Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' latest report indicates that Baidu's chip subsidiary, Kunlun Chip, has submitted a listing application in Hong Kong, marking a significant step in unlocking asset value for Baidu [2][3] Group 1: Kunlun Chip's IPO - Kunlun Chip officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 1, 2026, through a global offering of shares, including public offerings in Hong Kong and placements to institutional and professional investors [3][4] - Baidu holds a 59% controlling stake in Kunlun Chip, which is expected to remain a subsidiary post-IPO, allowing Baidu to release market value while maintaining control over its core computing infrastructure [4] Group 2: Financial Projections - Goldman Sachs estimates that Kunlun Chip's sales will reach approximately 35 billion RMB by 2025, with a projected increase to 65 billion RMB in 2026 due to strong growth in new products and orders [6][7] - External sales are expected to grow rapidly, accounting for 14% of total cloud sales by 2026, with high-quality recurring revenue from subscription services projected to make up 43% of Baidu Cloud's total revenue [9][20] Group 3: Valuation Insights - If Kunlun Chip is valued similarly to Cambricon at a 40x price-to-sales ratio, the value of Baidu's 59% stake could reach 22 billion USD, representing about 45% of Baidu's current market capitalization [2][19] - A conservative valuation range for Kunlun Chip's 100% equity is estimated between 5 billion to 20 billion USD, translating to a value of 3 billion to 11 billion USD for Baidu's stake, which is 6% to 23% of its current market cap [19] Group 4: Investment Catalysts - Investors should closely monitor four key catalysts: announcements regarding new orders or product upgrades from Kunlun Chip, progress on the IPO, updates on shareholder return policies in Q1 2026, and developments related to the Hong Kong listing and Southbound trading connections [21][22][24]

消息上，申万宏源日前发布研报，将百度集团-SW评级上调至"买入"。研报预计，百度集团整体2025 - 2027年收入将分别达 到1285亿、1331亿、1410亿元。在SOTP估值方法下，集团整体目标估值达4302亿人民币，对应港股目标价172.54港币/股。 | ■ 百度集团-SW | | 分时 | 多日 日K 周K 同K 季K 年K 1分 3分 5分 | 10分 | 15分 v 1天:1分K v | 显示 v | @ Ov | 00 | E 3 VS FIO D | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | DOE | | 127.069 | | | | | | | | | 6,69% | | 126.600 | | | | | | | | | 6:30% | | 126.131 | | | | | | | | | 5.90% | | 125.663 | | | | | | | | | 5.51% | | 125.194 | | | | | | | | | 5.12% | | 124. ...

消息上，申万宏源日前发布研报，将百度集团-SW评级上调至"买入"。研报预计，百度集团整体2025 - 2027年收入将分别达到1285亿、1331亿、1410亿元。 在SOTP估值方法下，集团整体目标估值达4302亿人民币，对应港股目标价172.54港币/股。 百度集团-SW(9888.HK)高开高走，目前大幅上涨6.3%报126.6港元，总市值3475亿港元。 | ■ 百度集团-SW | | स्त्रेष्ठ | 多日 | 日K 周K 月K 季K 年K | | 1分 | 3分 5分 | 10分 15分 v 1天:1分K v | | 显示 ▼ | FOR | V | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 127.069 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 126.600 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 126.131 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 125.663 | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：林起贤/黄忠煌/任梦妮/夏嘉励/崔航/张淇元 智能驾驶：萝卜快跑订单量高增，盈利能力大幅改善，经十余年深耕，"车、路、云、图"全栈技术体系 完备。同时受益于规模效应增强+成本大幅降低，单车盈利已转正。2025 年商业化显著加速，每周订单 量已超25 万，全球领先，25Q3 订单310 万同比增超200%，推进欧洲、中东等海外高客单价地区。我们 认为国内Robotaxi 在成本、基建等方面较海外均有显著优势，看好百度对下一代"移动生活空间"的布 局。 上调至"买入"评级。我们预计百度集团整体2025-2027 年收入分别为1285/1331/1410亿元，对应增速分 别为-3%/4%/6%。SOTP 估值方法下，集团整体目标估值4302 亿人民币，对应港股目标价172.54 港币/ 股，上调至"买入"评级。 风险提示：广告行业竞争加剧风险，宏观环境变化影响企业上云需求，国内云厂竞争加剧，创新业务不 确定性及监管风险。 AI 时代国内AI 云收入加速兑现，互联网公司各具优势。24Q3 起阿里、腾讯等头部云厂加大AI 资本开 支，25 年前三季BAT 资本开支/营收超10%，接近23 年 ...

