AI Scaling Law

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Nvlink的国产替代:华为Unified Bus背后的思考
半导体行业观察· 2025-10-11 01:27
公众号记得加星标⭐️,第一时间看推送不会错过。 Unified Bus 的协议文档终于发布了。协议最初的设计大多数是四五年前的工作了,我也有两年 多没有继续做网络互联方面的工作,但今天读到这本 500 多页的文档,还是倍感亲切。 与大多数协议文档一样,UB 文档介绍了 Unified Bus 协议的大量细节,但很少涉及它设计背后 的思考。作为曾在早期参与 UB 项目的一名小兵,介绍一些我个人的思考。今天产品化的 UB 可 能与我们当年的设计有诸多不同,因此不要把本文作为权威指南。当成段子看就行了。 为什么要做 UB 要理解 Unified Bus (UB) 诞生的必然性,我们必须回到一个计算机体系结构中的根本性矛盾:总线 (Bus)与网络(Network)的割裂。 长久以来,计算机世界被这两种截然不同的互联范式划分为一个个孤岛。 在孤岛内部(例如一台服务器或一个机箱内),我们使用总线技术,如 PCIe 或 NVLink。它们是为 紧耦合系统设计的,设备间共享着统一的物理地址空间,通信延迟可以做到纳秒级,带宽极高。这是 性能的天堂,但这个天堂的疆域极其有限——总线的物理距离和可连接的设备数量都受到严格限制。 在 ...
炮轰黄仁勋,决裂奥特曼,1700亿美元估值背后,硅谷最不好惹的AI狂人
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-30 12:24
Core Insights - Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, has transformed the company into a major player in the AI field, driven by personal experiences and a commitment to accelerate technological advancements [1][5][10] - Anthropic is negotiating a funding round of $3 billion to $5 billion, potentially raising its valuation to $170 billion, reflecting strong investor interest in AI [3][74] - The company has seen rapid growth in annual recurring revenue (ARR), increasing from $1.4 billion in March 2025 to nearly $4.5 billion by July 2025 [5][61] Company Overview - Anthropic was founded during the COVID-19 pandemic with a mission to create advanced language models while establishing safety protocols [49][52] - The company has raised nearly $20 billion in funding, including $8 billion from Amazon and $3 billion from Google, indicating strong investor confidence [52][75] - Anthropic's strategy focuses on selling AI technology to enterprises, which has proven lucrative and has attracted a diverse client base, including major corporations like Pfizer and United Airlines [58][59] Financial Performance - Anthropic's revenue has surged, with projections indicating a rise from $0 to $100 million in 2023, and from $1 billion to an estimated $4.5 billion in 2025 [61][66] - Despite high revenue growth, the company is facing significant losses, projected to be around $3 billion for the year, raising questions about the sustainability of its business model [62][66] - The average spending of enterprise clients has increased fivefold, showcasing the growing demand for Anthropic's AI solutions [61] Market Position and Competition - The AI industry is experiencing intense competition, with new models emerging that challenge established players, such as the DeepSeek R1 model, which is priced significantly lower than competitors [70][71] - Anthropic's models are designed to maintain a competitive edge in specific domains, particularly in programming, where early adoption can lead to substantial advantages [69] - The company is also focused on improving the efficiency of its models to reduce operational costs, which is critical for long-term viability [65][66] Future Outlook - Amodei emphasizes the need for rapid development in AI technology, with plans to accelerate the release of new models [77] - The company is investing in research to ensure AI systems align with human values and goals, addressing potential safety concerns as models become more advanced [82][86] - Anthropic's commitment to understanding AI's internal workings and ensuring its responsible use is a key part of its strategy moving forward [85]
AI Agent 摩尔定律:每7个月能力翻倍,带来软件智能大爆炸
海外独角兽· 2025-04-11 11:03
AI Agent 领域也存在 scaling law,甚至还在加速。 2022 年 ChatGPT 刚发布时能够实现的代码任务差不多等同于人类耗时 30s 的任务,到今天, AI Agent 已经能够自主完成需要人类花费一个小时的 coding 任务。"任务长度"是一个相当直观地测量 AI Agent 能力变化的标准。 编译:haozhen 编辑:Siqi AI 独立研究机构 META 的数据分析发现,Agent 能够完成的任务长度正以指数级增长,大约每 7 个 月翻一倍,预计 2029 年 Agent 能够完成时长为 1 个工作月的任务。 有意思的是,最近这一趋势甚至还在加速,2024-2025 年 Agent 能完成的任务长度约每 4 个月翻一 倍,如果这种更快的趋势持续下去,Agent 可能在 2027 年就能完成长达一个月的任务。 本文是对 META、Forethought 和 AI Digest 研究对于 agent scaling law 的整理编译。AI 研究人员们认 为,AI scaling law 的终局是 AI agent 自主开发 AI agent,到了那个时候我们就会进入软件智能爆炸时 ...