including chips, large models, and cloud services, differentiating it from competitors [20] - The latest Kunlun chips and Wenxin models are positioned to meet the demands of large-scale AI applications, enhancing Baidu's competitive edge [21] Future Outlook - Baidu's Q3 results reflect the effectiveness of its long-term strategy, demonstrating that AI can generate sustainable revenue and profits [23] - The company is exploring diversified shareholder return methods, including a stock buyback plan that has already repurchased 2.3 billion USD worth of shares [23] - The global AI market is expected to grow rapidly, with significant opportunities in large models, autonomous driving, and AI cloud services [27][28]

来源：21世纪经济报道 热点情报 1. 全球股市跳水，什么原因？ 全球股市遭遇"黑色星期二"。日经225指数收跌3.22%，创自四月以来最大单日跌幅，收于49000点下方。韩国KOSPI指数收跌3.32%，芯片股领跌。 二是，日本国债遭遇大幅抛售。 黄金、白银价格跳水。比特币七个月来首次跌破9万美元，持续一个月的下跌已抹去2025年所有涨幅。 A股港股低开低走，自9月中旬以来，沪指首次出现3连阴。欧洲股市集体下跌，纳斯达克指数期货下跌。 解读： 发生了什么？ 一是，美联储降息预期降温。 据央视财经报道，芝商所美联储观察工具显示，目前美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已降至不足50%。 后续留意美联储即将公布的10月FOMC会议纪要。有趣的是，瑞银认为，无论内部出现了怎样的反对声音，都不足以阻止美联储进行今年第三次降息的步 伐。 摩根士丹利上周末预测，中国股市2026年有望进一步上涨，延续今年的强劲涨势。 日本10年期国债收益率今天一度攀升至1.75%以上，接近2008年以来的最高水平。 日本国债如何影响全球流动性？分析人士认为，日本国债收益率快速拉升与全球流动性密切相关，主要通过资本流动、日元套利交易解体以及跨 ...

Core Insights - Baidu is aggressively advancing into the AI era, showcasing transformative value through its AI products and solutions, with a focus on AI cloud and marketing services [1][5][22] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Baidu reported total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan, with core revenue of 24.7 billion yuan; AI cloud revenue grew by 33%, AI application revenue reached 2.6 billion yuan, and AI native marketing service revenue surged by 262% to 2.8 billion yuan [1][9] AI Product Development - Baidu has launched a series of innovative AI products, including the Kunlun chip and Wenxin 5.0, marking a transition from "intelligent emergence" to "value realization" [5][6] - The new generation of Kunlun chips (M100 and M300) is optimized for large-scale inference and multimodal model training, supporting AI technology's large-scale application [6] Market Position and Growth - Baidu's AI cloud holds a 24.6% market share in China's AI public cloud service market, leading for six consecutive years; it is the choice of 65% of central enterprises and 100% of systemically important banks [7] - The AI application segment is experiencing rapid growth, with significant revenue from flagship products like Baidu Wenku and digital employees [9][10] Digital Employee and AI Applications - Baidu's digital employees, such as the "Wu Yanzu Digital English Coach" and "Dong Dong" for China Eastern Airlines, are transforming user experiences across various industries [10][11] - The no-code platform "Miao Da" has generated over 400,000 applications, significantly lowering the development barrier for AI applications [11] Autonomous Driving and Global Expansion - Baidu's Robotaxi service, "Luo Bo Kua Pao," has achieved a global leading position, with 3.1 million service trips in Q3, a 212% year-on-year increase [13][15] - The service is expanding internationally, with plans for commercial operations in Abu Dhabi and partnerships with global ride-hailing platforms [15][16] AI Search Transformation - Baidu is transforming its search engine to integrate AI-generated content, with AI content accounting for 70% of search results by October [16][17] - The monthly active users of Baidu's AI search have grown by 18.63% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 382 million [16] Valuation and Market Reassessment - The rapid growth of Baidu's full-stack AI business and advancements in sectors like Robotaxi are leading to a reassessment of its market valuation, with multiple institutions raising target prices [19][22] - Baidu is increasingly viewed as a technology company centered on AI, spanning chips, models, applications, and autonomous driving, rather than just a traditional search engine [22]

Core Viewpoint - Baidu's AI business has become a new growth pillar, marking a significant breakthrough in the company's strategic transformation [2][9]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Baidu achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion yuan, with core revenue of 24.7 billion yuan [4]. - The Q3 report is notable for its comprehensive upgrade in data disclosure, particularly regarding AI performance [5][6]. - Baidu's AI business revenue grew over 50% year-on-year, with AI cloud revenue increasing by 33%, AI application revenue reaching 2.6 billion yuan, and AI native online marketing service revenue soaring by 262% to 2.8 billion yuan [6]. Business Transformation - AI revenue accounted for nearly 40% of Baidu's core revenue in Q3 2025, indicating a qualitative change in the company's business structure [11]. - Baidu has internalized AI as a core product and business strategy, transitioning from using AI as an external tool to becoming an AI-driven company [12]. - The most significant transformation occurred in Baidu's search product, which underwent its largest revision in a decade, shifting from text-based to AI-driven multimedia content [12]. Commercialization and User Engagement - AI is no longer just an optimization tool in advertising but has become a revenue-generating model, with AI-driven digital humans significantly boosting GMV during events like "Double 11" [13]. - The "Baidu Vamo" intelligent agent has seen over 1,000 enterprise applications for testing, showcasing the B-end business's growth potential [14]. - Baidu's autonomous driving service, "LuoBoKuaipao," achieved 3.1 million global service instances in Q3 2025, marking a 212% year-on-year increase [14]. Technological Foundation - Baidu's AI business growth is supported by a comprehensive technology stack, from chips to applications, enabling the internalization of AI capabilities [17][18]. - The company has developed a full-stack AI ecosystem, which includes self-developed chips and a deep learning framework, ensuring control over AI costs and iteration speed [19]. - The latest generation of Kunlun chips and the Wenxin large model have positioned Baidu as a leader in AI capabilities, with the Wenxin model ranking second globally in text task evaluations [20]. Market Outlook and Valuation - Baidu's latest financial report reflects a strong confidence in future growth, driven by a long-term strategic commitment to AI [22]. - The market has begun to reassess Baidu's value, recognizing it as a company driven by AI rather than merely possessing AI technology [22]. - Numerous top-tier institutions have raised their investment ratings and target prices for Baidu, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the company's transformation [24][26].