申万宏源主要观点如下： 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 申万宏源发布研报称，上调百度集团-SW（09888）至"买入"评级。该行预计百度集团整体2025-2027年 收入分别为1285/1331/1410亿元。SOTP估值方法下，集团整体目标估值4302亿人民币，对应港股目标价 172.54港币/股。 AI时代国内AI云收入加速兑现，互联网公司各具优势 24Q3起阿里、腾讯等头部云厂加大AI资本开支，25年前三季BAT资本开支/营收超10%，接近23年海外 云厂水平。从25年初以来，开源低成本大模型拉动AI云需求，阿里云等厂商增速回暖。横向对比看， 互联网云厂商全栈布局各有优势，腾讯、字节强在AI应用，阿里、百度掌控从芯片到行业应用的全技 术栈并可提供端到端服务，谷歌云为海外全栈AI标杆。 百度持续推进AI全栈建设，智能云业务增长提速 2025世界大会上，百度发布昆仑芯M系列芯片、全模态文心大模型5.0及多款企业级智能体应用；25Q3 百度AI云营收62亿元，AI基础设施收入同比增33%，加速器订阅收入增128%，25年前三季度智能云营 收193.3亿元、同比增31%，云收入 ...

Economic Performance - High-frequency data indicates a slight economic slowdown in November, consistent with expectations[2] - Retail sales during the "Double 11" shopping festival showed only a modest increase, while automobile sales experienced a slowdown[2] - Industrial demand remains differentiated, with a weak recovery in rebar demand and a decline in asphalt demand[2] Real Estate Market - As of November 21, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 15.63% month-on-month, but year-on-year growth remains negative at -31.18%[11] - The average land transaction price in November was 3278.17 yuan/square meter, down 1.71% from October and down 78.21% year-on-year[14] Industrial Demand - Rebar production saw a slight recovery with an average operating rate of 42.19%, up 0.76 percentage points from October but down from September[17] - Asphalt production showed a significant decline, with an average operating rate of 27.83%, down 5.97 percentage points from October[21] Export Trends - Exports from South Korea increased by 8.2% year-on-year in the first 20 days of November, while China's exports are expected to decline slightly[31] - The maritime Silk Road index weakened, indicating a decrease in shipping activity to the U.S.[31] Monetary Policy Outlook - Expectations for a December interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have increased, with over half of economists predicting a 25 basis point increase[3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December surged to approximately 70% following recent comments from officials[3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has significantly raised Baidu's target price to $188, indicating a fundamental shift in the company's investment narrative from a traditional search advertising company to an AI infrastructure provider, driven by the sales of Kunlun chips and GPU computing demand, with cloud business revenue expected to grow by 61% by 2026 [1][3]. Revenue Growth and Projections - Baidu's Kunlun chip revenue is projected to surge from approximately RMB 1.3 billion in 2025 to RMB 8.3 billion in 2026, marking a sixfold increase [4]. - The company's core revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projections for 2026 showing a core revenue of RMB 33.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% [5]. Cloud and AI Infrastructure - Baidu's cloud business is anticipated to enter a phase of AI-driven, GPU-intensive growth starting in 2025, with AI cloud revenue accounting for about 25% of Baidu's core revenue [8]. - The GPU computing revenue is expected to double by 2026, with Q3 GPU leasing subscription revenue growing by 128% year-on-year [8]. Advertising Business Outlook - Despite rapid expansion in AI marketing services, Morgan Stanley remains cautious about Baidu's advertising business, forecasting a 7% decline in core advertising revenue by 2026 [10]. - Traditional search advertising revenue is projected to continue facing double-digit year-on-year declines, while AI-native marketing services are expected to grow by 55% in 2026 [9]. Asset Impairment and Profitability - The RMB 16 billion asset impairment in Q3 is expected to have a significant positive impact on Baidu's core profitability for 2026-27, reducing annual depreciation expenses by approximately RMB 8 billion [11][12]. - This strategic impairment is aimed at aligning the company's asset base with its revenue-generating capabilities, focusing on high-performance computing assets like GPUs [13]. Valuation Methodology - Morgan Stanley has shifted its valuation approach from a blended P/E ratio to a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, estimating the total advertising business at $12 billion and the cloud business at $34 billion, leading to a target price of $188 [13].