Core Insights - Baidu's Q3 2025 earnings report reveals a significant transformation in its revenue structure, with AI business revenue growing over 50% year-on-year, marking a pivotal moment in the company's AI commercialization journey [1][5][9] - The report highlights Baidu's strategic shift to internalize AI capabilities, transitioning from using AI as a tool to embedding it as a core component of its business model [6][9][10] Revenue Structure Transformation - In Q3 2025, AI revenue accounted for nearly 40% of Baidu's core revenue, indicating a substantial shift towards AI-driven growth [6] - Baidu has restructured its core products, such as the search engine, to prioritize AI-generated content, with approximately 70% of mobile search results now featuring AI content [6][7] - The launch of the GenFlow AI platform has attracted over 20 million active users, showcasing the successful integration of AI into Baidu's product offerings [6] Commercialization and Business Growth - AI is no longer just an optimization tool in advertising; it has become a revenue-generating model, with initiatives like "HuiBoXing" driving a 91% increase in GMV during the "Double 11" shopping festival [7] - The "Baidu Vamo" AI agent has seen over 1,000 enterprise applications for testing, demonstrating strong demand for AI solutions in complex scenarios [8] - Baidu's autonomous driving service, "LuoBo Kuaipao," achieved 310 million global service instances in Q3 2025, reflecting a 212% year-on-year growth [8] AI Technology Foundation - Baidu's comprehensive AI technology stack, from chips to applications, underpins its ability to internalize AI capabilities and drive revenue growth [10][11] - The self-developed Kunlun chip and AI cloud infrastructure provide a robust foundation for Baidu's AI strategy, ensuring control over costs and development timelines [11] - The latest version of Baidu's Wenxin model, capable of processing multiple data types, has positioned the company as a leader in AI capabilities, ranking second globally in text tasks [12] Market Revaluation - Baidu's earnings report signals a shift in market perception, as the company is now viewed as a core AI-driven entity rather than just a technology holder [13] - Major financial institutions have raised their investment ratings and target prices for Baidu, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential [15][17]

市场目光由技术竞速转向落地应用的转折点，百度交出了一份史无前例的季度AI业务成绩单。 11月18日晚，百度发布2025年第三季度财报，季度总营收312亿元，百度核心营收247亿元。 同时，百度首次详细披露了其AI业务的收入构成。财报数据显示，三季度，百度AI业务收入实现高速增长，同比增长50%。其中，AI云收入同比增长 33%，AI应用收入达到26亿元，AI原生在线营销服务收入实现28亿元，同比增长262% 。 这份详尽的AI收入图谱，标志着百度的AI战略已经越过了技术验证和场景探索的早期阶段，正式进入了规模化商业落地的深水区。百度正以一种前所未 有的激进姿态，向市场证明其AI全栈布局的价值，加速向一个真正的AI时代冲刺。 "第三季度，我们全方位展示了AI为业务带来的变革性价值。得益于越来越多的企业采用我们的AI产品和解决方案，AI云保持了稳健的增长势头；萝卜快 跑全无人运营规模加速扩大，全球化脚步加快，已进入瑞士市场，同时保持了行业领先的安全标准；在移动生态中，智能体和数字人等AI原生商业化产 品带来快速的收入增长，显示出强大的长期潜力。"百度创始人李彦宏表示，将继续开拓人工智能创新，为用户、企业和社会创造 ...

Core Insights - Baidu's Q3 revenue reached RMB 31.2 billion (USD 4.38 billion), with core revenue at RMB 24.7 billion (USD 3.46 billion) [1] - AI business revenue was disclosed for the first time, showing over 50% year-on-year growth, reaching approximately RMB 10 billion [1] - AI cloud infrastructure revenue grew by 33% to RMB 4.2 billion, while AI application revenue was RMB 2.6 billion, and AI native marketing service revenue surged by 262% to RMB 2.8 billion [1][4] AI Business Performance - AI cloud maintained robust growth, with AI high-performance computing subscription revenue increasing by 128% [4] - Baidu's AI applications generated RMB 2.6 billion in Q3, focusing on products like Baidu Wenku and Baidu Wangpan, utilizing a high-retention subscription model [4] - The AI native marketing service revenue reached RMB 2.8 billion, driven by increasing market recognition and demand for AI solutions [6] Global Expansion and Innovations - The autonomous driving service "LuoBo Kuaipao" recorded 3.1 million service instances in Q3, a 212% year-on-year increase, with a total of over 17 million global service instances [6] - Baidu's autonomous driving service has expanded to 22 cities globally, achieving over 1.4 billion kilometers in autonomous driving mileage [6] - The launch of the Wenxin large model 5.0 and the introduction of new Kunlun chips M100 and M300 are set for 2026 and 2027, respectively [7]