Summary of Baidu's Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Baidu - **Date**: Q3 2025 Earnings Call Key Points Industry and Business Performance - **AI Cloud Business**: Baidu's AI cloud business showed strong growth with subscription revenue increasing by 128% year-over-year, indicating robust market demand for AI products and solutions [2][4][3] - **Total Revenue**: In Q3 2025, Baidu reported total revenue of 312 billion RMB, a decrease of 7% year-over-year [15][16] - **Online Marketing Growth**: Despite the overall revenue decline, online marketing revenue grew by 21% driven by the AI cloud business [2][16] AI and Technology Developments - **Apollo Autonomous Driving**: The Apollo project achieved significant progress with a 212% year-over-year increase in operational permissions, expanding to 22 cities globally [2][6] - **Ernie 5.0 Model**: The newly released Ernie 5.0 model reached world-class levels in understanding and creative writing, enhancing user engagement and decision-making [17][4] User Engagement and Marketing Innovations - **User Activity**: Baidu's app reached 708 million monthly active users, with a 1% year-over-year increase, and daily usage time per user grew by 2.3% [2][14] - **Digital Humans in Marketing**: Approximately 30,000 advertisers utilized digital agents for ad spending, showcasing the effectiveness of AI in enhancing marketing strategies [2][8] Financial Metrics - **AI Cloud Revenue**: AI cloud revenue reached 62 billion RMB, a 21% increase year-over-year, with AI infrastructure revenue growing by 33% [3][15] - **Operating Costs**: Operating costs were reported at 183 billion RMB, a 12% increase year-over-year, while R&D expenses accounted for 19% of core business revenue [16] Future Outlook - **Expansion Plans**: Baidu aims to continue expanding its AI-driven services and enhance its global presence, particularly in autonomous driving and AI cloud services [10][22] - **Investment in AI**: Over 100 billion RMB has been invested in AI technologies, with plans for continued investment to improve operational leverage and profitability [30] Additional Insights - **User Behavior Changes**: There has been a significant increase in user interactions, with dialogue rounds increasing by approximately five times, indicating high acceptance of new features [19][20] - **Asset Impairment**: The company conducted asset impairments to align its portfolio with current AI computing demands, improving its asset base for future growth [28][29] Conclusion Baidu's Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted strong growth in AI cloud services and autonomous driving, despite a decline in overall revenue. The company is focused on leveraging AI technologies to enhance user engagement and drive future growth, with significant investments planned in the AI sector.

Core Viewpoint - Baidu's Q3 2025 financial report highlights significant growth in AI business, with total revenue reaching 31.2 billion yuan and core revenue at 24.7 billion yuan, marking a substantial transformation in its revenue structure driven by AI initiatives [1][4][23] Financial Performance - The Q3 report reveals Baidu's first disclosure of AI business revenue, showing an overall year-on-year growth exceeding 50% [1] - Baidu's total investment in AI since March 2023 has surpassed 100 billion yuan [1] - Following the positive earnings report, Citigroup raised Baidu's target price, leading to over 2% gains in both Hong Kong and US stock markets [4] AI Business Segmentation - For the first time, Baidu's Q3 report separates AI revenue into three segments: AI Cloud, AI Applications, and AI Native Marketing Services, providing clearer insights into its product valuation logic [5] - AI Cloud revenue grew by 33% year-on-year, with AI high-performance computing subscription revenue surging by 128% [5][8] Market Leadership - Baidu Smart Cloud has maintained its position as the leading AI public cloud provider in China for six consecutive years, with significant adoption among state-owned enterprises and financial institutions [8] - The AI Applications segment generated 2.6 billion yuan in Q3, primarily through a subscription model, contributing to stable revenue [8] Product Innovations - The GenFlow 3.0 upgrade allows users to generate and edit documents using simple commands, enhancing user engagement [9] - AI Native Marketing Services saw a remarkable 262% year-on-year revenue increase, driven by digital human and intelligent agent technologies [10] Core Business Transformation - Baidu's search business has undergone a radical AI transformation, with AI-generated content accounting for nearly 70% of mobile search results [12] - The introduction of the Wenxin Assistant has significantly increased user engagement, with a fivefold increase in dialogue rounds and over 10 million daily active users [12] Autonomous Driving Growth - The "Luobo Kuai Pao" autonomous driving service recorded 3.1 million rides in Q3, a 212% increase year-on-year, with significant global expansion [13][16] - Baidu has achieved key milestones in autonomous driving, including obtaining testing licenses in Dubai and commercial operation permits in Abu Dhabi [16] Competitive Advantages - Baidu's AI growth is supported by a comprehensive stack of technologies, including chips, large models, and cloud services, differentiating it from competitors [20] - The latest Kunlun chips and Wenxin models are positioned to meet the demands of large-scale AI applications, enhancing Baidu's competitive edge [21] Future Outlook - Baidu's Q3 results reflect the effectiveness of its long-term strategy, demonstrating that AI can generate sustainable revenue and profits [23] - The company is exploring diversified shareholder return methods, including a stock buyback plan that has already repurchased 2.3 billion USD worth of shares [23] - The global AI market is expected to grow rapidly, with significant opportunities in large models, autonomous driving, and AI cloud services [27][28]

Group 1: Global Market Trends - Global stock markets experienced a significant decline, termed "Black Tuesday," with the Nikkei 225 index dropping 3.22%, marking its largest single-day drop since April, closing below 49,000 points. The KOSPI index fell by 3.32%, led by declines in chip stocks [1][3] - Gold and silver prices also plummeted, while Bitcoin fell below $90,000 for the first time in seven months, erasing all gains made in 2025 over the past month [2] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks opened lower and continued to decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing its first three consecutive days of decline since mid-September [3] Group 2: Economic Factors - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has cooled, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December now below 50% according to the CME FedWatch Tool [4][5] - Japanese government bonds faced significant selling pressure, with the 10-year bond yield rising above 1.75%, nearing its highest level since 2008. This increase in yield is closely linked to global liquidity and capital flows [6] Group 3: AI Market Concerns - There are growing concerns about a potential AI bubble, particularly ahead of Nvidia's upcoming earnings report, which follows a previous strong performance but resulted in a significant stock price drop [7][8] Group 4: Chinese Market Outlook - UBS forecasts a prosperous year for the Chinese stock market in 2026, driven by favorable factors including innovation. The MSCI China Index is projected to reach a target of 100 by the end of next year, indicating a 14% upside from current levels [10] - Earnings per share for Chinese companies are expected to grow by 10% in 2026, supported by measures against "involution" and a decrease in depreciation expenses. The focus remains on internet, hardware technology, and brokerage sectors, while high-dividend stocks are being removed from the watchlist [11] Group 5: Baidu's AI Revenue - Baidu reported a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan for Q3 2025, with core revenue at 24.7 billion yuan. The company disclosed its AI business revenue for the first time, showing a year-on-year growth of over 50% [12] - AI cloud revenue grew by 33%, while AI application revenue reached 2.6 billion yuan, and AI native marketing service revenue surged by 262% to 2.8 billion yuan [12]